Forum menu
370,769 people are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID-19 in the UK, up by 12,076. Yesterday was 358,693 (+3%) and last Sunday was 274,356 (+35%).
30,790 daily cases in the UK, up by 669. Yesterday was 30,121 (+2%) and last Sunday was 21,758 (+42%).
Link (Today’s Data): https://covid.joinzoe.com/data/.
Link (Nation/Region Charts): https://covid.joinzoe.com/your-contribution?utm_source=App.
It really does look as though it is slowing right down on a national level.
wait a couple of days, weekend reporting is always lower
Am I right in thinking hospital admission is ~10 days after testing positive?
So the latest admissions data of 358 from 29th June should be compared to positive test results of 10,321 on 19th June, meaning a 3% hospital admission rate?
So if we hit 100,000+ daily positive cases, we can expect 3,000+ daily admissions ~10 days later, just under the peak we had back around March?
So if we hit 100,000+ daily positive cases, we can expect 3,000+ daily admissions ~10 days later, just under the peak we had back around March?
Unless the 3% now are mainly the not fully vaccinated group then yep, it’s going to be a bloodbath pretty quickly
The anti lockdown folks can’t quite get their head round that even if the percentage of people hospitalised is tiny, the absolute number who will require treatment if it’s just left to rip is still going to be substantial
My only hope is the vaccine and fact so many people already have had it means we’ll never get to 100k cases a day
It really does look as though it is slowing right down on a national level.
Which part of up 35% on last week do you think supports your comment? Seriously, look at the figures you've just quoted.
meaning a 3% hospital admission rate?
Yes. Assuming lag is the same as for past waves. People are on average spending less time in hospital as well though, which will help free up beds and staff to some degree.
My only hope is the vaccine and fact so many people already have had it means we’ll never get to 100k cases a day
That’s the gamble being taken. But it is a gamble.
Which part of up 35% on last week do you think supports your comment? Seriously, look at the figures you’ve just quoted.
Read it again, that +35% was last week's percentage rise, this weeks is only +3% so a big slowdown.
“this weeks” - are you not quoting a daily rise there, not a weekly one?
370,769 people are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID-19 in the UK, up by 12,076. Yesterday was 358,693 (+3%) and last Sunday was 274,356 (+35%).
According to my maths, 370,769 today is about 35% more than the 274,356 from last week?
That's a day to day comparison. 12k more people predicted to have it today than yesterday.
96k more today than this time last week.
You'd be right that 3% more on a day to day basis is 'slowing down', 1.03^7 is only 1.23, but as I say reporting is lower at weekends
My only hope is the vaccine and fact so many people already have had it means we’ll never get to 100k cases a day
Plenty of people have had Covid more than once. There is no immunity. Even the vaccine does not provide 100% protection.
30,790 daily cases in the UK, up by 669. Yesterday was 30,121 (+2%) and last Sunday was 21,758 (+42%).
the rapid rise seems to be slowing...?
But the rise is still positive...?
Wasn’t there something the other day about FFP3 mask use in a Cambridge (?) hospital cutting covid transmission to almost zero?
There’s a lot of stuff out there about the (assumed/presumed?) pathways for airborne transmission and aerosols, doesn’t take a leap of faith to see that a barrier to this will improve matters.
You would hope that Scottish schools being closed would start to hit R to some degree, but one day’s figures can’t be used to determine that yet. August should see the rise in cases slowing, but without mask wearing etc over the rest of the summer to help contain things more, next term will see the start of yet neither wrecked academic year for so many students. A political choice if that is what we go for. And the wrong one, in my opinion.
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you're still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
“Forever” - said no one.
We should make sure all businesses can be open as much as possible as soon as possible. Taking some measures to control transmission through the rest of the summer, such as mask wearing indoors, will help not hinder that. We can then see where we are a few weeks into the next school term and see what is required then. Don’t sacrifice (further) the education of our young people for the political win of claiming the “crisis is over”, possibly prematurely.
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
Calm down dear. We're simply clarifying your interpretation of the data you provided.
Well it's going to rip come the 19th, that's a given. The great British public on mass is pretty stupid. Point in case being one of my wife's colleagues, primary age child sent home from school, a school with a high case rate, vomiting amongst other things, quite a common symptom in younger kids. Didn't bother to test him, she has easy access to LFTs as she also works in another school. Palms the kid off onto her very overweight and unhealthy parents and carries on too going to work. She now has symptoms and has potentially infected all those she works with who have to isolate pending a PCR test. It's this sort of bellendery that has allowed this to continue to spread, and that's with restrictions and guidelines in place. Another example of stupidity, a residential school I know had a case I year 8 and promptly sent all the kids home when they should have remained in their bubbles at school. If they hadn't allowed them to go home the previous week they would probably have kept covid out.
Hospitalisations and deaths reported today are both up by more than 20% compared to Sunday last week,( but as has been stated numbers over weekends are less consistent) and to be fair, the number of deaths are small numbers compared to a few months ago so even a few extra makes a big difference,
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
No mask = no admission in any of the shops in my wee Galloway town, signs in every window and the shopkeepers association are continuing with the mask policy, I’m perfectly happy for you to carry on with your life but please do it away from those of us who give an actual f…
No mask = no admission in any of the shops in my wee Galloway town
Be genuinely interesting to see how long that lasts if the big chains and supermarkets drop the requirement and how the less enlightened residents of your town react when challenged if it's no longer a government requirement. Not very would be my guess.
letting the virus rip against a vaccined population is just suicidal....
No mask = no admission in any of the shops in my wee Galloway town,
This will be the interesting thing
- shops are private premises, in the same way as it is permissable for a restaurant to have a dress code, a pub to have no workwear policies, a shop to have a tops must be worn....it's entirely legal for a premises to say that there is no admission without a mask. Although as per the comment earlier, arseholes are already making harder to enforce.
If the gov drops mask wearing completely, then it'll be interesting to see which shops maintain the social responsibility and which don't. I guess the sensible (and yes, I think the non-wearers are misinformed or deliberately being difficult) have the option to vote with their feet and I'll be trying to put my pounds in places aligned with my values. While getting on with my life as best i can.
Masks are pretty ineffective though
Got a link to any scientific paper that demonstrates that claim?
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
This is where this all goes wrong, and why people's backs are up. We're criticised for not debating the counter view. A post is put up that misinterprets the data, folks post back explaining where the error is and instead of saying 'ah yes, I'm wrong' (and who knows, even thanks for increasing my understanding) but instead it's snippy insults.
This debating thing goes both ways. If you want people to listen to your arguments you have to listen in return.
Let me get this right, at the start of all this (about 18 months ago) the received wisdom (scientific) was that a pandemic likely to rage for 2 years.
So now with rising infection rates it’s all over? Because Sajid ****ing Javid says so?
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
Exactly what is it your imagining people are largely doing? Hiding behind the sofa rationing out tins of beans as long as possible and shitting in a bucket?
Not being one for nightclubs and gigs. My life currently is as it was prior to the pandemic. The only day to day difference is my hands are cleaner and I wear a mask in confined public spaces in an attempt to protect those around me. Christ knows how some are so absurdly sensitive to mask wearing being some sort of assault human rights, I look forward to anti scarf marches next winter.
Be genuinely interesting to see how long that lasts if the big chains and supermarkets drop the requirement and how the less enlightened residents of your town react when challenged if it’s no longer a government requirement. Not very would be my guess.
Like I said, “wee Galloway town - kirkcudbright”, only has a very small Tesco and co-op where mask wearing/hand gel and limited numbers are allowed in at any one time continues. Funnily enough all the locals fully support measures, being a small town with limited shops it’s very easy to judge the mood amongst locals. The only folk kicking off so far this year have been holiday folk coming into the area, some of them have been utter dicks as experienced by mates who own shops in town.
So now with rising infection rates it’s all over? Because Sajid **** Javid says so?
That and because people have ‘had enough’.
I said from the start that this gov would totally f up the measures needed and then make it drag on. Yes I know that doesn’t make me a genius. So now we have the ‘lockdowns don’t work’ narrative (you can’t make it up) joining hands with the ‘**** this for a game of soldiers’ narrative.
All horribly predicted/predictable. If it lets rip again then it will either send everyone and their kids and dogs to get jabbed and masked up or else it will just descend into some kind of anarchic and misguided ‘culture war’
The issue will be whether small shopkeepers can afford to turn down business from people who won't respect the owners request to wear masks.
Is it just civil trespass if you don't leave a shop when requested? Can you use reasonable force to remove a trespasser? Will the Police have the time and resources to back up shopkeepers if things get nasty - which they will, given the abuse shop staff are already getting.
The issue will be whether small shopkeepers can afford to turn down business from people who won’t respect the owners request to wear masks.
Yep. Conversely will the silent sensible majority vote with their pound if they don't.
Yep. Conversely will the silent sensible majority vote with their pound if they don’t.
I will wear I can
I wonder how the different countrys will go (I’m sure they’ve been doing the usual consensus approach and it’s another ‘one nation’ decision... )
It's clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there's never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
Some of you under your little rocks would be surprised how much of the population is bored and sick of this now (and long ago) but are socially forced into agreeing with the pro restriction brigade.
Have fun hiding behind the sofa guys.
It’s clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there’s never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
No it's not. There's several prepared to debate it but you have to listen back and accept where your argument is, simply, wrong. Do you understand why your maths is flawed, or are you ignoring that because the 35% increase in a week doesn't fit your narrative of almost over.
How big a number would it have to be before you accept it's far from over?
It’s clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there’s never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
Some of you under your little rocks would be surprised how much of the population is bored and sick of this now (and long ago) but are socially forced into agreeing with the pro restriction brigade.
So, you present figures as evidence that the virus is all over. When the error in your working is pointed out, it transpires that the reason it’s all over is that you are a bit bored. This is why people like you get criticised on threads like these.
Have fun hiding behind the sofa guys.
Yawn…
Exactly what is it your imagining people are largely doing
indeed. I’m actually intrigued As to what massive sacrafices airvent is currently giving up. Pubs open, shops open, travel abroad restricted but you can still go on holiday to foreign countries, uk wide travel permitted, socialising with friends indoors and out allowed. There is genuinely nothing I have wanted to do in last 3 months that I’m not allowed to right now due to the restrictions.
But please do tell us what you at desperate to get up to whilst we are all hiding behind our sofas?
Blimey. Some people are losing it over wearing a mask here and there eh? Probably the type who calls others a 'snowflake' at the earliest opportunity.
If so sure of your own clear opinion, then there should be no issue in debating it rather than dropping to childish insult levels no?
It’s clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there’s never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
At times in the last 16 months it might have been.
But all I and others did was point out that you seemed to have misinterpreted the data you were saying supported your position, and you've come back just being rude again.
You doth protest too much
you might all feel better about wetting the bed
Dick.
The roadmap was published on 22nd February and is being followed, there isn’t a plan to continue restrictions once the 4 tests were met (and have been)
Have all four tests been met? Genuine question, I've not seen any reports or statements from the government or scientists confirming this, and I thought this was why it had been out back to July.
It's possible I've missed all this in the general noise.
Dick
Not helping the debate really?
So not really missing out on anything then due to the current restrictions, and Just whining for the sake of it..
You just keep responding with ‘you’re all bed wetter’ comments though.. it’s pretty hurtful stuff..🤔🤔😂
Not helping the debate really?
You think he was debating with you with his bed wetting comment?
Happy to debate anything, anytime, with anyone.
Some more gloom for you airvent. 😉 A double Pfizer vaccinated mid-20s relative who has been working in a vaccination center is currently ill with Covid, he was due to fly to Greece for work tomorrow . One very unhappy sick bunny.
Here in ***** we're having a ball before the fourth wave swamps us.
Airvent. You're quite dim aren't you?
Data, not dates
24K new cases today - a weekend, when reporting is low. 174K new cases in the last 7 days (28/6 to 4/7) - that's a 66.9% increase over the week before (21/7 to 27/7)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I predict there will be 70-100K new cases per day by the end of the month. Half a million plus new cases per week.
There were 122 deaths this week - allowing for a 3 week case to death evolution, and looking back at cases from 3 weeks ago there were around 8000 cases being reported per day. If 8K per day leads to 122 deaths per week in 3 weeks time, the 24K cases per day currently will result in around 370 deaths per week in 3 weeks time, and the 70K cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
And that's without long covid, etc.
Yes, it's lower than it was before vax started having an effect (about 0.25% cases result in deaths by my calc) but how big a number do you need it to be to accept this is not over.
and BTW I still support removing restrictions, even with that ^
...but keeping those that have a demonstrable beneficial impact, and cause very minimal disruption. Such as mask wearing and social distancing.
how big a number do you need it to be to accept this is not over.
I’m going to speculate for a lot of people no number will convince them. What will maybe convince them is when they or someone close to them gets a really bad dose. The more we vaccinate the lower that chance becomes but it’s still a very real possibility
My mate is royally fxxxed with it at the moment. Mid 40s, runs 20 miles a week. Currently completely broken. Earlier in week apparently it was fine, no worse than a bad cold, but sure enough 3 days later he’s going downhill. In his words ‘I hate to think how bad this would have been if I’d not been vaccinated’….
Didn't we have a new account recently that was also an bed wetter fetishist? Not the porno poster, one after that!
and BTW I still support removing restrictions, even with that ^
…but keeping those that have a demonstrable beneficial impact, and cause very minimal disruption. Such as mask wearing and social distancing.
My position as well, I feel I should add. All I want is for the right restrictions to be lifted at the right time.
Tpbiker - hope your mate starts to shake it off. Everyone I know who has had it has talked of at least 1 month to get over it, the majority have needed at least 3 months, a couple are 6 months in and still not right.
A couple of people I know have died, but this was pre-vaccination days.
…cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
Remember when Witty stated that an August lockdown was quite likely…. Well, that.
....but we can't go backwards.....
We won’t have an August “lockdown”. We might have an entirely avoidable reintroducing of restrictions/measures once the schools and colleges reopen next term.
The roadmap was published on 22nd February and is being followed, there isn’t a plan to continue restrictions once the 4 tests were met (and have been) so there’s really no debate to be had about extending any further past July 19th.
Uh, huh. You realise that some of us here are numerate, right? And what about the delta/Indian variant with 40% increased transmutability over alpha/Kent that showed up in April?
You do know what we had to do to stop/control the previous waves don’t you? What kind of fantasist thinks that with only 50% double vacced that the “third wave“ will be any different as this government plays outs it’s own peculiar version of Groundhog Day?
But hey, the British Public are “fed up” so that’s that! The same attitude/approach that worked wonders with the EU. I’m sure COVID must be shaking in its boots…
On a scale of 1 to "totally ****ed", I think I can see where this is going.
the 70K cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
Although if they're anti-vaxxers I don't really care.
Go Tayside!!!!
We won’t have an August “lockdown”.
Exactly, no chance. Just like we didn’t have a November one when it was needed.
Javid said: “We need to be clear that cases are going to rise significantly. I know many people will be cautious about the easing of restrictions – that’s completely understandable. But no date we choose will ever come without risk, so we have to take a broad and balanced view.
“We are going to have to learn to accept the existence of Covid and find ways to cope with it – just as we already do with flu.”
I’m sure SARS-CoV-2 will only go for the double vaccinated though, seen as how we’re British an all.
Wait till the rest of Europe acquires delta - we led the way with alpha (home grown).
I don't think I've been called a disaster fetishist before. Nor do I hide behind my sofa - catching up on TdF on mine as I type. But the data are unequivocal - cases are growing geometrically, predominantly in the young - the proportion in <20 and 20-29 is staggering, and admissions are lower than would be expected for the previous force of infection - vaccines work. So now we know; restriction of contacts reduces spread, vaccinations reduce morbidity. How do you balance the two control levers (we only previously had one)?
Personally, if asked, I also think we should relax restrictions (I haven't been asked btw but my views are part of the consensus statement). But be under no illusions, a lot of admissions of children and adolescents will soon bring vaccination of adolescents (Pfizer and Moderna already have the label). Don't rule out further measures in the future. Don't rule out a proper vaccine escape mutant (but coronaviruses are not influenza).
And I'll continue to wear a mask, especially if I go back to public transport.
Keep hiding behind your masks by all means, but don’t be surprised if you get funny looks or people avoid you as they assume you must be sick. Alternatively just give yourselves all a group hug and you might all feel better about wetting the bed.
Logical fallacy of the day: FALSE DILEMMA/BIFURCATION FALLACY
Bedwetter VS ratlicker
I’m sure you’ve already been giving funny looks to those wearing masks for some time now. It’s a well-known intimidation technique to make such bedwetters feel intimidated. It also sends a strong message to those who foolishly believed that wearing a mask helps protect others. Have you tried calling them out on it? ‘Oi, BEDWETTER, why you got that FACENAPPY ON? Scared of your own SHADOW? 😂😂🤣 Yoo do know there’s a CULTURE WAR ON, and your filthy surrender flag is ON YOUR MUSH???’
We can’t be far off some of that by now.
In other news, airvent is Biff Tannen and I claim my
the “third wave“ will be any different
It will be, the link between cases and deaths is now a totally different multiplier. Partly vax, partly that the unvaxxed are mainly the younger age groups where death is far less likely (although other issues, etc.)
But there will be deaths, and if Cases is a Very Big Number as I fear we are already heading towards, VBN x a smaller multiplier can still be a significant number.....possibly towards 1000/week in mid-late August according to my calcs.
the link between cases and deaths is now a totally different multiplier.
Yup, and the previously successful transmission mitigation measures (social distancing and masks) are about to get tossed…
It’s an airborne virus and it’s transmission vectors haven’t altered…
ETA: the point was, what mitigation measure will we need to adopt if we’re at your 100k infections/1k (youngster?) death scenario?
metalheart
Full MemberYou do know what we had to do to stop/control the previous waves don’t you? What kind of fantasist thinks that with only 50% double vacced that the “third wave“ will be any different as this government plays outs it’s own peculiar version of Groundhog Day?
Well the double vaccinated are the more vulnerable half, and it's demonstrably different this time round. We're probably a week or 2 ahead up here in Scotland on this third wave. I think the next 2/3 weeks will be very interesting to see where numbers go. regards hospitalisatiosn/deaths. They are rising, but considerably slower giving we've surpassed peak levels up here from previous waves already.
I think the biggest don't know at the moment is really what level this unmitigated 3 wave will level off at...
i.e. will it just keep rising to multiples of previous peaks, or will it level off sooner rather than later.
I think we may see some restrictions re=introduced myself at some point if the worst happens, whether people follow them is another story, and also lets face it, the tories are done paying for it too (which isn't an insignificant factor in decisions, or whether people can follow any "suggested" restrictions, which is more what we'll get going forward I think. ie gov will blame the people.).
If it goes well here, numbers will be allowed to rise in europe, we're a month or so ahead of them on vaccinations, so that map up there isn't really like for like comparison.
Ah, The UK as Petri dish, good stuff!
metalheart
Full Member
Ah, The UK as Petri dish, good stuff!
pretty much aye, we're the test case. It's what goes with being one of the first vaccinated.
As a separate question I've been wondering on the variants.
We keep hearing every new variant is X more transmissible. Which is fair enough. But that can't be the only change that these variants are causing? Are the variants not having any effect on how sick they make people or how likely they are to cause deaths for example?
The whole mutation chat seems to be focused on transmissibility, surely there's a bigger picture there?
the point was, what mitigation measure will we need to adopt if we’re at your 100k infections/1k (youngster?) death scenario?
well the argument would be whether that is tolerable to get our lives back, and the economy restarted. Do we need to mitigate, or just accept it?
On average 1700 people die every day, that's 12K a week. Can we tolerate 1000 a week due to covid for the benefits?
Not a decision I would like to make, but I don't think masks and SD are getting particularly in the way of getting our lives back, we can do both.
I also wonder whether the virus will run out of truly susceptible people and deaths will drop when there's no-one left to kill. Although mutate and escape, is clearly a risk.
Text from school, Jnr01 needs to isolate with the rest of year 7. :/
well the argument would be whether that is tolerable to get our lives back, and the economy restarted. Do we need to mitigate, or just accept it?
On average 1700 people die every day, that’s 12K a week. Can we tolerate 1000 a week due to covid for the benefits?
Currently it would seem as long as it’s not one of your own just about anything is tolerable… I mean, masks and social distancing are too much for some (personally I’m happy to continue with both as well, seems a small sacrifice to make all things considered)
And, no, not a decision I’d like to make either.
I'd just like to point out that removing remaining restrictions on 19th July is a bit of a dead cat. The cases rates are going nuts now, if we want to bring them back down we need to return to 16th of May or more likely the 11th of April, really can't see that happening.
There's only one way out of this and that's vaccinating the over 12s, preferably before September.
We nominally have masks and social distancing now, it's not working.
/blockquote>
Very interesting, sounds like loony ramblings tbh, who actually gives a shit about the gates foundation being behind the vaccination process or is it another Rockefeller allegation?.
Becoming more transmittable is the likely outcome of successful mutations. It's a random event. The only function of the virus is to replicate, everything else is incidental. Any mutation/variant that replicates faster will be dominant.
There may be other changes. One is that the spoke proteins change making vaccines less effective. The fear would be that it changes into something more harmful at the same time.
The more it spreads the more it mutates and the less predictability there is. So it could be one a form that isn't affected by the vaccine which I guess would be a major concern.
I’ve never read such a load of bedwetting ****. How some of you will cope when the mask mandate and social distancing ends 😂
49 and never stuck a muzzle on my face in the whole time. Can’t wait to look back on this scam in years to come. A great many folk are going to feel rather duped.
You can always infer someone's level of education when they use the word "muzzle".
You can lead a horse to water …
If the ONS stats don’t provide the evidence you need.
I just find it hilarious now and can’t wait for two weeks time.
49 and never stuck a muzzle on my face in the whole time
Oooh, aren't you so tough <swoons>
Actually no, that doesn't make you look tough, it makes you look rather stupid and very selfish.
Johnson doing his piece to camera tomorrow evening.
Final decision to be made on Monday 12th though.
yep, previously healthy people drowning in their own lung fluid has me doubled over in mirth.
What are the ONS stats proving?
What are the ONS stats proving?
The likelihood of dying 🙄
So you're not denying that CV19 is a real thing and has caused millions of deaths?
Are you saying that the back of the envelope prediction of 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time is what, not going to happen? Or tolerable?
And can you explain why you don't wear a face covering, when it has been shown by 'compelling data' to reduce transmission. Do you not feel any responsibility for the health of others, or is there another reason?
Do you understand why many see that as selfish, and irresponsible?