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Getting that low, like last year, is important because there are NO scenarios where relaxing restrains with just the over 80s and perhaps even the over 60s vaccinated does not lead to some impressively large outbreaks and a significant healthcare burden.
Cut. Paste. Send to Johnson.
Close work colleague is back off sick again. He and his wide tested positive around 7-8 days ago and he was starting to improve a lot. I hope this isn’t a bad sign. He is mid 50s, pretty fit, doesn’t smoke etc.
This seems to be a pretty common presentation - initial illness, feeling a lot better, then downhill again about 10 days post infection. Hopefully his lack of underlying illness means he'll be able to ride it out.
Well I tested positive yesterday
Symptoms mild, but I'm 3rd person in work outbreak
Now primary & secondary schools closed to key worker kids due to an outbreaks, so homeschooling online even more chaotic
Double post
Is it just me that is worried that people (including some on here) seem to think that it’s ok to start mixing again as normal after being vaccinated.
Article on bbc today about a rise in holiday bookings in over 50s who are looking forward to starting travelling again as soon as vaccinated. Coach tours being a particular favourite. Clearly not giving a shit that they can still be vectors of transmission, as long as they are safe
Another example of the senior generation’s selfishness, though I shouldn’t be surprised
Good luck Kimbers, I tested positive on monday, had a rough few days but feeling better now
Could anybody tell me more about the current hoped/expected vaccine effectiveness duration? And also when might we start to see evidence of it? I saw a couple of things last night and this morning, reminding me that catching the virus possibly doesn't impart long term protection (BBC article suggest at least 5 months protection from developing a serious infection but maybe not more). I guess /hope the vaccines being designed to trigger a strong immune response will hopefully be effective longer, but are we perhaps going to need a top up jab pretty often? Maybe yearly? Ok if we do we do, and maybe it could even be combined with the flu vac so it's one shot in the arm, but we will need to vaccinate a lot of people every year I guess.
My test came back negative...12 hours from test to results.
I still don't feel right, but I guess it's something else.
The amount of staff with positive tests at work is quite frankly insane now. No idea how the place is still open!
Edit: good luck kimbers and a_a....
a_a didn't you test negative a few days ago initially? What type of tests did you do?
@tpbiker I think that's more an example of being hard of understanding, rather than selfish. Obvs there will be some who care not but, attribute not to malice what can done be pinned on stoopid, etc.
a_a didn’t you test negative a few days ago initially?
No, that was my mum a week or so before xmas. She stayed with us for a while but I took her home before I started back at the germ farm!!
Could anybody tell me more about the current hoped/expected vaccine effectiveness duration?
Current approved vaccines produce an immune response against the virus spike protein. Looking at sera from recovered patients, the spike protein is the most immune-stimulating part of the virus. But it’s not the ONLY response (intact virus has other parts the body can attack). The antibody responses look similar in that they can neutralise the virus in a Petri dish (and it really is a dish!).
As for duration, well other coronaviruses have waning immunity of perhaps a year or two. Reinfections are not as bad for symptoms but they do occur and are detected. The study published yesterday in healthcare workers says that immunity lasts at least 5 months - the duration of the study of course. But some get reinfected. Their symptoms are not as bad though. I think I’ve been reinfected myself with lesser symptoms.
So I suspect the vaccine will look the same as natural infection. Those who would have had a bad outcome will get mild infection. Those who would have been mild get a symptomatic but detectable infection. Those who would have brushed it off as asymptomatic are probably sterile protected and don’t transmit to others (maybe). Expect a year to two years of protection with ever-decreasing severity of illness. Possible revaccination but eventual long-term immunity at least to severe disease will come. Then after say 10-20 years, SARS-CoV-2 will become a an endemic childhood illness. Where immunity is acquired by repeated infections at a young age, with repeated boosting and the occasional bad outcome in the elderly (as per the other coronaviruses).
Expect to see evidence on deaths reducing in three months, cases in six and transmission by autumn. I hope that’s not too pessimistic for the public to understand.
[tl:dr] vaccines will likely protect for a year or so but will take time to show effects.
A negative test does not mean you've not got Covid unfortunately. If it looks feels and doesn't smell like it, it still may well be!
Cheers a_a hope you're OK too!
One customer said she had no idea that you weren’t supposed to travel and she hadn’t really been listening to any news.
There are genuinely a large number of people who have given up on the news, or only take a passing interest now. I understand how confusing and depressing it can be, but to wilfully ignore key (ok, conflicting) health advice in a pandemic.
There are genuinely a large number of people who have given up on the news, or only take a passing interest now. I understand how confusing and depressing it can be, but to wilfully ignore key (ok, conflicting) health advice in a pandemic.
I can understand it, it's depressing tbh reading the news all the time and it's not the only way the government should be communicating. With the lack of unbiased and non alarmist media these days we shouldn't be forced to read life and society critical information there.
chvck
I don’t think that I’ve seen this posted and it may be of use to some – Association of British Neurologists COVID vaccine guidelines. tldr: none of them are live vaccines, take whichever is offered.
Thanks. Trouble is, it’s hard to have blind faith in medical science when a neurologist told you to measure up for wheelchair ramps and 15 years later you’re still walking, and wanted you to take a drug that is no longer used because it turned out it didn’t work, and the oncologist said it wasn’t cancer when it was, and the surgeon told you you won’t need chemo but you did, and so on.
When you have an overactive immune system, you don’t really want to mess with it.
@speedstar....yeah I know 😌
Still I'm officially able to go to my 'Covid secure' workplace this weekend and continue delivering food.
I know of loads of people that think the vaccine is the end of the fight, once we have the first round of doses done we can go back to normal. It’s not fully understood by a large part of the country that being vaccinated protects you only, you can still be a carrier to others.
The science remains to be seen on that. Whilst there is no evidence that the vaccine stops transmission, the absence of evidence in one direction shouldn't be inferred to mean that the corollary is true. Some vaccines do have sufficient effect to prevent transmission rather than just infection. Of course a vaccinated person would still be able to pass infection through repeated contact with hard surfaces etc even in the best-case scenario.
Is it just me that is worried that people (including some on here) seem to think that it’s ok to start mixing again as normal after being vaccinated.
Yes, but frankly I'm more worried about the people who have been told they are +ve or have been in contact with +ves who aren't isolating for the required period (or at all).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErpdEjWXAAIHxoR?format=jpg&name=900x900
(the full thread for anyone interested https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1349459843833352192)
It's worse than that. People can't afford to be off work. They are not isolating. They are avoiding track and trace, and avoiding getting tested, to avoid isolating. So the figures only show some of the problem. The solution is government support aimed at individuals, and worker protection legislation aimed at employers... as other countries put in place 10 months ago.
The charts linked above show that younger people are far more likely to obey the rules than older people, yet they're the ones most at risk of financial difficulty.
The charts linked above show that younger people are far more likely to obey the rules than older people, yet they’re the ones most at risk of financial difficulty.
And realistically, once someone has had the vaccine how likely are they to self isolate if they've been in contact with someone who has it.
Either through ignorance or pure selfishness they will think they don't have to, whereas my understanding is that if you've been vaccinated you can still contract the virus, and probably still transmit it, but unlikely to be that ill.
And realistically, once someone has had the vaccine how likely are they to self isolate if they’ve been in contact with someone who has it.
If my parents and others of similar age are to be believed, once they've had the vaccine then all bets are off. They've been pretty good all through bar far to many trip to B&Q but they and their friends have assured that caution won't continue once they're vaccinated.
I suspect this is part of the governments challenge, they need to move quickly as once a fair number of people have been vaccinated then they will start being a lot less cautious.
It’s worse than that. People can’t afford to be off work. They are not isolating. They are avoiding track and trace, and avoiding getting tested, to avoid isolating. So the figures only show some of the problem.
It's not even just work.
There was the "don't want to spoil Christmas" brigade too.
Lots of self diagnosis of "its just a cold" when the was the possibility of Christmas bubbles.
Can you really be fined for not being able to giving a reason for being outside.
A woman at Sittingbourne Railway Station was fined £200 for being outside of her home without a valid reason.
Is any other county listing all the fines given out.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/police-dish-out-30-fines-in-first-weekend-of-lockdown-240647/
Can you really be fined for not being able to giving a reason for being outside
Yes. There's quite a long list to pick from, she clearly lacked imagination or was objecting to being asked.
An analysis of the Scottish Track and Trace app showed that only half of the folk who tested positive and were then given a code to enter into the app (which is what notifies close contacts) bothered to do so. I'm not sure what their reasoning would be so is it simply laziness? Not taking the situation seriously? It's not like you are identified at any point.
My nephew who I mentioned above ( negative but living in a house full of positive) is a self employed brickie. His site "employer" knows his situation and is really pressuring him to go to work.
An analysis of the Scottish Track and Trace app showed that only half of the folk who tested positive and were then given a code to enter into the app (which is what notifies close contacts) bothered to do so. I’m not sure what their reasoning would be so is it simply laziness? Not taking the situation seriously? It’s not like you are identified at any point.
Its been suggested those numbers are similar in all the apps, its not a Scottish specific problem. It does strike me as odd - why bother installing it if you aren't going to do the vital step but I can see various possibilities.
- The person answers a question about the app to T&T, gets a code, but hadn't actually got the app installed.
- The person forgets/misplaces the code and asks for another one (the stats are actually the number of codes issues which get used, in includes duplicates/replacements).
- The person forgets to open the app and input it.
- The person isn't very tech savvy and doesn't work out where to put it.
- The person feels pressure from others, work colleague? partner? etc not to input the code and "make them isolate".
- Apathy, mistrust in the system etc.
Or the person forgets to do it because they are ill with Covid.
they and their friends have assured that caution won’t continue once they’re vaccinated.
Have you put it to them how selfish they are by doing that?
Have you put it to them how selfish they are by doing that?
Oh yes, but they are of a generation that won't take advise well.
I suspect part of it is the narrative from the government. The vaccine is being pushed as they thing that will bring life back to normality, so once someone has one why are we suprised they want to act "normally"?.
I suspect this is part of the governments challenge, they need to move quickly as once a fair number of people have been vaccinated then they will start being a lot less cautious.
As a counter anecdote, my dad & MrsP's mum have both been jabbed, but neither one is intending to do anything daft and spready/catchy for the forseeable future.
An analysis of the Scottish Track and Trace app showed that only half of the folk who tested positive and were then given a code to enter into the app (which is what notifies close contacts) bothered to do so.
I had quite a mild case I think but was bloody rough. Dealing with the track and trace requests to input data onto the website and then piss about with the apps whilst having a banging headache and a fever wasnt easy, I expect many just cant face it.
It’s great to see the figures starting to turn back round in the right direction but I fear that this will only fuel the calls for schools to be re-opened and normality to try to resume from some small sections of society too early and we could risk a 4th wave.
My inner pessimist worries about the same sort of thing. As soon as things stop getting worse a lot of people will feel that the restrictions should be eased, as the problem's been solved. Some won't wait for restrictions to be eased to begin acting as if they have been.
*You can still stay off if you're unwell regardless of reason. Too many people just soldier on without need. Silly work culture we have of working whilst sick.
Trouble is, it’s hard to have blind faith in medical science when a neurologist told you to measure up for wheelchair ramps
Neurologists have never forgiven immunologists for the fact that the most significant disease modifying drugs damp down the autoimmune effect. Modesty forbids, but my proudest scientific achievement has been the invention, development and eventual approval of one of those drugs.
I don't know if there is any data on COVID vaccination whilst taking anti-B cell therapies, but the recommendation has been to get vaccinated prior to starting therapy for other vaccines.
It’s great to see the figures starting to turn back round in the right direction but I fear that this will only fuel the calls for schools to be re-opened and normality to try to resume from some small sections of society too early and we could risk a 4th wave.
Or so many younger people have already had it. I saw an estimate of 1 in 3 in the south east and that combined with the vaccination we will avoid wave 4. I have no scientific evidence for this just hopeful thinking. Not a good way to make policy.
I suspect part of it is the narrative from the government. The vaccine is being pushed as they thing that will bring life back to normality, so once someone has one why are we supris
Sat in a Teams meeting with senior members of our (civil service) management team talking about how close we are to the end of this with the vaccine being rolled out 🤦♂️
Or so many younger people have already had it. I saw an estimate of 1 in 3 in the south east and that combined with the vaccination we will avoid wave 4. I have no scientific evidence for this just hopeful thinking. Not a good way to make policy.
I suspect Wave 4 will be an import of an even more transmissible / vaccine resistant variant. A mix of the virus being endemic in some parts of the world which aren't as advanced in vaccination giving rise to more mutation opportunities coupled with a UK with a UK defaulting back to global Funtime. I'm going for 2-3 years before we can get a real picture of how much of an ongoing issue this is going to be.
Wave #4? Aren't we in wave #2 at present? When is wave #3 due?
Today's stats are delayed. 🤔
Glitch in the Matrix or they trying to delay the bad news?
I hope it's not the latter.🤞
Wave #4? Aren’t we in wave #2 at present? When is wave #3 due?
The current one is described as Wave 3 - gets a bit complicated when a new more transmissible variant becomes dominant during a surge in cases. The question is would we move into Wave 4 if one or other of the current mutations takes hold and becomes the more dominant strain with an associated increase in cases. Maybe it's time to talk about Covid seasons rather than waves. Or a more generic respiratory virus season as we are going to have more colds and flu to factor in in future years.
An analysis of the Scottish Track and Trace app showed that only half of the folk who tested positive and were then given a code to enter into the app (which is what notifies close contacts) bothered to do so.
Anecdotally that's because the length of the SMS messages containing the results of the tests are too long for reliable delivery and are frequently (and silently) dropped by the phone networks.
Often you get an SMS with the test result but no code, and vice-versa.
Another example of the senior generation’s selfishness, though I shouldn’t be surprised
@tpbiker not all of us over 50's are looking to kick over the traces. Please try to maintain some semblance of restraint as we don't need to fight amongst ourselves. Train your ire on those that are nominally managing the outbreak and infection control.
We're all suffering from this damn thing as Mr Turner sings "Try to be more kind".
His site “employer” knows his situation and is really pressuring him to go to work.
@zippykona Get your nephew to ask for that instruction in writing by telephone. Unless it's in writing it don't count.