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They get shut for two months every Summer in France and two weeks in the Autumn and two weeks over the festive season, and two weeks for skiing and two weeks at Easter and the country still manages to be one of the most prosperous on the planet.
As part of the planned curriculum. 🤦🏻♂️
They’re shut now and Madame and the kids are still working. I haven’t had a peep out of her all morning she been so busy keeping the kids amused on line.
She’s probably on chaturbate.
She’s probably on chaturbate.
lol wut?
Scottish and Welsh schools closing according to Sky. Scotland for 6 months!
Utterly pointless if you are in a school mixing with 1000 or so people a day.
suggest reading the imperial paper
As part of the planned curriculum
Do you think the schools that are currently open to all kids are following the planned curriculum still? All teachers I know are currently looking after double or triple sizes classes… they’re just supervising and keeping kids away from home, for the sake of adults carrying on with their work, they are not teaching to the curriculum.
Scottish and Welsh schools closing according to Sky. Scotland for 6 months!
how ever thats not what was said - thats putting words in the first ministers mouth
what was said was "cannot promise they will open before the summer" which is far from will remain closed for 6 months.
IT may come to that , but to be clear she didnt say "schools are closed for 6 months" today.
Scotland for 6 months!
Planning for everyone (where possible) to be at home for the foreseeable is wise. Proper mitigation can start then. Many education publishers are making their books available online for free. More material and guidance so that education can be ongoing can now be made available, and I’m sure will be. If things change, and schools can open after Easter (I’d be suggesting exam years only at first) that’s a great bonus, and no one would resent the help made available for learning at home, because whatever happens some kids will be doing so next term.
Double "t" in chatturbate and possibly another "e": chatteurbate.
Do you think the schools that are currently open to all kids are following the planned curriculum still?
Yes a pandemic is definitely part of the national curriculum. Of course not closing schools for holidays is not the same.
My eldest has popped home for some course work, her teacher is not expected to be on for tomorrow. She’s going to stay at home, catch up with her course work and log onto the school network for any additional homework. It will mean one less pupil for the school to be responsible for while they are low on teachers.
Aaaaaaaaaaargh
Any thoughts on how to coral errant parents?
Shops yesterday, dentist today (although it sounds they really had their biosecurity nailed on) and now apparently the traveling hair dresser is round. Still not convinced them roadside plant sales shouldn't be a thing this summer. Atleast my Dad dosen't have the strength to start his big chainsaw these days.
What they say is it will overwhelm the NHS that’s been made clear, you have noticed they’re cancelling none urgent surgery from next month. They’re trying to contain the virus the best they can to a point when the NHS is in a better position. They’ve made that very clear.
That isn’t what Vallance was saying yesterday when Jeremy Hunt was questioning him. The point I’m making is I think he still wants this to work it’s way through the population or at least some of it to reduce the R0. He actually said again yesterday he believed it couldn’t be contained (despite the success China has had).
ray of sunshine:
sky news story about how lockdown and rigorous testing - the entire town population - isolated the infected and stopped new infections.
They're reporting in that town that 90% of infections are asymptomatic, which is huge.
Sort of implies if our confirmed cases is around 2k here, then that's around 18k that are invisible.
Mind you, if we have 70 dead from it now, at 1% mortality, that would imply 7000 infections as of about 10 - 14 days back. Four day doubling period, so 7000 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 56k total. Which I guess is the sum the gov are doing right now.
if only 10% of those 56k show symptoms, then the self isolating, who don't show up in confirmed (tested) cases, must be, what, about 3 or 4 thousand ?
suggest reading the imperial paper
+1
That isn't how it works, those probabilistic models on the Washington post should be able to help people work that out.
how ever thats not what was said – thats putting words in the first ministers mouth
what was said was “cannot promise they will open before the summer” which is far from will remain closed for 6 months.
IT may come to that , but to be clear she didnt say “schools are closed for 6 months” today.
Away with your nuanced and understated position. This is a crisis and you shall use sufficient hyperbole until you, your family and close contacts are reduced to jibbering wrecks.
I see that France are threatening us now, if we don’t get our shit together.
Living overseas I fear the UK is shortly going to become a 'red' country with no travel to/from Denmark allowed.
Spain has nationalized its private hospitals, we're paying them £300 per bed per night.
Profit before people! Why aren't we being nudged by the rest of Europe?
Should point out that all the Spanish schoolkids are still studying, just online. Young Miss mogrim has been busily writing English and Spanish essays and doing economics exams, just using Google Classroom instead of a paper notebook.
Obviously not as good as having a teacher in front of you but not that bad.
how ever thats not what was said – thats putting words in the first ministers mouth
what was said was “cannot promise they will open before the summer” which is far from will remain closed for 6 months.
IT may come to that , but to be clear she didnt say “schools are closed for 6 months” today.
Either missed the "up to" part or Sky are were putting words in her mouth. Apologies.
Why aren’t we being nudged by the rest of Europe?
We are, but our lot will probably only take note when they blockade the UK.
So Wales and Scotland are far behind London yet close schools first?
Makes perfect sense if you weighting social and economic modelling more highly than epidemical modelling.
Makes perfect sense if you weighting social and economic modelling more highly than epidemical modelling.
Starkly exposed it.
The economic modelling will change when we become further isolated from the rest of the international community.
Utterly pointless if you are in a school mixing with 1000 or so people a day.
No it isn't, it's whataboutery. You could equally say there's no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don't. If a child mixes with his/her peers at school it's still well worth avoiding the dozens random people of all ages you meet doing outside interests. Including kids from other schools.
Its a mixed message, now the science may or may not be right but the message isnt getting through.
My 8yo understands it. It's not complicated.
They’re reporting in that town that 90% of infections are asymptomatic, which is huge.
Your factual contributions have been excellent but I don't think the sky article you quote says that. Maybe it comes from somewhere else? If true it would be tremendous news.
Spain has nationalized its private hospitals, we’re paying them £300 per bed per night.
Profit before people! Why aren’t we being nudged by the rest of Europe?
They haven't nationalised them, they've said they are available for public use if needed and they've got not choice in the matter. When the state of emergency ends they revert to 100% private control. And the state is also paying for this.
OOB
Professor Crisanti warned that that for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don't.
OOB Professor Crisanti warned that that for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don’t.
Thanks, sorry I was fixated on the line above.
Good news, means the death rates are (typically) overestimated by a factor of 10 and since there's no test for antibodies in people who've had it that number doesn't include people who have had it in the past and didn't know they had it.
That would also mean it’s more than estimated infectious surely.
My 8yo understands it. It’s not complicated.
Maybe he can explain it to you, come back later when he has.
If you have managed to avoid all utter bell-ends so far today yet feel you’ve missed out on Coronavirus rage then check out the delightful Laura Perrins below,
https://twitter.com/lperrins/status/1240178331020152833?s=21
If you have managed to avoid all utter bell-ends so far today yet feel you’ve missed out on Coronavirus rage then check out the delightful Laura Perrins below
There are times when you wish you were in charge of the B ark passenger list.
When you open something and it's using a bold serif typeface for body copy, it's a safe bet it'll be the ramblings of a lunatic.
The internet equivalent of writing a letter to the Daily Telegraph in green ink
The economic modelling will change when we become further isolated from the rest of the international community.
The economic stuff is mind-blowing. Western Europe, and many others are essentially moving to a command economy with governments underwriting all economic activity. The UK and US seem to be desperately trying hang on to what's left of their obliterated market systems. Instead of bailouts (for small businesses) we have loans, instead of jobs and income protection we have benefits, and pretty soon they'll probably try to protect shareholders and private capital. And they say ideology isn't driving the response?
The lag in taking the proper economic action will hinder or even scupper the public health effort. The europeans have figured this out, they know they'll have to do this anyway so better to do it now to minimise both economic and more importantly the health impacts. At some point we'll have to do it too to avoid complete collapse. Has anyone really understood the enormity of all this? I'm trying to get my head round it but it's impossible. And the consequences if they get it wrong?
Oh, and we just heard year 8,9 and 10 in my kids school are closed from tomorrow. Once again events are ahead of the government.
Has anyone really understood the enormity of all this?
I have. Its likely this will be far worse than the banking crash.
Most people seem more concerned about whether the schools are open or not, as opposed to the imminent economic armageddon.
The disaster capitalists didn't even need to wait for Brexit. They've got their perfect storm 8 months early
Ker-****ing-ching!
Good news, means the death rates are (typically) overestimated by a factor of 10
Not sure its that much.
China reported 3% (ish). They may have tested reasonably widely, reported 20% hospitalisation, IIR. Perhaps a portion of their "mild" cases were also asymptomatic. Difficult to know.
Italy much higher (9% ?). I don't know if Italy initially did much testing beyond those presenting with symptoms, your assumption seems to make sense for their figures, and gives the mortality figure (1% ish) assumed by the UK gov.
The other point is, the WHO report on China stated
The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare
as they found asymptomatic cases went on to present symptoms later.
I don't know why the town in Italy, and the picture seen by WHO in China differs so much on this point.
that's the same report I posted a while back dazh
same conclusion, got to use one or two isolation measures like a safety valve
The other point is, the WHO report on China stated
The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare
as they found asymptomatic cases went on to present symptoms later.
So maybe all the 90pc figure is telling us is that they were testing people promptly.
We need a test to find out who's had it. 🙁
No it isn’t, it’s whataboutery. You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t. If a child mixes with his/her peers at school it’s still well worth avoiding the dozens random people of all ages you meet doing outside interests. Including kids from other schools.
My 8yo understands it. It’s not complicated.
Quote honestly... you seem to just be defending a straw man.
The entire school environment could pretty well have been designed to transfer infectious diseases.
My 10yr old still has a rather interesting definition of washing... More often than not at weekend dinner he comes to the table having "washed his hands" but seems to have completely missed the mud. When he eats out (and at home) he'll get food half way round his face and especially if we are out being a self conscious 10yr old boy then goes to wash it off... yet noone would be in any doubt what he'd just eaten as its still all over his face.
Quite honestly the idea he won't pick up a football, pen, pencil sharpener, library book whatever without washing his hands before he sticks them in his nose or mouth is a lost cause as is it most likely for the next kid to pick up the same.
After using a tissue to open the doors to the Dr's surgery yesterday I asked which bin to put it in...the GP just shrugged and said they we pretty much the same now. I used the clinical waste one because it had a foot pedal!
She's got 3 school age kids and told me she fully expects to be infected from then not the surgery.
You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t.
complete whataboutary.... the IT managers kids are not likely to be brickies or plasterers living at home. I'd also expect CaOH to be a rather effective killer of a virus that survives by it's oily covering... but that's perhaps just a bad choice of profession.
same conclusion, got to use one or two isolation measures like a safety valve
I hadn't got round to reading it yet. Astonishing.
I have. Its likely this will be far worse than the banking crash.
Not sure you have. The two don't even compare. The banking crash was a single systemic problem fairly easily solved by throwing a lot of money at it. This is nothing short of a revolution in the way economies and nations across the world will function. And if that twitter thread is correct in that it's going to be like that for up to two years, then it's not going to be overturned easily.
Quite so. So what is humanities toolkit, beyond the social measures?
Vaccine - right at the start of a 14 month 'will it kill people' trial.
Some mitigating antivirals, being trialled in china for effectiveness.
Start building an awful lot of forced ventilation machines.
What else do we have on the go?
She’s got 3 school age kids and told me she fully expects to be infected from then not the surgery.
I’ve 2 school age kids. I fully expect I’ll be more than likely infected through work then home. Hope that things out.
Oh and tissues go in none clinical waste.
In between the dark humour, and wide eyed amazement at what’s going on, I’m genuinely terrified of where this will end up.
The Government will award itself sweeping powers to do all sorts of things under the guise of protecting the economy, looking after its citizens (hah!) and stopping the virus. They won't necessarily consult any experts on it, they'll tell the experts what they want the answer to be and then work from there via various mixed messages, leaks, U-turns and perhaps the help of the odd well-trained journalist or friendly diaster-based newspaper.
They'll then use them at will for all sorts of "other" stuff that they don't like.
Meanwhile, the NHS will never recover from the battering it's taken - the last 10 years of austerity have been small-arms fire compared to the bunker-buster that's about to hit it now. And then it can be sold off to the Americans. And in 5 years time, people will look about them in a daze and then vote the Tories back in again.
#crystalball
We need a test to find out who’s had it. 🙁
According to Boris, antibody test is close.
I'll get interested when it's not just bullshit Boris saying it, though.
I’ve 2 school age kids. I fully expect I’ll be more than likely infected through work then home. Hope that things out.
Three school kids here. Most people in my small office are being careful about washing etc. I expect to be hospitalised from slipping down the steps while carefully not holding the bannister. Or breaking a finger trying to open a door without touching the handle.
For people getting excited about over zealous Facebook spam blocking earlier:
I’ll get interested when it’s not just bullshit Boris saying it, though.
It’s just Boris he’s repeating what experts have said.
A friend’s 8 year old stuck a Lego man up his bum yesterday. Then lost the head when he pulled it out, but fished it out separately. How in god’s name he’s going to be able to keep to the required hygiene standards I don’t know...
No it isn’t, it’s whataboutery. You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t. If a child mixes with his/her peers at school it’s still well worth avoiding the dozens random people of all ages you meet doing outside interests. Including kids from other schools.
My 8yo understands it. It’s not complicated.
Quote honestly… you seem to just be defending a straw man.
The entire school environment could pretty well have been designed to transfer infectious diseases.My 10yr old still has a rather interesting definition of washing… More often than not at weekend dinner he comes to the table having “washed his hands” but seems to have completely missed the mud. When he eats out (and at home) he’ll get food half way round his face and especially if we are out being a self conscious 10yr old boy then goes to wash it off… yet noone would be in any doubt what he’d just eaten as its still all over his face.
Quite honestly the idea he won’t pick up a football, pen, pencil sharpener, library book whatever without washing his hands before he sticks them in his nose or mouth is a lost cause as is it most likely for the next kid to pick up the same.
After using a tissue to open the doors to the Dr’s surgery yesterday I asked which bin to put it in…the GP just shrugged and said they we pretty much the same now. I used the clinical waste one because it had a foot pedal!
She’s got 3 school age kids and told me she fully expects to be infected from then not the surgery.
Your post doesn't address my post at all.
You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t.
complete whataboutary….
Yes, I was giving an example of similar whataboutery, that was my point.
It’s just Boris he’s repeating what experts have said.
Same as "herd immunity" you mean?
International cooperation is far form nonexistent…
https://twitter.com/nvondarza/status/1240291543115878406?s=21
…but needs ramping up.
kelvin
SubscriberFor people getting excited about over zealous Facebook spam blocking earlier:
Yeah, that lines up with what I've seen- there were things like live broadcasts getting blocked last night. I thought maybe they'd tried to adapt the spam blocker to deal with fake medical advice etc but this seems just as likely.
Managed to convince my Father to come back a week early from Egypt, he's got a flight out on Saturday. The nice Egyptian state appear to be jailing people for questioning the official outbreak numbers or suggesting what the true infection rates are.
I don’t know why the town in Italy, and the picture seen by WHO in China differs so much on this point.
The ICL paper claims the data in China indicates 40-50% of cases are unreported.
This doesn’t suggest they had a cast iron grip on just how many infections symptomatic or not occurred.
In that town in Italy, it reads as if the testing rate was more or less 100% symptoms or no symptoms?
For people getting excited about over zealous Facebook spam blocking earlier:
So not an over zealous government. Who would have guessed.
that's the gist of it, complete blanket 100% testing, so they could establish a true picture of the infections
small town, mind... unlike Wuhan with 11 million.
Announcement (of some form) on schools coming from the government at 5pm.
[that info is from NEU updating members via email]
London lockdown coming by Friday, was informed by a well placed friend. Now it's popping up in the FT and Telegraph.
Seems that one of the blokes from work who came in last Friday Ill, has now been diagnosed as having it. I sat near him for the morning until he decided to go home.
Wobder if I have it? No symptoms so far.
He reckons he picked it up at the Liverpool Madrid game last Wednesday.
Thanks, sorry I was fixated on the line above.
Good news, means the death rates are (typically) overestimated by a factor of 10 and since there’s no test for antibodies in people who’ve had it that number doesn’t include people who have had it in the past and didn’t know they had it.
That depends on how widely Italy is testing and how good their contact tracing is. 10 asymptomatic people doesn't translate linearly to an overestimate of death rates by a factor of 10.
You are making shit up without knowing anything about virology or public health.
10 asymptomatic people doesn’t translate linearly to an overestimate of death rates by a factor of 10
Fair point. So all we can conclude, is the face value fact - lots of people will have it, and have no symptoms.
USA/Canada border closing.
If that doesn’t cut through to the “it’s just like a cold, I’ll see you down the pub” brigade, what will?
Footage of funeral pyres of the tens of thousands of weekly dead maybe.
that’s the gist of it, complete blanket 100% testing, so they could establish a true picture of the infectionssmall town, mind… unlike Wuhan with 11 million.
It actually strikes me as being more dangerous in a way.
A virus that can kill in large numbers but remain symptom free in a large portion is going to be extremely difficult to control.
It’d be interesting to see how many of the carriers without symptoms went in to develop symptoms
He reckons he picked it up at the Liverpool Madrid game last Wednesday.
Well what a surprise? Who'd have thunk it? 5,000 fans fly in to Liverpool from Madrid - the epicentre of the Spanish outbreak - mingle in the city's pubs and bars for a couple of days, then cram into a packed football stadium and they've managed to spread a virus?
Well nobody could possibly have foreseen such an eventuality
was informed by a well placed friend
you are Laura Kuensberg and I claim my £5!
Lockdown or guidance
well placed in front of his keyboard? Was on Telegraph website 4 hours ago 😂was informed by a well placed friend
Some french teenagers quite happy to hide and play with police . But overall , people are sticking to it . Today sunshining and mid twentys temperature not helping .
We have a massive garden , and family all living on same plot , so not a big issue .
I still work , retirement home and adult special needs , doing catering but trying to avoid contacts and leaving early . no cases yet but when it does it will be deadly .
Deffo going riding tomorrow , i have all the passes to be out and about .
This guy has a different take on it.
According to him no country has tested a random sample of the population to establish the infection rate. So we lack infomation to make decisions.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University
well placed in front of his keyboard? Was on Telegraph website 4 hours ago
I would complain about the speed of his completely free advice to GTFO of London - but I try not to read the Torygraph.
Or...
the “it’s just like a cold, I’ll see you down the pub” brigade
Serious question: Thursday night is pub night. Do I risk it tomorrow?
Pros:
- Could be the last one for quite some time.
- I suspect our local would be very grateful for the business.
- There are currently NO confirmed cases in Northumberland.
- Beer.
Cons:
- Potential death.
You will not die.
Others may, just because you wanted to go to the pub…
The answer seems obvious to me.
Sadiq Khan's office saying no decision re lockdown.
If, at some point, it happens:
- neither the met nor the army have sufficient manpower to police it effectively
- how many renters will try to escape back to mummy & daddy outside london and, possibly, bring infection with them
Interesting times.