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Because if most of the admissions are for people who havent had the jab then it underlines the vaccines value
But that won't necessarily be the case.
- Most at risk people will have had two jabs. These people will still make up a large proportion of those hospitalised.
- Eventually a huge majority of adults with have two jabs, so most people admitted will have had two jabs.
These aren't signs of a lack of protection offered by vaccines, but are in fact the expected results of a successful vaccine roll out.
Low total admissions is the biggest sign the vaccines are working. The proportion of those admissions being vaccinated people doesn't mean what some might take it to mean. I'd publish those figures, but not shout about them, for that reason.
The last thing i want to be hearing is lots of people (say a third like your example) being admitted who have had both jabs.
Well, that's pretty much what I would be expecting. And for the proportion to increase a the rollout reaches more and more people (all the while reducing the ratio of cases:admissions).
It would completely undermine things.
It might well do, not everyone would understand, so why publicise it?
.
FFS I can't embed this. Israel the one to watch. Restrictions lifted on June 1st. Still using masks though...
Just yesterday, my 12.5yo refused to go down a shop aisle because it was “too crowded”.
I do the same, to maintain social distancing.
WHY ARE WE NOT HEARING THE GOOD OR BAD NEWS STORIES
we are, it's on virtually every news bulletin, on the MSM websites, the Gov website. Every day - cases, hospitalisations, deaths, vaccination numbers......
If that is the case Nobeerinthefridge then why are so many complaining about cases going up?
In answer, here's what I wrote yesterday
24K new cases today – a weekend, when reporting is low. 174K new cases in the last 7 days (28/6 to 4/7) – that’s a 66.9% increase over the week before (21/7 to 27/7)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I predict there will be 70-100K new cases per day by the end of the month. Half a million plus new cases per week.
There were 122 deaths this week – allowing for a 3 week case to death evolution, and looking back at cases from 3 weeks ago there were around 8000 cases being reported per day. If 8K per day leads to 122 deaths per week in 3 weeks time, the 24K cases per day currently will result in around 370 deaths per week 3 weeks later, and the 70K cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
And that’s without long covid, etc.
Yes, it’s lower than it was before vax started having an effect (about 0.25% cases result in deaths by my calc) but how big a number do you need it to be to accept this is not over.
The issue is that deaths lag cases by about 3 weeks. So yes, deaths are low now but we're already on the escalator, and those deaths in 3 weeks are already wired in. As are the ones in 6 weeks time if we don't act to cut transmission.
Disclaimers
1/ that's the back of the envelope calc, I'm not a proper modeller. We'll see how accurate it is in 3 weeks time by the pile of bodies (TM the PM). I did a follow up after and I think it could be worse than my estimate.
2/ Factors against that rate continuing - increased vaccinations, acquired immunity, etc., making the death % lower. End of school year reducing in school transmission which creates a network of infection through the country which is then carried home to Mum and Dad. At the moment I don't think adults are largely infecting adults (community events, Euro semi's, etc. aside) - it's transferring via kids.
3/ Factor that may make the rate increase - removal of restrictions and a wild end of lockdown party / shopping trip with no masks or SD and we no longer rely on kids to transmit, we'll be passing to each other directly.
Some old data...
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403293596556607488?s=20
That looks like the more severe the result, the more likely an individual was to be double vaccinated... but that's because at first we targeted vaccinations at people most at risk of a severe result... these people all had their chances much improved, but are still more at risk than others.
and re the numbers dying / in hospital that have had 2 jabs.
Virtually everyone that dies in a car accident is wearing a seatbelt. Do you conclude seatbelt wearing is the issue?
How many has it saved is the question - in January about 2% of cases were resulting in deaths. Now it's 0.25%. It's not all due to vaccination, but that 85+% reduction and a mass vaccination program is not coincidence either.
Indeed. The vaccination program is saving lives. And reducing admissions. It is that which can be held up as a success, and a reason to keep vaccinating, and allows us to open up more, not the proportion of vaccinated/unvaccinated being admitted.
Sadly, the vaccine roll out is not yet at the stage where it is slowing transmission enough for us not to need keep some other measures. It probably can't be until we vaccinate teens under 18. But for "reasons" we're not waiting for that. We'll know at the end of September if that was the right call.
Older, vaccinated people are still those at greatest risk of hospitalisation/death. Remember the vaccine is not 100% effective, so for every 1000 people you vaccinate, there are 100 who remain at risk of symptomatic illness, and a smaller % at risk of hospitalisation.
Cases are still important, because you know that if there are tens of thousands of cases out there in the community every day, the chances of someone who is vulnerable, either unvaccinated or vaccinated coming into contact with the virus is higher.
It's not a reason to lock down, but it is a reason to continue with relatively low impact measures such as mask wearing/some social distancing.
The seatbelt analogy is a good one, because you also see that, despite the massive success of seatbelts in reducing mortality from car accidents, manufacturers and governments continue to look for ways to improve safety, either via research into car and road design, or mildly inconvenient stuff like asking people to not text while driving.
And, of course, the aim is to reduce mortality, but also serious injury from car accidents, which places an ongoing burden on the NHS, as well as blighting the lives of those affected. We don't know the full impact of Long Covid, or the long term effects of severe Covid infection, but there are hints that it could be significant.
Don’t ignore the “not hospitalised but not recovered” people either, however many they are (a bit of a statistical black hole there).
Further:
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1412033347048677386?s=20
It’s not a reason to lock down, but it is a reason to continue with relatively low impact measures such as mask wearing/some social distancing.
This.
Quick question if anyone knows the answer. I'm not registered for a GP so haven't had my vaccine yet. I can now go for a drop in in Scotland. Will I have proof of my vaccination if I do this? Like through an app or NHS or are the drop ins not linked to your data?
Thanks
It’s not a reason to lock down, but it is a reason to continue with relatively low impact measures such as mask wearing/some social distancing.
Highlight of a very well worded post
I’m not registered for a GP...
Not ever? Or not since you moved?
I can now go for a drop in in Scotland. Will I have proof of my vaccination if I do this? Like through an app or NHS or are the drop ins not linked to your data?
They'll use your details to link you to your NHS/CHI number, if you have one.
Proof up there is a printed document, not via an app (for now).
It’s not a reason to lock down, but it is a reason to continue with relatively low impact measures such as mask wearing/some social distancing.
The problem is when it comes to mask wearing or social distancing, the impact it has is to a degree down to someones opinion. Social distancing has not been low impact for me missing my parents or my parents who have only seen their 2 year old grandson a couple of times. Mask wearing means living in a world of increased isolation. Maybe these are necessary measures in the short term but trivialising their impact is probably unhelpful.
They did say "some social distancing"... not "keep families apart". We are already at the stage where parents can meet up with us, aren't we? We met up with our kids' grandparents for the first time in 18 months recently. Was very welcome... the normal "haven't you grown" comments had extra meaning. Going to stay with them in August. No one is suggesting that is going to be prevented or advised against this summer, are they? I really feel for people with family abroad though... that is going to stay very difficult while we allow case rates to run higher than just about every other country.
I took "some social distancing" to mean things like... queuing with gaps between us at the supermarket... not being 3 deep ordering at the bar... sitting apart waiting to see the GP... waiting outside the barber's.... that kind of thing.
To be clear, 'some social distancing' in my post doesn't cover what you refer to. It's perfectly right that you should be able to visit relatives, and it has been allowed for some time, although if they are particularly vulnerable, then there are sensible things you can do to mitigate that risk - tests/trying to lower your personal risk in the run-up to a visit, that kind of thing.
Mask wearing is inconvenient, slightly uncomfortable at times, and yes, it does hinder some social activities, but not really that much.
My suspicion is that plenty of businesses would like the mask mandate and social distancing to stay, as there will be customers who are currently happy to visit them in a more controlled environment, but will be giving them a wide berth from the 19th onwards if it is a maskless free-for-all.
Not sure I can bare Boris' briefing about "Freedom Day" at whatever time it's supposed to be +30mins or so as he always arrives late.
Hearing him letting indoor masks go along with social distancing, then telling us he is following the science, might well endanger the life on the device I'm watching the briefing on!
Id respect him a bit more if he admitted herd immunity hopes, letting Delta rip through society in the summer and letting bodies pile up so we can all go on our hollibobs without our "liberties" being taken away.
Here's hoping this wreckless plan comes back to bite him hard on the arse.
Here’s hoping this wreckless plan comes back to bite him hard on the arse.
I hope it doesn't... because that means it'll hurt a great many people, and the worst that can happen to him is that he goes on to make lots of money being amusing as an after dinner speaker. It won't leave much of a bite mark on him. So, I hope this "winging it" approach to the summer doesn't result in another broken up academic year for young people, long term loss of health for lots of middle age people, and loss of life for many thousands of older people. I hope Johnson strikes it lucky and gets away with the gamble, and that we all do as well.
Well that's all clear then. Lots of helpful advice in there...
Wear a mask on the tube, don't wear a mask on a mainline service. Or something like that.
The NHS is an emergency service, it can cope with any level of admissions. No mention of all the non emergency treatment that people are waiting for.
Both scientists said that they would wear a mask indoors in crowded places to help protect others. No straight answer from the PM about if/when he'd wear a mask.
EDIT: He's now said he would wear a mask indoors, in the same situations described by the scientists. They've nudged him nicely there, haven't they.
Hearing him letting indoor masks go along with social distancing, then telling us he is following the science, might well endanger the life on the device I’m watching the briefing on!
Countered by Whitty & Valance though, who are quite clear that mask wearing albeit not compulsory should be:
a) In an indoor/crowded space
b) If it helps protect a venerable person you are aware of
c) As a courtesy if asked to.
Its its good enough for Chris Whitty its good enough for me.
Also noted, "...precaution for the Winter period..." It's going to change if the NHS starts to get hit.
Politically then - how many times is Boris going to state words to the effect its our choice AKA its our fault if we don't and we spread the disease.
Beth Rigby on the absolute right track to call Boris out on his refusing to state there will not be a reoccurrence of measures, and his recklessness which he refer to as a removal of government dictat and trust in the people - exact what you'd expect from a libertarian .
Did I just watch a man who refuses to disclose the number of illegitimate children of his there are running around tell the nation about ‘the need for personal responsibility?
I think that, as usual, Marina is probably bang on…
https://twitter.com/marinahyde/status/1412082917505916930?s=21
To be fair... would you want the world knowing that he was your father?
Did I just watch a man who refuses to disclose the number of illegitimate children of his there are running around tell the nation about ‘the need for personal responsibility?
Pretty much spot on.
The subtitle should just have said 'Boris is a c***'
I know I'm not the only one on here a bit nervous about going into shops after the the 19th with a significant uptick in non mask wearing... and the virus.
Personally my attitude to people in shops not wearing them through the pandemic has been polite, non confrontational avoidance. That's how I will continue.
The last thing I want is an argument with someone not wearing a mask a few inches from my face, shouting at me.
For me personally it's the best way to handle shopping etc. I first "test wore" masks outdoors/ in shops in early March last year and did feel a bit daft wearing one back then.
Now? Couldn't care less and I also know a significant amount of others will continue to wear them anyway.
Can't see me not wearing them in shops till next Spring in all probability.
From the BBC Live summary, his argument for opening up now is contradictory. He has great faith in what vaccinations are doing, but even though delaying the complete relaxing of restrictions until a later date would mean more 18+ would be double jabbed (currently mid September estimate) and we would hopefully jump on the 12-16 vaccination bandwagon, he still thinks Covid has an advantage in winter.
Covid is not seasonal, he has proof in the very country he supposedly runs, unlike this time last year Delta is spreading and increasing hospital admissions.
Time to think about ordering some ffp3 masks, let the liberty craver bodies pile high, not much point wearing basic coverings much longer which protect others if I'm infected.
I'm not stopping wearing my mask. Have just got some more good filters on order for my face fit one.
Not at the level of a respirator but face fit and near hepa filtration will do me.
I will continue to be polite and block the exhalation vents though.
Will recommend respro masks and their pro fit accessory. They are not certified for viruses but when i can't smell someone's perfume when wearing it in a shop which when i get outside it is powerful i figure it is going to be pretty decent
I took “some social distancing” to mean things like… queuing with gaps between us at the supermarket… not being 3 deep ordering at the bar
I hope some places will continue with table service. Not just from a social distancing perspective but also because it's very civilised.
Under normal circumstances I’d be quite happy for Boris to usher in his Darwinian agenda, but I doubt any subsequent vaccine-resistant strain will limit itself to the libertarian, mask-refusenik bell-ends.
If it did, this would represent an ideal opportunity to cleanse the gene pool
Did I just watch a man who refuses to disclose the number of illegitimate children of his there are running around tell the nation about ‘the need for personal responsibility?
While I dont disagree he is a tard, why on earth is disclosing how many children he has to the nation is a responsibility he should do?
Didn't know we had to do that, where do I go to publicly announce how many I have?
I really hope the idiot tax kicks in on the 19th July.
All the w-anchors who use the words muzzles, face nappies and think it’s one great big conspiracy.
I for one will still be cautious to a degree and wait for this hopefully exit wave to ease.
Interestingly both easyJet and Ryanair have said mask wearing will still be mandatory on board after the 19th.
Larry… you’re missing the point.
I couldn’t give a toss* how many illegitimate kids he’s got. Though we are aware there are quite a few.
I do, however, object to being lectured on ‘the need for personal responsibility’ by a man who can’t master the basic fundamentals of contraception. On multiple occasions. It’s not difficult, is it?
What does that say about his attitude to ‘the need for personal responsibility‘?
* see what I did there?
Just got back from a ride, did I miss anything important?
when i can’t smell someone’s perfume when wearing it in a shop which when i get outside it is powerful i figure it is going to be pretty decent
I expect so, although the molecules that you smell from perfume are very small in comparison to viruses, let alone the tiny droplets that contain them, so no-one should panic if they can smell a bit of Brut through their mask in a crowded place.
Edit: reply to earlier post: I did a walk in for my second. The NHS online booking service knew I'd had it and I didn't need to manually cancel.
Suggest you find out your NHS number before you go. It's easy and will make it easier for the staff at the centre you go to.
Also it might be time to register with a GP?
I first “test wore” masks outdoors/ in shops in early March last year and did feel a bit daft wearing one back then.
Now? Couldn’t care less and I also know a significant amount of others will continue to wear them anyway.
Can’t see me not wearing them in shops till next Spring in all probability.
Same here, was wearing a mask in early March and was self-conscious the first time in the supermarket but I wasn't the only one. I'll continue wearing one all summer too as I fear we will be back to near-full restrictions again this autumn and winter.
Covid is moderately seasonal according to a TV report here. The micro-drops the virus hangs in the air in dry out faster in dry air, thus the viral load falls faster in dry air. The virus survives best in cool humid air.
I'm off for a PCR test in the morning, I have quite a few of the symptoms now being stated for the delta variant (despite being double jabbed) and one of the kids has had pretty much all of them. Bit mad that the NHS/government website hasn't been updated with the new info, it's still only listing three symptoms and at least one of those isn't common any more apparently.
I hope some places will continue with table service. Not just from a social distancing perspective but also because it’s very civilised.
Been a standard feature of bars in N America and Europe as long as I can remember - it is much more civilised. We might have to start tipping as a culture though 🥺
Covid is moderately seasonal according to a TV report here.
Maybe. But Delta spreads well enough in the summer here.
Been a standard feature of bars in N America and Europe as long as I can remember
Yes I've always preferred bars in Europe.
I'm revising my earlier estimates
Sir Patrick Vallance said doubling rate is around 9 days. We currently have about 25K new cases per day.
I said we'd be at 70-100K new cases per day by the end of the month. Based on SPV's number we'll be at 100K cases a few days after we remove restrictions and THEN it'll really start to spread. If that doubling rate continues we'll be closer to 200K new cases per day by the end of the month.
I really don't get the decision to make it individual choice on the back of that data.
Larry… you’re missing the point.
I think you'll find you are.
Having children out of wedlock or through having an affair is not a lack of or poor responsibility. That's a choice or morals issue depending on the situation.
Not caring for the child is a failure of responsibility which you have no scooby doo as to whether they are or not and that doesn't mean reading them a bedtime story.
I really don’t get the decision to make it individual choice on the back of that data.
That’s because you care what happens.
theotherjonv
Full Member
I’m revising my earlier estimatesSir Patrick Vallance said doubling rate is around 9 days. We currently have about 25K new cases per day.
I said we’d be at 70-100K new cases per day by the end of the month. Based on SPV’s number we’ll be at 100K cases a few days after we remove restrictions and THEN it’ll really start to spread. If that doubling rate continues we’ll be closer to 200K new cases per day by the end of the month.
I really don’t get the decision to make it individual choice on the back of that data.
Ouch.
Just restocked up on masks (ffp3) and IPA for family after reading that. Was going to replenish soon anyway but sooner rather than later now.
I've no problem hearing bad news mind you, much prefer that than blind optimism.👍
The Tory MP on Newsnight was great. We've broken the link between infections and deaths etc. Qualified by there were >25k new infections today but only 9 deaths reported!!
And face masks were a violation of your civil liberties
🤦
Cases doubling every 7-10 days. Admissions about every 4 weeks. Deaths are tracking admissions at a steady 8x lower (so 12.5%). Comparing this with the same point in Wave 2, we have about the same number of cases, 3x lower admissions and 8x lower deaths. Vaccines have pushed cases into the younger population (highly) and they do not have the same morbidity and mortality. The deaths(admissions) reflects relatively unchanged risk factors for death. the admissions(cases) is now no longer linear - it is in fact roughly a square root power law.
It's a very different place to the last unlocking. We shall see how those admissions grow. I'll add the plot tomorrow...
I'm just pleased that Sajid Javid has Got Covid Done.
I’m just pleased that Sajid Javid has Got Covid Done.
A TITAN amongst us mere mortals
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I’m just pleased that Sajid Javid has Got Covid Done.
TBH after the Hancock Affair, it’s not like any they’re going to be able to tell anyone what to do.
I really don’t get the decision to make it individual choice on the back of that data.
Whether you like it or not, it’s not the only data “informing” the decision making.
2nd jab for me tomorrow, I tend not to mix with gate lickers anyway so hopefully by the time I’m exposed I’ll have some decent protection against illness. Once was enough.
Still looks like a lot of people to be thrown under the bus to me.
Just spotted something curious in the Spectator article on “how bad will the third wave be” and ignoring the usual political bias. And I’m in no position to critique the scientific robustness of the article.
Aside from suggesting 8500 deaths to the end of the year. There’s this;
If the transmissibility rate was higher than I have predicted, would it pose a serious risk? The short answer is no. The situation would not really even change if Delta were twice as infectious instead – the PCCF shows that that would cost only a further 500 lives.</p>
<p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal">Not proceeding with Step 4 and staying as we are in Step 3 until the spring of next year would reduce the peak of infections at the expense of drawing the third wave out into 2022. While infections would peak at a lower level, the PCCF model suggests the number of deaths would only fall by around 2,000.
Is it reasonable to suggest the the Delta variants transmissibility rate is so high that there’s not much room for that to get worse?
*definitely not a statement
And face masks were a violation of your civil liberties
Luckily the vast majority of people I know regard wearing a face mask as the embodiment of civil responsibility.
Funny how one thing creates such different responses.
I read somewhere that the R value for the Delta variant was reckoned to be around 7 😳
I read somewhere that the R value for the Delta variant was reckoned to be around 7 😳
One infected person went to a child's birthday party over here.... resulted in all 42 other attendees of the party becoming infected.
I would be amazed if it was a low as 7
I wake up nervous today. After a (poor) nights sleep this “let it rip” process seems far biased toward political and economical gain than it does our health. Does anyone understand Long Covid enough yet to counter the argument for 100k-200k cases a day? It feels as though we are now all duty bound to let ourselves and our kids to be expose to the virus, but to what future? It feels almost a criminally insane science experiment similar to those old fashioned “exposing prisoners of war to chemicals” stories you hear. I am worried for my children.
But it’s not limited to Boris. Sahid Kahn this morning has opened up a London competition for Euro final tickets on display of first vaccination evidence this week. Well, hold on though, the vaccine takes 2 weeks to counter the virus, and the first vaccine to limited effect, but he’s going to send those people to a crowded stadium likely via train / tube so they can get pissed as “lucky winners”… this Sunday? Jesus Christ..
Good article from Nick Triggle / BBC about learning to live with the virus
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942
He mentions a death rate below 1/1000 cases now, I'm sure he and his colleagues have better data and more time than me - I estimated 1/400-1/500 using the crude How many died last week (122) / How many new cases were there 3 weeks ago (50-60K) and TiRed also i think said he had some numbers (knowing the exalted circles he moves in, may be the same ones as Triggle!)
So if we're at 25K cases per day now, doubling every 9 days (Vallance yesterday) that'll be 50K in 9 days, 100K in 18 (23rd July) and 200K near enough by end of July. If there's that many people left to infect!
And 1/1000 of those (Triggle said less than but I don't like this kinds of qualifiers - how much less than?) is 50, 100 and 200 2-3 weeks after each of those.
Controversial but if that is the price of freedom, then the Gov as the elected party has the right to make that choice. And be accountable for the outcome. Against a normal death rate of 1700 per day seems 'tolerable'? (as long as it's not my Mum or Dad)
And as Whitty said, if there is a time to do it, summer is better than winter when seasonal pressures and flu will hit - NHS is calculated to be able to cope with that level of infections and hospitalisations acc to his models.
Still don't agree that we shouldn't be still taking what other steps we can to minimise transmission for a bit longer, flatten that hump a little bit more while more vaccines, etc. can be done, and reduce the chances for an escape variant to mutate, but it's not my choice to make.
Die is cast, bring it on.....and remember when you next put an X in a box.
What I found most depressing yesterday was the “we need to be patient while we look into it” answers to questions about vaccinating the under 18s. That sounds wise. What do we do to help protect the older teens and their families while it’s looked into? What do we do to stop the spread of the virus if we require a good proportion of teens vaccinated to reach “herd immunity”? As of two weeks time… very little at all. As for vulnerable people, the same groups are most at risk from high prevalence as they were before. If we really are at 100K+ new cases a day and still rising when we stop mask wearing in public places, for some people it won’t be “Freedom Day”, it’ll be the end of being able to visit public places for a good while. I just hope we have some good weather for those people to be able to do stuff outdoors.
Are the staff of the NHS immune from catching the virus? No… so who’s going to look after the patients when numbers increase? My wife works in a hospital, in a team of 27, 5 are isolating because family members currently have it & the numbers aren’t even as high as forecast. She didn’t have staffing issues in the first & second wave, this may get a bit messy…Ps, great thread & thanks for all the contributions from everyone. Apologies if this has already been covered.
Learn to live with it seems very much like it or lump it. The emphasis being very much on accepting the risk of drastically reduced mitigations rather than accepting day to day life now requires some changes to behaviour. Guess it'll be the usual case of worse than we are being told but better than we might fear. Although it does feel global Britain is going to give first to wave four variant a really good go.
Although there's still a lot I'm not comfortable with* I am also coming round to the idea that most of the restrictions need to end soon. There will always be a jump in infections when restrictions lift, and the NHS is best placed (less worse placed?) to deal with that before the normal winter health pressures ramp up. That window is shrinking.
The numbers that theotherjonv has provided for deaths at least are just about in my comfort zone, and I'm reassured that so many of my friends and family are planning on continuing to take some precautions in the short to medium term, which I'm seeing mirrored in wider social media posts.
*long covid, vaccinating teenagers, the government's track record on taking difficult and decisive action if the numbers start to go the wrong way, the whole "got Covid done" and vaccine success that will glass over the huge numbers of preventable excess deaths, how many of my new colleagues will turn out to be bellends when we finally meet in an office.....
No… so who’s going to look after the patients when numbers increase? My wife works in a hospital, in a team of 27, 5 are isolating because family members currently have it & the numbers aren’t even as high as forecast.
Isolation rules for double jabbed people to change today. I wonder what we will get…
Not sure why anyone would wait to have their freedom house party. If anything, it's better to have it this weekend, there are fewer cases around than there will be in a couple of weeks.
If us British can work together, shouting at our neighbours and friends over loud music, we can bring forward the peak, and the elderly and immunosuppressed will be able to get back in the shops and on the buses before the end of the summer.
And, through our holibobs, we can export the fresh and innovative variants we develop in the sports bars of the UK to the rest of the world.
Onwards towards victory!
Guardian live feed reporting Germany lifting/easing travel restrictions to the UK. Which all considering might be another case of bringing forward the next wave.
“we need to be patient while we look into it” answers to questions about vaccinating the under 18s. That sounds wise.
It’s a supply issue. Only Pfizer is approved in adolescents by FDA. US have not had much hesitation in protecting adolescents. And it’s given with the irreverent dosing schedule.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/adolescents.html
It’s a supply issue.
It is? Why didn’t they say that then? And I thought we had millions of both coming soon?
[ ah, you’ve edited your post, by both I meant Pfizer and Moderna ]
[ Moderna not yet approved, but likely would be by start of next term ]
@kryton - we don't yet know the effects of the long term on the nation's health, physical and mental, but there is evidence that declining economies create poverty and poverty creates health issues.
Thousands die directly because they can't heat their homes in the winter.
I share all your concerns, long covid and so on. I have said from the start (well, close to) that it is a fine balance with no good answers, just less worse ones.
Thankfully we have the best minds in the country deciding where that balance is, not a bunch of infighting clown****s.
Erm..... to the bunkers, stock up on toilet roll!
I suppose the only promising aspect is that Profs Whitty and Valance aren't standing there screaming "DON'T DO THIS", and I tend to respect their judgement.
Isolation rules for double jabbed people to change today. I wonder what we will get…
Are they? Interesting..
Am I right in saying - bluntly - that case numbers are as high as ever & hospitalisations/deaths are low?
Just getting a handle on things..
maybe PCW has been told next time the two louts won't just want a selfie......
But yes, I count myself as a scientist too, and I trust in general the data and what is said by these smart people. I know there are other opinions (too soon, delay again) but at some point we have to end and what PCW said yesterday about getting it done before the winter rush has just about convinced me.
They'll still be wearing masks personally though.....
Am I right in saying – bluntly – that case numbers are as high as ever & hospitalisations/deaths are low?
Yes. On deaths, from the BBC article I linked, in earlier waves 1/10 infections resulted in hospitalisation, and 1/60 resulted in a death (approx)
Now; it's 1/40-1/50 that results in a hospitalisation (and in general hospitalisations are shorter / less invasive) and 'less than' 1/1000 results in a death
However - if cases continue to increase at the rate they are then even if the multiplier is smaller, Very Big Number x multiplier = significant. But maybe as per other post, tolerable vs the alternative.
And all the cases that don't result in deaths are a potential Long Covid, or mutation that comes back to bite, etc.
Tough balance.
Could someone explain about the Ox/AZ jabs not being allowed as a travel pass, or have I mis read something?
Also somewhere way up there in this thread was the mention of Ox/AZ from India not being as good as from say Belgium. How would one know which of these they had been injected with as a vaccination (Indian produced or elsewhere)?
Thank you
If you have your card, it will have the batch number on it, up the thread the range of batches affected are listed
Could someone explain about the Ox/AZ jabs not being allowed as a travel pass, or have I mis read something?
Also somewhere way up there in this thread was the mention of Ox/AZ from India not being as good as from say Belgium. How would one know which of these they had been injected with as a vaccination (Indian produced or elsewhere)?
Thank you
As I understand they are biologically identical - no difference in efficacy. SII didn’t seek approval from EMA for it as they didn’t need to at the time. I’m sure approval will be given before too long. Individual EU countries can, however, make their own decisions.
PAH! The Delta variant is for losers - all the cool kids are worried about the lambda variant these days!