Close the schools all those little viral carriers will out and about instead of being in a limited area. Add to the biggest employer could end up having a lot off work to look after their kids at a time when they’re most needed.
Why do do many people on here with zero qualifications or experience relative to the issue think that they know what’s best, or believe that they have some sort of magical ability to predict the future?
Mostly because this is just a discussion forum, they whole point of it is to just to chat shit about stuff.
Jeez FTSE down 10% is probably expected - Bitcoin down over 50% in a week, that’s going to hurt investors!
Holy shit.
189 people died in Italy today from Coronavirus.
1,016 deaths now with 15,113 cases diagnosed...
Is it just me or are these numbers trending towards far, far worse than anything anyone has come up with so far - even the more pessimistic ones?
Close the schools all those little viral carriers will out and about instead of being in a limited area.
Sneezing on me?
Add to the biggest employer could end up having a lot off work to look after their kids at a time when they’re most needed.
That lot signed up to look after ill people teachers didnt. I have to look after my old asthmatic mum, why should my job put her at a bigger risk?
That lot signed up to look after ill people teachers didnt. I have to look after my old asthmatic mum, why should my job put her at a bigger risk?
They can’t look after the sick people like your mum if they’re at home looking after their kids who aren’t unwell, just in case they sneeze at school.
Surely 1,000+ plus deaths in Italy cannot all be of people with underlying health issues?
I’m getting a bit of a sick feeling.
Is it just me or are these numbers trending towards far, far worse than anything anyone has come up with so far – even the more pessimistic ones?
About 6% death rate? Must be a **** tonne of undiagnosed cases
They can’t look after the sick people like your mum if they’re at home looking after their kids who aren’t unwell, just in case they sneeze at school.
Well they might have less to look after if the government acted?
Must be a **** tonne of undiagnosed cases
You would think so.
What kind of mutability does your typical Coronavirus show?
Italy has a Top heavy elderly population
I don't think I've ever looked at something the French (gov) have done and thought "that's a good idea".
If they are sneezing on you, you'll be fine. It's just a cold. See "symptoms".
If they are off school, a lot will be being looked after by elderly grandparents. Or roaming round like kids are prone to do.
They are gambling on this being the way to delay the worst of it.
I don’t think I’ve ever looked at something the French (gov) have done and thought “that’s a good idea”.
But but how will drs and nurses get to work?
Well they might have less to look after if the government acted?
It has.
If they are off school, a lot will be being looked after by elderly grandparents
Secondary age kids can cope at home alone you'd imagine.
Surely 1,000+ plus deaths in Italy cannot all be of people with underlying health issues?
We don't really know how many people were actually infected. If it's true that most people only get mild symptoms, then those who get tested and diagnosed would only represent 50% of cases or even less, who knows?
My mate is being sent a test kit to use at home, he's in isolation currently with a cough. Being able to easily test anyone with mild symptoms would be a massive help in figuring out what's going on and what to do, IMO.
Verdicts of the experts on the UK Government's coronavirus measures:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/verdicts-of-experts-on-governments-new-coronavirus-measures
Worth a read.
The curves and the numbers point to something very alarming and certainly hint at more than 1% mortality rate.
Italy has 1,016 deaths from a little over 15,000 confirmed cases. Ignoring the fact that it takes a few days to die, that would surely mean that for a 1% mortality rate, they are only picking up about 15% of cases. If you take time lag from infection into account the % drops even lower. Even if 50% of people never knew they had it, the mortality feels well in excess of 1%. I cannot recall anyone stating that more than 50% of people show no symptoms at all.
Has Italy stopped testing or something?
Am I losing the plot here, or is this going to be much worse than we thought up until now?
A 2% mortality rate on a 60% infection rate in this country is more than 700,000 deaths.
Could really do with a beer with the old man about now.
If I didn’t have a persistent sore throat and cough that is.
I hear that, my only two direct relatives are my dad and nan, both very high risk with significant underlying health conditions ... I dare not visit my nan who lives 45 mins away, and my dad lives in Spain.
I'm not too overly concerned for myself but I have to assume I'm already a carrier and it'll be phone /Internet only communications with them for the time being.
but the experts have tried to explain their reasoning
Most expert opinion I have read (epidemiologists and the like) has been at odds with the questionable approach of this government. The government seem to be listening to people willing to bet on untested ideas on how we might develop immunity in the population naturally (we may well not) and using social modelling rather than epidemic modelling.
Is it just me or are these numbers trending towards far, far worse than anything anyone has come up with so far – even the more pessimistic ones?
Current research in China has indicated that a significant number of deaths are due to the patient’s immune system going into overdrive, what’s known as a cytokine storm, rather than directly due to C19, a syndrome that can be treated if recognised quickly enough:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176783/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-china-treatment-cytokine-storm-syndrome
On the subject of school closures, in Norway the way they are doing it is that all kids and students are home for at least the next two weeks. If you work in an essential service and you have kids too young to look after themselves then daycare is provided.
Everyone is being encouraged not to palm the kids off on the grandparents for obvious reasons but pretty much everyone who can is working from home now.
Bars, restaurants, gyms etc have all been closed so many others are off work anyway.
It'll be interesting to see the rate of spread in Norway compared to the UK if the UK decides to stick with its current course.
On another note, my Italian girlfriend is starting to get messages from home about people she knows who have died. It's really starting to hit home now.
I cannot recall anyone stating that more than 50% of people show no symptoms at all.
You don't have to show no symptoms at all, just nothing serious. I've had a bit of a virus since coming back from Italy, my wife did as well, but they determined we were probably ok. We didn't get tested though, so how do we know we didn't have the disease and just show mild symptoms? Loads of people have general colds etc at this time of year don't they?
I cannot recall anyone stating that more than 50% of people show no symptoms at all.
80% show no or very mild cold like symptoms.
I read 80% had no or mild symptoms. Not ‘cold like’ though, just not requiring any expert treatment or hospitalisation. The symptoms aren’t ‘cold like’, and ‘mild’ doesn’t mean a few sniffles, it just means bed rest at home is enough to cope with it.
Just viewed Johnson’s press conference held earlier and “Jesus Christ” he looked genuinely haunted and worried when mentioning the many deaths of family members, I guess he’s been privy to potential mortality rates over the next few months/years that are truly shocking. This is not an argument for this thread but surely the idea of “getting Brexit done” should be put on hold for now
Reading this it sounds like the containment phase was a bit half assed! She's living with flatmates, she's got it, yet the boyfriend was only told to self isolate when the results were confirmed!!
The one positive bit of news today is that they think up to 10000 folks have it already..if thats true then in reality if we only have 20 people in icu, plus half again that have died, the lethality of it suddenly looks far less than we fear it may be..
That's grasping at straws for a positive I suppose but gives us all a little hope.
Am I losing the plot here, or is this going to be much worse than we thought up until now?
My personal view is that it's worse than standard flu which kills loads of already susceptible people, but less worse than Captain Trips.
There's so many variables and so many different and sometimes conflicting methods of analysis flying around in the news and general media it's difficult to say.
We've probably all been exposed to it already, as passive carriers, to some extent the barn door was opened long ago, relatively speaking.
It's here.
As others have said, it's the elderly and those with pre existing health issues who are most at risk if they catch it from people saying 'it's just a bit of a cold' and are largely asymptomatic aside from a sniffle or a bit of 'man flu'.
The “existing health conditions” is a line put out by the media to reduce fear. Yes, all know that mortality increases when diseases are complicated by other co-morbidity.
What they don’t tel you on the news is that “existing health conditions” doesn’t have to be anything too serious. Hypertension doubles your (age adjusted) covid mortality. Diabetes trebles it. Obesity increases it.
It’s scary. If current trends continue, we’re all going to know people who will die.
I'm wondering how much local customs affect transmission. I went for a drink last night with a mate, I didn't touch him at all. If we'd been from certain parts of Asia or Africa, I'd have shaken his hand. If we'd been Italian we might've hugged or French we might've kissed. When I was working in Italy everyone shook hands with the rest of the office when they came to work in the morning. British people rarely if ever touch each other. IIRC it was the same in southern Germany, and someone up there was wondering why it spread in Italy and not Germany.
Anyone watchin bbcqt? That John Ashton coming across as a massive bellend.
I’m now wondering if you’re a Russian bot molgrips. The UK isn’t like that. Especially when going for a drink.
No one watches bbcqt in 2020. Can you fill us in?
Sorry to stop the arguments, if I get the virus I’m going to try and sit it out at home. Lots of water, should I be trying any special breathing techniques to keep my lungs as healthy as an be.
What they don’t tel you on the news is that “existing health conditions” doesn’t have to be anything too serious. Hypertension doubles your (age adjusted) covid mortality. Diabetes trebles it. Obesity increases it.
It's all getting a bit daily mail here tbh. Average age of death in italy up until last week was 81. Not sure what it is now.
Pretty much all the UK deaths so far have been attributed to folks with significant health issues and have been in and out of hospital recently. They didn't just have slightly high blood pressure.
I'm sure some healthy folks will die, but I've seen no evidence to suggest that it's anything more than a tiny percentage. 1 in 250 under 50s in China.. I can wager that more than 1 in 250 under 50s have significant health issues already. And that's 1 in 250 of the cases they have detected. Even if they only detect 1/2 the cases, that's a 1 in 500 risk of dying.
I'm not playing down seriousness of it, I'm genuinely very concerned for my parents, and I think we should be doing far more to encourage social distancing. But let's keep some sense of perspective here...if you are under 60 and in good health the odds are massively in your favour.
somafunk
SubscriberJust viewed Johnson’s press conference held earlier and “Jesus Christ” he looked genuinely haunted and worried when mentioning the many deaths of family members,
Of course he is, he's got 73 kids to worry about
Belgium had just gone down the Norway route. Everything closed if at all possible. Schools from next week. Non essential shops closed at weekends. Clubs, bars, restos closed. No social events private or public. Spent the day shifting stuff out to the cloud and working out how who absolutely needs to be in.
My wife's cousin posted some photos from their local supermarket in Minnesota. Things were fairly normal then a few cases prompted panic which escalated - their shelves are properly stripped. I mean, not just bog roll and soap raided - entire empty aisles.
Northwind - johnson has 73 kids?
Surely an under-statement?
7.3 kids
Anyway, get ready for your losses* - or we all start acting and don’t wait for Johnson to tell us how to slow down the spread.
[* that’s summing up Johnson’s own press conference… “many more families will lose loved ones before their time”… ]
I don't think BJ has ever suffered an actual unmitigated career disaster. By his terms. I don't mean the usual stuff he does that people laugh off due to the "showmanship". I mean a disaster that can't be dismissed with a new catch phrase and that has the potential to end his political career forever.
I think that genuinely scares the hell out of him. On this occasion I hope that luck follows him as this gambit concerns far more than his ego.
Anyway, this is all going a bit ot so I'll shut up.
Kelvin, yes - enough of the jesting.
There appears to be a significant disconnect between approaches and analyses from UK, US and other countries.
Epidemiology and virology are miles beyond my comfort zone but, in the absence of any consensus about the most effective approach, we have no choice other than accept what the UK gov inc PHE are saying.
Proferring views on a chat forum is an irrelevance - and that applies to this post.
What *we* don't know about covid-19 massively outweighs what we do know - based on the science.
At the most basic - and most important - level, I hope this improves the basic standard of hygiene in the UK.
Quick comment on QT tonight - john ashton is a cheery soul....
we have no choice other than accept what the UK gov inc PHE are saying
…and ignore what the gov of other effected countries, and other health experts, are saying.
