Forum menu
Sorry to hear of your struggles @shinton 😔
Looking at today's figures....cases are up by 1000 compared to Tuesday, and up compared to the corresponding day last week too. Is it down to the mass testing in schools?
I went back in today to teach guitar after 51 weeks teaching remotely. It was fantastic, if a little strange!
I would imagine so. Look at the number of tests processed & it’s jumped by 30% the last 3 days. More you test, more you find. Nobody thought the gov.U.K. Number was every case in the U.K.
Thanks @Tom-B and good you are back in the classroom again. I've been out on the bike 3 out of the last 5 days so not all bad 😉
They are the same as last week, but to state they are rising again is correct. Lookat the North West on the map here...
https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
... and I suspect yes schools testing of millions of school kids adds to the case count.
Lets remember what TiRED said, its about admissions and deaths, not cases. Deaths are down today but we need to wait until the 22nd for admissions and mid April for evidentially related Deaths... which is right when the natural "circuit breaker" of half term happens.
I would imagine so. Look at the number of tests processed & it’s jumped by 30% the last 3 days. More you test, more you find. Nobody thought the gov.U.K. Number was every case in the U.K.
Is there are way of finding out the breakdown of tests into:
Workplace routine testing
Symptomatic walk-in and postal testing
and the recent addition of School compulsory testing
And the positive ratio of each?
@Shinton, there's some good information available out there for people affected by blood cancers mainly from lymphoma action or blood cancer uk. PM me info.
Is there are way of finding out the breakdown of tests into:
Workplace routine testing
Symptomatic walk-in and postal testingand the recent addition of School compulsory testing
And the positive ratio of each?
My understanding, certainly with the lateral flow tests they use at schools, is that they aren't directly counted in the reported case figures. If you test positive on the lateral flow test you are told to get a regular PCR test and that gets counted if positive?
MCTD - that wouldn't seem right in that they're including the lateral flow tests in the daily figures.
Unless there's some other explanation for the fact that in the last 24hrs 1.3mil tests were conducted but the PCR daily capacity is 770k.
If they're adding the lat flow tests into the daily figures you'd think they'd add the results too?
Then I was clearly mistaken for which I apologise.
They're certainly including LFT conducted in the daily 'overall number of tests carried out' figure. Does that mean that they are including LF positives in the positive test data? As MCTD says, everyone who tests positive is immediately sent to complete a PCR test, and my instinct would be that they wouldn't want the potentially lower accuracy of the LF test to pollute the data and mask any underlying trends at this point.
LF tests aren't being followed up by PCR tests in schools - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56349116
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England has a breakdown of positive test results by test type for England (for some reason the same info isn't available for the UK). You can also see from there that the positive test results figures for England are combined LF and PCR test results.
Each dot is one infection data point. There were 10 subjects followed for up to 35 years with serial serology. So across the four viruses people tended to be reinfected about every two and a half years, but with a long tail. I can’t see why this coronavirus will be any different, other than we can boost immunity if we have to between infections. With an annual or biannual vaccine.
Thanks for the reply, that's really interesting.
As MCTD says, everyone who tests positive is immediately sent to complete a PCR test
As I posted a few posts back schools are not accepting kids back even if they have a PCR negative result, they're not asking them to get one done its the parents who are doing it of their own accord.
That has to be a mistake. Why does a neg PCR not override what then becomes a false positive LFT?
As I posted a few posts back schools are not accepting kids back even if they have a PCR negative result, they’re not asking them to get one done its the parents who are doing it of their own accord
That later part’s not true at Jnrs school, the school is insisting pupils return home and receive full tests if the LTF shows positive. The Bering ramming that point home via email letters and text for the last 2 weeks.
In the minor milestones of Covid - completed lap one of the long haul. I think there's a few of us tick over into year two around now. 12 months ago I thought it was going to be isolation for seven days then merciless mickey taking when I got back into the office. 12 month fitness rollercoaster with a random symptom bingo card and redundancy wasn't exactly where I thought I would be.
Gov Policy:
If Lateral flow test positive administered in school, you cannot overturn it with a negative PCR.
If DIY at home, you can overturn with a negative PCR.
Logical? No, but it’s the rules.
12 month fitness rollercoaster with a random symptom bingo card and redundancy wasn’t exactly where I thought I would be.
Certainly been a terrible year for many, and I hope things improve for you on all fronts in the next few months.
I really hope that those of us who have been, and continue to be, fortunate enough to have missed the direct impacts of the virus will continue to support those who have been affected. Never imagined our relatively affluent little village would be running it's own food bank.
That later part’s not true at Jnrs school, the school is insisting pupils return home and receive full tests if the LTF shows positive.
Same here for my kids' schools.
Happy to be corrected on the use of unconfirmed LFT in the overall data. At least they've been doing it all along and separating them from those confirmed later by PCR.
Thanks flatpack!
I use the gov dashboard everyday, and hadn't noticed changing nation/region on the Cases page brings up interesting extra analysis, like the age demographic heat map.
Certainly looks like the case increase this week due to massive use of LF in schools, no surprise there really. Although ~1000 LF cases per day, and an extra million or so tests done per day, thats pretty much the false positive rate.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-analysis-of-lateral-flow-tests-shows-specificity-of-at-least-999
Shinton and OAP I really hope you can find some answers and start recovering soon.
I had my jab last night - ironically at the conference centre adjoining AstraZeneca near Macclesfield. The experience was amazing. Although I do feel quite ropey today.
Annoyingly the lady who works in our local independent greengrocers says it her 'right' not to have the vaccination. She is 60 yrs of age and obese, really! She needs to read this thread.
The shop is so convenient for me as I loath supermarkets, but really considering spending money elsewhere.
Annoyingly the lady who works in our local independent greengrocers says it her ‘right’ not to have the vaccination. She is 60 yrs of age and obese, really! She needs to read this thread.
The shop is so convenient for me as I loath supermarkets, but really considering spending money elsewhere.
To be fair, it is her right not to have the vaccination, even if it seems like a daft decision. I suspect things will get more interesting when people start to realise that not having the vaccination will probably prevent them from travelling abroad and are forced to choose between their right to be stupid and their right to lie on a beach in southern Spain.
Sowerbutts in Glossop is good or the fruit and veg stall opposite Sainsburys in New Mills on Fridays and Saturdays 🙂
. I suspect things will get more interesting when people start to realise that not having the vaccination will probably prevent
them from travelling abroadthem from dying
I think enough folks will get it that I'm not personally bothered if a minority of idiots don't. And it may sound cold hearted but if they end up dying through their own stupidity then tough shit.
BWD - indeed she has the right. But I don't want to be near her as she deals with hundreds of customers per week, in a fairly confined space. She hates masks, so wears a plastic visor.
Yes am considering the New Mills Stall and the Windsor Castle pub in Mellor, as they have fruit and veg stalls in their carpark.
Edit - tpbiker - but it does affect our overflowing NHS service and that's a real reason to care imo.
Back last year we were talking about hopefully a 70% vaccine take up. We seem to be getting 90%+ so far, way higher than France for example , who apparently are known to be vaccine sceptics.
I've hit the wall again this week with anxiety. I think coming up on a year of all this now has definitely changed me. I've noticed my social anxiety is much worse now too. Last night I went shopping by myself in a fairly empty store and I was a wreck when I got back into my car. Friends are starting to talk and plan getting together at the end of the month and I'm already worried about seeing people in close quarters. Not for fear of catching the virus, just being around people. December was the last time I rode my bike with others and even thinking about that makes me feel a bit uneasy. But also, the constant news stream about variants and vaccine issues really saps any glimmer of hope out of me.
St colin Start small and build up the socialisation. Hopefully it will come naturally in time especially as the weather improves. Try to ignore the constant stream of doom and gloom news reports. We live in a very safe part of the world and you really are at very low risk of anything nasty happening. It's just that every tiny little thing is being picked up and broadcast as soon as it happens rather than us being blissfully unaware of stuff.
I'm quite worried actually about how this is going to affect people with anxiety, depression, OCD etc going forwards. Are the media going to report on every new bug or virus that arises anywhere in the world now and keep people on a constant state of nervous tension...
keep people on a constant state of nervous tension…
Maybe this is a deliberate tactic to get us to adhere to the rules? I understand some of what is reported is useful.
I think I have definitely developed a few new problems over the last year that I didn't have before. Many people will be the same I'm sure.
We (people who cycle for recreation) have an advantage here over most people. Meeting up in pairs, and later small groups, for some exercise, fresh air, fun and a bit of a chat is an ideal way to slowly move back into social meet-ups.
I think enough folks will get it that I’m not personally bothered if a minority of idiots don’t. And it may sound cold hearted but if they end up dying through their own stupidity then tough shit.
Pr*ck.
And it may sound cold hearted but if they end up dying through their own stupidity then tough shit.
If sufficient people take up the vaccine then the ones that don't but still get infected will likely get a dose that's not as deadly, and are more likely to survive. which is good news for everone.
I think enough folks will get it that I’m not personally bothered if a minority of idiots don’t. And it may sound cold hearted but if they end up dying through their own stupidity then tough shit.
You know, a more compassionate take would be that we should look at the misgivings that vaccine skeptics have and looking at ways of allaying their fears rather than being belligerently indifferent if they were to die. There are stats showing that ethnic minorities have a lower take-up of vaccines for example, which suggests there's cultural stuff going on, but your take is 'tough shit'? Nice attitude.
If sufficient people take up the vaccine then the ones that don’t but still get infected will likely get a dose that’s not as deadly
How does that work nickc? (Genuine question, not sarcasm).
@stcolin I’ve hit the wall again this week with anxiety.
You are not the only one. I think there are many, many folk who have similar anxiety and it is going to take some time for myself and mrs_oab to work it through. Plan at the moment is meeting with a very few friends and family, outdoors, in the garden, on bikes or a walk. Step by step.
We've even been chatting about a hesitancy over going south to see family - it is a 4 hour drive, we aren't sure about heading into houses or using public loo's etc, we certainly are not going to the cafe or pub with them...
I think the hills and rivers will be our sanctuary for another year.
Pr*ck.
kind of how i feel about anti-vexers* TBH, only difference is they are effectively contributing to more lockdowns and deaths than those who decide vaccination is going to benefit everybody far more damaging than somebody who looks down on those weak minded individuals who don’t trust vaccines despite the millions of doses administered so far.
*not those who cannot have it for medical reasons
I’ve hit the wall again this week with anxiety. I think coming up on a year of all this now has definitely changed me. I’ve noticed my social anxiety is much worse now too. Last night I went shopping by myself in a fairly empty store and I was a wreck when I got back into my car. Friends are starting to talk and plan getting together at the end of the month and I’m already worried about seeing people in close quarters. Not for fear of catching the virus, just being around people. December was the last time I rode my bike with others and even thinking about that makes me feel a bit uneasy. But also, the constant news stream about variants and vaccine issues really saps any glimmer of hope out of me.
I could have written that word-for-word right now so you're definitely not alone. I've had periods pre-covid where I've had issues and felt I'd hit rock-bottom a few times, this current situation has pushed me to new lows. No job (for the first time in my adult life), no big days on the bike, no driving to remote places, no camping trips, no life really. I really don't know what I'll be like when we get out the other side of this as it has definitely changed me. I wasn't exactly a social animal before all of this, coming out of it I've got a small list of friends and family I want to see but have absolutely no appetite for crowds or parties. If it wasn't for two things I can currently focus on right now it's 50/50 I'd still be here.
I fear the 'New Normal' won't be compatible with me!
I’ve noticed my social anxiety is much worse now too. Last night I went shopping by myself in a fairly empty store and I was a wreck when I got back into my car. Friends are starting to talk and plan getting together at the end of the month and I’m already worried about seeing people in close quarters. Not for fear of catching the virus, just being around people. December was the last time I rode my bike with others and even thinking about that makes me feel a bit uneasy.
I'd recommend starting soon, as the rest of the population ease into it.
e.g. meet one friend/household for drinks in their garden (once allowed, later this month), pick an empty time to go to a non-supermarket shop or cafe, while people are still (for the most part) mask wearing and keeping their distance.
Put it all off until the summer or later and its going to be much more of a culture shock than it is now as people will be in bigger groups and probably less contact adverse.
We (people who cycle for recreation) have an advantage here over most people. Meeting up in pairs, and later small groups, for some exercise, fresh air, fun and a bit of a chat is an ideal way to slowly move back into social meet-ups.
Very much this. I couldn't bring myself to go back to group riding when the original lockdown was lifted, and have only ridden with one or two mates since the pandemic started. I've no worries around using public loos etc, but no chance you'll see me inside a busy pub this year. Opticians appointment this morning has left me edgy and on edge.
These worries are quite widespread and will take time for people to find their own new comfort levels
I think enough folks will get it that I’m not personally bothered if a minority of idiots don’t. And it may sound cold hearted but if they end up dying through their own stupidity then tough shit.
If anyone gives a legitimate reason to not have a vaccine (which do exist) then I will respect their decision and care about them, freedom of choice and all that.
If someones only objections are based on provably and demonstrably false rumours that basically comes down to "I've formed my opinion, and will listen only to random people on the internet who agree with me" then I shall direct my empathy elsewhere, they are beyond help.
How does that work nickc? (Genuine question, not sarcasm).
Vaccines work by reducing the viral load, not by stopping transmission. So if a vaccinated person gets COVID then the virus they pass on will likely be less virulent (because of the vaccines effect on it) so even if the person that catches it from a vaccinated person is themselves not vaccinated, the virus they catch will be less deadly, and hopefully not have such a perilous effect on them.
I think people should make up their own minds as to whether they are vaccinated, I hope that the vast majority have it through good clinical evidence that's presented to them and persuasion by qualified and respectful conversation, that'll mean that those (in this free society) who chose not to have the vaccine will still be protected. This is a good thing to my mind.
Maybe this is a deliberate tactic to get us to adhere to the rules?
More likely a deliberate tactic to fill column inches.
I could have written that word-for-word right now so you’re definitely not alone.
+1 although I'm not quite as bad. I am nervous of being around people and shall avoid it for as long as possible.
If sufficient people take up the vaccine then the ones that don’t but still get infected will likely get a dose that’s not as deadly, and are more likely to survive.
I’m not convinced. Given that asymptomatic infections are transmissible, it’s not a given that a vaccinated person is not still infectious but asymptomatic. It’s reasonable but unproven. Coronaviruses have a long history of reinfection over years, despite boosts in immunity. We will see. There is little doubt we will see impressive falls in symptomatic infection and hospitalisations. At least in the next few months.
Fortunately, there will be approved medicines to prevent and treat those who will not, or importantly cannot be protected by vaccination. I view the combination of high take up, alternatives and non-mandated take up as only a good thing.
But I expect waning immunity and either natural or vacccinal regular boosters. Reinfection in studies has invariably been mild to asymptomatic. Again this is good news.
Only a week back and both my kids schools are quarantining classes already
😭😭😭
Pr*ck.
You really need to ask yourself who the real prick is, the guy who looks down on gullible conspiracy theorists, or the selfish idiots that will potentially cost lives by refusing a vaccination and spreading misinformation.
Obviously anyone who has a medical reason for not getting the vaccine is another matter altogether.
You know, a more compassionate take would be that we should look at the misgivings that vaccine skeptics have and looking at ways of allaying their fears rather than being belligerently indifferent if they were to die
Allay their fears how? There is plenty of evidence that the vaccines are safe. The experts tell us it's safe. I could tell cinnamon girl that my brother is on the uk's vaccine safety panel and that he has absolutely no doubts it's safe, both he and his wife have had it already. But her mind is clearly made up already, based on nonsense they've read online and very little scientific understanding. For people like that, like ayjay, I'll direct my empathy else where.