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We’re doing them. Ordering for delivery is dead simple, and they fit through the letterbox. Two of us have to do them for school reasons, not sure we’d have been so on it otherwise. The system works well, but I’ve not seen any serious attempts to increase uptake so far.
But listening to Ministers / Johnson this isn’t the message they are selling. It’s been, and continues to be, the miracle cure.
I think the media have reported it as the miracle cure, ministers were certainly saying it reduced severity of infection and "may" reduce transmission, which it seems to do.
The kids do lateral flow tests twice a week, and MrsMC occasionally needs one for work, so as I have very little contact with anyone else I haven't tested yet and relied on the kids, which is possibly wrong.
So they are promoting the tests…
https://twitter.com/nhsuk/status/1397129107289280513?s=21
The idiotic and myopic replies to this Twitter advert actually make we sympathetic for the government for a change.
I visit my dad in a care home so have ordered a box of test kits. Very easy and we’re delivered in 2 days from ordering.
Coronavirus comparison of cases and deaths to rest of Europe. I thought I'd add Portugal to the list since this seems newsworthy
slight flattening of deaths with the eye of faith
and how is Portugal doing? Increases in cases have put it back up there with the European average from a lower level.
Looking at the first graph, I can see other countries being very worried about people travelling to/from the UK if our projection for cases carries on (or steepens) in coming weeks. The whole green/amber/red angst the press are currently obsessed with might end up being entirely irrelevant.
might end up being entirely irrelevant.
I think it already is. Travel decisions are based on cases not deaths or admissions. UK are increasing. For the geeky, it's a log-scale so the steepness is signalling growth rate. Note the steepness compared to the B.1.1.7 UK variant emergence from December. Let's hope that vaccination has the desired effect. Israel has no current resurgence of cases.
This graph is plotting cases per 100k in the North West until the end of June.
If cases keep increasing at the same rate as they have over the last week, then the North West will have a lot of cases by the end of June.
I have not forecast July as you get the idea...
We have to hope vaccination prevents this forecast becoming the reality.
Good news on hospital admissions in the North West though...
This will mean that the relationship between cases and deaths changes significantly.
September 2020 Wave - All age groups increased at similar times.
May 2021 Wave - Only the 18 to 65 age group increasing.
It's interesting though that case rates are leveling off or coming down in some areas of concern for example in Bolton or Kirklees.
Be interesting to know why and how.
A possible explaination is that the surge testing made them go very high early on and so the cases numbers now appear to be dropping or levelling off.
If you look at case numbers in Bolton by age group, on a moving seven day day average you get this slightly confusing picture.
My guess is a lot of children stopped going to school after they tested postive or their classmates tested positive, which subsequently reduced cases for those age groups and their parents.
If this is the explaination then the cases numbers might well increase again when children return to school .
P.S the above explaination is my best guess. Just trying to put an explaination to the data.
This article suggests it has occcured in two year groups at one school.
This school closed for a two week half term and is now due to reopen.
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/haslingden-high-school-reopening-date-20746834
May 2021 Wave – Only the 18 to 65 age group increasing.
Is that 'all' admissions, or confirmed COVID case admissions?
Is that ‘all’ admissions, or confirmed COVID case admissions?
confirmed COVID case admissions
I estimate that hospital admissions are about 2-4x lower than the rate predicted from past modelling of cases-admissions. That's an rough estimate of vaccine coverage x proportion vaccinated (with some adjustment for age of admissions). Since we have about 50% vaccinated and about 75% protection from admissions, this is not an unreasonable robust estimate that vaccines are protective against the delta variant.
Tired, I agree that the relationship between cases and admissions has definitely changed.
I think there are 2 factors driving this change.
1. Vaccination.
2. An increase in the proportion of cases in those under the age of 20. This may be due to the variant or due to increased testing of that age group or both.
The table below is for England. It shows that a higher proportion of positive cases are now coming from those under the age of 20.
I agree that vaccination protects against the delta variant. Not 100% protection, but good enough.
We need people to keep coming forward to get vaccinated to ensure we avoid another problematic wave amongst the unvaccinated.
If unvaccinated people were randomly distributed across the country it would not be an issue due to herd immunity. However in the real world there are areas of higher vaccination and areas of lower vaccination. It is areas with lower vaccine uptake that might create a problem for the NHS if we completely unlock on 21st June.
Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests.
Once a week for me (before basketball) or if seeing people knowing we can't socially distance like visiting my partners parents this weekend.
and apologies to joepud and all the others who would be affected – 4 weeks may be wiser. If the impact on deaths/NHS is tolerable, we may still be able to open up, even partially, with more and more getting vaccinated.
Cheers dude, im getting hopeful I have a feeling we will have an opening lite, basically masks but gatherings allowed. Seems mental I can't have 70 people at a wedding but they are going to half fill football stadiums for the euros.
If unvaccinated people were randomly distributed across the country it would not be an issue due to herd immunity. However in the real world there are areas of higher vaccination and areas of lower vaccination
I guess by this you mean mainly the unvaccinated susceptible people, ie: older populations (long covid etc. aside) and yes i agree, if infection gets into these populations then it can run riot quickly.
But we also have a bit of an oddity, in that herd immunity is supposed to work because the infected person has fewer / no-one to pass it on to, and consequently the infection doesn't spread. Without kids vaccinated, there's a web of transmission pathways right across the country - passed on through schools, then mixing schools via kids sports clubs and scouts and birthday parties and whatever else, so I'm not sure how well herd immunity will work in that case.
I reckon universities managed herd immunity in their populations last year!!
Lord knows what a load of students shut in their accommodation for months on end have managed to achieve herd immunity against!
“ I reckon “ has lost us a lot of lives, time, money, businesses, jobs, relationships, health and energy since February 2020.
Interesting / informative thread as ever.
My daughter (just 20) has been vaccinated at Birmingham Uni. There was a 5 day stint by a van in the main library car park. No booking, just turn up with ID. The take up was huge. Big queues even early on (when students are generally in bed!). She waited 90 mins for her first jab.
Her second one is due in Aug, but the nurse said they are trying to get them a second one while she's still at Uni. So within 3 weeks. Pretty amazing stuff either way.
My lad (22) was a bit cheesed off by this as he's kind of front line (runs the baby room at the local nursery). So he rang 119 and they booked him a jab as well!
Getting my 'kids' vaccinated feels like a really good thing. I know it's a bit selfish but you can't stop being a parent even when they're this age.
That sounds properly organised!
It was. Adverts plastered all over social media. UoB Social Media was pretty much 100% on it. Signs up on campus. And - like most peoples experiences - in and out of the van in less than three minutes. Didn't ask they to sit down and wait (like for mine), just punted them back outside 😉
I was heartened to hear a) how all the students were dragging their hungover mates etc to get it done and b) how well the Uni/local NHS organised it. Seems to be going on on a lot of large city campus's. Has to be a good thing.
My lad turns 18 in July. Hoping he gets at least one jab in before he goes to uni.
My understanding (and it's no more than that, but my job involves working with uni's every day) is there is a real desire from both the institutions and the DfE is to get a high level of vaccination to ALL students attending/returning this Sept.
One of the issues is the number of (potentially non vaccinated) international students who will be on a twice testing week protocol, but that's going to be hard to enforce (esp self isolation). So the mitigation is to try and get the UK based students protected and hopefully lower the transmission rate as well.
There is definitely tension between the DfE and the Uni's about who is responsible / pays for this. A lot of Uni's are feeling pretty bruised after having to build their own testing sites/processes at short notice early this year.
Having said all that, there is a strong desire to return to a 'normal' experience. I don't expect that'll see full lecture theatres tho until at least next year.
There is definitely tension between the DfE and the Uni’s about who is responsible / pays for this. A lot of Uni’s are feeling pretty bruised after having to build their own testing sites/processes at short notice early this year.
My business has experienced really significant extra costs, restrictions on our work etc etc. Seeing how much money and reserves the Uni's are sat on, they need to just include cost of vaccination and testing to all students next year IMO.
I struggle to feel any sympathy for universities the way they handled the whole shit show last year.
Also interesting to see some emergence of cases in Highlands, Perth & Kinross, Angus & Fife. Related to more of us (myself included) travelling there more? Or just co-incidence...
Interesting to also note that we are seeing a good few schools scattered around the country closing for a week / relief of half term in England as there seems to be either more cases or testing at a younger age is finding more cases.
Seeing how much money and reserves the Uni’s are sat on
feel any sympathy for universities the way they handled the whole shit show last year
I don't want to derail the thread, but not all uni's are sat on big reserves, and while some well publicised examples have been extremely poor, there has also been some outstanding work behind the scenes. My own view is Uni's are really bad at change esp quick change and the Govt's lack of coherent policy has definitely put them on the back foot.
Anyway, I'll leave it there as not really appropriate for this thread.
(potentially non vaccinated) international students
Overseas visitors to England, including anyone living in the UK without permission, will not be charged for:
- testing for coronavirus (even if the test shows you do not have coronavirus)
- treatment for coronavirus – including for a related problem that affects some children called multisystem inflammatory syndrome
- vaccination against coronavirus
So overseas students should be able to get vaccinated too
^^ is a good, sensible thing. The issue - as I've heard it and again it's 2nd hand and I'm no expert - is if intl'l students will choose to get vaccinated. And how it'll work/who pays for setting it up etc.
Maybe the take up from UK students will move some of this thinking/modelling on.
Anyway, I’ll leave it there as not really appropriate for this thread.
Agreed, but only going on my own experience as a part timer, the FTers at my uni were left high and dry.
@Alex - i was probably being harsh. I agree that there has been some brilliant work, but there is also some really cr*p reactions going on.
I note that our son at Glasgow College (half the funding pot) has had far more support and a much more responsive and creative organisation than our son at Heriott Watt (much more funding).
I do think on a business and social level, if I were in a Uni leadership, I would be planning now for a mass vaccination of all students in September, no matter the cost, as second year like this one benefits neither students or Uni, and I would expect cost a *lot* more.
I do think on a business and social level, if I were in a Uni leadership, I would be planning now for a mass vaccination of all students in September, no matter the cost, as second year like this one benefits neither students or Uni, and I would expect cost a *lot* more
Agree 100% and that would seem to be the general view. It's just a bit of a stand off who pays. I expect the Uni's will crack first 😉
How was the Oxford / Astra Zeneca vaccine engineered? I've tried googling it but not had any luck. Did they use CRISPR or some other technique?
$99 billion to vaccinate the world
£37 billion ($52 billion) for Track and Trace
One looks really good value, the other not so much...
Also interesting to see some emergence of cases in Highlands,
Fort William cluster (70 or so cases) was all linked to a pub showing a football match.
Aviemore cluster was linked to two chefs who went to Glasgow for a football match.
One looks really good value, the other not so much…
Not wanting to appear supportive of the shambolic T&T but I believe part of the headline figure covers the cost of testing as well?
Not wanting to appear supportive of the shambolic T&T but I believe part of the headline figure covers the cost of testing as well?
Believe so, it's not just £37b for a badly run call centre.
So looking likely we are gonna get this bloody 2 week delay.. maybe more like 4. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-uk-lockdown-delay-fortnight-b1861459.html. Can't help but feel if more people got the jab we might not be in this position. Job lot sale on wedding wine coming soon.
Sorry for the language, but... what the **** is going on, and what are people supposed to be doing...!?
Greater Manchester now under "stricter guidelines", and people being asked to "curb their behaviour"... how exactly are people supposed to respond? My daughter is booking a train journey for tomorrow (to be home for a day for her mum's birthday)... is that advised against? Anyone...?
Can’t help but feel if more people got the jab we might not be in this position.
Agreed... but arms are being presented faster than jabs are being offered. We're not quite where we need to be yet, but it's not down to "hesitancy"... people are in the main booking their slots as soon as they allowed to.
Greater Manchester now under “stricter guidelines”, and people being asked to “curb their behaviour”… how exactly are people supposed to respond? My daughter is booking a train journey for tomorrow (to be home for a day for her mum’s birthday)… is that advised against? Anyone…?
It speaks to the lack of direct and distinct instructions as per usual. Of course, she should wear a mask, distance and use sanitiser a regular points throughout her journey. The sentimental reason for travelling aside, is she coming from a D variant hotspot, and therefore should she re-consider? Yet, that’s her moral judgement rather than clear government guidance.
Well, that answers my question with more questions. I'm not sure her bit of Greater Manchester has a higher density of the delta variant than we do here in Calderdale. How do I find out? Where do I look to find out what people are being asked/advised to do?
I’m not sure her bit of Greater Manchester has a higher density of the delta variant than we do here in Calderdale. How do I find out? Where do I look to find out what people are being asked/advised to do?
Does it matter? Surely it just makes sense to minimise the risk of transmission regardless? If there was actually some control over movement that would be obvious and publicised.
Does it matter?
Someone else said it should inform the decision.
Surely it just makes sense to minimise the risk of transmission regardless?
Is that we're we are at? Minimising risk of transmission "regardless"?
If there was actually some control over movement that would be obvious and publicised.
If you say so.
My daughter is booking a train journey for tomorrow (to be home for a day for her mum’s birthday)… is that advised against? Anyone…?
she could take one of the free lateral flow tests before she travels, that sounds like a pragmatic thing to do.
football match.
A running theme. hmmm.
Sorry for the language, but… what the **** is going on, and what are people supposed to be doing…!?
Greater Manchester now under “stricter guidelines”, and people being asked to “curb their behaviour”… how exactly are people supposed to respond? My daughter is booking a train journey for tomorrow (to be home for a day for her mum’s birthday)… is that advised against? Anyone…?
Er, do as you wish. It's only "non-essential travel in/out of the area" which is guidance only.
You know what the crack is as this was in the news not so long ago.
she could take one of the free lateral flow tests before she travels
She's been doing two tests a week anyway, she'll be doing one tonight.
You know what the crack is as this was in the news not so long ago.
This is new news today for her area.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1402222896718749699?s=20
No, this is new news today.
The guidance update is new for Manchester/Lancashire but it's the same as what happened not so long ago for first 6 other areas. Quite clearly an avid news follower you know what the deal is.
Sorry for my edit.
Quite clearly an avid news follower you know what the deal is.
I have no idea what the deal is, but yes, I remember the confusion surrounding the very quiet announcement as regards travel in some other areas... but still don't know what is expected of people in those areas. Is it clear to you?
Is it clear to you?
Yes
Greater Manchester now under “stricter guidelines”.
this is my prediction for the 21st they'll open up as planned but issue some waffle about maintaining social distancing and mask wearing even though it won't be mandatory.
So looking likely we are gonna get this bloody 2 week delay.. maybe more like 4. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-uk-lockdown-delay-fortnight-b1861459.html. Can’t help but feel if more people got the jab we might not be in this position. Job lot sale on wedding wine coming soon.
Here in Wales, we are a little ahead of England on the vaccine roll out. We've been offering the Jab to anyone over 18 for a while and are well on track to have every Adult who wants it, 'fully vaccinated' by September (in time for a possible 3rd jab in Oct, at least for some).
We've gone 13 days without a Covid death and we have the lowest number of Covid patients in Hospital at any time since the pandemic started. Numbers remain steady, even as 'Delta' starts to take over from 'Alpha'
Obviously, compared to the darkest of days only a few months ago, this is all amazing news, and with our much smaller population and slightly quicker vaccine roll out, it's a good indication that the rest of the UK soon will be able to have low numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths, thanks to the vaccines. No, not everyone is having it, but the numbers are still much, much higher than they ever hoped for prior to the start of the roll-out.
But as far as restrictions go in Wales at least, we seem to have gone as far as we are going to go which worries me.
We officially left Alert level 2 yesterday, to a new level called "restrictions remain in place". Social Distancing is still required, as are masks and there are still limits on in-home groups, although outdoors now you can meet up to 29 another people, but you still need to distance. Night Clubs etc remain closed.
They're currently 'revising' level 1, but prior to this, it was broadly the same as we have now, if you're getting married, in Wales at least, it's a maximum of 30 guests outdoors for the foreseeable.
The bit that worries me, our FM isn't planning to remove all restrictions in June, or July, or even August, in fact he doesn't think Social Distancing will end until at least the end of 2021, 3 months after we've all been vaccinated, it's hard to see what will change between Sept and December, maybe he wants to keep the R number below 1 until it fizzles out in Wales, which doesn't seem possible with Delta.
At some point, someone is going to have to make a difficult decision, to remove restrictions and let 'nature take it's course'. Even with 80%+ of Adults vaccinated, it's still going to transmit and find those who haven't been vaccinated, or those who it doesn't offer enough protection to stop them getting ill.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, it doesn't matter if it's the 21st of June, the 5th of July or the 19th, I really wouldn't want to be unvaccinated when restrictions end in England.
We're in Stockport and have been advised to take regular tests now.
Hubby visited the testing centre (very near to where we live). While there one of the organisers said that some people are driving up with symptoms, taking the test, then leaving to go shopping in the precinct adjoined. These people are told to go home and wait for their results, but no, some won't listen. You couldn't make this up.
I agree with most of that P-Jay, I can only assume that there is a nervousness around the link between cases and hospitalisations, the link it would seem is definitely broken in the main, and how long this continues (in terms of length of eficacy of the vaccinations)
No government wants to be accused of opening up too early.
maybe he wants to keep the R number below 1 until it fizzles out in Wales
Unless they build that wall and lock the gate, that won't ever happen because of the filthy English scum.
It’s only “non-essential travel in/out of the area” which is guidance only.
Yeah we're back to this sort of nonsense from Johnson "Sneak up, Shout at the Virus, Run Away.." or was it Hands Face Space, I can never remember
No government wants to be accused of opening up too early.
You say that, and yet.....
I know we like to knock it, but hands, face, space is the best and clearest advice we've had all the way through this, and if all the snuffly bastards at work remember it, next winter may be less unpleasant with the usual bugs
So... "carry on with the plans you have made" is the advice from the leader of Manchester City Council. And that "the rules aren't different from anywhere else in the country". There are "no restrictions that apply here that don't apply everywhere else in England". So that's clear.
You couldn’t make this up.
Just overheard a call in reception. Lateral flow positive. Rings gp surgery to ask what to do. Answer arrange PCR, isolate….”But they take 2 days, can’t I go to work tonight?”
Over a year and people still don’t get it.
It is clear... that it is 'guidance'.
And you can choose to be guided by it or not, like '5 portions of fruit/veg per day'.
But as far as restrictions go in Wales at least, we seem to have gone as far as we are going to go which worries me.
I don't see us getting any more freedoms for a good few weeks either. I understand the reluctance to though as:
Just overheard a call in reception. Lateral flow positive. Rings gp surgery to ask what to do. Answer arrange PCR, isolate….”But they take 2 days, can’t I go to work tonight?”
Over a year and people still don’t get it.
this and:
While there one of the organisers said that some people are driving up with symptoms, taking the test, then leaving to go shopping in the precinct adjoined. These people are told to go home and wait for their results, but no, some won’t listen.
this are just too common right now for it to quickly turn back in the wrong direction. Add in that if/when they reduce the rules down it'll basically open it up to be seen as fully normal and a free-for-all. This is down to the rhetoric coming out of Westminster and the Press with their 'Freedom Day' headlines. The WAG are desperately trying to avoid being the region that causes another lockdown to happen, Scotland are doing similar. My hunch is that once England lifts all restrictions and has gone a solid 2-3 weeks with no red flags we will follow suit. It all boils down o the public really not having the stomach for another lockdown of any variety once they've had a taste of 'normality'.
Andy Burnham on the radio was calling for vaccine supplies to be prioritised to the NW where the D-variant is spreading fastest.
Am I missing something, but even if there was an effort to up the vaccinations / start vaxxing 18+, that's not worth doing unless they also control the spread by continued control measures? The vaxxines don't provide immediate protection, need a second dose to be properly effective to their fullest extent, and so that's going to be weeks, even months by the time the 2V's are done in which time control has to be applied by other measures.
Meanwhile other regions where it hasn't yet taken full hold need continued supply to continue vaccinating the more at risk to keep ahead of the infection, not once it arrives (which I'm sure it will) - and also keep control measures to prevent it arriving too fast and too hard.
What am i missing, he's a smart man with good advisors? Or is it just posturing to show how he's supporting his area?
Vaccinating the young is a long game plan, like you say, because it will take ~2 months minimum plus a few weks after the second jab (so nearer ~3 months) to get as protected as they can be against Delta.
Maybe the hope is by pushing the vaccinating of the young, it will get them to respect social distance boundaries, given how transmittable Delta is even compared to Kent Alpha.
There needs to be better rule enforcement and compliance by those who are not double jabbed +2 weeks. Maybe far less youngsters will end up in hospital or die as a result of Delta, but just letting Delta rip through the young is tempting the fate of another "super mutation" being created, that may further breach the already vaccinated.
When the Moray cluster popped up in Scotland they were held back with new "freedom" but there was also a push to vaccinate the young where the transmission was actually happening. Moray now has one of the lowest infection rates in the country.
What am i missing, he’s a smart man with good advisors?
He's a weathervane politician... he's saying what he's worked out his voters want to hear.
the disaster fappers will be here shortly…you can guess who.
A year on and I’m still non the wiser as to who they are?
My sister has managed to become infected by the virus, caught via my nephew, which was from one of the friends of his GF. They're all at uni and socializing and its probably through that that the virus has been passed around. Sis has had both vaccinations and is thus far reporting no serious effects, neither is the my nephew. Awaiting results on the brother in law and 2nd nephew, but its likely they've all got it.
this is actually the 2nd time theres been an infection in No1 Nephews group. Spread by the kids et all yet again, it's clear they're driving the infections and I'd say must be vaccinated along with all other age groups as a matter of importance. School, College and Uni are the ones in socializing together, everyone else is the ones taking precautions.
Such conflicting advice in the Lancashire and Greater Manchester areas:
Minimise travel, then a spokesperson pops up and says we don't have to cancel trips or parties.
Stay outdoors. Yet we are 'allowed' to continue indoor dance classes, gym work outs etc.
MP says this morning on breakfast news interview - "a degree of personal responsibility is needed". What he means is common sense. However we seem to be in short supply of that since semi opening up in May.
Are the UK any closer to having any of the vaccines passed as safe for the kids?
I think I recall seeing 12+ had been cleared recently, but the sooner we can get primary and junior school kids passed the better, it would be great to get them double-dosed before the start of the next academic year.
Pfizer is passed as safe for 12-15 year olds
The JVCI hasn't authorised its use yet - I suspect that'll happen after all 18+ have been vaccinated.
There needs to be better rule enforcement and compliance by those who are not double jabbed +2 weeks.
This sounds a bit big brother / 2 tier society. Jabbed or not everyone needs to be treated the same.
So… “carry on with the plans you have made” is the advice from the leader of Manchester City Council. And that “the rules aren’t different from anywhere else in the country”. There are “no restrictions that apply here that don’t apply everywhere else in England”. So that’s clear.
The government has already had a couple of goes (at least) at relying on 'good old British common sense', with unfortunate results. It's about time they were forced to be the ones taking unpopular political decisions rather than shifting the burden onto the public and local politicians.
While 'do what you want' isn't entirely the best advice for the circumstances, it's the correct one at this point, because the government has to accept that if it wants to substantially restrict behaviour, it has to be the one imposing firm rules and providing the tools to enforce them, rather than throwing out woolly guidance and saying 'we'd rather you didn't do x'.
Jabbed or not everyone needs to be treated the same.
That's exactly the approach that has been taken in the UK so far. We have to accept that it limits opportunities for all though. Arguably an Israeli style green card over the last few months would have meant fewer restrictions for everyone by now, including the unvaccinated.