Looking at % of deaths is confusing, as it contains too many variables, but here it is for England:
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You can see the 90+ group start to fall, while the "younger" age groups rise, as the effects of the vaccine wont be apparent yet.
3 things:
Hasnt London the lowest uptake on vaccines?
Hasnt London a lower average age than other regions?
% deaths isnt a great way of measuring things.
The effect in London could be less due to the demographics.
@Tired Thank you for those graphs. It is good to see some other analysis on the issue.
I also see a clearer trend with males when comparing Male and Female death data as per these two graphs.
Cases to Death rates
Also known as the CFR is falling, but there may also be confounding effects - case acquisition for example, not to mention lag (you need to plot cases to deaths two weeks later). Dying is an unequivocal endpoint that is internally consistent.
There is an effect, but also remember there is already increasing population immunity which may (big may) have an effect on the faster recorded rate of epidemic decline in this lockdown.
For all those males out there, some cold hard facts on mortality. The proportion who die in the 75-84 age range is about the same as that for 85+ (30% in each group). For females i am afraid that about 28% are in the 75-84 group and 47% in the 85+ group. It's tough being male and there is a reason why the nursing homes are full of old ladies.
Well I’m off to a buy a shotgun, 1000 rounds of buckshot and a house in the middle of nowhere.
What is needed is a graph for each age group plotting vaccinated people vs unvaccinated.
We will have to wait for somebody in government to create the analysis...
Well at least there's someone in Europe who can't get enough AZ vaccine. She really doesn't do irony does she.
not to mention lag (you need to plot cases to deaths two weeks later)
Yep, those figures have a 2 week lag between cases and deaths
There is an effect, but also remember there is already increasing population immunity which may (big may) have an effect on the faster recorded rate of epidemic decline in this lockdown.
Fair point.
Its been decreasing across all age groups over that period, but its more pronounced in the 90+ age group.
Lots of variables to consider, but all of the numbers are going in the right direction at the moment.
It'll be interesting to see the effects of Schools going back over the next week or so.
We will have to wait for somebody in government to create the analysis…
They have:
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https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Ah, I was not clear.
Using the headings from that table and just looking at total.
For example, one analysis is:
Of the 94.8% of the population aged over 80 who HAD the vaccine, what % have died of covid in March
Of the 5.2% of the population aged over 80 who DID NOT HAVE the vaccine, what % have died of covid in March
The expection is that a much lower % of people died of covid in March who had the vaccine.
In order to do this, it might need a team working across departments to pull all the raw data together and merge it. This team might not exist.
I found this BBC article on vaccine side effects interesting
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56375307
The expection is that a much lower % of people died of covid in March who had the vaccine.
In order to do this, it might need a team working across departments to pull all the raw data together and merge it. This team might not exist.
The NHS have the data and are already be looking at it.
I'm sure it'll be one of the top questions that Chris Whitty will want answering.
Its probably too soon to be publishing that data reliably.
Plus when you have 95%+ uptake its going to be hard to find a sample of people who havent had the vaccine, once you strip out the people who cant have it due to other health issues.
TiRed, I hate to put you on the spot, so feel free to decline. I wrote a long summary from my PoV on this French agency report on the AZ vaccine, and of the (my!) interpretation of the facts as I see them.
Don't waste time reading it if you don't have it.....
The report suggests a 0.66% chance of side effects, that's round numbers 7/1000.
Of these 7, 5/1000 will have mild / temporary effects* and 2/1000 = 1/500 will have a 'not mild/temporary' effects.
On one hand the 1/500 seems wrong, we aren't seeing the same level - what would you speculate these sorts of effects would be at this level?
* It's also occurred to me - they only saw mild/temporary effects at the rate of 5/1000 which is conversely way lower than we are - almost everyone I know that has had AZ vaccine has had some sort of 'mild-temporary' effect ranging from a sore arm through to a couple of days of flu like symptoms.
How come the French study seems to have way less occurrence of mild but way more of more than mild?
It HAS to be something to do with reporting / translation doesn't it, that discrepancy compared to UK experience isn't credible?
The on the spot bit - As one of the very reliable sources - does this FR info in any way put you off receiving the AZ vaccine?
She really doesn’t do irony does she
It's really curious unless she's just politicking. They didn't want to place their bet and get manufacturing facilities going before approvals were granted, so now she's suggesting that a third country that did, should compensate for that unwillingness to speculate, now that it's being looked at as a public health emergency rather than a procurement problem?
I guess we know what the EMA are going to say tomorrow then! 😄
They didn’t want to place their bet and get manufacturing facilities going before approvals were granted
There is absolutely some truth in this. But also remember where “our” initial vaccine supplies were produced when we approved the first vaccines early.
She really doesn’t do irony does she
Never underestimate the power of incompetence. See Von der Leyden's part in the G36 rifle fiasco - TLDR, she took H&K to court and lost utterly.
She's almost incompetent enough to be in the Johnson cabinet.
She's made a career of moving up before her mistakes catch up with her but when you're President of the European Commission there's nowhere else to go and COVID moves faster than normal politics so her incompetence is being exposed
How come the French study seems to have way less occurrence of mild but way more of more than mild?
Hyperchondria 😉 . Truth is gradation is a subjective thing for most AEs. One persons serious might be another moderate (there are fixed scales for objective measures and CTCAE cancer are often used for things like blood cell counts).
Adverse events due to immune activation are common (e.g., headache), severity may be variable and subjective. Very rare events are just that, very rare. COVID is, however, rather common. I will be rolling up my sleeve for the first vaccine on offer at Windsor Racecourse next week if there is a spot free.
No more 1st jabs once the over 50s are done? For a while anyway. Congratulations to those that got under the line...
I think it’s a case of vaccinate the leavers and sod the remainers...:-)
...the Government's Vaccines Task Force have now notified us that there will be a significant reduction in weekly supply available from manufacturers beginning in the week commencing 29 March, meaning volumes for first doses will be significantly
constrained. They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply.
From today, the supply constraint means vaccination centres and community pharmacy- led local vaccination services should close unfilled bookings from the week commencing 29 March and ensure no further appointments are uploaded to the National Booking System or Local Booking Systems from 1 to 30 April.
I think it’s a case of vaccinate the leavers and sod the remainers…:-)
Luckily they didn't get all us old fogey's names on the Remain marches! 🙂
Looks like the moves to throw Hancock under the bus for the botched response to COVID have started
Something something I told you that we and Europe didn’t have enough manufacturing capacity to do this anywhere like as quickly as people hoped.
I suspect the British government and the MHRA knew this and that whoever was quickest to the mark would get a head start and avoid some of the supply constraints.
Another sunny upside to Brexit - we’re now a vaccine competitor to Europe as well. Prisoners dilemma at play.
Materials will be the next thing to be embargoed.
I'm surprised about the news regarding a vaccination shortage - especially when a massive ramp-up was reported only a couple of days ago.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56407251
^^^^
is that the sound of a bus coming.
jam bo. Aged 44 & 3/4
"Let's not prioritise vaccinating public facing workers, let's stick to doing this strictly by age, it'll keep things simple and fast"
So 50 something work at home IT professionals get the jab this weekend, and 40 something front line workers dealing with the public for months already are looking at the summer for their first jab. Slow ****ing hand clap.
It’s almost as if South Park is prophetic Kelvin. (See latest episode)
So 50 something work at home IT professionals get the jab this weekend, and 40 something front line workers dealing with the public for months already are looking at the summer for their first jab. Slow **** hand clap.
How do you easily work out whos a legitimate front line key worker and who isn't? Take a big bank for example who I work for, the bank made available a standardised letter to prove that whoever wanted to use it had a means to prove their kid can go into school during lockdown as they are "key workers". The intention was only those in the branches and other key staff who had to go into the offices to keep the servers running for example to use it.
I can assure you that there was a vast amount of workers who have been sat at home like I have since March last year and still used that front line worker letter to get their kid into school despite being able to home school them.
You can't distinguish whos an actual front line worker right now by job title in all instances, it'd be a nightmare to admin as every company will be different on their staffing approaches, not all branch workers will be in the branches for example.
I understand the intention to prioritise actual current front line workers and agree that should be the approach but the admin would be nightmarish.
34 year old part time supermarket worker here.... I take it I'm not going to be getting even my first dose until after summer then?
I wouldn't mind if all the boomers were able to **** off abroad and leave some campsite spots available this summer....unlikely though! Oh well, maybe I'll hammer the overtime and spend it all on ski trips in 2022!
Would we be so far ahead if we were still in the EU? Ursula von der Leyen ****ed up the rollout of the EU vaccination also EU countries are sitting on the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Whoever is driving the bus heading for Hancock is playing a blinder
"NHS sources privately blamed the task force for the shortage. It was originally set up by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy but recently transferred to Matt Hancock’s Department of Health and Social Care"
I’m surprised about the news regarding a vaccination shortage – especially when a massive ramp-up was reported only a couple of days ago.
Isnt the shortage referring to a batches (that have yielded lower volumes) due for delivery after the batches that are part of the ramp up?
Either that or Westminster trying to pull a fast one following the EU threats. Or some other general incompetence.
Sounds like a months delay. Can't see this was ever not going to happen. They seemed to forget that the second doses were required at some point!
When is the j&j jab due, and more importantly is that going to be made in the UK? (As the eu appear intent on keeping supplies over there in future, can't blame them either)
What's going on right now does give me concern that when the second rollout of vaccine is needed next autumn we won't be in the enviable position we are now. The EU will have more than caught up in production capabilities. Tensions between the UK and EU are likely to be worse rather than better and i can't but help think the UK will then be looking at the EU with envy as they roll out the modified vaccines to combat the new variants.
Competing with the EU over vaccines, the actual materials to make the vaccine etc is going to be an unpleasant awakening.
By luck or design we got a good start with the vaccines and the fact that even in a dilapidated, underfunded state we have the NHS (God bless it) but I don't see us being as fortunate when the sleeping giant next door awakens...
When is the j&j jab due
I think it’ll be Novavax before J&J, U.K. manufacturing and higher efficacy.
The Moderna one is approved but not delivered yet?
Following the news conference today that 75% of the population aged 70 to 84 have antibodies, I thought I would look at what has happened to deaths for that age group.
I am struggling to see a material impact yet.
I will definitely get a vaccine still when I get offered it, but I really hope this trend improves over the coming weeks.
All very worrying. 2021 going the way of 2020.
Hyperchondria
*Sudden flashback to reading Le Malade Imaginaire for A level French*
Todays news is disappointing, but supply problems were always likely to be an issue. We are a long way in front of where we originally expected to be. I guess it may potentially delay the timetable for the relaxation of restrictions.
It's not great news, but some of our glasses are a lot less than half full on here tonight. And I'm saying that as someone who had to go out for a ride this evening to clear the "**** me life is all a pile of steaming shite" thought from my head.
Would we be so far ahead if we were still in the EU?
For one we would have had influence over the decisions being made and may well have been able to persuade the EU to get ahead of the game in terms of manufacturing and for another there wouldn't have been anything stopping us doing our own thing in parallel anyway. So yes, and the rest of the EU may have been better off too. :Shakes head:
So yes,
As unequivocally as that?
Really?
At best I reckon you could say maybe. Take your EU tinted glasses off for a second..
FYI I voted Remain, but I despair of the way the EU has failed in their vaccine program. They’ve let their citizens down.
Would we be so far ahead if we were still in the EU? Ursula von der Leyen **** up the rollout of the EU vaccination also EU countries are sitting on the AstraZeneca vaccine.
They haven’t helped themselves that’s for sure - some of the rhetoric of late has been particularly inflammatory..
Well, it seemed they spent more time being too bureaucratic and try getting solidarity between the countries rather than acquiring vaccines and get a rollout in place.
FYI I voted Remain, but I despair of the way the EU has failed in their vaccine program. They’ve let their citizens down
Same. I don't know why you have the impression I think otherwise and you haven't articulated a counter to my suggestion that if we were still involved we could have influenced things for the better, and/or still done our thing in parallel?
But you know - that's just my opinion...
All rather academic now though. Still reeling from the news of a fast approaching vaccination date to be likely put back 6 weeks at best tbh. Was only remarking to a workmate today that over the past few days the Omni calculator was predicting my earliest possible vaccination date was getting closer by a day each time (ie the date reducing, not just the passage of time) then to hear all new bookings cancelled for a month. ****. 😕
Still reeling from the news of a fast approaching vaccination date to be likely put back 6 weeks at best tbh
Its not great that’s for sure. I’m sat here wondering if I’ll be able to see my friend before she dies of Pancreatic cancer. She has had a few bad steps this last two weeks.