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@TiRed - does your graph represent 1 in 5 admissions result in death? I thought it was 1/7
Ceepers, yeah thats my point, what you breath out through that mask doesnt protect anyone.
Yeah they should make that clear if they are selling to the public for “everyday” wear.
They might argue that the valve on that one blows down and therefore away from others and in a similar fashion to the air that escapes around a normal cloth mask.
Can’t be really that difficult to add some kind of flap over the valve that would fix the issue?!
Doesn't matter which way the valve points it's still allowing virus droplets into the air, a fabricvmask catches them. And what is it with the visors old people wear, again protecting them selves to a limited extent whilst spewing old people germs out the side.
Lots of elderly folk have conditions affecting their breathing which masks exacerbate.
Agreed, the valve needs to be covered to properly protect others. Like I said I’m sure they could add a cloth flap to it pretty easily and they should make that clear in the adverts
The visors obviously don’t protect a Others like a mask but again direct the expelled breath air away from others. The virus is in droplets in the air and you can’t infect someone unless they inhale the droplets you breathe out. If you are “mask exempt” wearing a visor is better than nothing.
Personally I find people who leave their nose sticking out above the mask more irritating!
In my head I read the Netherlands last night and there I was thinking the Netherlands was too civilised to be mink farming as well!
they do have mink farming in NL and a surprisingly large bunch of other countries. I'm in DK and they're taking it very seriously and the testing and government response to covid is on a far higher level than the UK. The day to day problem is going to be other countries closing their borders to travel from DK. There might already be similar mutations in other countries with less thorough testing that we just don't know about yet.
@TiRed – does your graph represent 1 in 5 admissions result in death? I thought it was 1/7
When I was just analysing the England data as a whole 1/7 was better. Not I look at the regional level, 1/5 to 1/6 works. These are summed to get England and then summed with northern Ireland Scotland and Wales to get U.K. 1/5 looks better then.
In news articles about the mutated virus in mink, the mink are often light coloured. I thought (and Wikipedia agrees, for what that's worth) that mink were always dark, and don't change colour in winter.
Some old military clothing my dad has used light grey mink. The only living ones I’ve seen in the UK were nearly black. I would guess these farms use minks bred to be whatever colour sells.
From Wikipedia page on the fur trade:
The white mink, a northern European breed, was introduced into Canada in 1968. Most mink production in Canada occurs in Nova Scotia which, with 116 licensed farms in 2016, generated revenues of nearly $54 million by contributing approximately 1.4 million pelts to global markets. That accounted for an average of half of all Canada's mink pelts.[18] Production of black mink in particular has grown significantly since 2000, with emerging markets in Russia, China, and South Korea accounting for most of the new demand. Black mink was first bred in Nova Scotia in the late 1950s and has proven popular as a versatile colour. Most Nova Scotia product is sold in China where it is manufactured into luxury garments.
Preprint of a study on a new mutation in Scotland:
https://twitter.com/FionaWattMRC/status/1324707238515253249
Remember this is a do nothing counterfactual. We have lockdown1 plus schools open. Expect lower curves…
Lockdown 2 is very different, far beyond just schools. I just hope it works.
2/3 a million quid for a podcast, bargain!
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1325180546675322880?s=19
Will the Good Law Project take on that gross abuse^^^ of taxpayers money?
According to leaked docs
So is this true or a load of bollocks?
Lockdown 2 is very different, far beyond just schools. I just hope it works.
It’ll work. There is evidence that Tier 3 was already starting to have an effect, so doubling down will work. But the halving time is likely longer than the doubling time.L so we are not at evens. The north needs more than a month to get down to the south levels. We won’t see that. But a flattening is likely. I doubt a lot of shrinkage.
Will the Good Law Project take on that gross abuse^^^ of taxpayers money?
Because we know The Taxpayers Alliance won’t bother!
Not sure if this has been posted
It’ll work. There is evidence that Tier 3 was already starting to have an effect, so doubling down will work. But the halving time is likely longer than the doubling time.L so we are not at evens. The north needs more than a month to get down to the south levels. We won’t see that. But a flattening is likely. I doubt a lot of shrinkage.
That reads to me like you starting by saying it will work and ending by saying it wont. If it flatterns, it will just rise from where we were already again when we "reopen", or is this just going to end with the north not reopening whilst the south does its best to catch up?
As an aside, how much of the current flattening can be attributed to Wales and NI having a firebreak? (Sorry I forget what Scotland is up to🙄) and how much is due to the previous tier system, we havent had a week of lockdown yet so that effect is too soon is it not?
Actually I read that as, it’ll work it’ll just take longer than a month, but in that once we’ll see X result.
That reads to me like you starting by saying it will work and ending by saying it wont.
Its very clear and doesn't say that at all.
Actually I read that as, it’ll work it’ll just take longer than a month,
Which means .gov are wrong to give it a month. The govs plan is for a month, this may or may not work.
Its very clear and doesn’t say that at all.
Thanks thats very clear although it doesnt help.
An awful lot of teachers will have caught this within a month. That's the experience locally already, sadly.
An awful lot of teachers will have caught this within a month. That’s the experience locally already, sadly.
Certainly not the experience of the three secondary schools my kids have connections with. I'm very surprised by that, but all the teacher infections we've heard of were in September and believed to have been caught outside of school, from what the schools have revealed. I'm assuming, possibly incorrectly, that their distancing/mask policies are working.
TiReds comment seemed fairly clear to me, it will just about work after a month, but probably need longer, if I understood him correctly.
That Times article is interesting. He knows an awful lot of theories and seems to think that if you throw enough of them about at easy targets like SAGE, the government and the civil service, some of them will stick. I came away with the impression that he was using the theories to justify his anti lockdown opinion. I'd argue we've needed lockdown because of the poor decisions made earlier due to groupthink etc, not because of groupthink etc per se.
Though I will add that a friend who is a risk advisor has said that at an individual, even business level, the risk of serious impact from Covid is so small on the scale that it "wouldn't normally " require severe restrictions. It's the bigger societal scale and all it's knock on effects that are the reason actions are needed.
Are you in an area of high incidence MoreCashThanDash? Staff are getting hit hard around here (Calderdale&Halifax) (primary&secondary). A lot of new positive tests in the last week.
TiReD
It’ll work. There is evidence that Tier 3 was already starting to have an effect, so doubling down will work.
The work or not would seem to be more about compliance than anything.
Plenty of people seem to simply want to go out of their way to not only not comply but make a big thing about not complying.
The village shop in Peaslake has several signs to wear a mask... AND it has masks and handgel for FREE outside (with an OPTIONAL donation box).
A large group were debating how to go in without having to wear a mask ... one of the kids said "I'll just say I'm under 11" and one of the adults said "I'll just tell them I'm exempt"
All of this was discussed in front of others .. certainly not quietly and you could almost say it was at a volume to make sure everyone heard.
The other related issue is these are the people most likely to be spreading it due to their specific actions.
I spoke to two secondary school head masters last week (one Greater Manchester, the other Sheffield) and both said that they are really struggling for staff and that that if nothing else they might be closed due to this. They are down to the dregs of stand in's and one has even utilised the caretaker occasionally.
They have been told in Manchester by the scientific advisors that secondary school kids are the biggest spreaders at the moment. Both reported lots of teachers on their knees, both favoured a circuit breaker.
kelvin
You need two bathrooms, and to talk through the arrangements with the hospital a few weeks in advance.
Cheers...
A bit late now, even if I could get the rest of the household to comply which is unlikely.
The other side is my own stubbornness in that I want to get in as much riding in as I can before I potentially can't.
Are you in an area of high incidence MoreCashThanDash? Staff are getting hit hard around here
Eldest is at a college in Nottingham that went into Tier 3, we are in Erewash that borders it and were being warned we'd be among the next Tier 3 before it went national. So not as high as your area, but getting there. Nottingham's rates were fed - and distorted - by the student situation and the uni doing its own testing program though, now fallen significantly.
As I said, I'm surprised that reported teacher infections are so low. I'm only giving our experience of it round here, in no way suggesting that other people's experiences elsewhere are not correct.
My Nephew is studying Stage/Theatre Tech support at RADA in London. His whole class was tested last week and they were ALL positive.
He isn't a party animal (learning difficulties - so proud of what he is achieving after effectively getting no education before the age of 8 when diagnosed). When returning from home in Lancaster in Sept he reported his train was standing room only, and non-mask wearing rife. He was really upset by it.
I’m very surprised by that, but all the teacher infections we’ve heard of were in September and believed to have been caught outside of school, from what the schools have revealed.
Should schools be sharing medical details?
Round here the incidence is low, pretty sure my wife got it at school though. Local news assumed she was a pupil.
Not sure why some on here have got so upitty about me askinf Tired a question, he never seems bothered by them. If "working" means having an effect that is worth while in a month, like .gov said or working is it taking longer than a month, as it likely will and people know that now I think its worth highlighting as .gov are trying to bullshit us again and this will just feed into lockdown sceptics and make the next one even later and less effective.
What are the feelings in Wales? Did the 17 day lockdown do its job and was compliance decent?
We are certainly seeing trends in cases -> Hospitalisations-> Deaths in England - hopefully we can go in the right direction.
Im currently working out whether my mum can stay with us over the xmas period. Sh lives alone 200 miles away, and whilst we speak on FT daily, she desperately wants to come and stay to se the kids & the dogs! She wants to move down here, but SE property prices are much higher than rural Norfolk.
Should schools be sharing medical details?
The schools have been trying to make it clear where they don't think there has been transmission within school. No staff have been named, and close teaching contacts have been off isolating at the same time so no specific individuals have been identified, though I'm pretty sure the kids know.
And if the teacher says "you can tell them it's unlikely it came from school" I assume that permission is ok.
Im currently working out whether my mum can stay with us over the xmas period. Sh lives alone 200 miles away,
Hopefully there's a version of a bubble you can use if rules aren't relaxed. Childcare bubble in the Christmas holidays?
(Not condoning anyone taking the piss out of guidelines, but sensible risk assessments apply, obviously)
It will be fine legally, but the welfare of my mum is the most important. If available I would probably pay to get the kids tested as the most likely vector into our house.
The test doesn't really provide any certainty because it will only come up positive if the kids are shedding virus at that moment. They could be clear the day before your mum comes and be contagious a few days later.
The only reasonable way to give yourself a bit of confidence is to isolate as a family 10 days or so before your mum gets there. But even that is not foolproof - if your child develops it asymptomatically a few days into isolation, then another family member could be developing it at the wrong moment a week later. But the chances of passing it on would be substantially smaller.
I'm not planning to have any contact with elderly relatives this Christmas.
What are the feelings in Wales? Did the 17 day lockdown do its job and was compliance decent?
Compliance was pretty rubbish in terms of not driving to beauty spots. I read also that compliance was low in terms of not going to each other’s houses. How much of that was uni students, I'm not sure though, as I know a few house parties had to be broken up.
Regarding compliance, I think it was a big mistake not doing things on a UK wide basis (since Boris won't talk to the devolved administrations I appreciate that is very difficult), because I heard / read on social media a lot of 'well they aren't doing this in England.' We are a fair way from the border so I guess that would be even more so closer to England.
I read a news bulletin from our local NHS trust saying that numbers had continued to rise throughout lockdown and they were more or less at capacity so please keep being careful and maintain measures where possible.
I know a lot of the local hospitality venues are now completely booked for the next few weeks, and when poorly run / distanced hospitality is a major transmission route, I'm quite concerned it won't have been enough.
MartinH - it’s really tricky, and I understand all you posted. I also don’t underestimate the fact that my mum won’t have seen a single relative since August. She’s a fit and healthy 70y/o.
How long from exposure to shedding the virus?
The kids break up on 18 Dec and won’t then be out of the house until Xmas. For me, a -ve test on 22/23 reduces the risk significantly. We are definitely in a risk balancing phase imho.
Ferrals - I bet those same people change their tune of “why aren’t we like England” now that we are in lockdown and Wales isn’t!!
I know a lot of the local hospitality venues are now completely booked for the next few weeks, and when poorly run / distanced hospitality is a major transmission route, I’m quite concerned it won’t have been enough.
This is where the enforcement, or lack of, comes in. We've friends who own a bar. They have spent a fortune on installing booths and screens, completely rearranging layout and removing furniture so they can enforce distancing, take peoples temperature as they walk in, have effective track and trace, and have installed all these systems in place. Most places in the area have done the same.
However, they say that everyone knows that these are hospitality businesses that haven't done any of these things are are flagrantly breaking all the rules and doing so with complete impunity. There is zero enforcement going on. Everyone knows who these businesses are, they have been repeatedly reported, yet the authorities refuse to do anything about it
While this continues, the people who play by the rules and behave in a safe manner are having their efforts negated by a minority who don't give a toss
Apologies if this has been posted, reports of good results from Pfizer
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/09/health/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-effective/index.html
The so-called interim analysis looked at the first 94 confirmed cases of Covid-19 among the more than 43,000 volunteers who got either two doses of the vaccine or a placebo. It found that fewer than 10% of infections were in participants who had been given the vaccine. More than 90% of the cases were in people who had been given a placebo.