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Is there any truth in this or is it selective in interpretation?
https://twitter.com/parismarx/status/1353330538292121602?s=21
You’re not thick
I don’t think you have the data to be able to say that with confidence. 😉
That made me laugh. The cat birthday party story made me want to cry
Thanks TiRed.
Good anti "covid scepticism" site here debunking some of the shit put out by the likes of Toby Young and Julia Hartley-Brewer and their ilk
Quite a hatchet job on that site. Thanks for sharing. I always say that the virus really doesn’t care. There are some rather immutable facts;
A new sarbecovirus has emerged of the coronavirus family.
There is little or pre-existing Human immunity to this new pathogen.
Its readily spread between humans, especially in closed settings.
Morbidity is unknown but mortality is raised, particularly in the elderly.
Those dying are overwhelmingly those not receiving treatment, only palliative care.
Overwhelming healthcare service will increase the numbers forced into only palliative care.
There is significant additional mortality that is far in excess of annual influenza, even with restrictions.
Imparting some form of immunity will help reduce mortality and then morbidity.
In the absence of treatment and protection, restricting spread by lowering contacts is the only available intervention.
You can’t isolate 15m people with a raging epidemic in the remainder.
And a reasonable timeframe for control is about 18mo.
I’m always happy to debate the economics of lockdown, the social issues raised, even the morality. But the science of the above points is beyond question. Skeptics would do well to accept the fundamentals first.
A year to the day since we had our first case in Australia, and a "donut day" in NSW - imagine my disappointment to find out that we don't all get a donut. 8th day now without any locally acquired infections.
Our (one way) travel corridor with NZ has been slammed shut - they've just had a case of the SA variant, so there goes the only exception to our quarantine of new arrivals.
But the Pfizer vaccine has just been approved.... so: swings and roundabouts. They are prioritising all the quarantine workers for vaccination first, and this has been the source of all of our outbreaks - obviously banking on the vaccine reducing transmission
From BBC....
Moderna vaccine appears to work against variants
Thats good news after a series of really depressing covid related updates from the gov. Right now I fail to see how we can get back to some sort of normal.
Great analogy for the hard of thinking about the nature of exponential growth:
Worried Danish leaders have tried to explain to their citizens why they need to stay in lockdown, when overall metrics are good enough to suggest the country should have started to reopen weeks ago.
In a long Facebook post this month, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told people to imagine sitting in the top row of Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, a soccer arena with a capacity of 38,000 people. A dripping tap is filling it up, one drop the first minute, two drops the second, four drops the third. At that rate, Frederiksen said, the park will be filled in 44 minutes. But it will seem almost empty for the first 42 minutes, she said.
“The point is, you only realize that the water has risen when it’s almost too late,” she wrote.
What do we think regarding vaccination passports of some type?
An area fraught with privacy and exclusion issues, but I feel will be inevitable for international travel. I did hear government considering some scheme linked to your actual passport, which could be checked by the airline / travel company at booking or check-in.
I suspect we may need something wider than that, which works on several levels,
i.e. a smart card that can just be shown at pubs, resturants etc, but could be verified electronically with PC + card reader where it maters a bit more (say cinema, big indoor events), to a central database lookup where its critical like international travel.
An "exampt" status may be neccessary for some people who medically can not be vaccinated.
The other issue is security, I can forsee an eBay market for fakes appearing before any scheme is even rolled out.
International travel is still likely to be based on tests, not vaccinations, unless vaccinations are shown to prevent rather than just reduce transmission. As for pubs… not going to happen. When they open again it’ll be for all, but with social distancing measures in place again. Being open only for the vaccinated won’t be welcomed by the public, won’t be enforceable by the staff, and is just a fantasy talking point for half arsed journalists.
Looks like Britain might be on the receiving end of vaccine nationalism.
I'll post something relatively encouraging for once:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1353864909772251138
Still early days, obviously, and lab studies don't always translate to success in actual humans, but definitely worth further research.
Treatments will continue to develop - we'll come out of this pandemic knowing so much more about viruses.
What do we think regarding vaccination passports of some type?
It's inevitable, but for travel, I can't see it working in the likes of a pub. Two staff on my wifes ward have refused the Pfizer vaccine as they want the O/AZ one, 'cos it's British, and they're thick as ****.
In their cases I'd have them sat at home on SSP until they rethink.
So.... hotel quarantine anyone?!?
I seem to remember that being mentioned previously
Looks like Britain might be on the receiving end of vaccine nationalism.
I did fancy the EU would try something like this, but not sure how they can expect AstraZeneca to earmark and hold vaccine supplies for EU citizens when the approval process is moving so slowly, and there are even mutterings about not approving it for over-65s, is beyond me.
As for export bans, I'm sure the companies involved would use the European courts to nullify the immediate impact of any attempt.
Another demonstration of how it feels to be outside a major trading powerhouse, though. I'm sure our 'buccaneering spirit' will see us through. Perhaps we should send a gunboat. 🙂
So apologies if this has already been covered, but I couldn't see it......
Whilst the government is rightly promoting news about the high numbers being vaccinated (1st dose) there's growing news about potential delays and downgrades to the supply of the A-Z and Pfizer vaccines.....so the concern for me is the potential for both 2nd doses being missed beyond the already stretched period and the daily rate of new (1st dose) vaccinations dropping dramatically.
We're on the cusp now of starting to need millions of 2nd doses for all those 80yr olds and HCPs to keep them within the 12 week window ...so in order to maintain that high daily number of new vaccs (1st dose) into the next priority groups e.g. 65yr olds, the supply needs to double...that doesn't seem to be what's coming out in the press about supply.
So…. hotel quarantine anyone?!?
I seem to remember that being mentioned previously
It's worked well in NZ and Aus.
Agreed - but it's a poor move on the part of the EU - the British will resent potential deaths being caused by the EU because they renege on a contract due to their own supply and approval issues. I think that will set the tone for future relations if such a tone hasn't already set in.
Getting a vaccine shouldn't be a "passport to freedom" We can't say to people no vaccine stay inside. However I can totally see a world where it would be recommended as a list of jabs you need like say rabies when you go on holiday. But I agree with Kelvin likely situation will be some sort of negative test before / after landing in a new country. Although if countries say no jab no entry that's totally their decision.
I think that will set the tone for future relations if such a tone hasn’t already set in.
Aye, bit disappointing that they've descended to the same level of shithousery as us. But scarce resources always tend to bring out the worst in humans.
.so the concern for me is the potential for both 2nd doses being missed beyond the already stretched period
This. Zahawi was sticking to his 'confident about supply of 1st jab' line, but my concern would be that while we would probably get enough to x2 vaccinate under a 21 day schedule, our decision to delay the 2nd dose means that overall we will need more pfizer doses, and I'm not convinced we've secured them. Another issue is how Pfizer deal with the 'extra dose out of every vial' thing. They are contracted by dose not vial, and our calculations may not account for Pfizer reducing the number of vials they provide in response.
Aye, bit disappointing that they’ve descended to the same level of shithousery as us. But scarce resources always tend to bring out the worst in humans.
I think the saying treat others as you wish to be treated sounds about right. It seems a bit of a non story from me but no one can blame the EU for looking out for their best interested. I mean after all we decided to buy up millions of vaccines without a thought for the rest of the world.
At the moment the Pfiezer vaccine is the backbone of the UK vaccine response isn't it? I don't think it's a non-story at all.
It's not clear to me whether Pfizer are reducing all contracted supplies equally or just the EU is getting the shitty end of the stick. Assuming they are reducing exports in line with EU shipments then yeah it's a bit crappy of the EU to try and further reduce exports to increase their own supply.
I'm so not going to Portugal at the end of May am I ?
No happening.
I’m so not going to Portugal at the end of May am I ?
Not unless you fancy a further 2 weeks in Costa del Slough on your return....
Its the right thing to do for controlling new strains coming in from other countries, but doubt it'll go down very well when people find out they cant have their 2 weeks in Magaluf this year.
I mean after all we decided to buy up millions of vaccines without a thought for the rest of the world.
This. Looking to ensure your own supply works both ways. When "we" do it, it's "good" news.
This. Looking to ensure your own supply works both ways. When “we” do it, it’s “good” news.
Agreed - I might have laughed my cock off when I read the headlines after the responses to my opinion in the vaccination of under 50's thread.
Good luck ****in vaccinating all those with the first Pfiezer dose all over again and the rest of us with the AZ vaccine by September
I’m so not going to Portugal at the end of May am I ?
No, sorry fella.
So…. hotel quarantine anyone?!?
I seem to remember that being mentioned previously
It’s worked well in NZ and Aus.
*waves from Sydney*
There is significant additional mortality that is far in excess of annual influenza, even with restrictions.
Are there estimates available for how many people in the UK would die from flu every year if there was no vaccine against it available?
it's not great news obviously but although the Pfizer one was used first hasn't the UK got (or ordered?) much more of the Oxford/AZ one?At the moment the Pfiezer vaccine is the backbone of the UK vaccine response isn’t it? I don’t think it’s a non-story at all.
Yup - but are we doing mixed doses now?
Is there any UK capacity coming online to produce these vaccines and if so anyone got an idea of timelines?
We need enough Pfizer to do a second dose at 6-12 weeks on the extra people we gave a first dose because of the change in regime. No idea if that's guaranteed at all, especially given their manufacturing issues.
Is there any UK capacity coming online to produce these vaccines and if so anyone got an idea of timelines?
The az vaccine is already manufactured in the UK (as well as in europe)
dunno what the official strategy is but PHE have said it's OK - I guess it's better than not getting a 2nd dose of anything?Yup – but are we doing mixed doses now?
The UK is fast becoming the international hub for population-based Phase 3 trials, so why not?
Yup – but are we doing mixed doses now?
dunno what the official strategy is but PHE have said it’s OK
Since when?
dunno what the official strategy is but PHE have said it’s OK
I doubt it as the vaccines from different suppliers work in different ways, so you cant just mix and match.
Link?
I doubt it as the vaccines from different suppliers work in different ways, so you cant just mix and match.
Link?
They said it was ok in certain very limited scenarios, not just as a matter of course for anyone.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n12
Meanwhile down here in East Devon still no request to come for a first jab.
(Just trying to force the laws of synchronicity like when I complained to Peoples Energy about my rebate only for my snotogram to pass there notification somewhere in the ether)
In other news is the AZ/Oxford/BMGF deal a story?
Interesting explanation here
https://health.wusf.usf.edu/health-news-florida/2020-08-25/rather-than-give-away-its-covid-vaccine-oxford-makes-deal-with-drugmaker
Quick question, lateral flow tests for me at school. If I have just had covid will this just come back positive no matter what?