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What are the odds?
About 0.3%!
HTH
About 0.3%!
HTH
👏👏
How many standard deviant Poussin's is that?
Thanks for the balanced response it was sort of the one I was hoping for. It is such an unknown and living where I am it is all a bit weird because we haven't yet had the masses of infections and deaths as elsewhere so its sometimes difficult to see it other ways from the one that is in front of you. Thanks again.
About 0.3%!
HTH
Actually 0.06% - it's only held every 5 years!
A depressing summary of events by our joke of a government and the consequences.
There is a repeatable daily pattern in the numbers due to reporting logistics.
Monday is always low.
Last Monday was 50 deaths so we have a 60% increase at 80 this Monday.
If that 60% increase follows through to tomorrow’s deaths where we had 143 last Tuesday (Tuesday is always high), We could sadly pass the 200 deaths in a day milestone. (229 tomorrow based on a 60% increase)
You can’t really infer much looking at day to day trends.
241 deaths today sadly, close to the 229 I suggested yesterday.
The response to today's figures will be...?
a) 'nobody could have predicted this'
b) 'the science says we are on course'
c) 'hospitals are coping for now'
d) 'the pesky northern politicians caused this'
e) 'if we all just follow the rules'
I know one data point doesn't make a time series but I wonder how 241 looks on your recent graph TiRed....
D) it’s pretty clear they are setting Burnham up. They can easily impose tier 3 without the mayor but have created this conflict so they can blame him if the hospitals get overwhelmed
Cases started going mad 2-3 weeks ago so sadly not surprised.
it’s pretty clear they are setting Burnham up.
Yep, the is what this announcement is for, what a bunch af arseholes.
I'm assuming the data isn't made up though.
“The Prime Minister has asked me to focus on Greater Manchester” … so, option D coming, for sure.
I know one data point doesn’t make a time series but I wonder how 241 looks on your recent graph TiRed….
Errrm. Come back in a few days 😉 . Daily deaths is hand-assembled from NHS SITREPS. My analysis does not include deaths for the previous few days for this reason. There was a big daily spike in mid-September too.
Johnson has gone big on option E in answering questions.
JVT has backed up the PM against the idea of a national circuit break.
So there you go, we have the correct rules, it’s all the fault of the plebs for not following those rules.
Things are going to get very bad this winter, and it’ll be all our fault, not the government’s.
Things will get quite heated between Sage members this week I suspect.
JVT - sounds like a Honda. More worryingly it sounds too cosy with BJ (- sounds like a prick) Agree about setting up Andy Burnham - sounds like a decent bloke to me.
When they're coming up with infection rates and deaths does the fact that there is a major hospital within an area add those numbers to the stats for the area?
When they’re coming up with infection rates and deaths does the fact that there is a major hospital within an area add those numbers to the stats for the area?
Bloody good question that, very few hospitals in rural wales for example. I presume its homevaddress of patient but not sure
Going to be interesting to see if in using the market to set support we have established a UK rate of just a price for a northerner. I guess the government will be hoping a vaccine arrives before they have to calculate a London settlement. Which will just move us into the next can of worms - priority vaccination areas.
Realistically - where will we be when summer returns next year?
at this point It feels like there is no plan
I know the 3 tiered lockdown thing was supposed to make things easier, but restrictions varying between liverpool & manchaster & financial support per person varrying between them too, despite both being tier 3 makes no sense
would a series of national rolling lockdowns not make more sense?
2 weeks now, a month off, then 2 weeks just before xmas to keep the waves surpressed
at least people & businesses could plan accordingly, even if one size doesnt fit all really, would it help sell this to an increasingly fractious public?
Rolling lockdowns on the Welsh model are the only way. We've had various restrictions in Lancashire and cases are still escalating.
Boris is going to blame people for not following the rules, if that's the case the rules aren't fit for purpose.
West Yorkshire and Sheffield are next on their hit list
Woe is me
Boris saying 22m is separate and business support package still to be agreed but must be inline with others.
Quizzed further on the support package offered to Greater Manchester, the PM says: "The £22m that you mention, that's separate and additional to any other support that we were trying to agree with Manchester for business support."
He adds: "Our door is open to continue that particular conversation."
He really should have explained that a lot better, thats not how it sounded to his own MPs even
Johnson isnt up to the job of running a village fete tombola, let alone a country in the midst of a pandemic
where will we be when summer returns next year?
Posted 33 minutes ago
There won't be a summer next year at this rate.
Interesting question about big hospitals distorting the death/admission rate. Surely it's based on home address 🤷♂️
Jonathan Van Tam, or JVT, as everyone apparently calls him now, suggested that hospitalisations in Greater Manchester would most likely reach April peak levels in the next couple of weeks if doubling continues at the current rate. That's regardless of any measures that come in on Thursday, due to the lag between infection and hospitalisation.
Under questioning, lots of painful skirting around the question of when a circuit break lockdown would be appropriate. The message I took away from it was that a national lockdown wasn't appropriate because it isn't currently appropriate for Cornwall or Kent. So if you northern monkeys wouldn't mind waiting until it became a bit of a problem in Surrey, that would be marvellous.
Oh, and that maybe national track and trace should be accompanied by local teams troubleshooting difficult outbreaks. No Shit Sherlock.
FFS.
Error upon error, delay and discussion, week upon week of dithering and inaction. A government more interested in delivering blame than solutions.
Johnson's incompetence knows no bounds. The sooner he takes his seat in the lords and non-executive directorships the better - anything to get rid of him.
Slightly different - I've been looking at https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map for where I live (South Bucks) and in the last month the rate of infection was switched from highest in the big towns to highest in the countryside. I really don't understand what's caused the flip?
the rate of infection was switched from highest in the big towns to highest in the countryside. I really don’t understand why that should be?
It's a rate based on population in those areas. South Bucks is fairly sparsely populated, so a couple of outbreaks in care homes in leafy Stoke Poges or wherever will bump up their numbers considerably.
Possibly the numbers were inflated by students in outlying bits of Slough that fall into S Bucks. Those outbreaks have started to diminish in some places, or rather, they have spread out into nearby communities instead.
Jonathan Van Tam, or JVT, as everyone apparently calls him now
Following the strict rules of Boris you must obey the three words. JVT solves that problem.
The message I took away from it was that a national lockdown wasn’t appropriate because it isn’t currently appropriate for Cornwall or Kent.
Still don’t understand their rationale for this. R>1 everywhere, it’s just infection levels are a lowish in the south (at the moment) but the south is still on the wrong trajectory.
It seems inevitable we’ll have to have a number of on/off lockdowns when it gets really bad. For a series of fixed period lockdowns With exponential growth you could bounce between 200 to 1000 daily deaths, 20 to 100 or 2 to 10 daily deaths. The time in lockdown would be identical between the 3 scenarios, however the deaths, impact on health etc are far worse by delaying. Unfortunately we are governed by morons.
Still don’t understand their rationale for this.
Is there one? Other than trying to walk a line between rich back benchers who want the government to step back and leave the public to ‘get on with it’, and the public who still look to government to do what needs doing. The middle ground is all about acting too late, rather than being preventative, because then they can point at death counts to justify their actions. Cowards.
Just randomly turned on the TV to Claud Littner telling a Manchester bar owner to suck it up. I wonder if he told Allan Sugar to stop his whining about people not working from offices in the city.
Is there one?
If I understand it correctly, its because they can allow freedom & therefore spending into the economy to continue in places like Tunbridge Wells, Lowestoft and Torbay - not an exhaustive list - in the meantime. As always its a battle of economy vs COVID19.
That was my thought too. Why stop people generating money and have to find support money from govt when it's not necessary?
I vaguely remember suggesting that supra-regional lockdowns would be a better approach about a month ago. And here we are, with my local hospitals almost at the brim, and a patchwork quilt of confusing, conflicting and nonsensical restrictions, tiers and alerts, plus the prospect of the government 'negotiating' with individual local authorities who, I'm sure, have probably got better things to do right now than haggle with Westminster.
As always its a battle of economy vs COVID19
Just a rerun of the March attempts to stick heads deep in the sand.
Dither and delay is going to cost us, again. The economy will not be protected by the current approach. Quite the opposite.
I'll come back in a few days to remind you that you talked of a "daily spike" TiRed 🙂
It was only 70% up on last Tuesday so pretty close to trend really. People shouldn't really be surprised....
Kryton57
Full MemberAs always its a battle of economy vs COVID19.
Although of course, covid wins that, because the more you try and do to keep a normal economy going, the more covid spreads. Medically, it's more like What Works vs Covid And The Economy.
As per the title, maybe a dose of realism about vaccine effectiveness...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection
Seems to be saying what to me appears fairly clear. Early on only those in the front line either through exposure or vulnerability will be vaccinated. Later you would expect the approach to be flu-like, but more so, as availability improves. At least you'd hope so... It's difficult to imagine a more normal life without widespread use of a reasonably effective vaccine.
From that Guardian opinion piece...
...regulators such as the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency have said that they would accept a 50% lower level for efficacy for candidate Covid-19 vaccines. If that efficacy level is fulfilled, we have to multiply coverage by 50% efficacy, not 75%, and suddenly it all gets more concerning.
If, let's say, 75% of the population are vaccinated and the efficacy is 50% that's protection for 37.5% of the population.
We're not going to have 100% of the population being vaccinated and 100% efficacy.
FDA approval is not approval for use in the UK, at least not yet, but even if it was, had you expected 100/100?
Edit: I'm afraid the best you can hope for is a return to a life 'more' normal for 'most' people. If anyone expected anything else they're just kidding themselves. Life is always a numbers game.
UK is a member of the EMA-FDA Mutual Recognition treaty. So FDA approval should speed things up.
That article is crap on so many levels for someone with such an esteemed background. He's talking as if there will be one vaccine and did he really expect or think that others in the field expected a vaccine that has been hastily designed in under a year, for a virus family that we've never made effective vaccines for in the past - to be as effective as your standard flu vaccine?
This is why the whole western response to this is going tits up, we're either led by dithering boomers that are frightened of their own shadows or corrupt incompetents like Johnson.
UK is a member of the EMA-FDA Mutual Recognition treaty
Is that still the case post-Brexit?