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The government need to be readying parents for that… I’m a bit worried that preparing the ground for that hasn’t begun yet
Looks to be underway around my neck of the woods. A chap at work has had consent forms from school to jab his 14-year-old son.
Good news from France (and closer to home). Thanks. Nothing from the JCVI yet though, is there?
According to the Brits in this thread last year, that’s not a lockdown...
Under the new restrictions...
So no, it's not a lockdown.
Interesting take on the trials and tribulations of the AZ vaccine. From what look like rookie errors to state sponsored disinformation campaigns and general squabbling.
I work for a competitor so there’s my disclaimer in early. But long-term, I do not think the AZ vaccine will be the solution. The absence of a track record in production from the company coupled with concerns over variant coverage, and a tiny safety signal, mean that eventually I think mRNA and protein based vaccines will be the solution. I could be wrong, and be in no doubt it has saved many many lives, but I think established vaccine players will, long-term, provide the continuous supply we need. It’ll be the same as influenza annual supply, probably coformulated as one injection.
Interestingly, Sanofi have just started testing the first ever mRNA influenza vaccine. The technology has come of age, and that’s great news.
#inbeforeModerna
Hancock's gone.
Biontech have just got first patient in on an anti cancer mrna vaccine. The pandemic does seem to have given it the kick that was needed to get wider use of a fantastic technology
Wow. That’s very exciting Graham.
Sorry i was slightly wrong. The biontech one is for skin cancer and is going into phase 2.
Still very significant though
The AZ vaccine will probably be gone in a year or so but will still have played an important part in getting through this. A year ago we didn't know which vaccines to bet on so bet on a large number. We're lucky that so many bets paid off. In an alternate future, it could have been the mRNA vaccines that had a larger number of adverse effects or worse efficacy.
I feel sorry for AZ - they agreed from the outset to provide the vaccine "not for profit" during the pandemic, other companies are making large amounts of money from their vaccines.
Overall though we're just incredibly lucky to live in a time when we can develop vaccines for novel viruses so quickly.
Biontech have just got first patient in on an anti cancer mrna vaccine
Just as an aside, there have been tests of vaccines against cancer in the past. Of course the HPV is approved, but there have been non viral ones too (MAGE A3). The mRNA technology was first thought useful for cancer NOT infectious diseases. So hopefully this will prove as impressive a development as it has for sars-cov-2.
I don’t normally do politics, but I think Hancock’s position was untenable. After what he said regarding Neil Ferguson, it was only a matter of time.
My friend's 18 year old has the golden opportunity of getting a free vaccination this weekend. His nearest 'walk in' centre is a 5 minute stroll from his house. Nothing she says is making this teenager go.
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
My friend’s 18 year old has the golden opportunity of getting a free vaccination this weekend. His nearest ‘walk in’ centre is a 5 minute stroll from his house. Nothing she says is making this teenager go.
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
The delta variant is significantly more infectious and cases are rising exponentially. In the past we’d be locking down now, but that isn’t going to happen, so it’s quite likely anyone not taking the vaccine will get their inoculation the old fashioned way via infection.
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
Eldest turns 18 a week today, he's booking a jab the minute he can, and he'll be the last in his cohort of college/Scouts/music mates to get it done.
It's a complete myth that youngsters don't want to do their bit - the vaccination is potentially their passport to having the summer that they want and deserve.
Interesting to see Marr caught it at G7, despite being double vaccinated.
The government had said the G7 wasn't a superspreader event, despite leaving a cluster of cases in its wake
And agree Graham: mRNA tech is really interesting
Finally received my blue letter appointment for July 7th 👍
It ain’t perfect but it’s better than a kick in the shins
How in earth can we get through to these teenagers that this is important?
Play some Glastonbury. Tell them if they want to go next year, they’ll need a vaccination. Vaccine passports will be a thing. Quarantine relaxation is the first step.
From a completely self interested outlook… if you’re turning 19 soon, you’ll need the vaccination to get on with lots of things in the next 18 months. From a more social perspective, cutting transmission in places where young people gather helps protect not only other young people with pre-existing conditions, but also the older friends, families, educators, doctors, nurses, shop staff, bar staff, bus drivers etc that come into contact with young people.
Our eldest is 19 and got her first jab as soon as she possibly could.
The government had said the G7 wasn’t a superspreader event, despite leaving a cluster of cases in its wake
Case rates have gone through the roof in Cornwall, fortunately they can blame it on half term rather than G7. At least we've given all the delegations a lovely Delta present to take back to their home nations.
I suspect that any increase in case rates across Cornwall is more likely to be from half term than the G7.
The delta variant is significantly more infectious and cases are rising exponentially. In the past we’d be locking down now, but that isn’t going to happen,
Indeed it is spreading fast. In my little world (hospitality in Bristol) dozens of businesses have staff isolating or have tested positive. Some have had to close as a result (after the year they've just had, this is enough to make some go bust).
One chef friend, in his 30s, caught it from his housemate who worked in a pub where they had an outbreak. They both got it bad, this variant is (anecdotally) quite a lot worse than last year. Young people I know are scared of catching it. 3 weeks later and he's still suffering.
If my business has to close due to a positive case, that will cost us to the tune of £30k in lost revenue, plus then the cost of supporting staff if they have long term sickness.
The message coming from the media is that deaths are low, so we're fine. The reality is each of the ~100k cases we've had in the past week has consequences on people's health and businesses.
Case rate in Scotland is now above January's record and rising fast.
R number in Scotland has just been reduced.
Am I missing something?
Dup
Am I missing something?
That it’s not rising as fast as it was in the past (pre-vaccine rollout)… but of course, unchecked, it’ll keep rising for quite some time yet. Once levels are high, R doesn’t need to be high for things to get out of control. R in its own means nothing. R in combination with prevalence is what’s key.
It’s a complete myth that youngsters don’t want to do their bit – the vaccination is potentially their passport to having the summer that they want and deserve.
Basically this. The younger generation know exactly how important is it we don't need to "get through to these teenagers." They are far more socially aware that any generation before them. We also need to live with the fact some people wont get the jab and everyone need to respect that choice.
Both my son and step daughter are 18 and got there’s last week.
Didn’t require a discussion, just went off and got it done.
It's not an age thing, my 2 girls couldn't wait to get it.
One travelled for an hour and queued for two so she could get one early, most if not all in the queue were of a simular age. The other went in her lunch break from work.
Nothing she says is making this teenager go.
Rename the router 'Get your jab, get wifi' and change the password.
My two 18-year-olds are keen to get theirs, my lad has already had his second (they're allowing them after 21 days here).
We have a large health centre down the road from us and it's been a marvel to behold.whenever I walk past it.
Week on week the age of the people constantly turning up and leaving has reduced and now the vast majority I see going in and out are in their twenties/teens.
To most teenagers the message is getting through. Sure, it might be for personal gain, allowing them more "freedoms" over the year agreed but I'm not bothered by their motives in the least. It's all good.
The message coming from the media is that deaths are low, so we’re fine. The reality is each of the ~100k cases we’ve had in the past week has consequences on people’s health and businesses.
Again, they are making the mistake of looking at absolute numbers rather than the growth.
Deaths grew 72% to 124 in the last 7 days compared to the previous week, if it continues with that growth then....
In 4 weeks 1085 deaths/week
In 6 weeks 3211 deaths/week
In 8 weeks 9498 deaths/week
In 10 weeks 28,100 deaths/week
Obviously the vaccines will continue to drive R down as will increasing infections, further unlocking will increase R
Deaths grew 72% to 124 in the last 7 days compared to the previous week, if it continues with that growth then….
In 4 weeks 1085 deaths/week
In 6 weeks 3211 deaths/week
In 8 weeks 9498 deaths/week
In 10 weeks 28,100 deaths/week
That's not how it works. It took 4 months in the winter wave to hit 1400 deaths 7 day average at its highest point.
I know Ivermectin has been mentioned in the thread but something odd is going on with the general receptivity to it being a potential treatment
https://trialsitenews.com/uk-based-meta-analysis-peer-reviewed-published-suggests-ivermectin-a-key-public-health-weapon-in-the-war-against-covid-19/
Oxford Uni announced a few days ago that it's been added to their PRINCIPLE trials..
Yeah that is referenced. I hadn't heard much about it before but apparently it has been in use with good effect in quite a few countries already
That’s not how it works. It took 4 months in the winter wave to hit 1400 deaths 7 day average at its highest point.
Think it was around 9-10K deaths a week at the peak. Also less infectious variant and more restrictions(but no vaccine). For the record I don’t think the numbers I calculated will happen as people will modify behaviour when/if it gets grim also the vaccination program will continue to reduce R however the numbers are correct IF growth continues at the current rate of increase that has been seen this week.
g'day
Update from the Sydney/New South Wales lockdown
18 new cases yesterday, but (based upon the initial wave) the numbers are always down on a Monday, we are expecting an increase over the course of next week. Interesting that two cases are in ICU - that doesn't bode well as a %.
Interestingly, we are reporting almost 100% transmission rate within households. The Birthday party super-spreader event of 30 people has resulted in 24 positive cases (so far). They have also mentioned that they are noticing vaccinated individuals are seeming to be less likely to have caught it - but that's seems anecdotal at the moment - no numbers given.
From a personal perspective - Lockdown isn't really impacting us too much: we have an (almost) 5 year old and a 2.5 year old, so we are not going out to restaurants and bars much anyway! Childcare centres look to be staying open, which is great as it means that my wife and I can both still work, although they are indicating that stricter measures re: childcare centres and schools are on the way - so we will see what happens.
The kids love going to the beach at the weekend, so we will have to see what the guidance is on that - the beaches are open, but it feels wrong to be driving the 20 minutes or so to get there - even if it's virtually deserted when you arrive.
Interesting way of presenting the stat's isn't it?
130 infections is the way the ABC summarise the situation.
We're all on alert north of Brisbane as there's a community case of the delta variant.
Masks are mandatory again, some of the other restrictions have been reinstated, and we expect to know by Thursday whether we'll be on a two-week lockdown.
Typically it's happened just as the school holidays start... suspect our interstate visitors won't be flying in this coming weekend.
The Birthday party super-spreader event of 30 people has resulted in 24 positive cases (so far). They have also mentioned that they are noticing vaccinated individuals are seeming to be less likely to have caught it – but that’s seems anecdotal at the moment – no numbers given.
Update on this - the 6 people at the party who were vaccinated (one with only a single dose), are indeed the ones who haven't tested positive. Hopefully that's sufficiently dumbed-down for people to understand the benefits of vaccination.
Interesting way of presenting the stat’s isn’t it?
130 infections is the way the ABC summarize the situation.
Yeah - it's just their daily dashboard. 130 infections from this latest outbreak is what I'd heard too, although that's going to climb pretty steeply given the rate of household infection.
In the meantime, daycare has called - Batfink Jnr has got suspected hand/foot/mouth, can I come and collect her. ****s sake. Off to the doctors we go.
Driving 20 minutes to an empty beach sounds fine to me if the rules allow it - the only additional risk is if you crash on the way!
Interestingly, we are reporting almost 100% transmission rate within households.
Someone mentioned this yesterday, spread now almost guaranteed in a household, which wasn't the case with the original virus. You could shut yourself away in a ventilated room, be careful, and have a chance of not spreading it.
Yeah that is referenced. I hadn’t heard much about it before but apparently it has been in use with good effect in quite a few countries already
Is it that the countries using it had little alternative, as they had health service issues, oxygen running out, etc?
Pretty scary reading on the guardian analysis article ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines): encounters of 5-10s enough to transmit.
I'm not sure I yet understand the current decision making process.
Infection rate is rising faster than ever.
We are relaxing restrictions.
There is still a policy of isolation in the event of suspected infection.
Regardless of the hospitalisation and death rates not rising as previously, surely there's a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating? That's at both a national and at a company level. We're already seeing many businesses having to close for 10 day periods. That number will just keep rising. Many of the businesses won't survive much longer and many individuals simply can't afford to lose the income.
I really don't know what the answer is but I don't see the current position as sustainable. Is this why July 19th is being positioned as "freedom day"? Regardless of the numbers it is now time to let it rip and just keep an eye on hospitalisation/death rates and pray for no more deadly variant to show up?
surely there’s a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating? That’s at both a national and at a company level. We’re already seeing many businesses having to close for 10 day periods. That number will just keep rising. Many of the businesses won’t survive much longer and many individuals simply can’t afford to lose the income.
But the counter is that continuing to extend lockdowns with the reduced economy caused by that is causing the same things to happen - particularly as support is not being extended in the same way as lockdowns.
It's not an easy decision / balance to find. Thankfully, we don't have a bunch of shit-flinging gibbons making those decisions for us......
It’s not an easy decision / balance to find.
I'm not pretending I know (or even that there is) a better answer. Just pondering that I think I'm now in favour of removing the isolation requirement so July 19th suddenly seems very reasonable (indeed, why delay?)
Possibly:
Regardless of the numbers it is now time to let it rip and just keep an eye on hospitalisation/death rates
but i have some nagging doubts about:
and pray for no more deadly variant to show up?
I'll be honest, I'm struggling a bit to understand that too. The PM said, and Gove confirmed that the 19th was an Terminus and it could be sooner. Unless something really unprecedented happened (and are these new transmission figures REALLY unprecedented / unforeseeable?)
The benefit is that more people will be vaccinated by then, but even so they will only just be, many will not be fully vaxxed or had the chance for the immunity to build up (approx 3 weeks, if I recall) so I can't quite balance what extra benefit we're getting if the decision is to all intents and purposes irreversible.
If it was a case of 'because new info and we really don't know' - which ultracautious me can somewhat justify - then I might be more understanding of why we need another 2 weeks of data. But it's already been described as a Terminus, and to kick it out again would truly be a brave move against the increasing tide of opinion, and the impact on the economy.
The balance is definitely shifting.
Regardless of the hospitalisation and death rates not rising as previously, surely there’s a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating?
And educational impact. At the moment we're "keeping schools open", but failing the children in them, as so many are kept off school, or their teachers are missing (that's the local picture here anyway). Having measures in place to reduce transmission can help schools when it comes to operating properly for as many pupils as possible, rather than working in such a piecemeal fashion. "Open" and "freedom" isn't just about an absence of rules and restrictions.
or their teachers are missing
I think that's what I'm getting at. Is having teachers isolate the correct policy now? Surely they should just carry on working as normal (same for other workers).
And educational impact. At the moment we’re “keeping schools open”, but failing the children in them
Thankfully scientists are calling for the whole bubble aspect to be revisited for the new term after holiday.
It can't go on simply closing down whole year groups for example, it's such a huge impact to lots of kids who probably haven't caught it from their classmate.
Regardless of the numbers it is now time to let it rip and just keep an eye on hospitalisation/death rates and pray for no more deadly variant to show up?
This appears to be the plan. When the delay to 'Freedom Day' was announced, it was obvious that by the new date things would be much worse - so what was the point? Was it supposed to make it look like they cared?
Don't think so. Just get as many more vaccinated as you can. I got my second jab on Saturday at one of the the vaccination centres that were doing walk-ins. Just over a week 'early'. I'd been unable to rebook my second one without cancelling it first which I was reluctant to do. Similar for my gf and she took her 18 year old down for his first too.
Just get as many more vaccinated as you can.
Yup. The delay is for additional vaccinations. That's going well, so no matter what the "data", most remaining (legal) measures will be dropped in July.
Shame the vaccination rate is also slowing down
Shame the vaccination rate is also slowing down
Well there's two aspects
- Willingness to get jabbed
- Supply
From that graph it doesn't tell you why it's currently dipping. I suspect its more of the latter as half of the under 30s have had their 1st jab so that doesn't appear to be a problem at the moment unlike say Israel where rates have practically come to a standstill.
More likely to be supply as we're restricted to Moderna and Pfizer at the moment for the age range we're jabbing.
Be more concerned if its the former.
I think this is going to be a shittier winter than a lot of people though. They'll be covid and other respiratory stuff doing the rounds, the hospitals will be straining again, and I'd be surprised if there aren't circuit breakers and lockdowns.
There's already talk of the 19th July going backward yet again despite it being "terminus".
There’s already talk of the 19th July going backward yet again despite it being “terminus”.
Link?
Politically, the 19th is a fixed point now. They've left no further wiggle room. The delay was to give us a month to get some more under-30s vaccinated, rather than get case numbers down. You can only do that by locking down hard, and what we have now could not be described as a lockdown in any way, shape or form, regardless of what the loonies claim.
Javid nailing his balls to the mast on the 19th July date when delta variant is still causing headaches
With a huuuuge NHS backlog even a small rise in hospitalisation will have a big effect
when delta variant is still causing headaches
The only current headache is the isolation requirement.
Link?
Sky news web - front - page.
The current 'restrictions' do not particularly inhibit spread of this variant - it's just too transmissible. The only way to do this is to impose greater restrictions, and even rolling back to the previous level of 'lockdown' would not be strict enough. I don't think there's any stomach for that politically, even people like me who have backed a clear role for strict lockdowns can't see how it can be sustained indefinitely.
I would like to see mask wearing in shops/schools/public transport continue, however.
Sky news web – front – page.
That also says July 19th is still the date.
I would like to see mask wearing in shops/schools/public transport continue, however.
This. Hopefully just for the summer, and then see where we are after the first few weeks of next term. Get everything left to open... fully open. Keep simple measures to try and reduced the speed of transmission.
Interesting one of the household transmission.
My wife probably caught it 9 days ago, felt ropey last Tuesday, lat flow tested on Wednesday morning. We split the house, so she has upstairs and I have downstairs whikst we isolate, with my 2 and 4 year old having free reign. So far I’m negative (2 x pcr tests, lat flow tests daily) but my eldest has tested since tested positive. Have had all the windows open ( this is cornwall so there is always a breeze), and with the likelihood that this is the delta variant, shows how important fresh air can be.
I’m bring up wets to the wife and showering upstairs, but always wearing a mask ( one of those biking/pollution ones I had from years ago).
I’m expecting to come down with it at some point, mainly because I’m having to look after the children, but ventilation/one vaccine dose obviously helps
The other factor is that there may be a 'natural' plateau in case numbers in the towns first hit by delta - Bolton etc. That suggests that delta growth is dependent on specific local reservoirs of susceptible people in different age groups. One of those is schoolchildren, and it will be interesting to see what happens when the school term ends and there is more outdoor and less indoor mixing.
see what happens when the school term ends and there is more outdoor and less indoor mixing.
Worth noting many people intend to travel outside their local area for Summer holidays over then next 8 weeks or so.
09:55 (for transparency this is a selection from the update, read it all if you want)
The "ferociously infectious" Delta variant could see Freedom Day pushed back again, a member of a scientific group advising the government has told Sky News.
Professor Peter Openshaw said it would be a "mistake" to bring the date forward from 19 July as vaccination rates are not yet high enough.
"It's so important that we get the vaccination rate as high as we can before any easement of restrictions," he told Kay Burley.
He said it was a "possibility" the lifting of restrictions could be pushed back again.
The government's track record of listening to what experts on the committee think is not great in the last 12 months, sadly.
As ever, unless people can see the volume of cases in the NHS causing an obvious immediate issue, keeping any of the restrictions due to be relaxed on 19th July is going to be very unpopular. The hidden 5.1 million on the waiting lists don't register to many. I can see restrictions being relaxed, the NHS being hit 1-2 months down the line and then we hit the schools returning and the start of the winter season.
In other news, one of my favourite pubs in Nottingham (though I've not been for 15 months) has just announced on FB that they are having to close for 10 days due to staff isolating, and they added #cheerschina. Post has just come down following a bit of a backlash to that.
In better news, Jnr has been invited to book his first jab next week as he turns 18 on Sunday - well done the NHS for being on top of it.
He said it was a “possibility” the lifting of restrictions
Need, some people seem to think I suggested it was definitely going to happen, but my actual words were:
There’s already talk of the 19th July going backward yet again despite it being “terminus”.
The hidden 5.1 million on the waiting lists don’t register to many.
I wonder how many of those 5.1 million are stuck on a waiting list because the consultant won't see them face to face and they (rightly) refuse a phone consultation.
One of those is schoolchildren, and it will be interesting to see what happens when the school term ends and there is more outdoor and less indoor mixing.
Schools finish a month earlier in Scotland cf England so should be some signs there first, but hard to deconvolute
Crap weather won't help
Politically, the 19th is a fixed point now.
If we are still following the data it shouldn't be.
I think it's fair to say that normal life isn't going to return in the next 12-18 months. Vaccination programs are not aligned globally, new variants will continue to pose a risk, and hospitals will continue to struggle the balance between COVID patients and backlogs.
Regardless of the hospitalisation and death rates not rising as previously, surely there’s a real economic impact when a large proportion of the public are isolating?
This quarentine bit is what I don't get. They are opening up society including pubs and clubs with zero social distancing, yet they then expect you to self isolate for 10 days if you've been in contact with a anyone who tests positive. Even if there was personally zero risk to me or my family from going to a pub, it would mean that there is the constant threat of 10 days self isolation hanging over you.
Unless the expectation is no-one bothers with self isolation as soon as the country opens up?
I wonder how many of those 5.1 million are stuck on a waiting list because the consultant won’t see them face to face and they (rightly) refuse a phone consultation.
None of my extended family who have needed to see a doctor or consultant face to face - between us that's a GP, heart consultant, cancer unit, dementia and orthopeadic consultants - have had a problem getting a face to face consultation.
I'm seeing a physio face to face at 3pm, and thevwhole family have seen an NHS dentist at least once this year.
Our experience does not appear to fit your suggestion.
If we are still following the data it shouldn’t be.
We aren’t. I’m glad they looked at the data and pushed the original date back from June, but politically I don’t think they can move that July 19th date now. I just hope they aren’t wedded to some idea of “back to normal” on that date, rather than a further relaxation. If we end up with kids missing education next term, and small businesses failing because of slack trade and absent staff, just so that snowflakes don’t have to wear masks while queuing in Tesco over the rest of summer, I wouldn’t consider that the right trade off.
If we are still following the data it shouldn’t be.
Hence the term 'politically'. There has always been a trade off between what was the most appropriate scientific approach, and what our masters have felt was politically acceptable.
Sadly, that has generally meant delaying action and making things worse. I don't expect that to change. The most recent example appears to be keeping India off the red list (for purely political reasons). This probably brought forward the delta case curve in time, costing us a number of weeks of extra vaccination (which of course, were far more valuable than the extra month of vaccinations we are having now).
Still, it's particularly handy that Madeira made it to the Green list just in time for the PM to go off on holiday there.
Is he? Really?!? He wouldn't? Would he?!? Read the room Johnson... read the room...
The forelock tuggers will still be in awe of him if he does go on holiday. When they can't get their own holidays abroad in because he left us open to importing the Delta variant, and failed to stop it taking hold, they'll blame anyone but him.
[ He kept the fights from India busy despite putting in controls for those flying from their neighbours (to be able to rub up along Modi). He is responsible for the keeping jobs in the family Dido Harding's world class test track and trace programme. ]
tpbiker
Free MemberUnless the expectation is no-one bothers with self isolation as soon as the country opens up?
I think that's absolutely the expectation. And then of course if/when it becomes a problem they can say "alas, people ignored the rules"