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Full MemberOne overlooked benefit of lockdown- no visits from JW or Mormons!
JW made the mistake of waking Mrs jp during a much needed nap when the new born baby was asleep. She gave them both barrels and they have avoided our house for nearly fourteen years now 🙂
I got a copy of the Watchtower sent to me at Christmas with a “card”. Nice folk but not interested in what they have to say. I should just ask them to stop calling but I don’t want to offend!
Fun fact: Number of Covid dead should exceed maximum heaven capacity (according to JW) by spring.
Capacity has already been expanded from 40,000, apparently. God must've built an extension, or coverted it into an HMO.
7) Taxes (predominantly income tax) are likely to rise to cover the costs of the lockdown measures.
So given the above was mostly agreed by all parties involved on to the question:
Given the pensionable aged person disproportionally benefits from lockdowns and the young are disproportionally negatively effected, to enable the economic recovery should those that benefit the most also have to shoulder the burden of servicing the debt through changing to a means tested access to age related state benefits (state pension, free bus passes, free TV licenses, heating allowances etc.)?
This seems to be based around a "household budget" view of the economy. We won't get a bill like a credit card bill that needs to be paid off in a certain time. We've done austerity for no reason, thanks.
Fun fact: Number of Covid dead should exceed maximum heaven capacity (according to JW) by spring.
Capacity has already been expanded from 40,000, apparently. God must’ve built an extension, or coverted it into an HMO.
Nightingale Heaven - will there be angels enough to staff it ?
Apparently Hades sent a load up, but God created a hostile environment and they decided to head home.
When did it get to 40,000? It was 20,000 when they used to hassle the students offer to enlighten our poor lost young souls in the mid 90s.
Was reminded of this today when the local JWs sent out letters in lieu of doorstepping.
We got that last week - fair play to them, we've all had to adapt to these challenging times. And they probably coped with a minimalist Covid Christmas better than most, to be fair
Sinovac vaccines results out (leaked anyway) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55642648 Reported 50.38% efficacy. Reverse engineering and typical sample size for trials says that this is 65 infections on vaccine vs. 131 on placebo (50.282%) or 66 and 133 (50.376%). Of course the trial could have double this number of events as well. Or treble. But I doubt it (note the 200 events is common to most trials) Either way this is not a great outcome for an old technology (inactivated virus). It's certainly pointing to just how good the mRNA technology is, but there is much detail still to come out from the trial.
Phase 1 data published in the Lancet showed up to 83% seroconversion, but neutralization is what matters. Before mRNA, we'd have taken this as a win.
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S1473-3099(20)30843-4/fulltext
"attempting to visit all 92 football league grounds in a road trip during lockdown"
"to attend certain public places within the district, to hunt Pokemon".
From mrmonkfinger's Sky news link...
"stay local means stay in the village, town, or part of the city where you live"
But I just completed a questionnaire on the BBC that says that isn't the law.
Confusion reigns.
The law says that you should stay at home unless you have a reasonable excuse to leave it. It then broadly defines what these reasons are - shopping, caring, exercise, etc.
It does not precisely define the extent of 'reasonable' when it comes to taking exercise, and as with any law, this will be set out by the courts when idiots try to challenge the £200 ticket they got for driving 100 miles in order to go walking. The guidance to stay local will probably figure in legal deliberations as to what is 'reasonable'.
Well I suppose one thing that is clear is it's pointless calling on people's "good sense" when it comes to offering guidelines because unless something is actually made illegal it has no impact on some (many?).
it has no impact on some (many?)
On some. A minority. It's too easy to keep looking to blame that minority because they get a lot of publicity - I'm as guilty as the next.
I'll bold this, apologies, to stand out a little amongst the multiple current discussions.😉
Is there any credible evidence to suggest a person that has had both injections (either vaccine) are less contagious if they "catch" the virus? Asymptomatic or not.
Ie. shed less virus, contagious for a shorter period, etc etc.
And relevant data from other corona viruses that would suggest the above hypothesis?
Thanks guys!
I don't believe there is any evidence no. The clinical trials have not been designed to look at infectiousness.
As a standard thing the vaccines have been shown to prevent infection so those people you would assume are less likely to be infectious, but if people have been made asymptomatic instead of symptomatic as a result of the vaccine then i so not believe there is any evidence.
it is one of the issues I have with the pfizer and moderna vaccine trial design is that they only did pcr testing on reported symptoms so would have missed asymptomatic infections.
I believe that this is also one of the reasons why the gov are vaccinating the most at risk first rather than those who are in contact with lots of people (teachers, bus drivers, shop workers etc.).
I'm sure TiRed can give us the scientific answer. If I remember correctly he recently said it isn't possible to check protection against transmission until a vaccine is in widespread use due to the large data sample required.
Basically unless you are doing some extremely unethical clinical trials you can't infect people and then see what happens. So as a result it comes down to population sized studies that measure infection rate against the proportion vaccinated. Not an exact science but with a big enough sample size it will show an effect if there is one.
There are all sorts of rules against that going back to the nuremburg convention
Thanks guys.
To cautiously use the analogy, any data available for flu virus contagion after vaccination. If the vaccine is "on target" for that years flu strain?
I've had to close my shop yet 2 doors along the locksmiths are still open.
Apparently they're key workers.
Stop it Zippy!
Can we buy chocolate online from you yet?
It does not precisely define the extent of ‘reasonable’ when it comes to taking exercise, and as with any law, this will be set out by the courts when idiots try to challenge the £200 ticket they got for driving 100 miles in order to go walking. The guidance to stay local will probably figure in legal deliberations as to what is ‘reasonable’.
The legislation explicitly defines exercise as a reason to leave home with no caveats. Tickets issued for traveling outside a local area for exercise won't even make it past the CPS as there's no law against it. People obviously shouldn't drive 100 miles to go walking currently in England but rightly or wrongly it's not illegal.
Is this genuine, a Covid sceptic "alerted" me to it?...
Ok, it's real but dates to August last year. He's basically citing it as a new change to "bump up" the death figures....😣
https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-counting-covid-19-deaths/
Vaccine trials teat protection of the individual against infection. They don’t test transmission. If you have been vaccinated according to schedule then your chance of developing symptomatic disease is reduced by 95% for an mRNA and 62% for the oxford vaccines. Your chance of hospitalisation may be even greater.
They can state nothing other than that simple fact. They likely achieve this by neutralising virus as it is dosed into the upper respiratory tract, or reducing viral load of an infection making the person less likely to spread. But those two facts have not been measured. Actually viral load may have been quantified in the oxford study by self swabbing if I recall. But effects on transmission are only evident at the population level.
At the moment the vaccine is being used to reduce deaths (80+} Then it will reduce healthcare burden (55+). Then it will (hopefully) reduce transmission (kids-55) by the second of the above tenets.
Is this genuine, a Covid sceptic “alerted” me to it?…
Possibly the one useful point Carl Henegan has raised. The definition of a covid death was changed to death within 28 days of a positive test. It didn’t really change numbers hugely. You’ll see the 28-day figure reported on the government website. I’ve used it since it was reported.
Thanks @TiRed
So the highlighted text was missing the point really?
Also, " Your chance of hospitalisation may be even greater."
Is that a typo or am I misunderstanding?
Thanks!
Just seen this appear on the BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518
There is a link to a study regarding the immunity levels of those that have been infected.
Basically confirms that even if immune, you can pass the virus on potentially.
So kind of touches on my previous questions.
Sorry I don't know how to quote here but someone said something like ' do you really think it will be over in one month' or something like that, and that's only sort of what i'm saying.
Everything is coming together. If things go our way we will see the results of immunization, combined with a stringent lockdown, turn a significant corner.
If things are on the right track we will see this reflected in the pathway of hospitalisations and deaths - the most vulnerable will start to see hospitalisation rates coming down, which will feed into death rates coming down, which will combine with infection rates decreasing due to the lockdown.
I'm perhaps being a bit optimistic, but I'm hopeful that it will indeed be about a month from now that we start to see the tide turning.
Not the end of it, certainly, but the beginning of the end.
^^Not an chance in my opinion I'm afraid.
Will we see the absolute worst of it over in a month or so, as in deaths, possibly?
2021 is very much a work in progress.
Then there are the collateral effects to the economy, NHS, social care, unemployment and and a hundred other metrics.
Luckily we have a well regarded, talented government that will deal with all this with consomethinge ease.
Oh yeah.😐
The vaccine is just the start of a very long road.
Not a jab at you, just the situation mate.
The lockdown appears to be working at the most optimistic end of expectations which means deaths may start to trend down in another week or so.
That is indeed fantastic news thecaptain!😁
TiRed suggested yesterday - and it must be true because the man on the BBC agreed with him - that infections were starting to level/drop, suggesting restrictions were working.
Sadly there's still a lag before that feeds into admissions and deaths. I fear a 2000 death day is possible.
My uneducated guess is that levels won't look and feel "better' till half term in February, but that would still be too early to reopen schools. Mid-March time the second dose of vaccine will start to roll through, a lot of the vulnerable groups will have had their first jab, and we might be able to reopen more outdoor stuff.
All assuming the infection level of our new strain is not quite as bad as first feared, the government hasn't accidentally allowed in another virulent strain by not banning travel from Outer Mongolia or wherever, and the great British public can grasp the fact that the vaccine isn't the instant solution do many seem to think it is.
Can they not just quarantine the pigeon for a week or two?
The other blog I read also thinks we are crossing the hump, cases levelling and starting to decline and then admissions and deaths are broadly speaking fixed; cases X 10% = admissions (a week or so later), deaths = adm X 27% a week or so after that. Obvs those % can change particularly if hospitals get overwhelmed and people don't get the care they need.
Someone had a parachute meme a long time back. Canopy has deployed and we're no longer in free fall. Great. Would you take it off at this point, not a chance!
Is that a typo or am I misunderstanding?
Apologies. Yes. The chance of hospitalisation may be much lower as the efficacy is higher.
All assuming the infection level of our new strain is not quite as bad as first feared, the government hasn’t accidentally allowed in another virulent strain by not banning travel from
Outer MongoliaBrazil or wherever, and the great British public can grasp the fact that the vaccine isn’t the instant solution so many seem to think it is.
And assuming that our ridiculously high prevalence hasn’t resulted in another troubling strain here. We (and a few other countries with similar problems) are risking so much giving the virus so many human hosts to evolve in. The world won’t thank us if we grow a variant with higher mobility, transmissibility or resistance to the vaccines they’re only just starting to roll out to their populations.
I don't think that I've seen this posted and it may be of use to some - Association of British Neurologists COVID vaccine guidelines. tldr: none of them are live vaccines, take whichever is offered.
but that would still be too early to reopen schools. Mid-March time the second dose of vaccine will start to roll through
I can’t see it being prudent to open schools before summer term. The lockdown restraints will contain spread, but they will need time to shrink force of infection and new incidence. Getting that low, like last year, is important because there are NO scenarios where relaxing restrains with just the over 80s and perhaps even the over 60s vaccinated does not lead to some impressively large outbreaks and a significant healthcare burden.
“Worst over in a month” means; with current lockdown restrictions maintained deaths will have peaked and be on their way down. That I am afraid is the best to expect. I don’t expect to exceed 2000 deaths per day based on date of death. The daily report may
My nephew has been living at his girlfriend’s family’s house.
Her mum developed an illness which they neglected to tell my brother until 2 hours after visiting them for Christmas Day. (Tier 2 , so legal. Just stupid).
Within a couple of days my brother, sister in law and niece were laid low.The girlfriend and her family also tested positive. My nephew however right as rain and tested clear.
Him and his girlfriend are never apart and has been quarantined in a house full of COVID sufferers.
I can understand catching COVID and having no symptoms but how do you kiss someone yet remain Negative? He is unlikely to be taking any preventative measures.
...the great British public can grasp the fact that the vaccine isn’t the instant solution do many seem to think it is.
This is the key bit right now.
I know of loads of people that think the vaccine is the end of the fight, once we have the first round of doses done we can go back to normal. It's not fully understood by a large part of the country that being vaccinated protects you only, you can still be a carrier to others.
It's great to see the figures starting to turn back round in the right direction but I fear that this will only fuel the calls for schools to be re-opened and normality to try to resume from some small sections of society too early and we could risk a 4th wave.
It's been an eye opener talking to my customers. I work from home as a soft furnisher, meaning that customers need to drop off fabric and collect the finished goods.
I've explained that coming to my home is 'not an essential journey'.
One customer said she had no idea that you weren't supposed to travel and she hadn't really been listening to any news. I despair.
Yes I agree listening to or watching news all day long about the pandemic is not good for one's sanity, but surely it's in one's interest to at least know what's going on in a full lockdown.
Close work colleague is back off sick again. He and his wide tested positive around 7-8 days ago and he was starting to improve a lot. I hope this isn't a bad sign. He is mid 50s, pretty fit, doesn't smoke etc.
I can understand catching COVID and having no symptoms but how do you kiss someone yet remain Negative? He is unlikely to be taking any preventative measures.
he's already had it?