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He did so much more than so many of us. Very sad news.
I read last week he couldn’t be vaccinated because he already had Pneumonia. Then he got CV. 😣
That's sad, but what a terrific life he lived, his final year especially. His family must be so proud, and I hope it helps with their loss in some way.
Not sure if anyone has mentioned the link above, its about excess deaths caused by alcohol in E & W last year. It probably just highlights the tip of the iceberg as far as ‘other’ deaths related to lockdown go and I’m sure we will soon start to see data for other causes, if we haven’t already.
Probably best left for someone like TiRed to out the excess deaths stats into context better than I just attempted to 🤦♂️
Just seen a Capt Tom thread has started, so best use that one and keep this separate I reckon.
Probably best left for someone like TiRed to out the excess deaths stats into context better than I just attempted to 🤦♂️
Certainly
Quite right about the Imperial Vaccine - Robin Shattock has pivoted to looking at mutations using saRNA. I don't recall any Pharma company being mentioned (which doesn't mean that none are involved)...
Press release is here if of any interest:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/213313/imperial-vaccine-tech-target-covid-mutations/
@Stcolin - I suffer from this too, but I took January out from posting. I lurked, but immediately looked away from any political/negative content. It really helped.
RIP Capt Tom Moore. I also said goodbye to a friend of 20 years today by Zoom funeral of course. Other than asthma Steve was 50, a fit outdoors guy and MTBer who leaves his wife and 3 step children. He contracted COVID in early Jan, and 10 days ago passed away. Its hit me very hard that I won't see him again, he was a lovely guy and frankly its quite unbelievable that he of all people has gone,
Please do the right thing all, and if I doubt, don't.
@stcolin - echoing the other comments here. It's good to talk things through with someone. Even just having them listen whilst you off load and work things through. I wouldn't sell your kit, just hold it for future days. There comes a point when you just wake up and think time to have at it again. Winter is always a bit tougher but we are heading towards the long days of summer. It's really good just spending time outside - it doesn't have to be mindfulness to be relaxing. Sometimes influencers over complicate the simple act of walking and tuning into or out of the world around you. I can completely appreciate the frustration of not being fit. I try and look at it as just being a bit of change down.
Thanks Rich B - that’s a good read.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-sustained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval#
76% protection with second dose after 12 weeks and 64% apparent reduction in transmission for Oxford vaccine
64% apparent reduction in transmission for Oxford vaccine
i don’t quite follow how all the numbers work, but I seem to recall last March the word was R0 (no control measures) was 3+.
Does that mean that even a fully vaccinated population would still see rising infections?
Maybe, but with no hospitalisation, mask wearing on public transport, and an outdoor based summer it all helps!!
To a point yes, people could still be infected and pass the infection on, but with this you are reducing the population that are susceptible to infection, essentially if you are in an area where 600 in 100000 currently have the virus it means that the number who would be infectious after the vaccine is dropped to 240 per 100000, as a result they should pass it on less and the infection rate reduces. Trouble is if everyone goes back to normal behaviours then the contacts will go up increasing the chance of paying in the virus. So that's where the vaccine is far more important in reducing clinical infection (symptomatic infection) wherec people actually get sick.
The vaccines reduce the level of disease which at least means the death rate drops.
Hopefully the mrna vaccines will reduce transmission more and the next gen of vaccines and treatments more again.
This virus isn't going anywhere, it is endemic.
I hope that all makes sense.
Isn’t that 82% after two doses Graham?
Yep, apologies. 76% is for the interval between first and second doses.
Still only up to 55 yrs of age though.
Although it’s obviously a complete shit show.
Im still astonished that we’re... what... 14 months from the first proven case (?) and we’re already vaccinating people in their millions.
Thats an astonishing effort in vaccine development. I know there’s billions to go but I never expected to see family members vaccinated in this timeframe.
Let alone that we’d be looking at a vaccine with 82% protection being a bit middle of the road!
No agreed, the current timescales are unheard of. Middle of this year was when i thought we would be starting vaccination, not potentially ending it in the uk.
It is mind blowing
If anyone is interested on the case brought against Government corruption around dodgy PEE contracts for Tory donors.
Tomorrow sees our legal challenge for Government’s failure to disclose details of COVID-19-related contracts. The case is being brought by Good Law Project along with a cross-party group of MPs - Caroline Lucas (Green), Debbie Abrahams (Labour) and Layla Moran (LibDem).
Ahead of the hearing, Government has disclosed how much public money it has spent defending its conduct. It makes for an eye-watering read.
Government has used a huge legal team - nine solicitors and five barristers - to prepare for a one day hearing with just one witness. And its costs stand at a staggering £207,784. A private litigant doesn’t have the bulk purchasing power of the state and its costs are often higher. But Good Law Project’s costs stand at just £81,854. And that £207,784 has been spent defending what Government has explicitly admitted to being persistent and unlawful conduct.
We have managed, with your help, to crowdfund £100,466. But you don’t need a maths degree to see the problem.
Given the continuing super-sized costs bills it’s hard not to wonder whether there is a correlation between how politically sensitive a legal challenge is and how much Government spends. In our judicial review over the award of huge PPE contracts to weird counterparties, it has estimated its costs at an enormous £1million. This is a sum unprecedented in our lawyers’ experience of judicial review proceedings. It would be hugely worrying if Government was incurring huge costs to try and scare off legitimate public interests challenges.
If you are in a position to donate to the legal challenge over Government’s failure to come clean on COVID-19 contracts, you can do so here: crowdjustice.com/case/fight-for-transparency/
As our lawyers state in the skeleton argument, it was only when we and our fellow co-claimants began to highlight Government’s unlawful failure to publish COVID-19-related contracts that senior officials began to seek to rectify the situation. Our legal pressure is working and we do not intend to back down now.
Thank you,
Jolyon Maugham QC
Director of Good Law Project
It is mind blowing
People need to realise this, it's incredible. Great news about oxford vaccine!.
From the link above.....
“They report that the effect of dosing interval on efficacy is pronounced, with vaccine efficacy rising from 54.9% with an interval of less than six weeks to 82.4% when spaced 12 or more weeks apart.
They also detail that a single standard dose of the vaccine is 76% effective at protecting from primary symptomatic COVID-19 for the first 90 days post vaccination”
Can anyone explain why a single dose can be 76% effective but 2 doses with a 6 week spacing has an efficacy of only 54.9%
Only thing I can think is maybe their definition of efficacy vs effectiveness at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 is different. I thought that was how efficacy was defined but maybe I’m mistaken?
If anyone is interested on the case brought against Government corruption around dodgy PEE contracts for Tory donors.
I thought we were trying to keep the political bitching away from this thread?
^^They touch bases occasionally. Hasn't done the thread any harm. Wouldn't call it bitching anyway, government needs to be accountable.
Stay safe all, been a real mixed bag of news today.
Stay safe
This makes me cringe every time I hear it, it really needs to be put to bed now it's an overused term.
It's the new literally.
That was unnecessary
This question has probably already been done so apologies.
Does anyone have a grip on what the real world consequences are on education? Not “what it means” on a day to day, or even a year or two sort of way. But the consequences long term, what will it mean to those whose education has been impacted in say, 10 years time?
Anecdotally I know of kids who have quite simply exited the education system and aren’t likely to return, instead they’ve gone down a road of alcohol and drug use. In some respects the alcohol and drug use was likely to happen anyway but the proportion no longer in education ‘seems’ to have increased. I also know of kids who have worked incredibly hard under very difficult circumstances.
To the bystander it looks like gaps that already existed in what prospects are available will get even wider. Those that work hard now will simply have less competition. Is that a fair observation? I’ve no idea what this all means long term beyond I’ll educated guess work, maybe no one does?
I can empathise with other aspects of the world we find ourselves in to varying degrees, job insecurity, losing family members as a result of CV19, personal health concerns, but not having kids the impact on the future of the yoof isn’t one of the things.
What’s best practice now if someone in your household has at least two symptoms? (upset stomach for days, then sudden onset (last night) high temp and loss of taste, feels awful, hot back and chest.
Am v worried as Mrs P *always* at risk of pneumonia when she gets a chest infection and is long term sick and disabled.
phoned docs and admin said not to go and get a test because of risk of spreading virus
119 sends me to gov website
Is it order home test kit and sit tight?
Piemonster - not education specific, but my view is that the pandemic has shone a light on those inequalities that we've turned a blind eye to for years.
Looking at the data on gov.uk, it seems the halving time for cases and admissions is about 18 days. That seems quicker than the first wave? My own area (East Sussex) that got smashed by the Kent strain (went from 30/100,000 to 600-1200 within a month) is reducing by 35% per week cases wise at the moment,
Your docs Admin seems to be talking rubbish - "don't get a Covid test in case you have Covid" doesn't seem like the govt advice to me!!!!
phoned docs and admin said not to go and get a test because of risk of spreading virus
Surely that's bollocks, Doctors receptionists all too often think they're Doctors. Get a test booked for her, there's very little chance of spreding the virus drivind to a test centre and getting a swab handed through a window.
Best of luck mate, fingers crossed she's okay.
Yes.. get a home test kit or book in for a test
Also order an spO2 reader (they just clip on your finger).. so you can monitor blood O2 and gives a good indicator of your current condition if you are breathless / have a cough
Call 119 or go online to get a test. Don’t call the gp. We aren’t involved in arranging testing hence misinformation like the above.
Thanks cloudnine, but she has low blood pressure and Raynaud’s so not sure how accurate an oximeter would be ?
Home test kit ordered via the website.
Does anyone have a grip on what the real world consequences are on education? Not “what it means” on a day to day, or even a year or two sort of way. But the consequences long term, what will it mean to those whose education has been impacted in say, 10 years time?
No hard evidence but my feeling is it'll be significant.
My wife is a teacher, we've got lots of teacher friends and two kids at school.
There are very few, if any kids thriving in this situation - a small percentage are 'hanging on' but most are stagnating or going backwards at a rapid rate.
My youngest YR5 has been doing additional tuition for about 2 years via an outfit called Explore learning - it is very data-driven and we get quarterly updates/reports.
In Dec-19 she was working at approx 15 months above her Chronological age. The report we received 2-3 weeks ago has her at bang-on her Chronological age, and raised concerns regarding her spelling/English - so from an educational point of view - she might as well have been in coma for the last 11 months.
I was talking to another teacher friend yesterday - teaches YR4 in Croydon (for those who don't know Croydon - think pound shop Detroit) they are having a nightmare with home learning as many kids live in a house without internet as a utility, and no devices beyond smartphones connected via 4G. As a result they've had approx. 60% of kids in school - but the behaviour and attitude to learning is off the wall.
My wife (secondary School SENCo and Science teacher) has been delivering food parcels to families who have fallen through the gaps and who's kids don't qualify for free school meals (due to rapid recent changes in circumstances) - some of which are struggling to feed their kids.
She thinks a good percentage of the lower achieving YR11 kids will just disappear now and not return to school.
Many of the kids with anxiety or other issues which they've worked hard to get into school are having a nightmare at home - My wife sat on the sofa one night last week and had a good cry having just written a social services referral for a 14 year old girl who'd tried to take her own life by drinking bleach.
If my kids get through this with out having any long term mental health problems i'll see it as a massive win.
Low bp won’t affect the oximeter but raynaulds could if fingers are cold and blue at the time. If fingers warm and pink should be ok. It’s helpful anyway to get a baseline. If normal is 99 then dropping to below 95 is significant. If normal is 95 then might accept above 92 as ok...
To the bystander it looks like gaps that already existed in what prospects are available will get even wider. Those that work hard now will simply have less competition. Is that a fair observation? I’ve no idea what this all means long term beyond I’ll educated guess work, maybe no one does?
I'd say it will highlight and widen the existing inequalities. Those likely to take the "wrong" route will do so sooner, with all the longer term impacts on society through substance abuse, crime, next generation etc, those who knuckle down will continue to flourish.
Politicians need to be looking at how those long term historical inequalities get tackled, even more than they originally did.
I disagree about less competition for those at the top. We don't know how teacher assessed alternatives for exams will play out this year, but as I understand it from Jnr who is in his A level year, there is a belief that unis are offering fewer places this year on the basis that more kids will get their predicted grades, so actually harder to get in to first choices.
I'm happy to be proven wrong by those working in unis on here. He might just be showing off cos he's sat on an offer from Cambridge 🤣
Hashtag humblebrag!!
You must be pretty chuffed though, thats a great opportunity.
there is a belief that unis are offering fewer places this year on the basis that more kids will get their predicted grades, so actually harder to get in to first choices
Many students deferred there places from last year, so there will be fewer places on offer for this years cohort of Yr11's.
As others have said, the attainment gap will increase massively as as usual those at the end of the bottom of the socio-economic spectrum will be hit the hardest.
With Covid, it seems like deaths are just the tip of the iceberg. There is going to be a bigger impact on health/education/achievement for a lot more people.
Thnks docrobster. Appreciated. Have no idea what her ‘normal’ (baseline?) is. Will order one today.
written a social services referral for a 14 year old girl who’d tried to take her own life by drinking bleach.
Several young people I know are lonely as ****, isolated, suicidal, en route to becoming alcoholics. They're just considered collateral damage as far as I can see.
Well.... Johnson is at it again... his reply to a question about quarantine for people entering the UK was to... again... ask Starmer to say that schools are safe... you know, those schools your offspring are not currently going to, because... er...
If normal is 99 then dropping to below 95 is significant. If normal is 95 then might accept above 92 as ok…
Just out of curiosity, should I be concerned that my reading rarely gets over 95%, and is more often in the low 90s. I'm healthy, riding to work every day (10 miles each way), eating a healthy mixed diet, etc. Googling just tells me to seek medical advice if I have other symptoms, like breathlessness, etc.
Have you tried it on other people’s digits?
My watch (garmin fenix 6) has a pulse oximeter built in, it automatically takes readings whilst I'm asleep , my readings over the past 18 months range from 97% to 88%, they routinely drop down to 88% at points during night. I'm fine, so I think its just inaccuracy in the device rather than an actual issue, so its important to establish a baseline of what is normal with these cheapo devices.
I think if the watch was showing readings in the low 80s/70s for me then I would seek medical opinion.
I’m happy to be proven wrong by those working in unis on here. He might just be showing off cos he’s sat on an offer from Cambridge 🤣
As a former Tab I would say that oxbridge work a little differently here. As they are the "top of the list" they know that almost all offers they give will be accepted, and back in the letter grade era (may have changed now) once they have decided they want you based on their own vigourous intervieewing and examination process they will give you what they think is an easily acheivable offer.
It’s helpful anyway to get a baseline. If normal is 99 then dropping to below 95 is significant. If normal is 95 then might accept above 92 as ok…
That makes sense but it's not actually what it says on the NHS website, which is that if it drops below 95 (? from memory) call 111 and if it's below 92 call 999. MrsJ consistently reads 99 and I read from 96 to 98 depending on what day it is and what finger I put it on.