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Well, Germany on National lockdown from the 2nd and it appears France will announce the same/similar within the next 40 minutes.
Whats the betting we'll have dither and delay pre-empted by an Etonian-Churchwellian "will shall not be swayed from Local Lockdowns" speech tomorrow night.
FFS, he has/had the chance, he could still get it done before the kids go back next week and extend that advantage.
Don't knock Brizzle - they've got Covid Marshalls!
Don’t knock Brizzle – they’ve got Covid Marshalls
All 8 of them - once they recruit them presumably. Going to make all the difference........not!
I’m on the edge of Bristol (but not in the county of Bristol - in South Glos) so don’t really see what goes on in town as the office is locked and I’m wfh. Looking at the figures I can’t quite workout how we can get away with no being in tier 2 though looking at the rapidly rising infection rate.
Whats the betting we’ll have dither and delay pre-empted by an Etonian-Churchwellian “will shall not be swayed from Local Lockdowns” speech tomorrow night.
FFS, he has/had the chance, he could still get it done before the kids go back next week and extend that advantage.
He's got the chance to have 3-4 weeks to restrict the growth of the virus and offer people some chance of being allowed to pass it to granny at Christmas. I suspect he'll miss that.
Anthony Costello
@globalhlthtwit
·
2h
The latest Imperial React study shows R=1.6 and an estimated 96000 cases per day. I can’t see any way out without a circuit breaker.
Is that current cases, i.e. 96k today?
I can’t see any way out without a circuit breaker.
TBH, getting R anywhere near 1 will require more than that now. I guess Boris will continue to be desperate to save face and not appear to be following Labour's recommendations, so he will prevaricate until it is even clearer that Tier 3 restrictions are not doing much.
Christmas is gone, any way you look at it. Or rather, the virus will not be at a sufficiently suppressed level by then, so when quite a lot of people predictably defy the regulations and get together with family anyhow, the results will also be predictable.
Yeah, good old Boris, only a few months back promising near normality by Christmas, anyone else remember that?
Over promise, under deliver.
Should be the official government slogan.
News reports about Nottingham(shire) moving to Tier 3 all make reference to '...betting shops, saunas and tattoo parlours' being required to close.
Is that an accurate representation of Nottingham?
Estimated R of nearly 3 in London and significant rises in the SE, SW, E Mids, Humb, means the N/S divide has disappeared. There has to be a change in strategy but the government has shot its bolt on the private sector and regional lockdowns and recent history shows that any policy change will be too little too late. This is not good.
Is that current cases, i.e. 96k today?
Its an estimate based on a random sample rather than the number of positive tests, they remain around low to mid 20k
Hospital admissions continue to rise as well, around 1200 yesterday
Parents back in national lock down in France from.friday
They are about 2-3 weeks ahead of us since about august....
It's a bit like having a Chrystal ball no ?
France even has the benifit of space. Same population spread over many times the space.
It would appear that the Govt have learned nothing from the past year
Signs for cautious optimism that the restrictions in the central belt are starting to bear fruit.
🙏
Signs for cautious optimism that the restrictions in the central belt are starting to bear fruit.
Dont worry, the rest of us are catching up!
Yeah, we were a couple of weeks ahead, so hopefully if my optimism is well founded, the restrictions in the south* will follow and start to flatten.
* Y'know, the bit you guys think is the north, but is actually not 😉
Scotland just had mid term and shut pubs. Let’s hope the slight decrease in increase improves. Can’t see it when the schools are now back unfortunately.
betting shops, saunas and tattoo parlours’ being required to close.
Is that an accurate representation of Nottingham?
Pretty sure those facilities exist in other cities 🤣 But it does mean I don't have to pluck up courage for my first tattoo for 28 days.
We have a whatsapp group on our 'exclusive semi-'rural new build street' & apparently there's a kind of a street party happening on Christmas day where all the wadbags bring out their chimeneas & drink Pimms. Since we can't be with our own families it's ok to be with loads of other families, including GP's & a chief superintendent of the local police.
Turns out the rule of 6 only applies if you're poor, from the bame community or don't have a LinkedIn profile, who knew?
On our visit to the test centre which was 35 minutes drive and 25 minutes standing around in the cold we were not allowed to use the toilets which was apparently a decree made by Serco managment. There were definatly enough staff to have one memeber as a dedicated cleaner and I was quite happy to disinfect after the kids had used it.
I ubderstand the need for hygience, but this will lead to people with covid having to use other facilities on their way home - after for example a 45 minute walk (told not use public transport) in the cold and wet winter weather followed by a possible 30 minutes standing around/ testing in a cold tent with another 45 minute walk home in the cold. There doesnt seem to be much joined up thinking. Aluding to the post above this kind of thing will not apply to the middle class managers who htought this scheme and policy up therefore it's not even on thier radar.
. Since we can’t be with our own families it’s ok to be with loads of other families, including GP’s & a chief superintendent of the local police.
Turns out the rule of 6 only applies if you’re poor, from the bame community or don’t have a LinkedIn profile, who knew?
So the discussion is actively encouraging people to not stick with social distancing and mix with other households, or is that just your interpretation?
There's nothing actually wrong with people sitting around in their front gardens and chatting across the fence, or even walking along the road to have a socially distanced chat with Fred and Freda at number 10. It will probably do a lot of good to be out the house for an hour and interacting with someone else.
It doesn't have to be a drunken free for all with kissing under the mistletoe. The trick is to avoid the dicks who want to do that. And if you live in a street full of dicks, spend Christmas Day on Rightmove!
a decree made by Serco managment
There's lots of tin foil hat going on with regard to track & trace - lots of people are sending in swabs from their dog, puddles or not swabbed at all on YouTube yet getting positive results back. The accusation is that its basically made up / based on a postcode lottery for some other agenda. I'm trying really hard to stay away from it - sorry for posting it here - but its going to start becoming "news" soon I suspect.
This is useful:
From the Spectator - SAGE Reasonable Worst Case planning paper.
Apparently leaked by a SAGE member - presumably unimpressed with gov inaction.
Headline is 85,000 Covid related deaths July '20 to March '21 - forecast as reasonable worst case.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/classified-covid-in-winter-2020-a-worst-case-scenario
The accusation is that its basically made up / based on a postcode lottery for some other agenda.
I'd almost prefer that to be the explanation as opposed to the more likely poor systems/sheer incompetence, given the amount of public money spunked at the whole thing.
wadbags
like it
There has to be a change in strategy but the government has shot its bolt on the private sector and regional lockdowns and recent history shows that any policy change will be too little too late. This is not good.
They have backed themselves into a corner with the lack of support for The North haven't they. Any help above the current levels when London etc go into lockdown again and they will be crucified. It' almost like they genuinely believe it won't happen to their area so they haven't figured it in to their plan.
It will be interesting to see how they dig themselves out of that little conundrum, no 3-word slogan will cut it!
The accusation is that its basically made up / based on a postcode lottery for some other agenda.
Worry about the hard endpoints. Hospital admissions are doubling every 10-21 days. Ventilation is doubling in line with admissions. Regardless of positivity, there is an epidemic of hypoxia and associated pneumonia, at odds with conventional influenza.
Very roughly 30-100k infected/day, 1-3% admitted to hospital a week later, 1/6 die a week later, predicts 300-1000 admissions/day and 50-167 deaths/day. How do those numbers stack up? I have models too! IFR is about 0.16-0.55% Influenza is 0.14% This is not influenza - if it was we might expect 100k deaths once all 66M have had the infection. A Reasonable Worst Case is 0.55% or about 400k deaths after all have been infected, perhaps halve this for more aggressive management. In the UK, 600k people die annually. So COVID19 adds about half a typical year's death to the total. Managing this over 24 months would be 12500 extra deaths/month - about double the normal rate as per April.
Let it rip...I see no evidence of immunity blunting resurgence. Gupta should look at the data rather than the media reaction.
Teachers talk far more than students
Has this person been to a school.
A class of 24
Nope, they havent.
Macron said yesterday that at current levels of infection, France is looking at 400k excess deaths.
He's seen the above sum - France and UK are basically the same.
Im just going to hang around here to see if TiRed gets the same slating that everyone else who suggested "let it rip" did.
I think he was referring to those who say 'let it rip', such as Gupta, who he thinks (correctly) should be looking at the data.
Who is Gupta?
Professor Sunetra Gupta - an epidemiologist from Oxford University, who is trotted out by news outlets to put forward the idea that we are much further along the road to herd immunity than the data suggests, and should therefore not bother with piffling stuff like lockdowns.
Soobalis : That is not what Tired is saying, he is stating "let it rip: in reference to the crank Dr Gupta and the notion of achieving herd immunity,
edit : I see martinhurch got in before me.
This is a really clear explanation of Coronavirus is spread and how ventilation and facemasks effect the spread.
how the coronavirus is spread through the air
Indeed - irony doesn't come across well on t'internet. There is an honest debate to be had about managed rates of infection, but to get there, I would not want to start from where we are in the North.
a decree made by Serco managment
There’s lots of tin foil hat going on with regard to track & trace –
I was just suggesting that this rule was made thinking only about the test centres as a separtate unit. Without regard to the wider situation and the problems that lack of toilet facilities could cause in regards to people having to use other facilities becaiuse of distances traveled. Therefore spreading the virus.
So my NHS contact tracing app has apparently just pinged me a message, but when I open the app, I can't see any messages or warnings 🤷♂️
Is there a screen hidden somewhere I can't find?
If there’s nothing on the home screen of the App then ignore it @morecashthandash, it’s something to do with the the way the app logs contact activity but doesn’t mean you have to do anything. Will see if I can dig out a link I have on it.
https://faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01252/en-us?parentid=CAT-01029&rootid=
Link as promised @morecashthandash
@morecashthandash Check the notification logs if you're on Android, I had to google "how to" for my Xioami last weekend when I had "close encounter" tab appear but then nothing inside the app.
The app had an update a little earlier today and https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54733534 said the score threshold to get an isolation notification has been reduced.
https://healthtech.blog.gov.uk/2020/10/29/how-the-nhs-covid-19-app-is-making-the-most-of-cutting-edge-global-technology/ says the score threshold has reduced from 900 to 120, partly from above, but also because the app now more smartly counts time spent at different distances from an infected party.
Thanks guys - I assumed anything important would be on the home screen, but I wouldn't rely on that hunch