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Aaaaaaaaaand Melbourne is back in lockdown.
More breeches of their hotel quarantine – 5 day lockdown for a huge area – very strict (same rules as the previous one by the looks of it).
I had a phone call yesterday with a work colleague currently locked in a quarantine hotel in Melbourne.
He has been on secondment to the UK for the last 18 months and has been trying to get home since his first flight was cancelled on 2-Jan.
He was due to fly to Adelaide (home) but was put on a Melbourne flight in Abu-Dabi as his Adelaide flight was over-booked.
Since he arrived South Australia have shut the border with Victoria and he's being told he might not be able to travel to Adelaide until late March/early April and when he does it'll be home quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
With these measures in place you can see how Australia and New Zealand have done such a good job at dealing with COVID..
Whereas here we're now reluctantly bring in Hotel quarantine from a limited number of countries months after it was probably needed.
Pfizer was my thought. As above though, I would take AZ like a shot if no choice.
has any country got a strategy that involves vaccinating under 18s yet?
My understanding is that it isnt approved for children as it hasn't been trialled on children, and it hasn't been trialed on them as they were not given the chance to consent to an experimental vaccine trial.
Is this correct or bollocks, and when will it be approved for children, and is it necessary/practical even?
I’m not saying long covid isn’t serious, it’s nasty and it terrifies me. But unless it’s reflected in numbers of deaths or hospitilizations this government won’t give a shit about it.
The only thing that would get their attention is days lost, long term burden on the NHS. Linking with the mental health side of it - depression has been identified as a long covid symptom. Then there's the general impact of on going debilitating condition on people's psyche.
There are lots of stats where you can infer the impact of lock down, isolation on people. Much was made of this by the lockdown sceptics / CRG wing of the government. Not through any really concern about people, just a flag of convince for their cause of avoiding restrictions. It feels there is a lot of cherry picking by Covid Recovery Group types with their found missionary zeal for mental health and well-being. Unfortunately it's harder to do the counter case on impacts of long covid as we are still working out exactly what it is. Hopefully more people will starting to make the impacts of long covid case. Otherwise the news will just keep running with the narrative they are being given.
long term burden on the NHS
Unless 'long term' means 'in the run-up to the next election', then it's something for the present crop of politicians to ignore.
I'm assuming the short term effects of long covid won't cost the nhs a penny. It's the unknown complications associate with permanent organ damage and mental health that will cost.
And as has been pointed out above, by the time that cost hits, this government will be long gone and will give even less of a shit than they do now.
short term effects of long covid won’t cost the nhs a penny
Not in my case - still waiting for a consultation that's been cancelled twice. I'm hoping the lungs make a comeback as my VO2 max is feeling very sorry for itself. Convincing others is a little challenging when one started in the top 1% (or higher) for fitness though.
My understanding is that it isnt approved for children
Correct, I posted previously, some have been down to 16yo. It's not ethical to test until proven efficacious unless for a paediatric indication from the outset (RSV is one example).
12 years for BioNTech/Pfizer https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728 . Recruiting adolescents is not unusual in trials.
Not in my case – still waiting for a consultation that’s been cancelled twice. I’m hoping the lungs make a comeback as my VO2 max is feeling very sorry for itself. Convincing others is a little challenging when one started in the top 1% (or higher) for fitness though.
Yep, your experience is certainly one that any cyclist would be desperate to avoid for sure. Sounds bloody awful.
I’m assuming the short term effects of long covid won’t cost the nhs a penny.
According to French radio (sorry I can't remember which station it was - business news anyhow) AZ have had a bumper profits year, and that's not because of the Covid vaccine but because of the other meds they sell that are used in treating long Covid, notably inhalers nor mally used by asthmatics.
On a personal level, in 35 years to March 2020 my asthma cost the French health service one ventoline inhaler for as long as the date was valid, and one trip to hospital with the pompiers when I hadn't had an asthma attack for so long I hadn't bothered to get a new inhaler. I never felt the need for a TUV. Since March I've been through two red ones, a mixed one and half a blue one, just to live without being in distress. Even as an asthmatic I didn't get exercise induced asthma, it was alway alergy induced (over 350W for 65kg with no breathing difficulties except for pollen and hay seasons). Three doctor consultations instead of one annually last year.
Anyhow, as I said earlier, 7 days without needing the inhalers, fingers crossed I'm finally getting better.
It’s actually a simple decision to make:
Q: do we want to risk letting the virus have the best chance to come up with a variant that we cannot defend against with medicine?
A: yes: we let it run riot and impose minimal restrictions.
no: we lockdown any outbreaks and control the spread as much as we possibly can.Australia and New Zealand are going for the No option, the rest of the world is either dithering or going for the Yes option.
I prefer the No.
No only works if everyone does it or you're prepared for your country to force everyone coming in to quarantine, and to immediately lockdown and trace any contacts if any outbreak is detected. This would need to continue indefinitely as if you stop then the new super variant will inevitably come into the country and spread.
for your country to force everyone coming in to quarantine, and to immediately lockdown and trace any contacts if any outbreak is detected
That’s it exactly.
This would need to continue
indefinitelyfor another year or so
The alternative could look very messy next winter. Let’s hope not. Longer term, ramping up vaccination for all nations is planned.
Why only a year? The virus isn't going to be eradicated and will continue to mutate. It's just going to become endemic.
As for long covid does anyone actually believe it be any more of a priority than post viral fatigue syndrome, with the same general level of cynicism to it.
Why only a year?
Because the situation worldwide will be very different in a year’s time. As will the next round of UK vaccinations.
Summer holiday 2022. It’s going to be great.
Personally I think you need to wait another 6 months to see how the Oz/NZ strategy is working.
Don’t forget it’s a seasonal disease and they are in the Southern Hemisphere.
If the state of Victoria is a 5 day mini lockdown in mid Feb (mid Aug for comparison) let’s see how that’s working in June (Dec for comparison). It could be the case they they end up being in a long term lockdown at that point.
Yes, closing boarders will help, but it’s only 1% of the issue.
Our own Kent variant is now the most dominant strain across the world, and we’ll more than likely have other home grown variants.
Personally I think you need to wait another 6 months to see how the Oz/NZ strategy is working.
If the approach continues to be as successful the question is what happens when they re-open? Even with a vaccine there is going to be a transition to a lot more cases. We are looking forward to vaccination as means of reducing the impact. Oz/Nz are going to be moving up from low and no cases.
.
https://protonsforbreakfast.wordpress.com/2021/02/12/covid-19-february-2021-update-2/
another blog I follow (ex colleague) - fantastic scientist and great at explaining complex science to the public. Not saying what he's doing here is hugely complex.
Our own Kent variant is now the most dominant strain across the world
Knew we'd do something "world beating" if we just kept trying
As for long covid does anyone actually believe it be any more of a priority than post viral fatigue syndrome, with the same general level of cynicism to it.
Whatever it is, it's affecting alot of people. The fact it's affecting so many people surely makes it a priority, even if it's just a form.of post viral fatigue syndrome?
Interesting development in France, "the already infected only need one jab as a booster".
Thoughts?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56048444
Well there's been a clinical study of UK healthcare workers and those who had COVID have retained their immunity against re-infection for at least 5 months and counting so there's some logic to the French decision. If that is indeed the case then with 4M confirmed cases in the UK which we can at least double for those that had it but were never tested we can add 8M people to the 13.5 M now vaccinated so we're up to 40% of the 55M adults in the UK with immunity to COVID
40% is a probably an over estimate. You’ve double counted people who have been cases and have now had their first vaccine dose, and you’re counting (assumed/guessed) cases that are more than six months old when there is little evidence that protection lasts that long (although of course we are all hoping it does).
40% is a probably an over estimate. You’ve double counted people who have been cases and have now had their first vaccine dose, and you’re counting (assumed/guessed) cases that are more than six months old when there is little evidence that protection lasts that long (although of course we are all hoping it does).
I think you are being overly pessimistic. OK there's a bit of double counting but probably not much. There's no evidence the health workers immunity was dropping off even after 5 month or so and people who have survived SARS COV1 (admittedly a small sample) still have immunity to SARS COV2
SARS COV1 (admittedly a small sample) still have immunity to SARS COV2
I’d not seen that anywhere, do you have a link?
Don’t think it’s been posted so here is Prof. Devi Sridhar on where we are and where we’re going with the virus
https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1360139954131783680?s=21
I’d not seen that anywhere, do you have a link?
I don't have a link but this guy https://www.youtube.com/c/Campbellteaching/videos has mentioned it a couple of times but I cant remember in which of his videos he talked about it.
Well..... Melbourne have done 20,000 tests in the last 24 hours. One new case.
Total cluster size now 14.
Difficult to judge from that how it’s going to pan-out. Hopefully testing is going to ramp up a bit tomorrow.
Tomorrow's papers completely full of "lock down ending soon" headlines.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-56049806
Now I hope we do come out of lock down sooner rather than later of course but with the new variants around and countless other factors it seems a little reckless to tell everyone it's nearly time to crack on?
Schools in March, other stuff in April?
I didn’t really that as nearly time to crack on? I actually read it as an acknowledgment that a lot of people are in a bad place and need some light at the end of the tunnel.
Particularly as pubs in April seems to be outdoors?
Seems at compete odds with being told that UK holidays may well not happen this year.
In all honestly, I'd prefer to hear modest, even slightly pessimistic assessments which are proven to be so, rather than false optimism that gets dashed within weeks.
I'd prefer it to come directly from government than via vacuous leaks/ interviews printed in the tabloids too.
Edit: Sorry, that post does make me sound very grumpy. I have literally not slept a wink last night and it's come out in that post.
We’re all grump AF Poops
Its dark, cold, the economy is ****ed, and we’re in a pandemic
But as has been noted, we finally have a world beating virus 🦠 .... strain. Go us
Seems at compete odds with being told that UK holidays may well not happen this year.
In all honestly, I’d prefer to hear modest, even slightly pessimistic assessments which are proven to be so, rather than false optimism that gets dashed within weeks.
I'd argue it's in line with "might be a bit early to be booking a holiday ", but absolutely agree with the rest. Quit the weekend papers box pop thing and give us facts. Even if one if the facts is "no one really knows how this will pan out"
When will we see clear signs of the effects of the vaccination in terms of reduction in deaths, hospitalisation and perhaps even transmission ?
Seeing reductions of all those criteria in the figures now but it’s not clear how much is due to lockdown measures and how much is due to vaccination.
Are they deliberately holding back information on this until Bozo unveils his lockdown master plan on 22nd February ....?
When will we see clear signs of the effects of the vaccination in terms of reduction in deaths, hospitalisation and perhaps even transmission ?
There are signs already that the death rate in the over 90’s is reducing. It’s only weak at the moment so give it another couple of weeks to confirm is having an effect.
Are they deliberately holding back information on this until Bozo unveils his lockdown master plan on 22nd February ….?
Partially
As others have said it’s frustrating for things to be leaked than than be told straight.
Things are changing everyday, so it’s best to wait it’s a deliberate policy not to say anything until that date.
(The same as any other large organisation)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/well-get-our-lives-back-even-without-a-ve-day-for-covid-knfxwvvhd
A long but very interesting read
Firstly this thread (mostly) has been a fantastic source of information and analysis. Not posted but followed with interest and learned quite a lot. Thanks to all who have shared their knowledge and expertise.
Secondly as I just posted on @tpbikers Asthma thread, I've am booked in for a vaccination next week. At 53 with well controlled Asthma. Interesting reading NickC's posts (Hi Nick!) about how practices are allocated the patient lists. I checked with mine (to make sure original txt wasn't spam) and they told me everyone with any kind of respiratory marker on their records (ie. chronic disease) regardless of effectiveness of management is being offered a slot.
This is Herefordshire which is a sparely populated county, but a very ageing one!
Alex - that's good news.
There was a scientist on BBC breakfast this morning, who gave his 'personal' view of coming out of lockdown. His words were along the lines of - there's not going to be the normal we used to know, also he thinks a cautious return to opening up the country, but in about 18 months.
But as others have mentioned many times, each and every week we learn more.
As for long covid sufferers I really do believe that the minor symptoms (not the complicated heart and other organ related diseases) is post viral fatigue syndrome. As someone who has suffered this in the past, it really is hard to live with, especially if one has been active, loves exercise or leads an outdoor type lifestyle. Unfortunately it can end up with depression. It's all a waiting game. Trying to balance energy levels, eating properly, resting, getting decent sleep and having a goal for the future. But I truly believe it will not go on forever. There have been plenty of threads in the past on STW regarding pvfs, which if they can be dug up, will give a good insight as how to cope.
and they told me everyone with any kind of respiratory marker on their records (ie. chronic disease) regardless of effectiveness of management is being offered a slot.
yep. They offered my 9yr old son a slot...
I posted a link to a blog which starts to show indicators of the effect. A page or so back.
Are the scientists that appear on the national TV channels reliable?
Or have they themselves become addicted to ‘fame’. Personally it really grinds my gears, when you get a scientist on TV, giving their opinion on when we are going to be ‘unlocked’. That’s the governments job!
Also I think it is starting to paint science in a bad light for the masses.
At the moment I'd rather listen to a scientist than the government.
Are the scientists that appear on the national TV channels reliable?
Some of the repeat guests have been wrong about everything for a year, but still get booked. I’m afraid you need to look at their track records yourself to decide which ones are reliable… the TV channels vet for interestingness and availability… not for the reliability of information provided.
I had the Pfizer jab on Thursday having had Covid in December. Firstly I was told I wouldn't get the jab as the chemo I started in January would probably render it ineffective and that chemo would also hit any anti-bodies so I could easily catch it again. But when I went for routine blood tests a couple of weeks ago I was told I could have the jab but they didn't know how effective it would be.
Woke up yesterday feeling dog rough and with a heart rate of 122 and my average for yesterday was 93. Much better today but it did hit me hard yesterday. Not looking forward to the second dose.
The video where Campbell goes into the enduring immunity of SARS1 survivors to covid-19 is, I'm pretty sure, this one:
As for long covid sufferers I really do believe that the minor symptoms (not the complicated heart and other organ related diseases) is post viral fatigue syndrome.
We don't really know yet. There are a couple of interesting theories around NAD+ deficiency and persistent live virus hiding out in the body which have generated treatment protocols, which seem to be working for some long haulers, me included.
What I have found a bit weird is that some CFS sufferers seem resentful that long covid is getting media attention and almost wishing the condition to be the same thing and just as enduring. I find them depressing and negative. If it makes things feel better, the medical establishment has no answers or treatments for long covid either and you're basically left to manage your own treatment.
Whether long covid has any impact on government policy is probably down to the sheer numbers involved and whether anyone close to Johnson gets it.