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From the guardian:
Brazil variant can evade 25% to 61% of protection got after original Covid infection, research suggests
What exactly do they mean by this and what are the implications?
ElShalimo
Full MemberAm I the only one who thinks that the Govt have done a poor job clearly communicating what the vaccine does and doesn’t do?
It’s 3 months since the first dose and over 20M doses have been administered yet there is some confusion.
I got mine this morning, people were saying things like "so good to get back to normal" so yep. We got two leaflets about side effects and a little chat which was really all the same but nothing in any of that about "it doesn't change any of the rules". Which everyone ought to know, but clearly lots of folks don't.
And frankly yes the Uk government messaging is a huge part of that. And now there's this unchecked "back to normal for summer"- music festivals and big events on, that sort of thing, assumptions of what will be happening months from now.
The vaccine rollout's been well done imo but the vaccine/ongoing covid messaging is right back to "all over by christmas"
What exactly do they mean by this and what are the implications?
Immune evasion is based on antibody titer - numbers of serum doubling dilutions that still stop viral growth. There is evidence of reduced titers with emergent strains. The effect is about 6-8x or three doubling dilutions at the moment. That doesn't mean NO protection, just theoretically less. There is little public data on AZ/Ox vaccine (only approved in UK remember), but plenty on the others here:
https://covdb.stanford.edu/page/susceptibility-data/
The y-axis is fold-change in titer (so a measure of resistance). To decode the strains; B.1.1.7 is UK, B.1.351 is SA and P1 is Brazil (they also include E484K for immune escape and N501Y for transmission independently). If you identify that the fold change for the Brazil strain is 15x, then 1) you read the plot properly 🙂 and 2) you noticed only one study is reported so far (they are updating daily).
Now does 15x less potent matter? That's four doubling dilutions (16x) and we don't really know the translation yet to clinical effects. If it were 150x, then I'd say it was proper escape. It is not (yet). Jury is still out. Hospitalisations and deaths in SA have been effectively nil in all clinical vaccine studies, so I am tempted to call no, still covered.
I got two leaflets, one with my letter and one after the vaccine, both of which say I still need to practice social distancing, wear a face mask, wash hands and follow the government guidance. Plus there's been all the guidance from the likes of JVT and his unforgettable analogies telling us it's not over yet. But I guess people in general don't read the leaflets, the media are clearly a law unto themselves, and people hear what they want to hear. Not sure what the answer is without restricting the press.
Thanks - that’s about the limit of my understanding ability, but I think it makes sense👍
This is significant Merck to produce J&J vaccine. It's a welcome development and this and other efforts can only reflect better on Pharma. We are conducting a combination antibody trial with a competitor. Like HIV, this will become more common.
Having good vaccines and medicines, and delivering them at GLOBAL scale are not necessarily the same thing. It does tend to force home the magnitude of the problem and the magnitude of the solution. At least I believe the solution is in sight.
all over by christmas”
2022 (maybe). How many years to move to rolling influenza-like vaccine production and distribution?
@TiRed and really sorry to put you on the spot on this!
Is there any data to show how infectious a 1 year old child is?
I know it's a vey specific question but it relates to a specific conundrum I have.
Thanks again.
I’ll be honest, I won’t be jabbed till April, so July/August for full protection to kick in. I’ve got at least the first half of the summer term to worry about the kids bringing it home from school, Scouts, Rangers, gymnastics, music centre, plus MrsMC working as a social worker. I really don’t want to get shot so close to Armistice Day, to use that metaphor.
You are in such a complex situation there, ive been very lucky though all this in that I had a good level of control at home because of circumstance. The only problem with that is that ive become massively risk adverse and no longer have real perspective.
MCTD, I wish you and your family all the very best mate.
A study in daycare showed that children who were positive were more likely to have been in contact with a family member who was positive. That might be effect and cause though, rather than cause and effect.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00024-9/fulltext
Since small children are effectively bags of germs, my suspicions are that they can pass it on, but biology suggests that they do not suffer serious morbidity. So in short, we don’t really know.
MCTD, I wish you and your family all the very best mate.
Thanks - not had as much immediate concern as you've been through.
Thanks TiRed, always thankful for the facts even if it's just that we don't know yet.
Has anyone heard of people house-swapping to get away from home for Easter? I'm sure it's not allowed and very naughty.
🤔
restrictions set to end 21/6/21
furlough extended until 31/9/21
........right, shall we run a book on the date for lockdown 4.0?
restrictions set to end 21/6/21
furlough extended until 31/9/21
……..right, shall we run a book on the date for lockdown 4.0?
It's an interesting one. Either they are being ultra cautious, which goes against type, or they don't think all restrictions will end in June, for whatever reason.
The Big English Experiment starts next week when schools go back, presumably any initial blip in numbers will start to be seen by the end of Easter ahead of the April 12th relaxation, or will any changes still be small then and maybe choked off by the 2 week Easter holidays?
Either they are being ultra cautious, which goes against type, or they don’t think all restrictions will end in June, for whatever reason.
Or its possible that demand will not fully return on 22nd June and people will take some time to get back into good old fashioned consumerism, so some companies won't be able to sustain their normal employment levels until a few months after restrictions (might) end.
Or would you rather they were all just thrown under a bus in the proud Tory tradition?
Expecting the economy to completely reopen when restrictions leave is unrealistic. Peoples habits & caution will take a while to change back at least.
Or would you rather they were all just thrown under a bus in the proud Tory tradition?
In what way was I suggesting we throw people under a bus, or even criticising the decision to extend furlough?
It makes perfect sense to allow the economy time to recover again and protect jobs while it does as you suggest. My surprise is that this government is planning ahead to enable that
I’ll be honest, I won’t be jabbed till April, so July/August for full protection to kick in. I’ve got at least the first half of the summer term to worry about the kids bringing it home from school, Scouts, Rangers, gymnastics, music centre, plus MrsMC working as a social worker. I really don’t want to get shot so close to Armistice Day, to use that metaphor.
The first jab will confer the bulk of the protection against serious illness and death, so by the end of April, beginning of May, hopefully, you should feel a fair bit more confident about some 'normal' activities. The thinking is that the second jab offers a bit more protection, but lengthens the amount of time you remain protected afterwards. Of course, hygiene/mask wearing will remain part of the solution for the foreseeable future.
I really don’t want to get shot so close to Armistice Day
I know what you mean though. My kids aren't going back to school until after Easter, when I'm hoping I'll have had the first dose.
*Edited because of stupidity.
Edited because of stupidity.
They'd have to delete 17 years of my posting history if that was a criteria 😂
TiRed
This might be daft but... Are other drugs not being made because alot of bio reactors are being used to manufacture C19 vaccine?
I went on a trip to Belgium to a tank manufacturer with some lads from Pfeizer. They were doing a pdi hand over. I was looling at buying some fermenting vessels
The cost and finish was mamy times greater than i was looking at so i can't imagine they have hundreds ofvtanks sitting idle most of the time, but then the batch yeild value was huge
Once a medication is licensed, you are obligated to maintain supply.
What all the effort focused on COVID is probably doing is delaying R&D. This is not just in obvious ways like manufacturing capacity for biologics, we are seeing shortages in materials used for sample collection and analysis in our clinical trials as the huge number of COVID vaccine/treatment studies are being prioritised.
I imagine there must have been some expansion in capacity though, which will be a good thing going forward?
Are other drugs not being made because a lot of bio reactors are being used to manufacture C19 vaccine?
Likely not - vaccines do not need so much protein, so a lot are made in disposable plastic bags rather than steel tanks. There is a shortage of these bioreactor bags of course.
Antibodies are made in steel bioreactors. There is some sharing of capacity with Amgen making Lilly's mAb and Regeneron having help from Roche (Genentech). This is what a wartime effort looks like. It's very welcome.
Vaccine day tomorrow for me. The call from the GP reception was interesting 'you are level 6 and you can have the vaccine if thats something you'd be interested in?
Strange way to put it. Try and stop me!
Peoples habits & caution will take a while to change back at least.
I know of plenty of people who are actually enjoying being forced off the consumerism treadmill, it's saving them a lot of money and giving them back time they didn't realise they were wasting.
I personally don't think the retail/consumer economy will get anywhere near recovering until we have had a full 12 months or more (ie at least a winter) without shops and attractions having to shut or be severely restricted. The recent fast (and late) announcements of lockdowns have taught people that it's prudent to keep some cash back each month as those 'rainy day' savings could well be needed very soon. Add in the threats to jobs and people will either save what they can for the next few years or be at the risk of being broke if their job goes or they get stuck on Furlough, which I can't see staying at 80% past this summer.
Like Boris' deluded thinking that all the office workers will return very soon, retail will be in for a shock when they realise that online sales are going to replace more and more trips to the shopping centre.
The recent fast (and late) announcements of lockdowns have taught people that it’s prudent to keep some cash back each month as those ‘rainy day’ savings could well be needed very soon. Add in the threats to jobs and people will either save what they can for the next few years or be at the risk of being broke if their job goes or they get stuck on Furlough, which I can’t see staying at 80% past this summer.
Of course the inverse is that everyone has bought all the online clothes, toys, and home pasttimes they can handle, and are gagging for pubs/restaurants, holidays, and just browsing round shops, and have made savings and are willing to spend them as soon as they can.
There is no one size fits all, so it is impossible to predict.
Hopefully we will be reopening on April 12th.
Before then we have to put Christmas products away and get all the summer goodies out.
Also have to clean and do a stock take.
We have 2 staff that are keen to get back to work.
Can we have them help us prepping the shop for reopening or are they only allowed back in on April 12th?
Have looked at the official stuff but this is really a grey area.
Are you not allowed to work, just not open to the public?
Can we have them help us prepping the shop for reopening or are they only allowed back in on April 12th?
Sounds like a task they cannot complete from home unless they have very long arms, so yes it is permitted.
On a serious note, how much notice do you need to do this, and how much notice will we get given if the dates change? Whats the wasted stock or lost trading cost for you if the dates did change?
From the guardian:
Brazil variant can evade 25% to 61% of protection got after original Covid infection, research suggests
What exactly do they mean by this and what are the implications?
It means that there's at least one journalist working for the Guardian who needs some Eng Lang revision.
On a serious note, how much notice do you need to do this, and how much notice will we get given if the dates change? Whats the wasted stock or lost trading cost for you if the dates did change?
Posted 26 minutes ago
Stock wise we really didn't buy a lot of purely Christmas stuff and what we have we will put away for next year. Even if we had ordered it ,it probably wouldn't have turned up.
It's "lady stuff "that needs sorting as obviously " that gift bag and tissue won't sell this time of year". I just look blankly on and do as I'm told. There's summer birthday cards and winter birthday cards.Then winter glass ware and stuff you'd use outside.So much that most of STW including me wouldn't understand. The ladies love swapping it all over ,we've been here for 27 years ,so I guess Mrs Zip knows what she is doing.
Even though we are shut the windows need to reflect mother's Day with a hint of Easter, then full on Easter ,then full on new stuff for reopening.
From the guardian:
Brazil variant can evade 25% to 61% of protection got after original Covid infection, research suggests
What exactly do they mean by this and what are the implications?
A better description from Imperial College London
The researchers found that the new P.1 lineage is growing rapidly in Brazil, is likely more transmissible than other variants, and may have the ability to evade protective immunity. The researchers estimate that the P.1 VOC is between 1.4–2.2 times more transmissible than non-VOC lineages. In addition, they estimate that the P.1 VOC evades 25-61% of protective immunity arising from infection with previously circulating variants. The exact trade-off between increased transmissibility and evading immunity is not currently known.
I've just had a letter asking me to book an appointment for my jab. Entered all my details and the nearest one the NHS website came up with was 10 miles away!
My GP surgery is only 2 miles away, Hospital is just over 2 and there are two more vaccination centres in less than 2 miles, one of which I can walk to in 15 minutes!
so, as per the letter I shall try again later in the week for a closer one. 🙄
We
are
not
worthy
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/02/dolly-parton-vaccine-moderna/
[ I’m not going to quote from that article … read it all, or watch the video. I’m off to build a shrine to Dolly now … ]
the nearest one the NHS website came up with was 10 miles away!
Depending where the letter came from, decides on where you're sent for a vaccine. It's not perfect, and I've seen your circumstances in other areas. It may be worth calling your GP and asking if you can have the jab more locally.
The Vanderbilt group Dolly Parton donated to identified and isolated the two monoclonal antibodies currently in testing by AZ. She’s done more than most. Great song too. I’ll get my wig out.
I’ll get my wig out.
After this latest lockdown, I have the moobs!
She has always done a lot of good work with her money, however much we may wonder at her success.
There seems to be 2 completely separate booking processes - either the GP phones you for an appt at the local GP led clinic - or you get a letter from the national system to book online at one of the big sites.
or you get a letter from the national system to book online at one of the big sites.
I got the letter yesterday, and was able to book first and second shots - first next Monday, then 27th May. Not at my nearest vaccination centre, as that is used for people contacted by their GP, but at one a few miles further away. Wondering if I'll confuse them by cycling there.
The Vanderbilt group Dolly Parton donated to identified and isolated the two monoclonal antibodies currently in testing by AZ
I know a few peoples heads that will explode at that sentence. Couple of NI comedians do a conspiracy theory podcast and the Vanderbilts are regularly discussed.
Go on Dolly!
Just tried phoning the 119 line and spoke to a very helpful lady, managed to get one that's less than a 20 minute drive away for 13th of this month. Happy Days! 👌🏻☺️
that’s less than a 20 minute drive away
so 10 miles then? 😉
Ha, slightly less! Winsford instead of a trip into darkest S-O-T 👍🏻
GRAEMEJONES -Glad you're sorted.
I also received an invitation yesterday. When I tried to book online it also was sending me miles away, when my nearest centre is a couple of miles (I can cycle to it easily), where all my neighbours have gone. However I tried your advice and the 119 chap can't book me in as it's so busy. He said try again tomorrow.
nickc - Our Dr surgery do not want people phoning them about this, as they are overwhelmed atm, which is understandable.
Yes there are 2 different booking systems and 2 different supply chains of vaccine. We’ve had dribs and drabs in primary care for a few weeks but more coming next week and the week after.
Most of my patients don’t want to travel to the mass vaccination centre which is 20 minutes drive, or any of the “local hubs” which are also 20 minutes drive. It may take longer before they get it from the practice but most are willing to wait.
Interesting stat I picked up last week regarding where the vaccines were being given. In the PCN which our practice is a member of, which covers 240000 population, as of last week 60000 first doses had been given, 52000 of these in primary care, 8000 at mass vaccination sites or hospitals. I imagined it would have been more at the mass sites but here in South Yorkshire it was a while before our big one opened so maybe different in the rest of the country.
I was led to believe that more of the younger fitter population would be invited to the mass vaccination sites and they would let us do the housebound, more unwell/less able to travel etc. Will be interested to see if the ratio changes.