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Are the scientists that appear on the national TV channels reliable?
Some of the repeat guests have been wrong about everything for a year, but still get booked. I’m afraid you need to look at their track records yourself to decide which ones are reliable… the TV channels vet for interestingness and availability… not for the reliability of information provided.
Kelvin - that's really interesting. I've been following Chris Smith (the naked scientist) and I quite like Jason Leitch (I think he's the Scottish equivalent of our English health minsiter. They both seem really genuine and know their stuff.
Where as others will hear Sunetra Gupta on yet another TV news broadcast and think, “that’s a reasonable alternative view of this”, despite being wrong so often as regards current levels of community immunity and the protection that affords us.
The video where Campbell goes into the enduring immunity of SARS1 survivors to covid-19 is, I’m pretty sure, this one:
But do you have a link to a study or similar? I’m not wading through opinion pieces on YouTube, if there’s evidence for SARS1 exposure giving immunity to this coronavirus, rather than just a reasonable assumption/hunch, I’d like to read it. It could be used to infer that our worldwide vaccine rollouts over the next 18 months will help protect us from future novel coronavirus, and that would be something positive to take from all this.
In all honestly, I’d prefer to hear modest, even slightly pessimistic assessments which are proven to be so, rather than false optimism that gets dashed within weeks.
Anyone who has worked in retail or sales will know of the saying " Under-promise, Over-deliver." It's exactly what the govt need to be doing right now. Tell us they may be able to open up the pubs by the end of May then when they are able to open a week or two earlier everyone's happy. Tell us they'll be open by Easter but then have to delay it until May bank holiday and everyone will be annoyed and that will lead to people doing their own thing as the timescales are unreliable.
Are the scientists that appear on the national TV channels reliable?
I've been mostly thinking that Devi Shridar and Christina Pagel sound like they are talking sense. Probably other people have a different take?
Just had my (Pfizer) jab - 61 and no specific health issues, so I'm guessing that in this part of London they ran out of old people to vaccinate?
But do you have a link to a study or similar? I’m not wading through opinion pieces on YouTube
There are links to his sources below the video.
Edit: I can't remember whether he says that there is actual cross immunity or whether it's simply that SARS-1 survivors were still demonstrating T-Cell response 17 years after initial infection with the inference that Cocvid-19 may do similar. Presumably the effectiveness of that against reinfection is complex and may be rendered irrelevant by variations.
I’ve been mostly thinking that Devi Shridar and Christina Pagel sound like they are talking sense.
I agree entirely. But only after looking into both of them and the evidence they cite. Others, repeatedly wrong and misusing evidence (in my opinion), appear just as often, and people will often pick and choose who to listen to based on what fits their views and hopes. This is where the media are falling us... they get experts on to reflect "balance", ignoring that they are re-inviting guests on even if they have not only been proven wrong, but refuse to reflect on where they have been wrong and amend their "opinion" accordingly.
There are links to his sources below the video.
I skimmed those, and could only find what I'd read elsewhere, that sars-cov-1 exposure resulted in short longevity of an antibody response, and long term Tcell response. Many people think/hope that the Tcell response would offer protection for sars-cov-2... but I still haven't seen a single study showing that is the case. And I'd love to, as it could well suggest that a successful worldwide response to sars-cov-2 will help us avoid a future pandemic caused by the next similar naval coronavirus.
Particularly as pubs in April seems to be outdoors?
I'm happy with that if they extend no smoking to the beer gardens.
God... a decent pint or two... with people we don't live with.. in a beer garden... can we hope?!?! Dream?!?!
🤞🏻
the next similar naval coronavirus
I meant "novel", of course.
🛳🚢
I found Devi Shridar actually a bit of a doommonger in the early days, she has lightened up considerably now, maybe somebody had a word.
I guess it’s a bit like asking a pilot their opinion on how to run an airline...
I found Devi Shridar actually a bit of a doommonger in the early days
Interesting.
Check out this article from March 2020... bang on the money if you ask me...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/23/britain-covid-19-head-start-squandered
It was probably from watching her interviews on the TV, tbh.
Was it part of a "balanced" package, with someone being all up beat about how everything would be over by the summer (2020) and that half us were already immune and that would result in everything being in hand just around the corner? Hard not to sound like a "doommonger" when explaining the mistakes we were making early on, and where the dithering, delays, false assumptions and lack of leadership and planning could be taking us (and we now know did).
enduring immunity of SARS1 survivors to covid-19 is, I’m pretty sure, this one:
Our antibody, VIR-7831, was selected from a SARS1 survivor who was infected in 2003. The antibody cell line was taken from a blood draw 10 years later. Whether such levels are protective or just ready for a prime when SARS-CoV2 comes along is another matter. Previous antibodies against the other coronaviruses are cross-reactive but not protective. I posted the Cell paper a few days ago.
Are the scientists that appear on the
national TVSTW channels reliable?
I don't do meeja (work forbids), but I think my track record has been pretty much bang on so far. But then I am not fond of making bold claims early in an absence of solid information. I have also drawn heavily on what is known for other coronaviruses in both animals and humans. @thecaptain has a modelling method, that frankly, puts the PHE to shame. So yes, I think the information here has been reliable.
And for the record, everything I have posted has been using information in the public domain. Those are the rules. But there is a LOT of information in the public domain 🙂
@TiRed, never have questioned your reliability at all. In fact your posts are the only thing keeping me sane at the moment and I’m sure 99.5% of STW would agree.
I can’t remember whether he says that there is actual cross immunity or whether it’s simply that SARS-1 survivors were still demonstrating T-Cell response 17 years after initial infection with the inference that Cocvid-19 may do similar.
A good edit. Yes, lots of people are inferring from long term TCell response for sars1 that the same will be true of patients who have come into contact with sars2. But that is very different to the claim that people exposed to sars1 have protection against sars2… which I’d love to be true (because of what it means in terms of being ready for future coronavirus pandemics) but I don’t think the evidence is there.
Presumably the effectiveness of that against reinfection is complex and may be rendered irrelevant by variations.
That’s the big difference, compared to sars1, isn’t it… the big unknown… as we have enough people playing host to the new virus to allow troubling variations to develop… but so far everything we have to throw at COVID-19 works (even if to a reduced extent) with the variants… and research hasn’t come to a halt… better still will be coming in the next 12 months.
So yes, I think the information here has been reliable
Yes thank you and others for your contributions - this is my first port of call for informed balanced comment.
Presumably the effectiveness of that against reinfection is complex and may be rendered irrelevant by variations.
Reinfection by the four other coronaviruses is common. Timing is about every 24 months in adults (more frequent in children). I really can't see why this new virus will be any different. Severity of reinfection will, naturally, wane with exposure. Vaccination may be useful for priming immunity (and providing first exposure to the spike protein), particularly in the elderly, similar to influenza.
Yearly vaccination. At least for a few years. You’ve been calling that since the start of this thread I think TiRed. Nothing yet suggests you are likely to be wrong. The general public still don’t get that though… do they. Are we (the general public, not those lucky enough to be reading this thread) well served, as regards information and expectation setting? The answer has to be no.
Had my jab a couple of hours or so ago, mine is the Astra Zenica one. I’m 67, and I was very surprised when informed I was eligible and given a time earlier in the week, but on the local tv news last night the numbers of those given a vaccination in the top two age groups was about 99%, so they’re really hitting targets and are able to get going on the 60-70 age group.
So far not even an achy arm, unlike my last flu jab, but it might show up later.
Lots of areas on 65-69 age group currently. Good isn’t it?!?
Kinda interesting. And I imagine the method of calculating is blunt at best.
But the Omni Calculator site now has my estimated vaccination date consistently sooner in Scotland than if I select England.
I'd imagine it's at least partly because they have the percentage of take up higher for England?
I think we need to have a whip round for @TiRed and get him a few beers!
I had some nice news recently hearing a few family members back in NI have received their first jabs. Can't wait to see them soon, whenevee that is, and have a good catch up.
I’d imagine it’s at least partly because they have the percentage of take up higher for England?
The Scottish rate of jabbing has been higher this week than certainly England, and maybe Wales, but this is partly because they have been closing the gap that had developed - still a bit behind, but not by much now England seems to have slowed as some areas seem to be sticking to the upper tier where there are relatively few to vaccinate now the target has been largely met so their rates have dropped. Rates may well take off again next week once the target date is passed.
Had my jab a couple of hours or so ago, mine is the Astra Zenica one. I’m 67, and I was very surprised when informed I was eligible and given a time earlier in the week,
I'm 60 and getting mine on Wednesday in Chester. No underlying conditions that would put me on an at risk list.
My 24 year old daughter had hers this week. She's asthmatic with a seasonal wheeze in spring but nothing serious however she has been prescribed had asthma meds within the past year which might have qualified her
Dr Campbell getting a bit emotional about new study on Vit D. I've been taking it for the past 9 months suggest everyone reading this does the same
Vaccination rates in England seem to have flattened off somewhat.
There are also warnings coming from Scotland that supplies are about to be constrained and that the current rate might drop so I guess any individual projected vaccination date should be viewed with some caution.
Dr Campbell getting a bit emotional about new study on Vit D. I’ve been taking it for the past 9 months suggest everyone reading this does the same
I’m also taking VitD… but those trials he cites don’t support doing so… they are about treating ill people, not as a preventative in well people. Plenty of treatments are of no use if you’re not ill. But as it’s harmless, why not? Especially in the dark months.
Have been taking vit D for the last two winters. Pulls also include zinc and various other good things.
The UK as a whole is doing really well with their vaccination programme.
I don't know if anyone here in the Vaterland who has been jabbed.
News on the Israeli vaccine roll out is interesting.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-results-ins-idUSKBN2AA0MS
The red tops have filled their home pages today with various predictions/leaks.
Schools on March 8th, along with outdoor meet-ups. Pubs in April with no substantial meal required and vaccine passports suggested again.
People may have noted my irritation with the mobs of pensioners ignoring all sensible advice on this side of the channel. The latest group to cause some eye rolling went off to Costa Rica. 20/22 of them tested positive, it's not known where they caught it but given the timing it's most probable they took it with them. Sixteen are still positve and still there, six of them occupying Costa Rican hospital beds of which two are in intensive care. Further comment from me might require moderation so I'll stop there.
Apologies for linking BFM, the nearest thing to the DM we have here.
That Israeli report is interesting but slightly confused me. Severe illness in those vaccinated has dropped by a third, but still struggling to constrain the UK variant, so I guess it's positive news against a challenging background.
If I read it correctly, the news that those vaccinated but infected have less virus to pass on is the real winner as far as reducing transmission and severity. My limited understanding of what I've read has always made me think that viral load must be a key factor in how ill someone gets.
People may have noted my irritation with the mobs of pensioners ignoring all sensible advice on this side of the channel. The latest group to cause some eye rolling went off to Costa Rica. 20/22 of them tested positive.
That doesn't surprise me at all going by the typical pensioner in the uk. Basically they know best, had it worst, no one can tell them what to do. Just a massive sense of entitlement. At the height of the summer lockdown a 75yr old husband and wife (husband has parkinsons) in my street decided to have a street party handing out drinks to who ever walked past.
Among the first fully-vaccinated group there was a 53% reduction in new cases, a 39% decline in hospitalizations and a 31% drop in severe illnesses from mid-January until Feb. 6, said Eran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel.
and importantly in the footnote...
Note: Israel imposed a third lockdown on Dec 27, 2020 and tightened it on Jan 8, 2021
Now take a look at cases, admissions and deaths in the UK over the same period. I am in no doubt that the vaccine will be having an effect. However this is a multivariate problem against a background of a very efficacious intervention (Lockdown). Data published from multiple groups shows that the neutralising titer against the UK strain using vaccine sera is about double - that's not a huge loss of potency (for the SA variant it is six times or more).
The fact is multiple interventions will have an effect, but teasing them apart requires a relaxation of one of them to see the protection afforded by the other. My suspicion is that there will be a rebound (it's a transmissible pathogen), but that deaths will not follow in the same way.
I too am seeing groups of elderly people (maybe not understanding that they can still spread this virus although they've had their first vaccination).
However yesterday we saw large groups of young families walking together and a group of youngsters obviously off to some party, or gathering hauling their bags of booze and snacks, cans of beer in hand. No 2m distancing. This was all at a local beauty spot in -7 windchill temperatures all the ponds and local canals are frozen over. We stupidly thought it would be quiet (rolls eyes).
Yes TiRed and some others on this thread are the people I get my 'need to know information from'. It's been invaluable.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/raves-arent-anti-lockdown-bristol-4985460
https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/10/ravers-deploy-suicide-rigs-as-they-defy-covid-19-lockdown-13570411/
https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/18977065.police-stop-illegal-rave-cardiff-tier-four-lockdown/
And many, many more. But hey, those pensioners eh?
Let’s not do this blaming of age groups again, please.
Exactly.
There's always going to be groups who are pushing the boundaries of appropriate. I don't think it's an age thing. It's more a case of big headlines but small numbers? Although it only takes ones super spreader event.
Edukator - I guess from numbers in hospital those pensioners had not been vaccinated?
Also have to ask, were their actions illegal in France and/or Costa Rica?
The bawbag maijd nawazz is back on his soapbox on lbc, bigging up the CRG (covid/rabid brexiteers with tiny dicks), I'm banned from the program for calling him a self publicising **** on air so perhaps someone else would like to call him up to express similar
See Raab is playing the bad doomladen politician so Boris can been seen to save the day.
That doesn’t surprise me at all going by the typical pensioner in the uk. Basically they know best, had it worst, no one can tell them what to do. Just a massive sense of entitlement. At the height of the summer lockdown a 75yr old husband and wife (husband has parkinsons) in my street decided to have a street party handing out drinks to who ever walked past.
Elderly neighbours down the road have restarted their book club because they've all had a vaccination.