I don't think it's a lack of faith in others to ask for a science led response that has a clear goal and a clear idea of how long it'll take, I think it's just a sensible approach.
Look at this thread, so much written about uncertainty, changing of rules, changing of approach, no reasoning why, etc,
Make it clearer and tell us how long and you make it easier and more likely to follow.
After having a discussion with a young person who is being forced to self isolate its clear that they are more afraid and upset that they are stuck alone for 2 weeks rather than they have a nasty virus that could make them very ill.
Chances of them breaking quarantine? High.
You won’t get support for another indefinite lockdown, people are fed up already so it’ll be broken and broken quickly.
You won't get any support for anything that remotely resembles the kind of measures brought in in March, because:
• Dominic Cummings
• Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Test and Trace chaos and a 'World Beating' system that is totally unfit for purpose
• Dominic Cummings
• The disappearing 'World Beating' App
• Dominic Cummings
• Care Home body count
• shameless Government corruption, handing out multi-million PPE contracts to their mates
• More Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Dido Hardings rewards for failure
• Highest death rate in Europe
• Even more Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Yet more Government incompetence
• Matt Hancock
• Complete and total Government ineptitude
• Gavin Williamson's exam fiasco
• Gavin Williamson's school reopening fiasco
• Gavin Williamson's university reopening fiasco
etc, etc...
Any sacrifices made need to be a trade off. Does anyone seriously believe that if these gaggle of clowns were given the same trust and scope that they were granted by the UK population in March that they'd do any better?
Exactly!
stevemuzzy
Free MemberAfter having a discussion with a young person who is being forced to self isolate its clear that they are more afraid and upset that they are stuck alone for 2 weeks rather than they have a nasty virus that could make them very ill.
That's perfectly rational tbh, the odds of them having the virus are probably fairly low, the odds of it making them significant ill are much lower if they're in good health, but the odds of being locked inside for 2 weeks are 100%. And if the first two odds don't come up, then you might have to do it again, in fact you might have to do it again literally the day you come out of isolation. So it's inevitable that one's more in your mind than the other. Especially if you're at one of the peak times like starting uni etc, where it's definitely 2 weeks you'll never get back. Self isolating is a much bigger deal if you're 18 than it is for me at 40.
Not defending it, mind, just saying it's rational and inevitable, because people are people. And the more you are alone, the more selfish you tend to be. I literally just read this last night by coincidence...
“Individuals aren't naturally paid-up members of the human race, except biologically. They need to be bounced around by the Brownian motion of society, which is a mechanism by which human beings constantly remind one another that they are...well...human beings.”
After having a discussion with a young person who is being forced to self isolate its clear that they are more afraid and upset that they are stuck alone for 2 weeks rather than they have a nasty virus that could make them very ill.
Frankly after speaking with loads of people, including:
My 65 year old Dad who was told to shield because of a heart complaint.
A colleague who has to take immune suppressants for a heart complaint.
Our 75+ old neighbours.
84 year old client.
I'd say on balance most people are more worried about the sanctions than the virus, don't get me wrong they all support a lock down in some way, shape or form... but mostly they will all break the rules in a "specific and limited way" because they either think they're safe, or because they think their actions won't make any difference.
That's the problem this time around, everyone's got an excuse to keep doing what they've been doing all summer because they've either squinted so much they think there's an exclusion in the rules for it (there isn't) or a "common sense" reason why those rules can be ignored without hurting the common good.
The "Cummings effect" won't go away... will it.
Rant of year award goes to Binners.
Brilliant.
The “Cummings” effect won’t go away
I think it could go away but it relies on the government coming out and saying "we made mistakes, specifically these, and we apologise unreservedly".
But they won't, so no, it won't go away.
Nah... Binners didn't mention Boris, Raab or Gove; or even Helen chuffing Whately (idiot savant extraordinaire but without the savant bit)
But they won’t, so no, it won’t go away.
SPOT. ON.
If you sat down with a focus group and you brainstormed how you could most effectively sow distrust, lose the most goodwill, undermine every shred of credibility and label yourself as horribly aloof, superior, arrogant, uncaring and above the law, then you couldn't come up with anything more effective than the Barnard Castle Eye Test followed by the Rose Garden non-apology.
After having a discussion with a young person who is being forced to self isolate its clear that they are more afraid and upset that they are stuck alone for 2 weeks rather than they have a nasty virus that could make them very ill.
If you are a young person, you are *very* unlikely to become seriously ill or die from this thing.
You might pass it on to someone who will. But it feels like our children are getting a pretty raw deal out of this.
Cummings effect is no accident.
Allows them to "lockdown" without hitting the economy as hard, whilst shifting failure responsibility back to the people.
The last lockdown was too effective for their liking . Cummings acted to reduce the likelihood of that reoccurring.
The last lockdown was too effective for their liking . Cummings acted to reduce the likelihood of that reoccurring.
You're ascribing intelligence, thought and planning to a group of our 'leaders', who I'm not sure are that deserving.
The “Cummings effect” won’t go away… will it.
Cummings is Boris' lightening rod.
Boris wants to do something against popular opinion, he gets the press the blame Cummings.
Boris wants people to go out and spend money, but at the same time as telling them to stay in and protect each other, get Cummings to do it and then, better still tell the world he didn't do anything wrong.
It's not a new thing, Blair used Alistair Campbell in a less overt way, un-elected but seemingly pulling the strings behind closed doors, supposedly had Minsters quaking in their boots etc and they made sure 'bad' news had his finger prints all over them.
Not sure which daily figures we should be watching most closely… but all are up today.
All will become clear in the daily briefing, I’m sure. They can also use that to explain to people in the NE what new laws apply to them tomorrow, why they are being put in place, and how they can avoid breaking them. That is literately the least they should be doing.
71 deaths today, thats not good is it, at least 2 more weeks of that going up.
I posted this on the Johnson thread but it sits well here as well.
From BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54342688
Both he and a junior minister didn't know the rules. Not surprising as they are so bloody complicated.
Mr Johnson was asked to clarify the rules after a junior minister was unable to do so.
When asked if people in the North East could still meet people from other households outside, such as in a pub garden, Mr Johnson said people should follow local guidance and urged them to use their common sense.
He went on to talk about the separate rule of six.
"In the North East and other areas where extra tight measures have been brought in, you should follow the guidance of local authorities - but it's six in a home, six in hospitality but, as I understand it, not six outside," he said.
On Twitter, Mr Johnson later apologised and clarified that the new law meant those in the North East "cannot meet people from different households in social settings indoors, including in pubs, restaurants and your home".
"You should also avoid socialising with other households outside," he added.
And
Earlier, when asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme if people in the affected areas could meet in pub gardens, Education Minister Gillian Keegan said: "I'm sorry I can't clarify that.
"I don't know the answer to that question but I'm sure they can find out the answer to that question."
paging our resident covid sage 😉 @Tired
3 weeks ago you thought
wed still be below 100 admissions a day accross UK
although its leveling off a bit at the moment in england alone were at >250 a day
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1310983047316205568
this doesnt fill me with joy
although its leveling off a bit at the moment
In London. Take London hospital figures out, and we’re still rising at much the same rate.
[ waves from the North of England ]
71 deaths today, thats not good is it, at least 2 more weeks of that going up.
71 by date reported, 10 by date of death.
I guess that date-of-death number might go up a bit ?
wed still be below 100 admissions a day accross UK
We're never going to get rid of Covid19.
eskay
Full MemberEarlier, when asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if people in the affected areas could meet in pub gardens, Education Minister Gillian Keegan said: “I’m sorry I can’t clarify that.
TBH I'm really pissed off that people are taking the piss/making political points off that. She's the education minister not in a health, culture or justice role, and she's not in the affected areas. It's not her job, and saying "I don't know" is the right thing to do.
I mean, education is obviously a ****ing disaster this year so she's not doing her actual job, we should criticise her for that, not for not knowing stuff that's not her brief.
You’re right.
If the prime minister doesn’t even know what the rules are, why should she?
She’s only a government minister, after all. She can’t be expected to know government policy on the most pressing issue of the day and one which massively impacts her brief. Honestly... people want the moon on a stick, don’t they?
And if she’s education minister then I suppose you’d ask her the same obvious question you’d ask her boss, towering intellectual colossus Gavin Williamson...
WHAT THE * HAVE YOU *ING CLOWNS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING SINCE MARCH?!!!
You won’t get support for another indefinite lockdown, people are fed up already so it’ll be broken and broken quickly.
You won’t get any support for anything that remotely resembles the kind of measures brought in in March, because:
• Dominic Cummings
• Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Test and Trace chaos and a ‘World Beating’ system that is totally unfit for purpose
• Dominic Cummings
• The disappearing ‘World Beating’ App
• Dominic Cummings
• Care Home body count
• shameless Government corruption, handing out multi-million PPE contracts to their mates
• More Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Dido Hardings rewards for failure
• Highest death rate in Europe
• Even more Government incompetence
• Dominic Cummings
• Yet more Government incompetence
• Matt Hancock
• Complete and total Government ineptitude
• Gavin Williamson’s exam fiasco
• Gavin Williamson’s school reopening fiasco
• Gavin Williamson’s university reopening fiascoetc, etc…
Whilst I agree with the sentiment here, I think a big reason why you won't get compliance next time round is because we're constantly bombarded with news of how everyone else is flouting the rules. The vox pops on the news, pictures in the papers, phone ins on the radio are all about how there's youths hanging out in town centres, all sorts of people refusing to wear masks, "minorities" in each others houses etc'. All that bullsh*t. So why should everyone else bother? Guess that's the Dom effect palmed off onto the rest of the populous.
binners
Full MemberShe’s only a government minister, after all. She can’t be expected to know government policy on the most pressing issue of the day and one which massively impacts her brief.
How much do you think government policy on pub beer gardens impacts on education? I'm pretty sure it's "not at all" rather than "massively".
You’re right.
I'm glad you agree that Northwind is right.
Guess that’s the Dom effect palmed off onto the rest of the populous.
We certainly weren’t being deluged with images of people flouting the rules at the point in time that Dom decided to go for his road trip, refused to apologise, then had every single cabinet member come out and publicly defend his actions
I just can’t understand what changed after that
It’s inexplicable
Has anyone plotted a chart of the correlation between right-wing xenophobic populism of a country's government vs excess deaths per 100,000 yet?
Because, frankly, we are in bad company on the politics front as well as the excess covid deaths.
Bolsonaro and Trump as our fellow travellers, eh?
What a ****ing nightmare.
Yes, they all knew the rules intimately when Cummings didn't break them.
I think part of the point as well is that the rules are so bloody complicated not even Johnson knows them alone other government employees, plus they should know them because people (not just the press) expect them to know some of the most vital rules of modern times
How much do you think government policy on pub beer gardens impacts on education
It’s not specifically about pub beer gardens though, is it?
If you’re a member of a government that has just imposed a policy that has absolutely enormous implications on the lives of millions of people, with no notice and no consultation, then as a minister of that government you should, at the bare minimum, be able to explain what that policy is.
The fact that both she and the prime minister couldn’t do so sends a message, loud and clear, of laziness, arrogance, complacency and rank incompetence
You’re not explaining new regulations on the labelling on the salt content of ready meals here, the impact of these policy changes has huge implications for entire regions.
The fact that they can’t even be arsed to learn the detail of their own policies, that they impose by diktat on millions of the ‘little people’ tells me everything I need to know about these ****s
From the top down they’re making it up as they go along and just winging it
binners
Full MemberIt’s not specifically about pub beer gardens though, is it?
It was a question about pub beer gardens, so, yes?
They’re busy telling us that the rules are simple.
Well if they’re that simple then why can’t you, as a member of the government that just imposed them, explain them?
And seeing as she is a government minister and the new lockdown regulations just imposed are the biggest story of the day, then if you didn’t think you were going to be asked about it then you’re a dimwit
But then the chief dimwit didn’t bother to read his briefing notes either. As per usual
I just think that at the height of a global pandemic, with lives at stake, we should be expecting a higher level of competence than ‘winging it’ from government ministers.
Like I said: lazy, arrogant, complacent and incompetent.
If you think that’s acceptable, then good for you
I don’t
we’re constantly bombarded with news of how everyone else is flouting the rules.
Not just that, but a rule comes in, it doesnt work, theres no proof, someone elses country does it different. Then its clarified by an incompetent leader, who does a U turn on that and then cant remember which rules are currently in place.
So this is what we hear, does anyone think we should have any reason to believe in what happens next?
Knob head is hosting another television show tomorrow with the two scientists. Not sure if its satire or comedy tbh but please tune and post your review here.
Nah… Binners didn’t mention Boris, Raab or Gove; or even Helen chuffing Whately (idiot savant extraordinaire but without the savant bit)
Heartily disagree, that list took some effort.
Let's get Binners elected to the HoC.
If you think that’s acceptable, then good for you
It’s not acceptable. But they seem to be successfully getting more and people to accept that members of the government now do the absolute minimum with a minimal level of competence, if any. Remembering the name of your department is just about all we’ll be expecting of these people within a year.
What do you guys think of this hypothesis? Basically that masks reduce transmission and also viral load possibly leading to less sever symptoms?
Nicked from @JollyGreenGiant in another thread.👍
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913
It’s just that. Worth some research. But it’s little more than a hunch so far.
Just completely bonkers rules.
I think we would actually be doing the country a great service by ignoring their mad rules entirely.
EDIT: would be interesting to see the scientific evidence they think they are following.
TBH I’m really pissed off that people are taking the piss/making political points off that. She’s the education minister not in a health, culture or justice role, and she’s not in the affected areas. It’s not her job, and saying “I don’t know” is the right thing to do.
I mean, education is obviously a ****ing disaster this year so she’s not doing her actual job, we should criticise her for that, not for not knowing stuff that’s not her brief.
I do kind of get where you're coming from Northwind. But millions of people are saying - we don't know what the rules are. Just thinking that the messaging (and therefore the rules) could be a bit simpler. We shouldn't be expecting a Minister to be briefed before being confident in what the rules are. General public won't be.
Just completely bonkers rules.
If you can define any rationale or logic out of that load of old cobblers then you’re doing better than me.
I had to double check that was actually a government site and not the Daily Mash
You may go to a funeral with 27 people if at least one of them is called Dave, but not on Thursdays, where your Dave must be substituted for a Colin and two Steve’s, one of whom must own a cocker spaniel
You may go to a beer garden but only one next to a river, But the pub must have the word ‘and’ in its name. Groups can be no larger than 8, unless you all wear pink, in which case the limit is 200.
Well, if you stayed up late enough, you should now know what it is illegal for you to do today…
https://twitter.com/adamwagner1/status/1311087762028797958?s=21
No ordinary human can navigate these laws. It's basically a license to arrest anyone, anytime they fancy(*).
(*) You might be safe in a beer garden next to a river. We may all need to seek refuge in such a place, but I can't think of any pubs near me that meet this. Even the "Five miles from anywhere" isn't safe.
It's a real shame that necessary restrictions are being undermined by the confusing messaging and approach.
I think the government has got a tough job though. Some of the great changes of our time that have benefitted Boris are now working against him. The fragmentation that social media causes is great when you want to tell different "facts" to lots of people at the same time for a political campaign. Not so good when you need to get a consistent message to everyone to build a consensus.
20 years ago you could have sent a consistent message out that would hit most people through the evening news, main papers, top radio stations and billboards. When the message changed you could change it across all platforms at the same time.
If you swapped your smartphone with someone else you would get an entirely different set of COVID facts and therein lies the problem.
But millions of people are saying – we don’t know what the rules are
This includes our world class Track and Trace people too in my experience
Don’t feel sorry for them tomd… there is a tried and tested way to communicate the updated measures and their reasoning to everyone and get the message on all the broadcast and online media… they just refuse to do it. The daily briefings.
