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TiRed – I’m not sure your award was enough for your efforts this year. That is the best somethingion of the situation, with calm, rational explanation I have seen.
+1 Thank you TiRed.
Can i ask, whats/when is the positive looking drop to the right for some regions of the red line in your plot?
Crikey, I thought it would be obvious that I’m a world expert in coming onto a forum like a bull in a china shop when worse for wear and making an arse of myself. But it has drawn a few more out of the woodwork, so it could’ve been worse.
Ahhh....
You did a good job.
...and checking you out on the net reveals that you are good at a number of things.
Fair play 😉
UK pushing higher on the global charts, who would ahve inagined that?
But it has drawn a few more out of the woodwork, so it could’ve been worse.
So just trolling then? That’s a relief really. Perhaps pick a thread without grieving and recovering contributors next time, please.
I thought it would be obvious that I’m a world expert i
Everyone is a world expert in their own life experiences. And for many, some of those experiences have been utterly terrible in 2020. It is reasonable to look for explanations, exceptions and holes in the narrative. Because although the outcome has been poor, without action it would have been worse. Much worse. How much? Well conservatively, direct Covid deaths would have at least doubled. Then there is the collateral of additional mortality due to completely swamped healthcare.
My son’s friend lost his father. And my friend lost her husband. Damn right they deserve clear answers.
@Kryton the drops you see for some areas is the follow-on from lockdown and Tiers. Those are the vertical lines. Solid is restriction and dashed is removal of restrictions. The fact that SE, London and East of England did not trend down is why we have today’s announcement. Tier 2 is not controlling spread in those areas.
So just trolling then? That’s a relief really. Perhaps pick a thread without grieving and recovering contributors next time, please.
Exactly this. Any one who thinks it's a subject to start trolling about, when folks on here have expwriwnced real loss, is an absolute prick..
Wow, thanks TiRed that brings a lot of confidence and balance to the media sensationalisation of the same. When your anxious of uncertainty like me you cant even put a measure on just how this stuff helps.
MIL usually a very strong persona has been in tears tonight. Shes a 63you social worker and the “mutation” plus “exponential” growth headlines has brought what I believe to be a rational fear of visiting others houses and travelling by tube to a head. Shes scared, and scared she’ll lose her job when tomorrow she tells then shes no longer comfortable doing that. Just another way its affecting people.
that brings a lot of confidence and balance to the media sensationalisation
He’s good at that. Most of us need to read a TiRed post after listening/watching/reading any media report on anything new to do with this. Keeps us on an even keel.
Viruses mutate. But that does not mean that the immune responses from either past infections or vaccination are null and void. It’s possible that a new strain may be more transmissible. But it’s also possible it may be less pathogenic. Still very early days.
If it looks anything like animal coronaviruses, this is nothing exceptional. Chickens and pigs have long been vaccinated against coronaviruses. There are 57 approved chicken vaccines. There is currently one approved human vaccine. That’s how early we are. Chicken vaccines, like influenza vaccines are produced annually as the virus antigens change. This one won’t be any different.
So potentially we could be looking at annual vaccination of corona virus and influenza
Or am i missing something
Kelvin
Who is doing this? And why?
Who?
It's hardly rocket science is it?
Who wrote £350 million on the side of a bus?
Who had an oven ready deal ? - just stick it in the microwave at mark 1
Who appointed a failed CEO/Jockey/Tory Baroness to head track and trace?
Who promised comprehensive testing for schools before they returned?
Who said it's just a mild flu?
Why?
Controlling a virus is difficult, requires attention to detail, long term planning and listening to experts then making unpopular decisions.
Why do that if you can just manipulate the reporting of tests?
Singletrackmind - yes potentially this could be an annual thing. It depends on how much it mutates over time and how those mutations affect existing immunity.
Basically everyone is hoping it won't change that much as it will be a massive pain in the arse otherwise
So potentially we could be looking at annual vaccination of corona virus and influenza
Perhaps every few years for the elderly. Vaccines are given to animals for economic reasons. Their long-term protection is less of an issue. Chickens don’t live very long, piglets grow up and develop protection long enough. The length of protection in humans is not known, but lifelong immunity to other coronavirus infections is not seen in humans.
Also once we’ve had our first dose of immunity, subsequent challenge may lead to very mild infection and a natural immunity boost. Or not. We don’t know. But if I had to bet on an outcome, every few years in the elderly, combined with a flu jab.
with a flu jab
So will it help anyone if I get a flu jab?
I get pressured every year by the GP but I've never been able to develop flu so I never bother.
The whole COVID thing has made me think maybe I'm just an asymptomatic shedder but then is it worth the chance of picking up COVID gong to the surgery?
Neighbours got their jabs last week
Chance of infection very low from whst they reported
GP keep ringing me too, putting it off as there will be less fit, older and generally more vulnerable people locally
I got a flu jab simply because the last thing I want is covid and flu at the same time. I know it is a small risk but not one I want to take if I can avoid it
I got a flu jab this year as it was offered (over 50) because I don't want to be ill with a very unpleasant illness, and it reduces the chance of me spreading it to someone else who doesn't want it, but can't have the vaccine for a medical reason.
I'll happily do the same for the Covid jab if they ever get down to my age group!
putting it off as there will be less fit, older and generally more vulnerable people locally
There is this as well.
No matter how hard I've tried (or realistically just not avoided) I've never developed flu so I'm not really bothered for myself so it's really a question of if I should get it to avoid spreading the virus to others.
Getting anything at the GP will be complex as their booking system only allows <2 weeks but they never have anything <2 wks so to see a GP you have to turn up at 7:30 and queue. Not sure if I'll need to do that for the nurse though?
Contact your GP surgery and just ask about the flu jab. I just booked a slot on one of their clinics and it was a proper production line, everyone 2m apart shuffling forwards for what was the most gentle and painless injection I've ever had.
Had a weird 12 hour head cold about 24 hours later, which I'm assuming was my body reacting to it.
Just saw the BBC news channel and on one hand you get the resident prof giving you black and white understanding and details and on the other some guff from Mancock.
The Prof even called him out discussing 'mutations' as being a scary new thing and putting the fear into people. Viruses, as TiRed has pointed out for weeks now, mutate. Unlike the MP's the man called out the public as well saying we can't control the virus but we can control ourselves and observe the rules, and that clearly wasn't happening in some areas.
With the rate of infection increasing in the SE and areas of London in particular its not a surprise for schools to say lets pack up week early and keep kids at home, especially in light of the rise in numbers, so it beggars belief that Williamson wants to take councils to court and force schools to stay open.
Clearly at Eton you didnt get to take board games in for the last week of school
Private schools will already have finished wont they? Is it a 30 week academic year that they have?
There is a lot of pressure from the BMJ and HSJ to not do the Christmas relaxation of rules currently. What's the chance of another u-turn? Personally I don't see them doing one as it will be a humiliating climbdown basically admitting they've completely screwed this winter up.
Is anyone else worried that they're considering reversing the Christmas bubble?
By worry, I mean worry that a sudden reversal after a lot of people have spent money on planning family gatherings (rightly or wrongly) will lead to mass non-compliance at Christmas, with further non-compliance into the New Year as people will feel safer breaking rules in numbers and a complete delegitimization of the governments position?
I think this might be the straw that broke the camels back, that we have to give people time off now for a few days or face public disorder and the rise of a populist party.
Is it a 30 week academic year that they have?
"Private" schools do have a longer Xmas break... but Eton DID send pupils home early this year because of Coronavirus concerns... the first bit of knowledge does not undo the second fact... although it is the "smart" reply flooding Social Media whenever anyone mentions Eton's sensible decision being at odds with what our schools are being instructed they must do.
a sudden reversal ... will lead to mass non-compliance at Christmas, with further non-compliance into the New Year ... a complete delegitimization of the governments position
I, sadly, agree. I have no idea what the government can do now. They've boxed themselves into a corner through past poor decisions... again.
The overseas kids at the local boarding school have to have a 'sponsor' in this country should a mishap occur. When lockdown started and the school contacted the sponsors, most didn't want to know. So the school is stuck with these kids irrespective of what they planned to do and I can't see them going very public about infections. Yet another reason to stay well clear of the scodgers.
No matter how hard I’ve tried (or realistically just not avoided) I’ve never developed flu so I’m not really bothered for myself so it’s really a question of if I should get it to avoid spreading the virus to others.
You probably have had flu in the past, developed good cross-reactive immunity and this has limited any further infections to an upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) more like a cold. I've had flu multiple times, including a lower RTI, and it was really unpleasant. COVID was worse.
Private schools will already have finished wont they? Is it a 30 week academic year that they have?
My son broke up on Friday for three weeks. He works at a prep school. Eton closed early and my friend's son is back home from Eton. He's been home once already during term time too due to COVID outbreaks.
I think oakleymuppet has it. Speaking from London, it makes sense that we'd adhere to rules over Christmas. But logic is out the window. Lockdown fatigue, U turns misunderstanding and general ambivalence mean that a lot of people will do what the want anyway, whether it gets changed or not.
For me, either positively or negatively Christmas is a period we just have to get through and Jan/Feb being compromised as a result is the obvious result.
I don't think Johnson will "cancel Christmas", he's a populist and this will not sit well with him at all. I also think that people have made their plans and I suspect will do what they planned to do anyway, irrelevant if he says not to. There'd be no way of policing it as so many would break it.
I do think they'll issue some pretty clear guidelines on what you should and shouldn't do when meeting family indoors (time spent together, distance, that kind of thing) so that when infections go up in Jan he can say "if you'd followed the guidelines it'd be OK, but you didn't so it's not".
I also think it'll lead to a mass lockdown in January and February, which may work well for him as people will talk about that and not the mess that is Brexit instead...
Not ventured onto this thread for a while. As I've mentioned before though my sister is on the fringes of the science of this. Today's morning briefing at Guys appears to have frightened the bejesus out of the scientists behind the scenes. The positive rate of those tested in the last 24hrs has shot up from around 5% to over 50% literally overnight. Lots of scrabbling around trying to work out why.
If I lived in the London area right now there is no way in hell I'd be hosting a multigenerational Christmas and mixing a gran with your teenage kids.
Any more info Convert...? I for one would like TiRed and others to run over those figures, before I even think of passing that news onto family members in London still planning Christmas in Cornwall with the old duffers*.
[ as bright as a pin, and very active, in reality... not duffers at all... but over 70 ]
Any more info Convert…? I for one want TiRed to run over those figures, before I even thing of passing that news onto family members in London still planning Christmas in Cornwall.
Not yet - I'll post if I get more. She had speculated previously that the number of folk in London with antibodies (that was her main piece of work) was very high (circa 25%) in comparison to UK generally. I think they are wondering if London's hard won immunity from earlier in the year might be losing its effect. But why and why so suddenly......
But why and why so suddenly……
Isn't that the new strain? A rhetorical question as I appreciate you probably don't know, but just putting it out there.
I'm 27, no existing medical issues, am I supposed to be getting the flu jab this winter as the messaging has been confusing.
I also think that people have made their plans and I suspect will do what they planned to do anyway, irrelevant if he says not to
He has form for Ede. I would not be at all surprised.
I’m 27, no existing medical issues, am I supposed to be getting the flu jab this winter as the messaging has been confusing.
Only if you pay for it. Over 50's (rather than 60's) are free this year. Vaccination for flu is really about preventing healthcare burden on top of COVID infections. You aren't likely to be a burden.
TiReD
You probably have had flu in the past, developed good cross-reactive immunity and this has limited any further infections to an upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) more like a cold. I’ve had flu multiple times, including a lower RTI, and it was really unpleasant. COVID was worse.
Well I'm pretty sure I've been in contact with plenty of variants but I don't see this year being any different? Once a decade or so I get some sort of sinus infection whatever the cause.
The question is should I get the flu vaccine to protect others?
I've never actually read the letters or text messages before ... getting any sort of appointment with the GP's surgery is a major trauma.
According to the letter from "NHS England and NHS Improvement" "your health condition.. blah blah"
On one side I don't like the tone... para 2 says "Why do I need....". This doesn't start me off in a good mood (Hint to Dildo Hardon .. telling people what the NEED is going to get you very low takeup of the Covid Vaccine)
However the letter also says I can get an appointment at a pharmacy so that's possible.
It also says demand as been high and some people have been unable to get vaccinated so am I taking a dose away from someone who actually NEEDS it...
The sprog and OH have both been vaccinated at their schools and I feel with the precautions I'm taking for Covid my chance of spreading it unknowingly are much lower.
morecash
Had a weird 12 hour head cold about 24 hours later, which I’m assuming was my body reacting to it.
Erm, that is flu for me... (in so far as other had flu or a very bad cold) .. bit sniffy and a headache perhaps for a couple of hours
convert
Lots of scrabbling around trying to work out why.
Uh... ??? Schools are open. Ask Sadiq Khan what he thinks is the reason.
My kid now thinks he's in with a decent chance of winning the hunger games at school. Down to the last 10 as of Monday though he was disappointed no-one from his year got sent home to isolate yesterday.
@stevextc - glad your kid can make dark humour from a bad situation. The "move to learning from homes" cock up is so avoidable - after a year of u turns, this one would have been welcomed. Legal threats to councils just make the government look more ridiculous.
Uh… ??? Schools are open. Ask Sadiq Khan what he thinks is the reason.
My kid now thinks he’s in with a decent chance of winning the hunger games at school. Down to the last 10 as of Monday though he was disappointed no-one from his year got sent home to isolate yesterday.
Uh - not sure you get it.
Schools have been open since the beginning of September and all changes in numbers thus far have been incremental. No influencing variable has changed markedly in super rapid time. This is virtually a 10X increase in positives overnight. But from broadly the same number of tests - that's the bit that's freaking them out. Why the same number presenting themselves for tests but a massive increase in positives....
No influencing variable has changed markedly in super rapid time.
Testing, kids round here (just S of London) have started getting tested illegally.
Re the flu jab,I rang up my local pharmacy and asked if I could be put on the waiting list for a flu jab and they said "what waiting list? Come in whenever you want" I went in at 9.00 this morning and was jabbed and out in five minutes. Wouldn't let me pay for it either - apparently free for over 50's, I thought it was 65.
They were also vaccinating for Covid in the building next door - that was a much bigger operation with marshalls and specific parking slots etc.
All in a tiny Sussex market town!
Testing, kids round here (just S of London) have started getting tested illegally.
That's not the kind of variable I was thinking of. The opening/closing bits of the economy or massive changes in rules that would make figure jump up so radically.
Testing of kids - not sure that would skew the figures that much.
But I'm now hypothesizing way beyond my knowledge which I've promised myself I'm not going to do, so I'll stop now but report back when I actually have numbers (if I do).
glad your kid can make dark humour from a bad situation.
It's actually quite funny for us. It means he won't see gran over XMAS but otherwise of little consequence to us apart from we won't be able to go riding to the New Year if they wait till Friday to tell them to self isolate.
The “move to learning from homes” cock up is so avoidable – after a year of u turns, this one would have been welcomed. Legal threats to councils just make the government look more ridiculous.
They (UK Govt) cut the cord on that when they adopted the narrative of kids not being safe with their parents and carers. Obviously doesn't apply to kids in private schools...just the plebs.
Chuck in the no free kids meals etc. and they dug themselves in good and proper.
Staggers me that the school are somehow meant to teach with >2/3 self isolating... seems like everyone loses out. It is however handy as kids being told to self isolate can't get tested unless they have symptoms...
convert
Testing of kids – not sure that would skew the figures that much.
>2/3rds of my kids class are self isolating... but they can't get a NHS test unless they have symptoms.
More recently however kids at my son's school have been getting illegally tested and being tested positive. (I think there are 1100 in the whole school - I don't know what percent as they won't tell us so I only know the percent of my sons class)
We are in Woking and pop. is as near 100k to make cases/incidence per 100k
This number for the last 7 days (246) seems to be almost entirely secondary school pupils, a huge number from one of the other secondaries. I'm not sure how they are getting tested or if legal action will be taken as apparently these are children who were told to self isolate yet the school says "at least one" was asymptomatic" (whatever at least one means).. could be 1 or 100
Either way (at least here) it seems parents are willing to break the law and get their children tested when asymptomatic so I expect a huge surge in cases.
Assuming the a similar ratio throughout the school that's 600-700 pupils self isolating so 1:10 testing positive ads 60-70 for a single secondary) Add in siblings (still in school) and families and its easy to see how sampling at this end of the exponential growth can show a sudden and huge increase
however kids at my son’s school have been getting illegally tested
How does that work then? Some bloke in a dark alley doing swab tests for a fiver a go, or do you mean kids getting tested at the official test sites without having symptoms?