I would just like to say!
Wales, Scotland and the North of England were all put on the German list of ‘high risk areas’ yesterday which means that quarantine restrictions apply if you travel from them. I am in Germany because my dad has been in intensive care for the last three weeks.
I need to go home but it basically means that I won’t be able to visit again before spring I reckon (at least not without working out significant quarantine logistics).
It’s just a bit gloomy. Also very odd having spent 6 months within 20 miles of my house then driving across Europe and staying in a city with fewer cases than the small town I live in.
I read somewhere that kids tend not to be affected because the particular receptor that the virus binds to develop with age, so kids don’t have many of them of the receptors, the number developing with age. Can’t remember where I read that I’m afraid.
I need to go home but it basically means that I won’t be able to visit again before spring I reckon (at least not without working out significant quarantine logistics).
Depends where you travel from. There is no restriction from the South East (yet). But it is not a great situation, I am afraid.
Is there a correlation between (pre-pubescent) kids not getting Covid and the ‘attachment’ of the virus to testes and ovaries?
I’ve seen the handmaids tale question a couple times...
Not quite sure who thinks the virus' point of entry to the body is via the bollocks. Would probably change the Hands/Face/Space mantra a bit.
There is a specific protein on the surface of cells that the virus binds to in order to enter them. A current theory is that kids don't express as much of it.
Glands/Face/Space?
Not quite sure who thinks the virus’ point of entry to the body is via the bollocks.
Who is? I specifically stated ‘attachment’. I’m pretty clued up on viral transmission routes of covid as I’ve needed to read relevant guidance for work. Although tbf aerosols are pretty close to bollocks aren’t they? 🤪
🙂
I'm taking all possible precautions now just in case.
As I understand it Ace2 receptor is expressed differently further down the pipe - the colon,in kids, which may explain why they are more likely to get diarrhoea than coughing symptoms
And as virus can survive in faeces hand washing could be v important in schools
Both testes & ovaries have a blood-ovary /testes barrier of sorts
So remains to be seen if/how virus may effect them,
as ever, more study required!
That picture is disturbing me. One ear elastic is round his neck....where is the other one anchored!?
In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin.
I thought that was an interesting list of things to be taking.
There's been quite a bit about vitamin D and zinc, most recently with Matt Hancock telling us vitamin D doesn't do anything. I guess the president's doctors think otherwise.
I'd not heard of those others before though.
EDIT: melatonin - do we all need to be getting to bed at a sensible time?
Anyone looked at the case numbers yet today? <whistles>
Can't imagine why the 4.30pm release was delayed until nearly 9...
Something about a backlog of cases since the 24th. Even then it bumps the seven day average way up
Anyone looked at the case numbers yet today? <whistles>
About 12k new cases. But if Imperial College survey is correct (no reason to doubt it) there should be way more than that - more like 30+k/day. So they're just finding more people now.
Hospitalizations is a more useful metric.
Something about a backlog of cases since the 24th. Even then it bumps the seven day average way up.
Even allowing for reporting delays and testing capacity that graph looks ominous heading towards half term and winter.
In addition to the polyclonal antibodies
Actually monoclonal - he has received Regeneron's twin mAb cocktail which was derived from a patient who recovered from SARS-COV2 infection. So they can legitimately claim "By appointment to POTUS". They published (pdf download of the presentation) their early treatment study results this week, and they look very good indeed.
Full disclosure - I'm working on the GSK/VIR antibody that is not a cocktail - it was isolated from a patient who recovered from SARS-COV1 in the 2003 epidemic not the current one.
Anyone looked at the case numbers yet today? <whistles>
You mean this data here?
There is a reason why people don't always like log plots. You have to step back and take a wider view of the picture. You can see a separation between deaths and admission - perhaps treatment is improving and hospitals have been less stretched, you can see the nadir of cases is about a week earlier than deaths, you can see that both are rising, and with the eye of faith, perhaps admissions are slowing a little. Perhaps...
You can also see why the government have acted.
What is the hospital admission doubling rate approximately TiRed?
Thanks.
Interesting read:
https://medium.com/the-atlantic/this-overlooked-variable-is-the-key-to-the-pandemic-e71fe9bcb315
It’s all about the clusters...
What is the hospital admission doubling rate approximately TiRed?
7-10 days, may be flattening now to two weeks, most likely due to actions two weeks ago:
From the data:
01-Sep 58 x1.4 =
07-Sep 84 x2.3 =
15-Sep 194 x1.4 =
21-Sep 275 x1.3 =
01-Oct 368
etc - so an average of about 1.6x per week, 1.6^2 for two weeks. There is a lot of hysteresis in the system. The general public do not understand hysteresis.
https://twitter.com/justinmadders/status/1312484429248356352?s=19
I know of an outbreak at one London uni that's not been made public yet while they figure out the size, but testing delays are hampering things
Assuming hospital admissions are accurate, definitely the more useful measure!
Thanks TiRed.
Interesting article about the clusters, I'd be interested to see what better qualified people than me make of it, though to me it seems the article seems to head towards "viral load" being a key factor in why clusters occur
Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds: burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation. The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.
I’m not sure where you got that from, I read it as being more about the location/conditions...
Edit: I guess you the mean the viral load in a location as opposed to the viral load of particular individuals.
jam-bo, interesting article from The Atlantic; had already seen it but it's worth sharing.
I’d be interested to see what better qualified people than me make of it
Very much my thought.
"Dad.. I don't want to go to school tomorrow. I don't want to catch Corona".
There are confirmed cases at our local secondary. How do you explain to your kids that it's safe to go to school when they know putting 1200 kids into a crowded building contradicts all advice for social distancing or not mixing in large groups.
Explain it away logically as you would any worry, little chance of actually catching it if they wash hands, and don't touch faces, and if they do, every chance it'll bring mild symptoms, if any, at that age.
Daughter's school coincidentally has 1200 pupils, been back since mid August, not a single positive report.
Regarding secondary schools - it seems the reports of cases in Scotland at that age all involve families returning from foreign holidays, teenage parties outwith school or something similar.
Now I've no figures, that's just reading what's in the press and speaking to local authorities.
The bigger running theme in schools and local authorities concerns is not having too many adults outside of school staff coming into the school. We at work get away with it in most places as we work totally outdoors, our staff don't go into the building at all.
nobeer they won't tell you if there is a positive case, there are seemis codes(registration that are covid related). If I get symptoms I'm not even allowed to warn colleagues (to be more careful) or say I've been for a test. Going by the letter of the communication I'm not allowed to tell anyone apart from my line manager.
Explain it away logically
This. Explain that for children and the majority of adults, the infection is not serious, a bit like having a cold (or even less). But for some, particularly the elderly, it can be very serious. Protecting those who might become very poorly is the reason that we are taking precautions. Also explain that it is unlikely that any of the teachers are likely to be affected seriously, and those who are at risk will be taking extra care.
Not a problem I have any more, although son1 is now a graduate teaching assistant.
Great advice TIred.
My lovely neighbours also have a home in Spain. They arrived back in the UK a few weeks ago.
After isolating for 2 weeks they are now allowed out. They are quite surprised at the lax way we British are with the rules.
In Spain you have to wear a mask when outside. In all tiny villages right up to the big cities there are police enforcing these rules. Everyone wears a mask and wears it properly.
The neighbour has noticed with despair the amount of people here not wearing a mask where they should and in many cases only over their mouth (not nose). This drives us both mad.
We need to be more forceful. It so easy to do the right thing.
Breakdown of yesterday's positive tests in Scotland, by age.
Not, it would appear, now overwhelmingly made up of school children and students.
What that doesn't show (either way) is whether asymptomatic kids might be spreading it though
Yeah, it was more in a response to the concerned child scenario.
Yeah, soz, just saw that!
Kids aren’t really concerned for themselves though, are they? We (well I hope most of us) have been drilling into them for months that they won’t be harmed by this… but kids, especially teenagers, care about others in their community as much more than their elders. We know adults like to joke about teens being selfish, but most are highly altruistic.
Kids aren’t really concerned for themselves though, are they?
Many are. Many suffer from anxiety.
Great advice TIred.
My lovely neighbours also have a home in Spain. They arrived back in the UK a few weeks ago.
After isolating for 2 weeks they are now allowed out. They are quite surprised at the lax way we British are with the rules.
In Spain you have to wear a mask when outside. In all tiny villages right up to the big cities there are police enforcing these rules. Everyone wears a mask and wears it properly.
The neighbour has noticed with despair the amount of people here not wearing a mask where they should and in many cases only over their mouth (not nose). This drives us both mad.We need to be more forceful. It so easy to do the right thing.
Yeah - Spain has been a paragon of virtue with cases and deaths, hasn’t it? Have a look at their case rate a few weeks ago - well over 10k a day and they’ve had a far more extreme enforcement programme, so it hasn’t really worked that well for them.
I despair when people on here think that giving the government more control over your lives and being more fascistic will yield results, when it clearly hasn’t in countries like Spain.
JP
How do you explain to your kids that it’s safe
You cant, its not. All you can do is say that you are very very very unlikely to notice it and even more unlikely to get poorly. Its pretty much safe for them whether that means its safe for others is open to debate.
How would you fix C19 then JP?
Kids aren’t really concerned for themselves though, are they?
I stood at a classroom door and greeted the first kid into my school in June, it was very obvious they were shiting themselves.
Does wearing masks out in the street actually make any difference to transmission rates (especially if other social distancing guidelines are followed)?
I despair when people on here think that giving the government more control over your lives and being more fascistic will yield results, when it clearly hasn’t in countries like Spain.
I agree to an extent with your point, but Spain is a bad example for both arguments as the vast majority of cases are in Madrid, whereas England is much more even in comparison
Not, it would appear, now overwhelmingly made up of school children and students.
However, the two largest categories of cases involve 20 year wide age bands, whereas the younger ones are just a 5 year spread.
oldnpastiit
I guess the president’s doctors think otherwise.
I wouldn't read much into that either way... they are dealing with a petulant self obcessed 5yr old who can and will sack them if they disagree.
