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That is my potential concern, that now we are all vunerable to flu having not had it going around for 18 months, will there be a flu lockdown/restrictions?
I can't imagine that going down too well.
will there be a flu lockdown/restrictions?
Boris already said we might expect lockdowns over the winter period but didn't clarify for which virus.
Boris already said we might expect lockdowns over the winter period but didn’t clarify for which virus.
But as usual, that quite key message got buried in a load of government waffle, and didn't receive much media coverage, so it will be huge shock and U turn if it has to happen - which I really hope it doesn't!
I think we're doomed if restrictions eased in a few weeks. Right now we're putting enormous selection pressure on the Covid-19 virus with a combination of high vaccination rates and relatively high infection rates in unvaccinated people.
Fortunately we can rely on Johnson and Hancock to do exactly the right thing. Oh, wait. Definitely doomed.
Boris already said we might expect lockdowns over the winter period but didn’t clarify for which virus.
I know this may sound like a rehashed April 2020 argument - so to be very clear, I am talking about our bog standard, seasonal flu, and not Covid19:
When will it end if this is the case. There would be never ending annual winter flu lockdowns as we never build up a herd immunity.
Surely we should be shielding the elderly/vunerable, and letting it rip through the rest of us?
When will it end if this is the case. There would be never ending annual winter flu lockdowns as we never build up a herd immunity.
Hopefully, as lockdowns are eased around the world in 2022, we will get back to a more normal flu cycle where we build the appropriate flu vaccine based on what we are seeing in other countries ahead of our own flu season. (If I understand it correctly)
Going forward, "normal" will not be quite the same as it was pre Covid, but it will not be the dystopia lockdown nightmare some seem to be concerned about. Tired has said pretty consistently it would be two years before a new normal is established, we are getting there.
Surely we should be shielding the elderly/vunerable, and letting it rip through the rest of us?
Pretty much what is happening now. Elderley/vunerable are mostly vaccinated, young groups not and helping this new strain spread.
Surely we should be shielding the elderly/vunerable, and letting it rip through the rest of us?
Vaccinating for both Covid as it evolves and the latest flu strains for anyone who wants the jab is a better option than having loads of people off work/school, some with long Covid/post viral syndrome, some dead (because Covid and flu kill a few young people too) and more mutation possible.
Letting any potentially fatal and dibilitating disease "rip through the rest of us" is best avoided. Especially when there are vaccines.
There are currently studies into whether Covid and flu vaccines can be combined, or jabbed in opposing arms at the same time, or need to be spaced out. I expect/hope that flu vaccinations will be far more freely (available for free) this coming winter than in past years in the UK.
Letting any potentially fatal and dibilitating disease “rip through the rest of us” is best avoided. Especially when there are vaccines.
Its a horrible turn of phrase, but this is effectively what we have done for all of history for winter flu.
I would hope (maybe naively) that even with a Boris approved free for all that flu transmission would be reduced, as a significant population are now subconsciously hand washing and coughing into their sleeves and keeping their distance more than before.
Kelvin, reading this thread for a while now with interest. It has become apparent that you in particular seem to be actively trying to bully others who hold a different, but perfectly well reasoned opinion on lockdown policy.
Rather than engage in debate, it would seem that your method is simply to silence and ridicule and batter into submission, others with whom you disagree. I have observed you calling people conspiracy theorists, trolls, bots, ****ers, you name it. Your ears are closed to reason yet through pig-ignorance you force your narrow minded opinions onto others. Have you nothing better to do with your life? Really?
Reading back through your posts it seems that you are perfectly happy with the destruction of others in society less fortunate than yourself through lockdown policy, purely because it keeps YOU safe. It seems that you are ‘alright Jack’. That is selfish in the extreme.
Sadly these are not the traits of someone who is healthy or normal. This behaviour is bordering on the obsessive and it has to stop!
You also do not seem to have a grasp on the facts. You have lost all sense of reality and proportion of the dangers posed by Covid. You seem to ignore that the survival rate is in excess of 99.77%. That the average age of death from (or with) Covid is above the average age of all cause mortality. That over 90% of all deaths are from people with other health conditions that meant they were already seriously ill or badly health compromised. That the virus has now proven to be, by several orders of magnitude, way less serious than we thought it was back in early 2020. You seem to flippantly dismiss the huge collateral damage of lockdown on a regular basis, in a misguided view that it was somehow necessary and un-avoidable.
Yet your doom-laden narrative is being dis-proven day by day as more evidence comes to light. There is strong scientific evidence out there now that lockdown policy causes way more long term health damage to a nation than it has ever claimed to solve. There is strong evidence out there that lockdown was never scientifically required and that a targeted approach, allocating resources where they were needed most, rather than spreading them thinly, would have caused far less collateral damage. There is no evidence from around the world to show that lockdown has saved any lives. Yet despite the truth glaring you in the face, you remain stuck in your virtue signalling rut, doubling down rather than admitting that you could possibly have ever been wrong.
Meanwhile out in the real world, thankfully not many are now listening to you and your overly cautious and doom-laden preaching. People want to get on with their lives, to dance, to smile, to hug, to sing, to travel and to be with loved ones without the likes of a sad, scared and obsessive little busybody like you trying to dictate to them how they should think and what would be best for them.
So as a friendly tip, might I suggest that perhaps now might be a good time for you to take stock, to engage with reality and perhaps consider apologising to those you have bullied with your extremist views. Do it now please while you still have a chance to save face, and before you go down with your ship, the SS-Lockdown with its rudder stuck to starboard and badly holed below the water line.
^^^^ GBNews has a lot to answer for, it seems
Its a horrible turn of phrase, but this is effectively what we have done for all of history for winter flu.
Until we developed a vaccine to protect the vulnerable, as we have done for quite a few years now. We used to let smallpox run riot till, you know, we developed a vaccine.
Kelvin, reading this thread for a while now
Great first post. Welcome (back?) to the forum.
Right now we’re putting enormous selection pressure on the Covid-19 virus with a combination of high vaccination rates and relatively high infection rates in unvaccinated people.
on the plus side the selection pressure is in the direction of making it more contagious rather than deadly, so hopefully -in a vaccinated population- that makes it much less of a worry
Great first post. Welcome (back?) to the forum.
Diminishing returns on username quality for this iteration. More effort required. On the plus side, we've gone straight past the stage where he pretends to ask reasonable questions, and is already picking on particular forum members, so we are probably already pretty close to the 'starts swearing, posts offensive content and gets banned' point.
Kelvin, reading this thread for a while now with interest. It has become apparent that you in particular seem to be actively trying to bully others who hold a different, but perfectly well reasoned opinion on lockdown policy.
I have disagreed with many people. I have been wrong many times in this thread, not least on mask wearing, where many other posters I disagreed with, though discussion, helped change my understanding and view on them being of very real use in this pandemic (my initial opinion was that we shouldn't use them, I was wrong, it's all there early in the thread if you fancy a read).
But we have had a run of accounts created just to post anti-vax themes. I think it should be pointed out where these accounts pop up. I'd go further and say people shouldn't be allowed to create accounts just to spread misinformation about vaccines and the pandemic more generally. That I call these people out you might call bullying. They can explain for themselves why they have created (additional?) new accounts just to post in threads relating to the pandemic.
EDIT: Oh, you're using another fresh account. I see. I have gigs booked for straight after the new date for relaxation of rules by the way, so I'm hoping that we'll be less "locked down" asap as well. I wish we'd got to that point already, and with a few different decisions made by government along the way, we would have.
So as a friendly tip, might I suggest that perhaps now might be a good time for you to take stock, to engage with reality and perhaps consider apologising to those you have bullied with your extremist views.
Here's a friendly tip. When you put forward a position expect those arguments to be challenged and robustly so.
Yet your doom-laden narrative is being dis-proven
This is a bit like the statement that some want lockdown to go on and on and on, when actually no one wants. I'm not sure I've seen anyone ever argue for a lockdown as anything other than a least worst last resort option and should be done in such a way to minimize the duration and impact.
^ +1
Oh, you’re using another fresh account
Can we keep him?
perhaps consider apologising to those you have bullied with your extremist views.
From someone who has opened an account just to bully someone who doesn't let conspiracy theory bollocks go unchallenged that's a bit rich. Same bollocks, different pseudo.
Argh for the life of me I can't quite remember what @chump's previous login was?
Dunno, but he reads like he's the pilot who lost his job flying 747's... could be wrong
Bye
😂
There is no evidence from around the world to show that lockdown has saved any lives.
We've argued about this before, Chump. I'll cite New Zealand, Australia, France, Germany... as places where lockdowns have demostrably cut transmission and prevented deaths - because saved lives is the wrong way of looking at it. Medics save lives once people have caught the virus but if you stop people getting it you prevent death.
Why don’t you all stay inside behind your sofas whilst the rest of us get on with our lives.
I’m down the pub. There are no sofas for me here. In all other respects it’s lovely though.
Ah right! Got a few pilots where I work driving supermarket vans currently.....I'm in a bit of limbo really....my gigs are slowly (very) returning. I actually did my first one in 17 months, a wedding, last Saturday night. Only 30 guests.....very little social distancing or mask wearing adherence. They were both doctors. Can't say it felt particularly Covid safe, it did however make me realise that in spite of how stressful being a self employed musician can be, the feeling I get from it all is priceless.
Taken in and scared shipless by all the biased propaganda.
Scared shipless? Is that the reason i can't afford a yacht.
Will get right on being less scared, when do i get my ship (yes i know a yacht is a boat before you pedantic arses start)
It's reminiscent of something
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/quick-gardening-question-bambooooo/
Is it jut me that doesnt know who it is then?
I don't
No I still can't remember the other login.
Lolz at that bamboo thread though, I'd missed that!
Could be Chrispo?
I don't think so, I hope not tbh because that's just being daft - abusing your potential customer base.
OK, I'm trying to remember who used that exact phrase about lockdowns not working a couple of months back, or even more recently. If Chrispo is someone from Singletrack as you imply that makes my suggestion quite funny.
Chrispo....that was whom I was thinking of!
Haha, what a sad and pathetic bunch of bed-wetting melts you are.
Stage 3 achieved. How long until he posts porn like last time? 🙂
Who did? I missed that!
Me too! Why do I miss all of the good stuff 😂
Chrispo isn't usually that aggressive in his tone, I'd discounted him.
I thought about penning a response to our new contributor but decided I couldn't give a ship.
There is no evidence from around the world to show that lockdown has saved any lives.
This should be a clear giveaway as it's so demonstrably wrong, I can't believe it's still being even raised. I can't find who the big proponent was previously, but it's either the same person or someone channelling it to get the reaction.
We had a statewide lockdown in Queensland. It was over a year ago I think.
My ICU colleagues were tachycardic - i remember being told that we would be overrun by mid-April and it would look like Italy or the UK.
But in the end the lockdown was lovely. Like a little holiday for many, though difficult for plenty i'm sure. Sadly seven people died from coronavirus. Then we slowly opened up again. Life is 90+% normal again and has been for ages. Every now and then there's a leak from another state or a quarantined traveller. But because the numbers are so small contact tracing and localised lockdowns work well.
Fingers crossed it continues to work well, or we'll have to revert to using a large-scale lockdown. Because the evidence proved @chump that it worked very well indeed.
Chump... nice username/adjective quite clever don't ya think...
Again?
Can we please keep this the page for realists?
The fantasists have enough of the rest of the internet to turn it inside out twice over.
Just the real stuff here please, some of us are looking here for some clarity.
Sydney outbreak update.... beep.... beep.... beep
22 new cases yesterday, bringing the cluster size to 65 - a fair few have come in after the reporting window - so it looks like tomorrow is going to be a pretty big number too (for us).
As a result, they have put 4 local council areas (about 500,000 people) into lockdown:
Woollahra, Waverley, Randwick and City of Sydney Councils.
Due to the risk associated with an increasing number of exposure venues where transmission has occurred, from 11.59pm tonight until at least 11.59pm on Friday 2 July, residents of, or people whose usual place of work is in, the four LGAs must stay at home unless it is for an essential reason.The reasons you may leave your home include:
Shopping for food or other essential goods and services;
Medical care or compassionate needs;
Exercise outdoors in groups of 10 or fewer;
Essential work, or education, where you cannot work or study from home.
This is basically Sydney city Centre, and everything east of it to the sea (all the eastern suburbs beaches eg: bondi), and south to the airport. Represents probably the most affluent area in the whole of Australia - which is is interesting.
I live in the "Inner west" which is directly to the west of the City Centre - if this expands at all..... it'll be us.
They were talking-up the contact tracing, but obviously everybody was super-focused on the lockdown orders. I'll confirm it when more details come out, but it sounded to me like what we are seeing now is a bump in numbers associated with household transmission, and confirmed cases in those people who as "close contacts" have been in lockdown since soon after exposure (ie: have not been infectious in the community) - but that might be wishful thinking!
Fingers crossed for you @batfink
Represents probably the most affluent area in the whole of Australia – which is is interesting.
Well, yes...
I’d honestly welcome a sound well evidenced case for lockdowns not working. But the arguments I’ve seen so far don’t even stack up with their own evidence. Let alone the logical failings on the arguments structures. There’s some impressive logical leaps and selective acceptance of what’s relevant and what isn’t. I find it quite difficult to get my head around why certain factors with credible and logical evidence are completely ignored/disregarded.
There’s a level of faith in what someone accepts as “fact” that I do not have.
+1
I think many have been incredibly patient at discussing the counter-opinions. And yes, debunking / explaining the evidence. As much as I continue to respect the right to have a different opinion I can't (yet - I'm open minded) change my opinion that eg: lockdowns work / vaccines work / this is not a deep state-pharma conspiracy.
And in general I'd do the same again because I don't think yelling 'IDIOT!' or worse at people with a different opinion has got any minds changed, rather has entrenched views.
But undoubtedly there are trolls and sealions a-plenty as well, just here for the sport and it is a bit fish in a barrel for them, tbh.
Going straight in with the 'cowering melts behind the sofa' and personal attacks is not the starting position for a new poster whose intent is to propose a different opinion and debate it openly though. So safety catches off, fire at will.
In our case - the “lockdown” of certain suburbs is to slow the spread of the virus while the test and trace does it’s job. With this variant, super-spreader events are hugely more likely, so they need to stop people going to cinemas, swimming pools etc until they get the cork back in the bottle.
I’m swinging somewhere between optimism and extreme pessimism. At least it’s interesting I suppose…. And nobody has died (yet)
There's definitely an argument that the way the UK and some other countries have gone about lockdowns - late, half-arsed, poorly communicated, not backed up with travel bans and/or proper quarantine, all of which extended the time they were needed - reduced the potential speed and effectiveness of lockdowns.
But that's not the same as "lockdowns don't work", as those who did it properly have shown. And none of the lockdown deniers seem to have any evidence that the alternative is better, because, well, Brazil for example.
But as Australia seems about to show, lockdowns, strict travel and quarantine rules, thorough track and trace, are only really useful if you can get ahead with the vaccination programme.
Really hope the Aussies get on top of this again, if only to show - yet again - how a proper system will work.
Next day or so is critical for Australia. They're doing everything right at this point, but this is not the same virus they were trying to get under control last year.
So safety catches off, fire at will.
I have a feeling we'll have to wait for the next variant of this particular poster to pop up first.
but this is not the same virus they were trying to get under control last year.
Yes, that is absolutely clear, and is being trumpeted loudly by anyone in front of a camera.
The states are all pointing fingers at the federal government for the poor procurement of Vaccines, which they say is responsible for the low vaccination rate. However, I don't think we are too far behind most other countries, once you remove the UK and US as outliers.
I'm genuinely impressed with the track and trace, they are basically trying to catch positive cases before they become symptomatic, and seem to be doing a pretty decent job of it - the numbers might continue to go up for a while yet, but lets see if the rate of new infection locations popping-up slows down.
At the risk of asking somebody to repeat themselves, do we know anything about the hospitalization/death rate of the delta variant?
Delta, started touring early it seems
At the risk of asking somebody to repeat themselves, do we know anything about the hospitalization/death rate of the delta variant?
I tried looking, and I think the truth is that "we don't know". The data that suggested it causes both higher morbidity and mortality in India seems to have been roundly debunked as possibly being an effect of too many cases and not enough testing. And the data in the UK showing the opposite is too hard to disentangle from the effects of so many people having been vaccinated. I think a lot of countries behind us on vaccinations where this variant has not yet taken over will be erring on the side of caution though.
yes, I suppose if nothing else, we will be able to give you some data on that!
Our learings so far: "transmissible as ****"
do we know anything about the hospitalization/death rate of the delta variant?
In les Landes the figures released so far don't point to the Delta variant being significantly more aggressive despite initial reports in the Lancet based on Scottish numbers that it causses twice the hospitalisation rate.
Given the small numbers in les Landes, the high vaccination rate among older people and the fact that most cases are young it's hard to draw conclusions at this point.
https://www.lci.fr/sante/variant-delta-les-nouveaux-cas-francais-sont-ils-graves-2189701.html
I've seen reports from India that 50% of the population are thought to have had Covid. Even if you add a zero (or even two zeros) to the official death figures the death rate isn't that high if 50% really have had the virus.
I’ve seen reports from India that 50% of the population are thought to have had Covid.
Seems very optimistic, even accounting for increased transmissibility of delta and local circumstances which increase spread. I think we were running at something like 10-15% after wave 1.
I remember some equally optimistic noises coming out of the Great Barrington mob here last summer.
We need @TiRed to point us to current best data trying to compare the variants.
You can't work out accurate death rates for India at the moment. Reports i have read is that to be able to have a death reported as covid it needed a positive test which were nearly non existant for most people.
The only way we will find out is from census data in the future for most countries without developed healthcare systems. I think the Indian ones are going to be a horrifying amount higher than the official numbers. Probably closer to add two 0 to the number than 1. If not bigger.
https://twitter.com/davidlipson/status/1408233257993314304
Clients+potential contacts, apparently. But still, yikes.
Shows that we can’t let down our guard yet.
Latest news from Israel.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57594155
Interesting in Israel - precaution to see if infections result in hospitalizations maybe?
BBC News - Coronavirus: Israel reimposes masks amid new virus fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57594155
Aaaaaaaaaand the whole of Sydney is in lockdown for two weeks.
It’s half term, so schools not an issue - childcare staying open (thank ****)
How strict is the Sydney lockdown? It’s the most misused word of the pandemic imho.
Lockdown in Oz is legally enforceable afaik. In Queensland we had police enforcement last year.
At the moment the assumption here is that it's spreading like crazy.
Wait times for vaccine in my area is currently 3 months.
People will be fined significant sums for breaches.
However, my local info (director of a major vaccination centre) is that it's lack of community response that was the problem rather than supply of vaccine. Ie complacency.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-26/nsw-covid-19-lockdown-rules-explained/100246644
How strict is the Sydney lockdown? It’s the most misused word of the pandemic imho.
I think you can exercise outdoors in groups of up to 10. According to the Brits in this thread last year, that’s not a lockdown and will result in thousands of excess deaths.
The rules:
Under the new restrictions that kicked off at 6:00pm on Saturday, people in Greater Sydney, the Blue Mountains, Central Coast and Wollongong can only leave home for the following four reasons:
Shopping for food or other essential goods and services
Medical care or compassionate needs (including to get a COVID-19 vaccine)
Exercise outdoors in groups of 10 or fewer
Essential work, or education, where you cannot work or study from home
Ms Berejikian said weddings would be permitted to take place today and tomorrow on compassionate grounds.However, from Monday they would not be allowed until at least July 9.
Funerals will be permitted with a maximum 100 guests (subject to the four-square-metre rule) for the duration of the lockdown.
Latest Variant Report Published
Page 13
This is a summary of the table. It suggests a 65% reduction in hospitalisations and deaths for those aged over 50 who test positive and have been double vaccinated.
I do wonder if the average age in the 2 doses group and the unvaccinated group are the same. This would impact the results.
A bit worrying that there is still a 1.4% chance of dying after testing positive and being double vaccinated when aged over 50.
Also, not all of the people who tested positive will have either receovered or died, so the 1.4% rate will increase.
I still have the same question as last time Neil, is that the effects on people who get tested only? Does it account for people who have been infected by with symptoms mild enough they dont notice/bother with testing.
So how is Australia/NZ going to get out of this? Will enough of them vaccinate - and by when? Or will they have travel restrictions and intermittent lockdowns for.....a decade?
Piemonster, it would be good to get some data to prove that but instictively that is possible.
Yeh it would be informative, I was wondering whether they undertook widespread testing symptoms or no symptoms just to calibrate the estimations.
So how is Australia/NZ going to get out of this? Will enough of them vaccinate – and by when? Or will they have travel restrictions and intermittent lockdowns for…..a decade?
Until there are sufficient supplies of vaccine, border restrictions and intermittent lockdowns will continue. We are not choosing that approach instead of vaccinating.
That won’t take a decade (obviously).
Vaccine hesitancy has been an issue undoubtedly - but that’s what happens when you have a vaccine with well/over reported risks vs zero risk (for months) of contracting covid, let alone dying from it. But the much bigger issue is availability - states can’t launch a concerted roll-out effort because they just don’t have the supplies to do that.
There is no evidence from around the world to show that lockdown has saved any lives
Funny. I can point to the U.K. data over this winter that showed we lost an extra 25-30k deaths just by postponing the lockdown to January. In fact I’ve posted the analysis here to show it. Not a great plot.
We will see seasonal winter respiratory disease increase. This will be a mix of influenza, RSV and covid. Winter is some time away. Likely some further strains away too for covid given the typical replacement time for alpha and delta. It’s u likely they will be U.K. generated, but we did make alpha.
But we have yet to see real vaccine escape (as we do for influenza), nor have we seen significant treatment escape (US have stopped Lilly antibody treatment this week). We will see oral medications coming by year end. AZ are about to announce their prophylaxis results for PROVENT. This is the answer for those not able to take the vaccine. It may also provide protection for immediate cover of a new imported variant.
I’d be planning autumn flu jabs with a booster for covid given at the same time. By then adults will be fully vaccinated and the system still in place to move to flu.
I don’t expect significant further lockdowns. But behavioural change is already baked in. And I like table service too 😎
If they published the ONS surveillance testing data at the same level of granuality that would be a way to analyse it. Unfortuntely I do not think it is published at that level.
Table service is great 🙂
Table service is the only “restriction” that feels like a gain rather than a loss to me. Beyond the pandemic, I’d happily pay extra to keep it.
As for delta. Well there is the obvious fact that it has replaced alpha in the U.K. the cases by age data that I have looked at show that this has been an explosion in the 20-29 age group since Mid-May. It is so evident as to be staggering. This against the presence of alpha means it MUST be more transmissible. Evolutionary fitness innit.
Now for morbidity. Transmissibility is related to binding to cells and rate of growth. Delta binds harder. It likely causes a higher rate of symptoms and hence admissions, but one cannot has ignore the cross protection of vaccination. In the U.K. also the age of admissions is now younger and they do not stay in hospital as long.
I said before the best data is from PHE following line-level data of individuals from their positive cases to subsequent admissions. This is not the cleanest source but it’s what we have. The null hypothesis is that one is more likely to suffer morbidity. How much? Hard to say. It identifies that the vaccine is protective against secondary infections I. Households and against symptoms and subsequent admissions.
[tl:dr] delta must be more transmission since it replaces alpha during unlocking. About twice that of the original Wuhan. Hospitalisation rate may be at least the same but protection by vaccination is a thing. A big thing.
Interesting in Israel – precaution to see if infections result in hospitalizations maybe?
What I find odd about Israel is they got to about 60%vaccinated quickly then rates levelled off and slowly climbed to about 64-65%.
The U.K. is at that level now but the rate is still holding steady and not slowing, this is encouraging to see and bodes well for a high percentage of our population being inoculated.
We’ve overtaken Israel now. And still pushing on. The next limiting factor on achieving a much higher population coverage is school age teens. The government need to be readying parents for that… I’m a bit worried that preparing the ground for that hasn’t begun yet. I think they consider it politically difficult. Which it probably is.
No bad news about vaccinating teens from places that have been doing it for a few weeks. If I had a 12-17 year old at home I'd have suggested they get vaccinated a few days ago. One of Madame's colleagues took her kid along for the jab last week - a science teacher.