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Africa deosn't have much to worry about. Given the age demographic:
https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure
And the fact they aleady have much worse epidemics running in the background for example Malaria.
The ECB will just print as much money as is needed to press pause for a while. Germany is one of the most affected countries, they won't be dragging their feet this time.
It's all manageable, anti-viral treatments initially and then a vaccin. It just needs good management over the next six months... anyone but Trump or Boris.
/Start Rant
Don't get me started. Has it occured to those accusing some of us of spreading panic that it may actually be the other way round? It's genuinely concerning to see everyone carrying on as normal. I've been distancing since last Tuesday when I got a cold. Apparently I'm over-reacting and have been told by many normally sensible people that 'life has to go on', 'it's just flu', 'we don't need to do anything yet because it's not compulsory' and 'you only need to distance if you have symptoms'.
If it's done anything though I've now got the hygiene thing down to an artform if I venture outside. I think I've even managed to crack the not touching your face thing until I've had a chance to wash my hands. Not sure others have, I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
???????????
Tricky to pull together when the countries been split for 3+ yrs innit
To be honest I think most people will happily put all that behind them and pull together.
(But it is slightly worrying that parliament is half empty already and everyone's eye is off the Brexit ball while a deadline still approaches fast)
I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
It's tricky - if you are further away, you'll look smaller, so she'll assume you are a child and not authorise your booze.
It’s all manageable, anti-viral treatments initially and then a vaccin. It just needs good management over the next six months
Agree but it will more likely be a year rather than 6 months mainly due to teh numbers of people involved. For example, be great to have an anti body blood test avaiable in 4 weeks time but actually do the blood tests on millions of people is another thing.
I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
It’s tricky – if you are further away, you’ll look smaller, so she’ll assume you are a child and not authorise your booze.
Best reply EVER !! ^^^^ 😀 😀
If it’s done anything though I’ve now got the hygiene thing down to an artform if I venture outside.
Cobblers! When I saw you on Saturday, you and your nackered new bike were caked in filth! As you strolled around the quite large gathering we were at
Super-spreader!!!! 😛
my wife now has the enviable task of ringing round nursery parents asking them if they could pay their bill even though the nursery is shut :/ Can't see this ending well.
the government is going to have to do more to ensure cash flow at a worker level.
We all got Grippe A H1N1 vaccinated fairly smoothly in 2009/2010. We all got a convocation depending on our priority. A letter arrived in the post with a date, time and place.
Whilst I get that generally you have to cater for the average moron when giving national advise, it is frustrating when I wandered over to the shop to pick up some essentials last night, to see the town pretty much dead, apart from Prezzo, which was stuffed full, of olds.
But also:
I’m struggling a bit with some of the overly negative and fearful comments on here which seem to suggest that being incredibly afraid is somehow the only logical conclusion for this set of events
But also this. The doom mongering mentalists on here are as bad as the above Prezzo morons. i'm astounded some people can manage to function as fully fledged adults in some cases. Depressing.
But it is slightly worrying that parliament is half empty already and everyone’s eye is off the Brexit ball while a deadline still approaches fast)
And the PM refused to answer questions on it, saying only that there was legislation in place that he had no intention of changing.
Cobblers!
You may not have noticed though that I didn't shake anyone's hand and quietly kept my distance when talking to anyone. That's the only time I've been out other than to go to the shops though. (and it was definitely a head cold I had last week, not CV)
Well if I get it, I know who I'll be holding responsible
quietly kept my distance when talking to anyone
Schoolboy error there.
Surely the further away you stand, the louder you need to talk?
I will now never be able to read any of Daz’s posts without having that mental image of what he looks like.
I preferred the old, pre-apocalypse Daz..
While that's all well and good GrahamS, it does looks like the US has dispensed with all the dithering and is prepared to do just about anything going forward to look after it's people.
Just like Boris said he was going to do a few days ago.
I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
It’s tricky – if you are further away, you’ll look smaller, so she’ll assume you are a child and not authorise your booze.
This deserves greater publicity ^^
Top work.
🤪
I too am getting sick and tired of the Doom Slayers, wish they’d all wallow in another pit somewhere.
Thankfully after getting rid of a lot of mass speculation and idiot speak, we now seem to all understand the fundamentals of how to manage yourself and those around you.
All it needed was a clear head and clear communication.
my wife now has the enviable task of ringing round nursery parents asking them if they could pay their bill even though the nursery is shut :/ Can’t see this ending well.
Our nursery sent out a similar email yesterday, depressingly predictable reactions on FB.
'Their insurance should cover it!' - Already debunked in numerous headlines recently
'Why should we pay if our kids aren't in nursery??' - So that there's still a nursery in 3 months time?
'I can't afford to stay home and look after my child while also paying nursery fees' - The letter made it quite clear, numerous times, that if your income is affected, they will review their fees.
I think the most corrosive aspect of social media is that you go away thinking that majority of the population are pig-thick cretins. I just have to hope there is a silent majority of reasonable, considerate people who actually read things and just think occasionally.
Spanish Flu burned itself out… and social distancing where it was adopted was effective
re "burned itself out" wikki says (why paraphrase when you can quote?):
After the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, new cases dropped abruptly – almost to nothing after the peak in the second wave.[49] In Philadelphia, for example, 4,597 people died in the week ending 16 October, but by 11 November, influenza had almost disappeared from the city. One explanation for the rapid decline in the lethality of the disease is that doctors became more effective in prevention and treatment of the pneumonia that developed after the victims had contracted the virus. However, John Barry stated in his book that researchers have found no evidence to support this position.[11]
Another theory holds that the 1918 virus mutated extremely rapidly to a less lethal strain. This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out[11] (see also "Deadly Second Wave", above).
...but I'll go with "burned out". It wasn't the radical measures we're seeing now that ended it. People were just a lot more phlegmatic about death from disease in those days, not a strategy I'd propose we adopt.
Thankfully after getting rid of a lot of mass speculation and idiot speak, we now seem to all understand the fundamentals of how to manage yourself and those around you.
Ye think? Town centre was full of pensioners going about their business as normal this morning, some with grandkids.
They're not getting it at all.
And the barber's was busy too. wtaf?
Granted. But. It’s a lot better than “not having a clue” surely?
Its not. You still need to self isolate the negatives because 1:5 are positive (and people may be less rigorous at doing so because they think they are probably safe). You have no different treatment to offer the positives. All it does is make you feel like you are doing something.
IF the current testing has a 99% Sensitivity (and a useful specificity) then it MIGHT be worth doing that with its typical 2 day turnaround; BUT I doubt there is absolutely robust data on how many of the negatives are truly negative? How many days after infection before its detectable, how robust is the sampling method (and training) etc - these things all have huge impact on the accuracy of testing.
Has this been shared yet? https://www.boredpanda.com/coronavirus-outbreak-stages-italy-jason-yanowitz/
I too am getting sick and tired of the Doom Slayers,
Bikebouy, earlier.
Doom Eternal out tomorrow, fellow self-isolationists!
How stupid are people??
You've read the rest of this thread, right? And seen the hysterical, headless chicken nonsense the media are putting out?
Our mate, who's a nurse, came round last night (yes, we let someone in our house), rolled her eyes when asked about it and put all this hysterical nonsense in some perspective. She pointed out that in the north west of England there are literally a handful of confirmed cases in any given area. Large areas have no confirmed cases at all*. One person in the Manchester area has died and he was 75 with serious existing medical conditions anyway
As a medical professional I'm going to go with her attitude towards it, rather than Daz's
I've just had a look and where I live, there are 15 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053
Get a ****ing grip!🙄
* people running screaming indoors and barricading themselves in their homes is very different from a confirmed case
My local chip shop is open, F&C anyone?
Our nursery sent out a similar email yesterday, depressingly predictable reactions on FB.
‘Their insurance should cover it!’ – Already debunked in numerous headlines recently
‘Why should we pay if our kids aren’t in nursery??’ – So that there’s still a nursery in 3 months time?
‘I can’t afford to stay home and look after my child while also paying nursery fees’ – The letter made it quite clear, numerous times, that if your income is affected, they will review their fees.
I haven't looked at our contracts with the nursery(s) yet. Typically is it by term or month? Or longer?
If we don't need the care and we're not legally obliged to pay, we won't be paying.
We have a terrific relationship with both settings but we're talking about substantial sums of money here.
*If* the Nursery(s) wanted to charge a holding fee to keep the place open (10pc or something) we'd do that for sure.
(Most likely we'll still need the care, but in the event we don't...)
I’m just about to get my hair cut too..
#washcutblowdry
OK - so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
You are missing the containment and contact tracing work done in other countries. We’ve let it spread. The end result is more deaths. For us it’s about trying to slow that spread to keep the death count lower. We haven’t tried to contain it properly, because it was decided by the government and their chosen experts that we could not, so we did not even try.
Oh, Binners, please try harder to do you bit as regards spreading this. Yes, panic and alarmism is to be avoided and derided. But action to limit and slow the spread is the responsibility of us all.
OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
We don't know how many deaths China will have because they hit the pause button.
Italy, they're on 2978 deaths currently. Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn't that far away for them.
...and the media routinely quote the worst case estimates as 'the estimates' 'cos that sells well.
So I dunno, I'm just following the guidelines and hoping for the best. 🙂
ou’ve read the rest of this thread, right? And seen the hysterical, headless chicken nonsense the media are putting out?
Personally, I've just been looking at the death toll rising in Italy, the triage they've had to perform, and thought, good luck to the elderly here, its been nice knowing you. It's not hysterical to look at the facts and numbers of what is going on there.
Also, epidemiologists, worldwide, seem rather worried about it. Maybe they know something the nurse doesn't, like the exponential function, and have a fair amount of expert knowledge on pandemic transmission and so forth.
Or, you could look at it another way, they're the professionals at this sort of thing, maybe we should go with their attitude toward it.
Italy hit 100 deaths - the same as the UK today - around 4th of March. That was just 15 days ago.
Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn’t that far away for them.
Technically, and to correct my own post as well, it is the logistics function. Looks exponential, until it hits the inflection point half way through, then the increase slows (looking like a reverse of the first exponential rise).
Oh, Binners, please try harder to do you bit as regards spreading this. Yes, panic and alarmism is to be avoided and derided. But action to limit and slow the spread is the responsibility of us all.
Like I said, couldn't you just summarise the best way to address this as 'don't be a dick'?
Is going to a busy pub advisable? nope! If I was in that there Laaaandan I wouldn't be going anywhere near the tube. But I'm still going into the office where I'm working at the moment and will continue to do so because I only really see two other people all day.
I think the people doing trolley dashes around Aldi and self-isolating because someone sneezed within 50 yards of them are absolute ****ing morons!
Fourth day of not being closer than 2m to anyone except Madame who has a stinking boring normal cold thanks to being on a ski bus full of school kids last Wednesday. Garden's looking tidier.
As a medical professional I’m going to go with her attitude towards it, rather than Daz’s
My attitude is nothing more or less than the official advice coming from the government. Am I worried? Yes, absolutely, I've got two very high risk parents who are following your 'get a grip' mantra to the letter and still going down the shops and the golf club etc. I've also got medical professional friends, including a hospital doctor, who say the exact opposite to your mate and are much more worried than me so I'll carry on listening to them whilst hoping they're wrong.
Aside from the health perils, I'm actually more worried about the economic fallout. Seems we're not allowed to talk about that now though as many would rather have one less thing to worry about. That's fine, the health stuff comes first, but it can only be successful if society functions, and that needs everyone to recognise the magnitude of this and what their part in it is.
Now I'm off out on my bike, on my own. So no change there then.
You are missing the containment and contact tracing work done in other countries. We’ve let it spread. The end result is more deaths.
True but it does look like a big difference. I didnt see anywhere what the modelling predicts for Wuhan. I'm sure it's been done. I'm not pretending to have spotted a problem, just curious about the figures being spread around.
Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking.
I don't know about that. Their rate of increase has slowed, due to the measures they've introduced. Projecting a peak based on that change 'may' be premature. On the other hand, our government seems to think that the Imperial prediction can be mitigated to tens of thousands rather than hundreds, and France, Spain and Germany alongside Italy will be the tests of whether that is achievable.
I’ve just had a look and where I live, there are 15 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053
That is a low figure, but they're not testing, so the community spread is unknown, and quite possibly significantly higher. There is room between a nonchalant shrug and outright wibbling to find the correct concern/stoicism balance.
+1 dazh
there was a thread started about the army rolling into London and beyond from this weekend to 'assist' with some form of lockdown......the thread was closed PDQ...
Makes you think...
I haven’t looked at our contracts with the nursery(s) yet. Typically is it by term or month? Or longer?
If we don’t need the care and we’re not legally obliged to pay, we won’t be paying.
We have a terrific relationship with both settings but we’re talking about substantial sums of money here.
*If* the Nursery(s) wanted to charge a holding fee to keep the place open (10pc or something) we’d do that for sure.
(Most likely we’ll still need the care, but in the event we don’t…)
Well this is where the government needs to step in isn't it?
If everyone says 'I'm not paying' then nurseries go kaput, and we just have to hope that all the staff hang around, living on benefits, until such time as it's cost effective for the nurseries to open again.
As far as I'm concerned, nurseries are a public service, and the fees are akin to the tax that pays for the NHS etc. I don't resent paying that tax even when I'm not ill.
Continuing the tax analogy, if our family income is unaffected, then we can continue to afford the fees/'nursery tax' and as such it's entirely right and proper that we continue to pay it.
Using the shutdown as an opportunity to save some cash while the nurseries struggle is short-sighted at best I think.
Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking.
IF the rate of infection has turned past the half way mark, the death toll will continue to rise for another two weeks (or however long the "average" severe case runs for). That could put Italy at anywhere up to 20000 deaths. Then they have the far side of the curve to traverse. This will double the figures, but, the end is in sight.
And that would be a brilliant result for the containment strategy.
Then, they have to focus on testing the community at large, to track down every fresh infection, to prevent a flare up.
You can see all this played out on the China graphs here:
worldometers china coronavirus
where the inflection on the new confirmed infection graph came at around 10 feb. The deaths graph lags the infections graph. After the 10 feb, deaths tripled.
IANA epidemiologist, but I do understand graphs, and where we are at right now on those graphs - assuming we can do as good a job at shutting this thing down as China did - does not look good for the elderly.
Then we need a vaccine to stop it happening again.
Makes you realise just how big a bullet the world dodged when SARS was shut down by China a decade ago.
I've kind of been avoiding putting my thoughts together on this regarding the economy but here goes.
We are naturally religious creatures. A religion that many have joined is the religion of The Economy. They treat it as if it were as real as real things. Real things include food, shelter, and disease. The list of real things is actually quite short whereas the list of things in The Economy feels almost infinite.
The fact is, there is enough food and shelter to go around. The problem is that the religion of The Economy has convinced people that starvation and homelessness in the West is inevitable.
What we are hopefully about to realise is that The Economy is an imaginary thing. It's a game we all choose to play and we can take a break from it any time we want.
There is enough food to go around. There is no need for people to lose their homes due to lack of wages during this period.
The third real thing I mentioned, disease, is a bit more tricky. Disease treatment relies on The Economy but even that rigid connection will hopefully loosened during this period.
This kind of thing should not happen at all but especially not during this period:
It's the kind of thing that people's belief in The Economy allows to happen all the time, ie people die because of trivial costs and patent protection, but I hope we realise that when we are in a crisis these things are not real but imaginary.
I hope if anything comes from this crisis it's to crystalise in people's minds the difference between real things and what The Economy tells people are real things.
Edit: At least I hope I'm right. I work in the oilfield and I'm almost certain to lose my job soon.
Well if I get it, I know who I’ll be holding responsible
Beaker is a perfect analogy for all those out panic buying. It's all, "me, me, me, me"....
Doom Eternal out tomorrow, fellow self-isolationists!
OK Doomer.
Gotta love a straight-talking politician.
"French Interior Minister Christophe Castaner has said “some people think they’re some kind of modern-day hero when they break the rules - but they’re imbeciles, and a danger to themselves”."
IANA epidemiologist, but I do understand graphs, and where we are at right now on those graphs – assuming we can do as good a job at shutting this thing down as China did – does not look good for the elderly.
Agree with all that. If (IF) Italy is peaking they may end up with about 40,000 deaths as you say. Is the difference between that 40,000 and our 250,000 (similar total population) really down to slowness of BoJo to react? If so, that makes him higher on the list of mass murderers than Tony Blair (maybe not...)
Beaker is a perfect analogy for all those out panic buying. It’s all, “me, me, me, me”….
OK Doomer.
Are we are running at normal Beaker / Boomer levels for a thread of this magnitude? I think I did the Brexit thread twice so not really got a frame of reference. Number of tinfoil hats being dished out - normal or not? Just so I know when to panic.
Makes you realise just how big a bullet the world dodged when SARS was shut down by China a decade ago.
one of my colleagues was locked down for 3 months while at UNi in China, shes a data scientist & mathematical modeler
she has been saying repeatedly for some time that we should have shut down much earlier, she helped organise the letter to the government warning them that they needed to shut down, as well as actually test enough people
Flip cakeandcheese - really sorry to see that.
DrJ
Member
OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints few the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
They don't predict 250k in the UK, they say that's the 2 year do nothing scenario.
Even with all measures in place they expect 20,000 deaths in the UK, over 2 years.
Read the Imperial college report. It's very clear.
It's also why I think people are well off about things. Going batshit about the herd immunity thing, it was never a goal. It's just what's going to happen and I think it will come back into the discussion at some point.
It's going through the populace regardless.
And also all the strategies are at the moment is lock down lock down lock down. Which is fair enough it's absolutely necessary, and was always in the UK s planning, but where's the rest of the plans for how to come out of this?
I'm not hearing any solutions. The idea of protect the elderly and vulnerable is literally all we can do until a vaccine is ready for mass distribution.
really down to slowness of BoJo to react
No, it isn't. The UK aren't predicting 250k deaths.
The UK strategy has always been to follow the science. It's what they are trying to do.
It must tell you something that sturgeon is on the exact same page as Boris..
People need to be non partisan on this and inform themselves better.
It must tell you something that sturgeon is on the exact same page as Boris..
No, Sturgeon is on the same page as the scientists. Boris just gets handed the page at teatime and told to read it out on the telly.
That's pish perchy. She basically said as much in her press conf yesterday.
Like I say leave out yer allegiances on this one. It's helping no one.
I’ve just had a look and where I live, there are 15 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053
Get a ****ing grip!🙄
For the non-mathematcians: 1,200,000 = 15*2^N so N = log(1,200,000/15)/log(2) = 16 doubling times or currently about one month. This is a huge over-simplification and the doubling time in rural areas and increase in immunity will limit spread (that is the herd part). But it is an illustration of why authorities are worried.
BTW even if 0.5% of people require hospitalisation, which is an underestimate, and assume there are about 140,000 total x (1.2million/50 million) = 3300 beds in lancashire then time to 660,000 cases is 14-15 doubling times. Assuming all beds are available now (in fact I imagine 80% are occupied.
But it is an illustration of why authorities are worried.
Like many have said, people, and apparently Binners, just don't understand the concept of exponential growth.
Like I say leave out yer allegiances on this one.
Nothing to with allegiances. It's about the perceived intelligence and empathy of the respective leaders.
Basicaly, It appears that she's been reading her brief and understanding it as much as she can and , based on appearances on the telly at least, he probably hasn't.
He looks like a broken man whilst his advisors answer the difficult questions.
I’ve just had a look and where I live, there are 15 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053
And from that we know they have tested at least 15 people, there are 15 confirmed cases and Lancashire has a population of 1,210,053.
Basicaly, It appears that she’s been reading her brief and understanding it as much as she can and , based on appearances on the telly at least, he probably hasn’t.
He looks like a broken man whilst his advisors answer the difficult questions
And you say you've no bias? Jesus man..
Anyone got any thoughts on the impact of people shifting out to second homes. Isolate or not? Don't actually have one it's more one of those what if thoughts. Since it seems there's still no hard and fast on where the big hotspots are there has to be a risk?
Not reading thread so apologies if this has been said. but some schools are looking for old laptops and tablets for students from homes without access to them. Look for requests on internet, rather than inundating schools with calls if you can help.
Germany is now advising people to stock up on sausages and cheese, just in case of the Wurst Käse Scenario.
#fakenews
#notfakenews
Just been out for a run along the local track and there were loads of kids happily walking with elderly relatives, holding hands, riding on shoulders etc. And that's before the schools have shut.
Honestly a pint tonight in a quiet pub doesn't seem that bad...
.. if we sat in the beer garden then it would be outside activity..
They don’t predict 250k in the UK, they say that’s the 2 year do nothing scenario.
Thanks.
It’s just what’s going to happen
That's my take on it. If a decent/practical test for people who have antibodies comes out that changes everything. If a vaccine comes along in 14 months or so that changes everything. Until then "herd immunity" by catching it is what will happen.
I’m just about to get my hair cut too..
Which is permitted in Belgium, a lock down country. Dunno about Italy or France. According to "CoronaVirus newscast" is a bit of a misnomer in Europe. I won't be, mind you.
It must tell you something that sturgeon is on the exact same page as Boris..
+1
...and Mark Drakeford. They all have a say in this and if they had a better strategy I'm sure they'd be saying so in private and in public.
Anyone got any thoughts on the impact of people shifting out to second homes.
Immediately quarantine them in a cave and requisition their second homes to be used as field hospitals
@BruceWee interesting thoughts, but although The Economy is an abstract concept it is indeed a real thing. It's big and complicated and hard (impossible?) for humans to understand but it does certainly exist.
The Economy is made up of rational operators acting in ways that are determined by the incentives they perceive and their personal preferences. They all make choices on how to allocate their time to earn money and how to spend that money once they've got it. The rules of The Economy can be tweaked to a limited extent by government, but fundamentally people will just crack on with what they see as best for themselves.
The end result of all the action is that most people get fed and housed and maybe even get a nice holiday now and again. Some people may get really unlucky or just make bad choices and that's where, in a civilized society, there needs to be a safety net in place to pick them up and look after them until they can get back to a place where they can look after themselves.
You say we can take a break from the game, but I don't think there is any way to do that. Fundamentally the rules of the game are just a reflection of human nature and I don't think you can suspend that.
Including one about Australian researchers finding existing drugs that kill CV in tests.
Bill Gates on Reddit IAMA yesterday was interesting. His thoughts:
1). He believe the Chinese numbers and South Korea mirrors them
2). The above is evidence that strict lockdown is effective but no one is sure if there will be waves once it's lifted (China & SK haven't seen the follow-on waves some are predicting
3). The Imperial College modelling is using too pessimistic assumptions, real world data is not matching it so far
4). Therapeutics should be a priority now not vaccines. Vaccines take a lot longer to develop and test, they won't be available in the timeframe needed but will eventually play a part in getting it properly under control
5). Testing is key - not sure he really explained why but I think it's down to maximising the effectiveness of the lockdown (without also crippling the country for months). Priority should be to test health care workers.
6). Hopefully it will be a wake-up call for governments to take pandemic planning and response measures seriously in future
Lots of other interesting bits of info - nothing that hasn't already been said by others but just interesting to read rational responses.
Until then “herd immunity” by catching it is what will happen.
Have you been asleep since Friday?
Change that to “may happen” if you want to keep a positive outlook, or even “may never happen” if you want to go full Eeyore.
worth watchiing - the science informing policy. Start from about 5 mins in...
You say we can take a break from the game, but I don’t think there is any way to do that.
Millions (maybe even billions) of people are already taking a break from the game. Just ask an Italian hairdresser how business is going. Suspending the game is already being discussed by both the UK and US governments in the form of suspending mortgage payments and rents, parachuting money, etc.
Much of the medical industry is based on artificially inducing scarcity through Intellectual Property laws and patents. We're prepared ta accept this and sacrifice a certain number of people at the alter of the Economy but we can choose for this scarcity to not exist any time we want. Hence why the story I linked to seems so jarring in the current situation but we're prepared to accept people dying for exactly the same reason in normal circumstances.
Shocking.
Whitty suggested that a long-term “exit strategy” from the current coronavirus policy could involve waiting for a vaccine. In response to a question about what the “exit strategy” was that would allow the restrictions currently imposed to be lifted, Whitty said there was a short, medium and long term view. In the short term, the aim was to delay and reduce the peak of the epidemic, he said. In the medium term, he said the aim was to reduce “overshoot” - which he said meant reducing the number of people who would get the virus overall. And in the long term, a vaccine was “one way out of this”, he said. But a vaccine would not happen very quickly, he said. He went on:
It's not too bad at the moment, but being on lockdown ... what for the next 18 months? Honestly, it just doesn't add up to me.
Question for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?
Because if the way the virus binds to the Ace2 receptor. Some people on ACE inhibitors may be at greater risk
good point. Why can't medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts like Gates/Buffet, rather than private companies/shareholders lining their profits? Maybe we will see a shift.Much of the medical industry is based on artificially inducing scarcity through Intellectual Property laws and patents. We’re prepared ta accept this and sacrifice a certain number of people at the alter of the Economy but we can choose for this scarcity to not exist any time we want.
And in the long term, a vaccine was “one way out of this”, he said. But a vaccine would not happen very quickly
It’s not too bad at the moment, but being on lockdown … what for the next 18 months? Honestly, it just doesn’t add up to me.
One way out. Maybe they'll develop a test for antibodies first. If they can work out who has resistance then things can quickly move onto a normal footing as people who've had it are identified and can live a normal life.
There was also talk on R4 this morning of a cheaper/easier/quicker test for people who've currently go CV. Also useful.