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Isn't nationalism brilliant?
Conspiracy theories are one thing fake news is another. Please don’t spread it.
Isn’t nationalism brilliant?
..while Rome burns and all that. Absolutely astounding lack of self-awarness:
Is it fake news that a Chinese minister started the American conspiracy?
Seems relevant if trump is retaliating to those tweets.
Surely appropriate retaliation from a head of state is not just dumb racism but a statement of facts etc.
This might be a bit of a generalisation, but Italians are often remarked on as having particularly close family networks, with large families, from the elderly to the youngest living close together, eating and socialising together, with close links to the greater extended families, especially at weddings, birthdays etc.
You may be surprised to learn that the rate of cases in Korea was much higher than other countries at the same early stages of the epidemic (from 32 cases). Then they seem to have completely flattened the curve, presumably through mass testing and social contact limiting. We will eventually follow. Just with less testing and a less compliant population.
There is nothing remarkable about the Italian data by comparison
@Twodogs try Horsey McHorseface on twitter. He's good on science for ACE but on a break from work currently due to his mental health.
Is it fake news that a Chinese minister started the American conspiracy?
Seems relevant if trump is retaliating to those tweets.
It’s not relevant. It’s not real. It’s fake. Don’t spread it.
[ feel free to delete ]
Perhaps post the Snopes debunking of this “UFO” fake news.
Repeat … this was written AS FICTION … and then repurposed as “news” by a fake news website for clicks.
DO NOT SPREAD IT
This seems a bit odd…
Not that they’re supplying tests to where they are needed, wherever they are needed… that’s great… but it’s surprising that doesn’t include us yet.
Wetherspoons still maintaining its income
Yes the boss' son is currently isolating because that's where he works and the alcoholics are infected and bringing it in.
Surely appropriate retaliation from a head of state is not just dumb racism?
Is that aimed at me?? That doesn't answer my question and has no relevance to my post.
Given the survival of the virus in the air I think one of the problems in Italy and Spain is the proximity of people singing/living on balconies. When I lived in Spain the ceiling height was 2.5m and the concrete floor 20cm thick, same in France. The head of a 1m kid singing/coughing on one balcony is about 1.7 m from the head of a 2m adult on another balcony and there are millions of them on the balconies. It's getting hot in southern Europe now, it's 9:45 UK time and I've got all the windows and doors open, if I were in a building in Marseille with over 3000 occupants that's a lot of people in close proximity even isolated in their own homes.
In China it was Winter and people lived windows and doors shut.
Not sure what part of my post was Fake News but never mind. Or have we got Chinese masters operating behind the scenes 😂
Kelvin, not having a pop but which part of the China American conspiracy thing is made up, is the Twitter thing a fake account, is he not a China spokesperson, did it never happen?
Genuine questions.
The Guardian relays an important message from Daniel Kim but manages to hide it in an article about Tom Hanks so it isn't seen in the headline on the home page.
All of it is fake @exsee. Fake. Made up. Not real. Fake. Check Snopes. It was written as a fiction, and repurposed as “news“ by a fake news website. It keeps spreading. Don’t be a part of that.
In fact, I suggest you visit Snopes on a regular basis
Going to leave this here but will refrain from commenting as the ramification are obvious.
Kelvin, seriously just post the link to Snopes. I've had a quick peek but missed anything relevant.
No queues nor containment spaces in either Pharmacy or Co-Op this morning.
People just going about their business as normal.
Considering the panic and shortsightedness, people seem to be thinking “yeah, so it’s only a few old folk that will die from it”” as the reality of the news gets broadcast.
And TBH that argument is valid point to answer.
Mass over reaction IMO.
which part of the China American conspiracy thing is made up, is the Twitter thing a fake account, is he not a China spokesperson, did it never happen?
Genuine questions.
I'm not sure which tweet you're talking about but the thing that's been debunked is this:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/chinese-intelligence-coronavirus/?collection-id=240413
So if you're referring to that ^^^^^ it's been debunked.
If not who knows....
I must admit I'm pretty sure the MSM did say that someone in officialdom in China had made a similar claim so my *memory* agrees with yours.
Mass over reaction IMO.
There are now tents outside my local hospital. Even with fairly draconian restrictions we know cases are going to double a few times over the next 10 days here because the shut down is only 4 days old. So locally we have reacted much more and it's still perhaps an under reaction and you claim a country doing very little in comparision is over reacting. We'll have the verdict on who is right in a few weeks time. My money is on Macron being right and Johnson looking a fool.
@Tired Do you think that any of the European countries are heading for a better outcome than general. Germany on the surface seem to have a much lower mortality, especially if we are thinking they are only a week behind Italy.
Thanks for your posts, by the way, small islands of calm.
Matt
Mass over reaction IMO.
No, on your part, under-appreciation of what has already been set in motion.
But thanks to those with your attitude, it will be orders of magnitude worse than it otherwise could have been.
Mass over reaction IMO.
Bookmarked for when my mum dies, as she surely will if/when she catches it. Maybe you should try engaging your brain?
I hadn't read anything about a bio weapon conspiracy which to be fair was Ming's point that I said I had read similar. Oops sorry all. I meant that I had read about China claiming it may have originated in US.
This type of thing in the independent??
China/America conspiracy spat
Case doubling rate in Germany tracks all others, deaths are lower, however, (but still low numbers). UK looks most like Spain to be honest. Everyome is focussed on case fatality rate, which really is not the most important (it's not estimable as the denominator is not known and varies from country to country based on surveillance). What matters is the relative slope of cumulative cases and deaths. I've been analysing this for a week.
Don't mix unless absolutely necessary (typed from my loft office).
a Chinese government spokesperson suggested that the US Army could be responsible for bringing the new coronavirus to China.
Lijian Zhao alleged in a tweet that read in part “It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe(s) us an explanation!”
Yup, that's the one, I was thinking of.
I genuinely don't know if some people on this thread are just trolling because they are bored, or as thick as pig shit.
No doubt some fectard will soon say "Poe's Law"
I'm not great with numbers, can anyone explain why Spain and Germany have similar total cases (18k) yet 800 vs 50 deaths respectively?
Aging population?
Testing?
Edit, them's yesterday's numbers, now 1000 vs 50
Lijian Zhao alleged in a tweet
Yes, the fake news is being spread by people in prominent positions. It’s still fake. Don’t spread it. Amazing that a horror fiction can be either used or treated as fact in this way. Difficult times.
Not fake, just giving on the ground views.
Dont like it don’t read it.
People happily going about their daily business down here.
HTHs.
If you want to revel in mass panic, that’s your prerogative.
on the ground views
It was written as a fiction, reposted as fact by a site known to post fake news for clicks, and now taken as real all over China & USA. Referred to by a Chinese official, who might not even know its origin. Be better than that please people. Check sources of information, don’t just shrug of misinformation as “views” and spread it. Don’t be fed. Don’t spread.
I’m not great with numbers, can anyone explain why Spain and Germany have similar total cases (18k) yet 800 vs 50 deaths respectively?
Early in an epidemic, low numbers make things unpredictable - small variations in absolute number can blow up exponentially fast - a big difference now will just look like a time lag later (which is why we track Italy by over a week). So what one needs to do is compare countries once cases are growing exponentially. Then you estimate the time to double the number of cases and time to double the numbe of deaths. The death doubling time in the UK and Spain is corrently 2 days. In Germany it is 3.7 (but still small numbers).
Tim Martin really is a complete see you next tuesday
Wetherspoon boss Tim Martin defends decision to keep pubs open:
Responding to suggestions that he should not be issuing pronouncements on how to deal with coronavirus, Wetherspoons boss Tim Martin said he was entitled to make public statements on the outbreak.
“We’re a democracy aren’t we? I’m obviously not an expert, nor am I an economist, but i’ve got a view and that’s all I can say. People can accept it or not. Even if you’re not an epidemiologist you can look at what other countries do and weigh up what’s happened.”
Him and his patrons are half the reason we are in such a ****ing mess
I’m not great with numbers, can anyone explain why Spain and Germany have similar total cases (18k) yet 800 vs 50 deaths respectively?
Aging population?
Testing?
There could be lots of reasons... from national characteristics and how they respond to authority to who the cases are to numbers of ICU and ventilators to earlier testing etc. if Germany detected 2-3d earlier the deaths won't be for 2-3 days later... if germany tested more kids than pensioners etc. etc.
Even if you’re not an epidemiologist you can look at what other countries do and weigh up what’s happened.”
He's right on that point. And the overwhelming evidence is... Avoid social contact to reduce the rate of exponential spread.
Not fake, just giving on the ground views.
Dont like it don’t read it.
People happily going about their daily business down here.
HTHs.
It’s taken me 3 days and a source of helpers to get toilet role for my parents. If my Dad bets Covid 19 he will die there is no of he will. While yes there’s some panic the virus is serious it’s not just flu.
People have no idea what you’ve posted unless read it. HTH.
Guardian also reported similar story Kelvin. Seems to be relevant to trump's baffoonary
Guardian China/American conspiracy spat
I think the clues in the thread title “conspiracy theory”. I’m not coming on here for the gospel truth, just getting involved with all the doom mongering and worst case scenarios . There is far too much misinformation and half truth out there, even from established news outlets.
If it’s causing angst step away from the internet and go outside an enjoy a bike ride.😁
The death doubling time in the UK and Spain is corrently 2 days.
oh
I thought we were on 3 days. 2 days is lots less good.
People happily going about their daily business down here.
HTHs.
If you want to revel in mass panic, that’s your prerogative.
You sir, right now this minute, are thus part of the problem, not the solution.
No mass panic here. Just looking at facts as much as possible, forewarned is forearmed.
Hope you can see sense and stay safe.
No need to panic.
Every need to change the way you are doing things… not for your own sake, but for others.
I think that needs hammering home at this point.
Drs recalled to NHS from work are going back to our lab today to steal all the safety goggles, because they're intubating without eye protection & stressing !
Guardian also reported similar story
Yes, seems the Chinese government spokesperson *did* say it. Once you posted his name it was easy to google.
Just been tot he Post Office, passed the small industrial estate next to it.
All carparks are full, suggests everyones working normally.
Post Office, full of oldies and kids.
So tell me, if oldies and kids are in the vulnerable groups, what are they doing out and why?
Suggests most people thinking this panic is just that, panic.
And if you are looking for someone to blame because us lot are carrying on with life, then I suggest look at yourselves first before poking sticks at people who disagree with your POV.
There guidance is well known and broadcast by the bodies that are monitoring the situation, and they only "advise" and that's just what it is.
If you are unclear about what "advice' has been given or need someone to translate it into normal speak, then please re-read it and get someone to comprehend it for you.
As is, people as continuing normally. Obviously there are people who are self isolating because of conditions and that right, so they should. But people without symptoms are just getting on with life. And rightly too.
Apparently Southwold is heaving at the mo, all the second home owners have decamped from london thinking the clean suffolk seaside air will protect them just one carrier walks into the nelson and it's going to be carnage!
But people without symptoms are just getting on with life. And rightly too.
That is not the “advice”. If people are reading it in that way, then I now agree that the government has to move from “advice” to “instruction” … straight away.
Snopes is a wonder of the internet. For the thread:
https://www.snopes.com/collections/coronavirus-conspiracy-theories/
And general good advice:
https://www.snopes.com/collections/coronavirus-collection-prevention-treatments/
I’m not great with numbers, can anyone explain why Spain and Germany have similar total cases (18k) yet 800 vs 50 deaths respectively?
Aging population?
Testing?There could be lots of reasons… from national characteristics and how they respond to authority to who the cases are to numbers of ICU and ventilators to earlier testing etc. if Germany detected 2-3d earlier the deaths won’t be for 2-3 days later… if germany tested more kids than pensioners etc. etc.
I think Germany is testing more than other countries and therefore finding more infected, rather than only those already in/needing hospital.
German Bundestag is saying that they are unhappy with the amount of social interaction happening. Down at the river the other day there were lots of groups BBQing and generally treating it like a bank holiday.
The gov wants to observe what's happening Saturday and then they will decide whether to take more drastic measures besides telling people to stay away from others and not do anything unnecessary. Define unnecessary....
The Germans are very good at following rules, but up till now there aren't any. Bavaria's minister president will speak at 12:30 (gmt+1). I reckon he might announce more drastic measures than are coming from Berlin. (being a federal republic it means each Bundesland /state decides its own path.
if oldies and kids are in the vulnerable groups, what are they doing out and why?
Who has said kids are a vulnerable group? It's completely the opposite. No wonder you are saying its a massive overreaction, you clearly have not been paying much attention whatsoever
Anyone see the article on BBC about American college spring break. One chap says 'if I get it I get it. It won't stop me partying'. Thick as pig shit, or just massively selfish. Given he's made it to college I assume it's the latter..
And if you are looking for someone to blame because us lot are carrying on with life, then I suggest look at yourselves first before poking sticks at people who disagree with your POV.
It's not about points of view, poking sticks or caring about being poked. It's about following the guidelines for everyone's benefit. How you feel about other people's actions is of little consequence - it's important that you do it.
If you have a cough or temperature, then stay home. If you haven't, then go about your necessary business but don't go out socialising.
The schools closing is not because they are vulnerable to cv19, it's because like with all bugs, they spread like wildfire through the kids and then onto society, via the teachers' social networks; their parents and then potentially onto vulnerable grandparents.
Given he’s made it to college I assume it’s the latter..
he wasn't very tall then ?
if you are looking for someone to blame because us lot are carrying on with life
Man you could not miss the point more if you tried
If we all, in this country, follow the advice on social distancing, the whole nine yards, and get aboard the last chance train that is leaving the station right now, we might only have, 10 - 40k deaths, and this is spelled out by the report that the government are going on, as in the best science available.
If we fanny about, we'll see very, very many more, an order of magnitude more, and it will be due to people who couldn't follow the advice, who thought it was "fuss over nothing". Like you seem to.
But people without [s]symptoms[/s] children / elderly relatives / health /issues /any sense of collective civic responsibility are just getting on with life. And [s]rightly[/s] wrongly too.
FTFY
But people without symptoms are just getting on with life. And rightly too.
Soon to be proved very wrong. Asympomatic transmission is one of the strengths of this virus.
I may have mentionned doing 5 years at Welsh Water. Some of that was in the bacti bab. We all had to be able to bacti-test water sambles and interpret the results. We learned all about aseptic technique mainly because whilst false negatives were a near impossibility false positives were a pain in the arse (restesting, boilng orders, knocking on doors) and usually the result of poor aseptic technique. Most of our concern was with bacteria, the viral testing was a lot harder and less precise. We had contingency plans for not only what to do if our water got contaminated but also how to keep plants running if the populaiton got infected with something horrible -or a war or whatever;
Anyhow the kind of virus that we most feared was a virus with exactly the characteristics of Covid 19.
Easily transmitted
Low minimum effective dose
Long half-life in the air and on inert surfaces
People are infectious long before symptoms and many remain operational during symptoms and infectious phase.
Signifiicant death rate.
It's a very good virus and will be very hard to stop.
If people are reading it in that way, then I now agree that the government has to move from “advice” to “instruction” … straight away.
We're going to end up like France and Spain, with police and the army on the streets, all because of our pathetically weak and incompetent prime minister, and the arrogant ***** who take their lead from him. When that happens they will finally understand, and it will be too late.
Just worked out the logistic function for Italy.
Assumptions:
Assumed today is the point where new cases start dropping back (inflection).
I thought that day was yesterday. Now looks like it's still on the exponential trend 🙁
I think death rates will be hugely linked to keeping it out of the older population. If Germany has kept them isolated better than Italy/China they are in a better place.
We have been given advance warning of exactly what will overwhelm us. We must not waste that lifeline.
@bikebouy Most of Italy was just going about their business a matter of days ago and now there are houses sealed off with corpses inside as they just can't process them fast enough. Friend of mine in Modena personally knows 5 people who've died of it.
But crack on.
If you are unclear about what “advice’ has been given or need someone to translate it into normal speak, then please re-read it and get someone to comprehend it for you.
This is exactly why we need Bozo to stop waffling and spell out precisely what's needed, for the hard of thinking.
Tim Martin really is a complete see you next tuesday
Well, a clear consistent message from this government is probably still 100 deaths away…
https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/1240965305960144897?s=21
If you needed another reason to never ever set foot in Wetherspoons:
I sat next to Tim Martin in a planning inquiry just when Weatherspoons were starting to buy up sites and get planning etc. He was as odious then as he is now. I sometimes wonder how life in Britain would be different if I'd just bumped him off there and then*. I'd probably be out of prison by now.
*not really
Speaking last night to a friend who runs a cancer ward at a london hospital -waiting for redeployment after sending everyone home they could- ICU there was full sometime wed night/thurs morning, incoming being diverted elsewhere.
As an aside, never really had bikerbouy down as one of the dicks previously.
Regarding the mortality rates in different countries I saw a stat that the median age of positive cases in Germany was 45 and in Italy it was 64.
Another anecdote rfrom my time at Welsh Water. Sewage works create aerosols as sewage is sprayed onto filters. Two sewage works workers became seiously ill having contracted tropical diseases from these aerosols from sewage from people returning from foreign trips, and that despite all of us having had vaccinations as if we were heading into worst possible destinations.
There's something in the air.
This is exactly why we need Bozo to stop waffling and spell out precisely what’s needed, for the hard of thinking.
Could be worse.
He might be standing up actively inciting hatred against the Chinese.
Well, a clear consistent message from this government is probably still 100 deaths away
That's, what, two days?
The schools closing is not because they are vulnerable to cv19, it’s because like with all bugs, they spread like wildfire through the kids and then onto society, via the teachers’ social networks; their parents and then potentially onto vulnerable grandparents.
I wouldn't bother feeding the troll... no one is so stupid as to believe that.
Regarding the mortality rates in different countries I saw a stat that the median age of positive cases in Germany was 45 and in Italy it was 64.
positive tested cases?
dantsw13
...I think death rates will be hugely linked to keeping it out of the older population...
But once they get it, they have a problem. I've been told that already our local hospital is running a DNR policy for elderly patients ie over 70.
Whether that is true or not, I do not know, but it's chilling if it is.
When that happens they will finally understand, and it will be too late
Sadly they won't. People as arrogantly stupid & selfish as bikebuoy will never admit that they are wrong, they will always find a way to ignore the facts staring them in the face.. It's just the way they are.
So tell me, if oldies and kids are in the vulnerable groups, what are they doing out and why?
Kids aren’t vulnerable not sure how you read they were. Some oldies are being stubborn, some are buying food as eating is important.
Not everyone can work from home hence why they’re at work.
I’ve just found out another friend has lost their job today. Easily double figures of friends I know now have lost their job.
He might be standing up actively inciting hatred against the Chinese.
Give him time.
My thoughts on the govt response are founded in what I was taught training for my line of work:
"While it's very hard to prove that an action you took saved even a single life, it's very easy to prove that action you didn't take killed someone"
Loads of jobs round here now, supermarkets, warehouses, distribution crying out for help. Two hours from contact to starting work, apparently.
yes, it may come as a surprise to those deep in the STW cocoon but the entire country doesn't work in the IT sector!! Only actually a small percentage of the population can viably work from home, everyone else (manufacturing, food retail/distribution, emergency services, bin men, roadworkers, even garages to keep peoples' cars running etc) is still working as normally as possible (albeit with some additional procedures to reduce unnecessary contact & social distancing/isolating outside of work). If everybody just stopped working and locked themselves in at home society would collapse within a day!!Not everyone can work from home hence why they’re at work.
I wouldn’t bother feeding the troll… no one is so stupid as to believe that.
Unfortunately loads of people are as stupid as bikebouy. As least the people that have been paying attention will be taking the necessary steps so will still even out the peak a bit and allow things to catch up with it and deal with it as it spreads at a slower rate.
As PM, I would have made it clearer.
- We haven't got the resources to deal with a lot of people getting this virus in a short time period so are instructing social distancing, not going out unnecessarily, closing schools etc,.
If you ignore that and the virus spreads at too fast a rate then you won't be treated in hospital as we don't currently have the capacity.
We haven’t got the resources to deal with a lot of people getting this virus in a short time period so are instructing social distancing, not going out unnecessarily, closing schools etc,.
If you ignore that and the virus spreads at too fast a rate then you won’t be treated in hospital as we don’t currently have the capacity.
That was the message made though.
Everyone needs to stop panicking, the Pope has got this covered...
Pope Francis Says He Asked God to Stop Coronavirus
and called on people to use these troubled times to get closer to their loved ones.
as well as getting God to fix it, he's making it worse
Also, no problems here, a good old mass prayer session will sort it:
Whoops.
Tesco are moving some staff doing back office roles to stacking shelves in stores. I'm pretty impressed with how the big retailers are reacting given the muppetry of their customers.