Forum menu
Interesting to see the Wales graph, does that mean you have taken into account their lockdown ?
Any positive news would be appreciated too 👍
@TiRed yeah, I now that and, to be honest, a lot of other people do too. I should read more of the local media to see if i can communicate that a bit more here. It would also, I think, make me a little more focussed on what is happening where I live rather than where I came from.
As I see it, the only advantage that we have here is a relatively small population spread out over a relatively large country. We also have a lot of single user abodes in the major population centres, but the fact remains that Stockholm is a very heavily populated area and those are great for spreading contagious diseases. Living in the middle of it, even if I work from home and stay away from people when I go out means that I am resigned to "when", not "if" at this point. Being blunt, that scares the shit out of me, not as much for me getting ill, but in case I am asymptomatic and I, despite taking precautions, give it to someone else that gets seriously ill or dies.
Wales is an exception, largely because they count suspected not confirmed COVID19 admissions. the relationship with mortality is quite different I am afraid, and I sadly consider the data unreliable.
So Nottingham is belatedly going to Tier 3, now positive tests are about a third of the numbers a fortnight ago 🤦♂️
Our club is based just outside the restricted area, a few Tier 3 members are trying to figure out if they can meet up at the cafe stops.
It'll be interesting to watch the Govt ignore their own MPs on this.
There's already a playbook for that - they'll have the whip removed and be replaced at the next election by less qualified people prepared to do what they are told 🙁
There’s already a playbook for that – they’ll have the whip removed and be replaced at the next election by less qualified people prepared to do what they are told
It really doesn't matter surely people in the North are not stupid enough to vote tory again (disclaimer I am astounded by how many thick people voted for them last time round)
At the GE johnson wrote cheques he couldn't cash by promising a levelling up agenda.
On an increasing number of issues he's painted himself into a corner with no obvious way out.
55 northern MPs making noise is just the start; they won't back down - why should they?
Their electorates won't let them; they were promised action and what they get is an imposed lockdown with no exit plan and grossly inadequate financial support.
It's likely those MPs represent constituencies with a disproportionately high number of children on FSM and their constituents are deeply annoyed about that, making sure their elected representatives are getting an earful.
There is also a dawning realisation of the Brexit transition shitstorm which will be hosing down on them in two months.
johnson doesn't have the means to control this - he knows, the tory party knows and the labour opposition definitely knows.
He is so far out of his depth it would be supremely enjoyable to sit back and watch him disintegrate - if it wasn't for the fact that the UK is in so much trouble and johnson with his clown circus are utterly useless clueless lightweights; political opportunists without a shred of integrity.
This is only the start.
There is no chance of those MPs being threatened with removal of the whip; that will only cause more internal dissent.
I think it's reached the time where QE2 rolls into Downing Street with some heavies and cleans up politics.
It really doesn’t matter surely people in the North are not stupid enough to vote tory again (disclaimer I am astounded by how many thick people voted for them last time round)
Rossendale has voted Jake Berry for the last 10 years despite the fact he lives in his Anglesey property empire nowadays, votes to starve school kids, and is a Boris and Cummings arse licker.
A majority of Rossendale people are really stupid!
Can we try to keep this thread politics free? I realise its tricky and I love Tory bashing as much as anyone but other threads exist for that
What irks me is that 14 MPs anonymously signed it. What's the point of that? Whinging shysters!
Local news websites are reporting that West Yorkshire leaders are in discussions with Westminster about going into Tier 3 but there's no details about timeline etc.
They think they can stay in Tier 2 but the cases are not really in decline yet.
Is there an actual objective set of criteria to determine Tier 3 entry or is it just political?
Is there an actual objective set of criteria to determine Tier 3 entry or is it just political?
Entry and exit supposed to measured on the R number but that’s been very much a statement made after the fact. It originally seem to be based on rising cases being “a lot”, “a lot being a vague subjective measurement up until... well now.
One of my neighbours works in a hospital in greater Manchester. They can’t admit any more people because of the logistics of keeping covid positive patients separate. Technically they are not at capacity but not if you are closing wards to deep clean them. Plus obviously you can’t admit already sick (not with covid) people to wards with covid on them. So the Nightingale is opening to try and protect non covid capacity elsewhere.
Some positive news
Oxford Covid vaccine works in all ages, trials suggest
and some negative (although antibodies aren’t always a good indicator of immunity)
Proportion of people in England with Covid antibodies has fallen, study says
Yeah, that's how I started my day this morning.
It's not 'old' news as such, but I think the hope that we'd all have 1 (well 2) Covid jabs and be immune forever was dashed a while ago.
That said, despite 43m known cases world-wide, proven instances of people catching it twice are very rare.
55 northern MPs making noise is just the start; they won’t back down – why should they?
Much was made of the 'Red Wall' Tory victories, but it was against the most hopeless labour leadership ever seen, and it was hardly some thumping landslide. Those MP's are sat on paper-thin majorities. My own new Tory MP's majority is 100 votes. He's signed the letter despite being a rabid Brexiteer, Boris cheerleader and utter *!
What they will be painfully aware of is that our economy is about to go into freefall. Every day that goes by with no plan to get the north out of lockdown means more business failures, more job losses, more misery and hopelessness, more kids needing free school meals. The compensation being offered for this by central government is pitiful and amounts to little more than loose change. It's a drop in the ocean compared to what's really required to see us through a winter under lockdown. And everyone up here thinks (knows) this will be a full winter under lockdown. We're not stupid.
These Tory MPs haven't suddenly developed social consciences. They're Tory's after all. This is basic, naked self-interest. They all have tiny majorities and they want to keep their seats on the all-expenses-paid gravy train. They can see what we can all see from up here. That, far from Levelling-up, Boris and his Westminster chums seem happy to sit back and let a re-run of the 1980's rip through northern communities again over a long bleak winter, while the South remains unaffected, as is has done up until now. Just to reiterate: 'The North' has been under Tier 2 restrictions since July. We only ever came out of lockdown for a couple of weeks.
They don't give a flying * about us. Even their own MP's know it.
What irks me is that 14 MPs anonymously signed it. What’s the point of that?
If nothing else it suggests that some Tory MPs believe their own party is more likely to act vindictively against dissenters than engage constructively to address their concerns.
Thread at risk of being de-railed; this one is coronavirus - not dissention within the tory party.
I plead guilty to being part of that de-railing.
Thread at risk of being de-railed; this one is coronavirus – not dissention within the tory party.
I plead guilty to being part of that de-railing.
Coronavirus has/is/always was a Political and Economic Issue as much as a Medical and Scientific one.
Unless you want to create a Coronapolotics thread.
There's a sense that Johnson could be removed from office by his own party by December, either because he'll actually preside over a no-deal, or because he's lost control of the Covid Crisis, it will have a huge impact on CV in the UK.
Is the Coronanomics more relevant?
let's reboot that then' eh?
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
🤔
This thread is clearly a reflection of the CV crisis. It is intertwined with politics, like it or not. Don't shut it down for that please.
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
It's already in the post...
Matt Hanccock was asked yesterday if that was presently on the cards for the north. His reply was "everything is being considered"
So, thats a yes then?
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
I see Government has skipped straight to having a Trilogy in Four Parts in the absence of any other plan.
Maybe Dominic sees himself as Deep Thought.
So Long, and Thanks for all the Fash.
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
I'm more concerned that they'll discover that there are no palatable/practical restrictions that will bring the R rate below 1 in the UK in Autumn/Winter, not even close.
I was reading this morning about Melbourne / Victoria's hard fought numbers, they spent 100+ days in some of the strictest lockdown rules in the world. Arguably stricter than ours were at their height.
We're always told there is a 2-3 week lag on Covid numbers after any change in regulations, but I worry that, whilst restrictions obviously have an impact, it's very limited. Like the UK it took Months, not weeks for numbers to fall, and then, suddenly as their Spring got into it's stride numbers plummeted.
Northern MPs are calling for an exit strategy, but what if the only strategy is "wait until mid-April"? Were we 'lucky' with the first wave that it landed in the UK right at the end of Winter?
I think, and this is only something I've come up with myself, that we're going to spend the next 5 months arguing over rules and regs, but ultimately the virus is going to continue to spread until the Sun comes back, whether we can mitigate deaths through vaccinations and new treatments I don't know, but if as I fear lock-downs and restrictions have a limited to negligible effect on numbers, we might be back to the real hard questions we were asking back in March. Can we actually do anything to stop it, or do we have to accept that we can't really control the spread of the virus until we can vaccinate people en mass and are we only ruining our economy and peoples lives because Humans can't accept Deaths.
Northern MPs are calling for an exit strategy, but what if the only strategy is “wait until mid-April”?
I don't think that anyone in the North thinks we'll be out of lockdown before spring next year. And if that's the situation then we just have to deal with it. But deal with it we mst. And not just the medical side.
The trouble is that, while we seem prepared to acknowledge that, the government aren't. They're still crossing their fingers, hurling more money at their mates and hoping for the best.
And we all know why. Because the present economic package for the north is threadbare enough as it is. If we enter a full winter of these restrictions, or worse, then there will be absolutely nothing left of our economy by the spring.
That's the reality
The reality is that what's coming means we're all screwed. Tory MPs in the North can say what they want and write as many letters as they like. They're along for the ride as much as the rest of us. Boris' cohort have power for another 4 years and they're going to make sure they use it to full advantage. They have no interest in the common man or life after the next election. None.
@P-Jay, I don't think it's deaths per se that's the problem (though on an individual basis it's upsetting and tragic) but the amount of care required for those who are ill. A person being in a coma and on a ventilator for six months ties up a lot of resources. That leads to a knock-on effect of there not being enough staff, beds, theatre time, etc. for all those treatments that aren't Covid related.
When all this started I thought it would be September at the earliest that things would get back towards "normal". Now I'm thinking more towards two years, not so much to "beat" the virus, it's here and it's not going away, but to have the data from the varying strategies each country has employed to be able to decide what works best in minimising its effects in the general populace whilst still having a functioning economy. There may not be a "one size fits all" strategy, rural areas will be different from urban ones for example, and while we know the make-up of fatalities, that might be skewed by many of the early victims being susceptible anyway. With their passing what are the ongoing risks for everyone else? Age is a definite factor for example, a figure I've seen is that every seven years extra age doubles your risk.
We'll probably end up with a multi-pronged response: a vaccine; a cocktail of drugs to suppress symptoms once you have the virus; legal enforcement of isolation when you test positive; ICU care for the most sick.
Tory MPs in the North can say what they want and write as many letters as they like. They’re along for the ride as much as the rest of us
I think it must be dawning on even the most Brexitty and Boris-cheerleadery of the new Northern Tory intake (and we're not talking about a bright bunch here) that they’ve simply been added to Dom’s list of ‘Useful Idiots’
Tory MPs in the North can say what they want and write as many letters as they like.
And let's be honest, putting your signature on some whining letter or other isn't really up there with actually voting against the government. It's a fig leaf, the appearance of opposition, a couple of days in the news cycle and probably sanctioned by no.10. None of them are resigning and forcing a by-election.
Most of these MPs are not working for their constituents, but simply trying to occasionally give the impression so they can continue to trouser their MP salary.
Victoria Derbyshire should be sacked
Is there anyone else you'd like sacked for hypothetically ignoring an arbitrary number?
Who said it was anything to do with Corona?
In that case, fire away! 😀
So you want someone sacked because they have no taste in bottled alcoholic beverages?
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
The unpalatable emerging truth, soon to be confirmed I fear over the school holiday lockdown, is that like influenza, children are a significant path of transmission, and that closure of education is the primary means by which R falls below the magic unity. In the absence of other forms of protection than contact restriction, that leaves few palatable options.
I'd be considering prospective prophylaxis studies to look for evidence of any effect of Vit D and even HCQ. I have little confidence in these, btw, but one should not write off hypotheses without ANY data.
Well kids are little chemical weapons in a normal year......
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
About a week. ScotGov are just finalising the 5 Levels for Scotland. That'll be 0 through 4.
Yes, some folk have queried having a Level 0. It's been explained that using 0 through 4 means that 1 through 3 are almost the same as England and therefore maintains some UK-wide consistency.
Just had a look at the figures today and we are now halfway to the peak of patients in hospital with a fast upward trend and the number of cases steaming upwards too. How long do we reckon before we hit the 18k in hospital and us running out of capacity? I know the Nightingale hospitals weren't really used last time but from what I can gather they would just suck staff away from their primary roles anyway so they're more about keeping spread out of the main hospitals.
Definitely looking like we've missed the point of keeping this all under control by a country mile.
The reopening of schools was always a political decision driven by the desire to reopen the wider economy. The government's attempt to portray their decision as 'following the science' was disingenuous. The lack of proper reporting of infection rates in secondary schools is a concern.
The reopening of schools was always a political decision driven by the desire to reopen the wider economy.
Slag the government all you like but this always seemed like a noble aim. Missing 1 year of school for 4 year old from a disadvantaged background could be life changing just as much as CV19 could be for an older person. There's no good choice but the kids are quite literally the future.
I would think that children are highly likely to be asymptomatic carriers. My guess is that there isn't enough data on this currently to provide a compelling argument either way.
We'll see if there is a change in the curves a couple of weeks after half-term.