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Well if the good people on this thread have been telling the truth since my last post (I have no reason to believe otherwide), Hnacock who is currently on Sky news is bullshitting again. He only found out about the new strain last week apparently (whilst other sources say it's been tracked since September), he claimed to have acted quickly and decisively... .
but we’re not in February any more
We’re not in February. And it becomes a bigger task every day. At some point though, the bullet needs bitting down on… or we have 6 - 9 months of “not quite” lock down that just keeps NHS staff busy, and the economy in semi-stasis.
https://beta.microreact.org/project/kcdhiZuzrAzPb52qmMB9bj-cog-uk-2020-12-18-sars-cov-2-in-the-uk/
Interesting site. If you narrow the date range to December only, you can spot the new strain. (B.1.1.7)
Now look at Bristol, Manchester and Cumbria/Eden Valley. The new strain isn't just a SE problem, it is already the dominant strain in other places.
By the looks of it, a bit in Glasgow but none in Edinburgh, and it hasn't even hit the S Wales valleys yet, which is troubling.
It's just a numbers game really. If it is 70% more contagious, as has been reported from official sources, it needs to be 70% less likely to result in a hospital admission just to maintain the status quo in an NHS which is already creaking.
From the link thecaptain provided...
o Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets.
•L
@kelvin - I'm not disagreeing with you. We now think that shutting the entire world down for a month in Feb would have stopped it.
20/20 hindsight doesn't solve the current issues we're facing.
France has stopped freight. Gridlock kent soon.
I think the actual line is that it's 'UP TO' 70% more contagious
As ever the upper range makes the headlines
And when in a few weeks time it looks like its Only 50% more contagious the covid deniers will use it to shout 'project fear' and resist further lockdowns etc
I thought airvent was referring to the catastrophising and hysteria around a new variant which has not yet been proven to be more (or possibly less) severe than ye olde virus.
Twas indeed. Its probably the fault of the media really, even 3 of the top 10 most read on the BBC today were scaremongering headlines which doesnt help.
1 in 100 people have covid in Medway Kent and still rising.
Note sure tier 4 will do anything to stop it.
<blockquote
peteimpreza
Full Member
“ France has stopped freight. Gridlock kent soon”
Source for that?
Sky news
Only unaccompanied freight allowed.
This could be interesting.
France's ban covers travel by air, road, rail and sea and comes into operation at midnight tonight (Sunday).
Only unaccompanied freight will be allowed into France.
Transport from France to the UK is not affected https://www.thelocal.fr/20201220/france-considers-suspending-flights-and-trains-from-uk-over-covid-mutation
France has stopped freight. Gridlock kent soon”
Source for that?
BBC are; France are closing all travel routes for 48hrs from midnight until a European response is formed.
France’s ban covers travel by air, road, rail and sea and comes into operation at midnight tonight (Sunday).
Damn,there goes the Xmas trip to our chalet in the Alps.
Bbc news had a beautician bleating on about not being able to stay open on the run up to Xmas
So, you cant glue Pointless glittery fake nails onto your gullable customers fingers. Some people have strange priorities.
At least Handcovk sounded angry at the travel chaos he helped create, do these people not think things through
Lets do this.... Yes, yes, yes, ok time for a G&T before we make like trees and offski
Preliminary analysis of the new strain published - as I suspected, a tighter binding to the entry receptor, ACE2, is noted. With other genetic mutations that may have additional biological significance. Still early days, but four week doubling of frequency looks like a real abs significant effect of biological consequence. A similar strain is noted spreading rapidly in South Africa.
Damn,there goes the Xmas trip to our chalet in the Alps.
ahh, stw woes
France’s ban covers travel by air, road, rail and sea and comes into operation at midnight tonight (Sunday).
Damn,there goes the Xmas trip to our chalet in the Alps.
Pritti's confiscated dinghies to be 2021's must have item?
If they did a proper lockdown for three weeks, no work and no shopping, the thing would be gone.
It really wouldn’t. Cases would fall to manageable levels, and I feel confident that a full lockdown would certainly contain and shrink cases of even a more contagious strain.
I’d take the +0.4 for R and a previous lockdown value of about 0.8 (meaning it can’t be controlled) with a pinch of salt. Yes, clearly R is greater than one for the new strain in the South East (it’s spreading) but I don’t think one can reliably say by how much given available data. Schools have been open, there was more contact during Lockdown2.
I feel confident that the new strain CAN be controlled by non pharmaceutical intervention. But a further full lockdown looks likely to me in the new year. If cases continue to grow elsewhere, I think we’ll be closing schools. That’s not trying to be alarmist, but if I was a head teacher, I’d be planning next term online as contingency.
if I was a head teacher, I’d be planning next term online as contingency.
Christ, those poor ****ers have enough to do planning how to get all the kids tested!!
Christ, those poor **** have enough to do planning how to get all the kids tested!!
You have (1) message from Gavin:
Scrap that, no-one's coming in! Deliver online teaching instead!
I fully expect this message to be sent no earlier than 2 hours before the start of term.
If they did a proper lockdown for three weeks, no work and no shopping, the thing would be gone.
Isn't the problem that a "proper lockdown " only exists in an oversimplified theoretical world?
Doctors, nurses, hospital cleaners, porters, police, firemen, a few shops, petrol stations , breakdown services, childcare for the above, some teachers, some cleaners, utilities workers, care home workers, meals on wheels. etc etc
Enough people who have to continue to work to keep society going. Just enough to keep the virus ticking over indefinitely,
Then after your three weeks then it goes on the rampage again...
Scrap that, no-one’s coming in! Deliver online teaching instead!
More like:
(1) school returned postponed for a week, carry on as planned.
(2) school returned postponed for a week, carry on as planned.
(3) school returned postponed for a week, carry on as planned.
...
(N) errr scrap than and go online NOW!
Just found out this evening my 86 year old dad has tested positive whilst in hospital getting treatment for other ailments.
Tested on admission on Wednesday which was negative, then Friday negative but positive today.
This just days after my dad’s cousin died with Covid 19.
One school in kent did mass testing last week. Lots of students and 6 staff positive. School was closed.
So either online teaching in jan. Or one day to do testing then online anyway as too many positive results.
Only just learnt about the tier 4 exodus - just shows we ain't gonna beat this with common sense alone 😒
Q: what have the medieval village of Eyam and modern London got in common?
A: Absolutely **** all.
Did the vicar of Eyam not dispatch his children before isolating the village 🤔
Sadly common sense is not that common.
For example, how many threads have you seen about buying new £400 wheels to save 350g? Just going for a number two before a ride will reduce the weight
Just going for a number two before a ride will reduce the weight
Ocht Elshal. You've said loads of worthwhile stuff these last days and then ruin it coming out with that shite.
Is dissapoint. 😔
🙃
A lot of sanctimony about people leaving London etc
Several I know been isolating for a week so they could go home to family they might but have seen for months
1000 s of students have had 2 covid tests this week so they could go home & probably feel they are OK to do so (as Johnson said 3 days ago)
A lot of very lonely people out there, lockdown is a necessary evil. But not easy on everyone.
If my work hadn't closed early this year id still be getting the train in and out of London until Thursday as I can't work from home.
Enough people who have to continue to work to keep society going. Just enough to keep the virus ticking over indefinitely,
Then after your three weeks then it goes on the rampage again…
If that were the case, wouldn’t the same apply to a 70% effective vaccine?
Not if you can vaccinate enough people as it makes it much less likely that an infected person would come into contact with a susceptible person. Those reduces transmission.
I am expecting an mhra announcement soon based on this,simply as they need to get vaccines out fast now.
Just going for a number two before a ride
Forget an upgrade, I saved enough for a new pair of wheels.
Those reduces transmission.
On a point of information, we believe that transmission will be reduced, but it is possible that severity of infection, and hence healthcare burden, are the real measure of vaccine effects.
I'm sorry I've come on to read this 🙁 don't know what to think anymore.
kimbers
Full MemberA lot of sanctimony about people leaving London etc
Several I know been isolating for a week so they could go home to family they might but have seen for months
1000 s of students have had 2 covid tests this week so they could go home & probably feel they are OK to do so (as Johnson said 3 days ago)
Yup. It's not OK, but so much of the blame, once again, is on the government not the people. How many times is that now? "We're banning pubs, from Saturday, so whatever you do don't go out on Friday night, nudge nudge". "It's safe to go back to work as long as you do so before the end of the paragraph because that's literally how long you've got before the uturn"
I’m sorry I’ve come on to read this 🙁 don’t know what to think anymore.
Hang in there, bud - tough times for us all but it will get better.
20/20 hindsight doesn’t solve the current issues we’re facing.
Who needs hindsight? Sorry, but nothing has really come as a surprise since we saw what happened late February in Southern European countries. We are exactly where many said we would be at this point. Politicians just keep hoping for the best, rather than listening and acting in good time, in many countries, not least here.
But not easy on anyone.
Fixed that for you. We just have to make it work though. We should have the knowledge by now… stay apart to stop the spread. Come together virtually for now. Embrace each other when it’s safe to do so again. It’s not easy for anyone though.
Hang in there, bud – tough times for us all but it will get better.
Most definitely this. The media does not do perspective, and Chris Witty has painted a picture as I have. That this is an emergent pathogen, and that the timescale for its control and defeat is 18 months. We have a new treatments and a stream of vaccines.
Viruses mutate, and this one is no different. But they also typically mutate to be less pathogenic. That remains to be seen so far, but this is early days. But the vaccines have already delivered very strong results. It appears that all established platforms will be useful. So it’s now a production play rather than a science play. A huge change. The timeframe for the media is days. The timeframe for significant events in this pandemic is weeks to months.
2021 will be better. I am in no doubt.
Question for those in the know. If the virus has mutated here - will it just do the same elsewhere? And follow the same pattern, or be slightly different?
A lot of sanctimony about people leaving London etc
I must admit I thought it crazy for the government not to put the whole country on an equal footing but hey looks like they won't be far behind on the transmission train now.
Something I’ve been thinking on with mutation & vaccine.
Every year we get a new strain of flu & a new vaccine. If COVID mutates & the vaccine requires changing, are we back at square 1, or can we quickly adapt the vaccine as we do with flu?
Question for those in the know. If the virus has mutated here – will it just do the same
Yes. And it is the acquisition of several mutations in the spike at the binding to cell attachment that is interesting. The strain has been noted in south Africa.
can we quickly adapt the vaccine as we do with flu?
Given the proof of mRNA technology, this is a soluble problem. It’s been the norm for chicken coronaviruses for years using conventional technology. Just a matter of time.
Im guessing its already spread to other laces
but does feel like we are a bit of a pariah
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1340794762060771329
A brief update from the Antipodes, in case anyone needs a something of a break from hearing about the UKs woes.....
We've had an outbreak in the Northern Beaches of Sydney - which is a collection of affluent suburbs stretching 30km up the coast from the northern head of Sydney Harbour (ie: Manly), to the tip of a peninsular (Palm beach).
So far we've had 83 cases linked to that cluster, with 15 positive results in the last 24 hours, which was lower that the 30 new cases we had yesterday - this despite 38,000 tests being done yesterday (which is about 4x what we would usually do). To early to say, but we are hoping that they have got it under control.
This is now NSWs second biggest outbreak of the pandemic: the Crossroads Hotel (57 cases), funeral service at Bankstown (76 cases), with the biggest so far being the Thai Rock restaurant (114 cases).
So far - we have be tracking/tracing like a mofo - they are updating a list of venues almost hourly, telling people that they need to isolate and get tested if they were there between certain times.
Otherwise, the Northern Beaches is essentially in "stage 4" lockdown - with the rest of Sydney being told to wear masks, maintain social distance - but nothing stronger than that for now (although I think it's coming). The other Australian states have banned travelers from greater Sydney - which has screwed everyone's Christmas/holiday plans (the kids summer holidays started this week too).
They haven't identified what the initial source of the infection was - but it's an American strain apparently - and people think that it probably came from Aircrew, who are subject to less strict Quarantine than returning travelers. All the infections in the cluster are the same strain.
There were two "superspreader" events: a gig at an RSL (like a working men's club), and then a party at a bowls club (yeah - lawn bowls), other than that, they've seen spread through a local Gym and hairdressers.
Apparently we've had a few cases of "the British virus" in quarantine over the past few weeks - but nothing is changing as a result - you can only come here if you are a citizen/permanent resident, and you have to quarantine for 14 days on arrival under lock-and-key. Apparently they are beefing up quarantine with 1,400 more troops (the army runs the quarantine in NSW) - I suspect they have got the message that the public are not going to tolerate any more quarantine ****-ups.