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Hancock highlighting yesterday that some folk were in hospital that were eligible for vaccine but hadn't taken up the offer sounds to me like a convenient scapegoat.
Personally speaking. If you're not in the 1-9 priority vaccine group and have a date for your second dose, stick to that, and don't call your GP
Noted, thanks Nickc
(can you send that to me in writing via a third party text provider, just to make it official, like 😉 )
The government did the wrong thing when they extended it to 12 weeks, they had no idea if it would work, we were lucky and it appears the extended time between jabs improves long term protection (could have easily gone the other way).
The government did something for which there was no trial data at that time, as subsequent data has shown they clearly did the right thing. This is hardly surprisingly because the decision was based on advice from scientists who used their experience and knowledge of how vaccines work to make a judgement call on what was likely to be the most effective strategy in a pandemic - and as a result many lives were saved.
Sorry, flippant, I hear some right stories from our patients about the national vaccine centers (and from colleagues roped in to man them) . FWIW i think they’re in an unenviable position, and coping as best they can
NickC. Im not quite sure what you are insinuating?
Ive worked in GP led, Pharmacy & mass vaccination sites as a non-HCP vaccinator. I see no reason for any particular type to look down their noses at any other?
to make a judgement call on
It was a brilliant punt. Absolutely has saved lives. Did get lucky. Now we have enough data not only to show that they guessed (an informed intelligent guess) correctly, but that they should be sticking to it really. The change this week looks like PR, or desperately seeking to do something in the face of new outbreaks that should have been prevented (and should be contained/stopped using all the measures we now know work, not just speeding up the vaccine rollout).
I see no reason for any particular type to look down their noses at any other?
Wasn't trying to, just the usual gossip I'm sure.
It wasn't really a punt in the same way following professional or expert advice is rarely described as taking a punt. What was so commendable was the JVCI realised that the precautionary principle typically used for avoiding risks also means that you miss out on benefits, whilst completely obvious, it takes a quality mind to have the confidence to ditch ingrained processes. Likewise the benefits of bringing forwarded the second vaccines are known albeit considerably less significant. That said being in a place where you are weighing up a slight increase in effectiveness of protection for the most vulnerable against significant protection for those who aren't particularly vulnerable is a quality problem to have.
Sanity check please - a (non English speaking) friend wants to understand this article. I speak reasonably servicable Engish but do not understand anything remotely academic...
The gist is, I guess, the RRR of 67% for the AZ vaccine means that's the risk reduction if you were to catch the virus.
The ARR of 1.2% for AZ is that reduction, with your overall chance of catching the virus factored in. Is that right? Ta!
Has anyone heard anything about the Novavax vaccine? I thought its data package had been submitted to the MHRA during April. Bearing in mind how quickly they managed to process and approve the AZ and Pfizer vaccines I'm surprised we haven't heard something by now. Would be a useful for have in our vaccine arsenal as its made in the UK
Our Novavax doses don’t start arriving ‘till the Autumn, IIRC.
Prof Jason Leitch (National clinical director of the Scottish Gov) says: He would prefer it if all 'green light' countries were put on to an 'amber light'.
He's in charge of public health in Scotland and knows his stuff.
Prof Jason Leitch (National clinical director of the Scottish Gov) says: He would prefer it if all ‘green light’ countries were put on to an ‘amber light’.
Given that the government have said they don't want people going to Amber countries, why don't we make them red?
How ****ing hard is it to ban foreign holidays - accepting people may have genuine work and family reasons to travel
If I were the EU, I'd shut the door myself. Seeding the Indian variant more widely across the continent will prolong their wave.
Had my 2nd dose. Just looking at the NHS website.
'The 1st dose of the COVID-19 vaccine should give you good protection from coronavirus from 3 or 4 weeks after you've had it. But you need to have the 2 doses of the vaccine to give you longer lasting protection.'
So am I fully protected now, the day after the 2nd dose? It's just extending the protection?
How **** hard is it to ban foreign holidays – accepting people may have genuine work and family reasons to travel
Seemed pretty easy just a week or so ago.
France returned to a sort of normality today except that it's normal + 50%. Queues outside the shops, no places left on the cafe terraces, people sitting around all over the place. It's all very festive and there's a reassuringly good breeze. We'll see how the numbers go from here.
So am I fully protected now, the day after the 2nd dose? It’s just extending the protection?
No because it takes time for your immune system to respond. Seven to 14 days is the figure that gets quoted most for full protection after the second jab.
Almost 3k cases today, granted it was going to happen once we started to let people do stuff. Really hope this isn't the start of a trend.
Just had my second dose. Slight problem in that the appointment they'd sent me by text wasn't on the system at the GP surgery, but they found a spare needle of something and stuck it in my arm to hurry me out the door.
Should make the conversation about returning to the office a bit easier to deal with next week.
The booking system really is a mess.
Jab 1:
Turn 50 but can’t book, computer/person on phone/surgery all say no.
Finally over a week later get jabbed after the big Handcock announcement “all over 50’s offered a jab”
Week later get a letter from NHS then a text from surgery (vaccine hub) inviting me to have first jab?!?
Jab 2: Policy change to 8 weeks so cancelled the 12 week one given to me at hospital (guys) on NHS website, rebook at local surgery hub for 8 weeks after a text from them inviting me to book. (Not on NHS main website)
Now have text from NHS saying 12 week appointment is cancelled (the one I cancelled already) due to “vaccine supply considerations” and have been rebooked at Guys hospital for 8 weeks?!
Log in to NHS to see where it has my jab booked?
“You need to book your second vaccination”
WTF? Now I have no idea if I have 1, 2 or no appointments booked?
I know it’s a huge logistical/IT thing but surely by now they should have this sorted.
It’s too early for 17tb to have any impact yet. Beware a single days data - the rolling 7 day is still down.
At all the centres I’ve worked at we are quite flexible with bookings. If you rocked up when you expected with some form of booking evidence we would jab you as long as we were using the right vaccine that day.
The 2 appointments are 2 hours apart on the same day so i’ll Turn up at local surgery 3 min walk away and if they turn me away I have time to hop on a train to St Thomas’s where i’m sure they will fit me in at one of the 3 vaccine centres on site.
So am I fully protected now, the day after the 2nd dose? It’s just extending the protection?
No because it takes time for your immune system to respond. Seven to 14 days is the figure that gets quoted most for full protection after the second jab.
But even then I think you're "extending" protection rather than providing permanent protection (like flu).
France returned to a sort of normality today except that it’s normal + 50%. Queues outside the shops, no places left on the cafe terraces, people sitting around all over the place. It’s all very festive and there’s a reassuringly good breeze. We’ll see how the numbers go from here
Happened here in Spain on 9th May so I imagine an uptick in cases will be seen in the next week. 33% of the province vaccinated with at least one dose as of today, 15% with two doses.
Seven to 14 days is the figure that gets quoted most for full protection after the second jab.
Ta. Wife is keen to start teaching her music kids face to face, she's higher risk (but not in the group that shielded) so working out best time she can start. Prob give it a couple of weeks.
I liken the vaccine to school. The first jab like lessons. Pretty effective & puts the info into short term memory.
The second jab is revision, enhances your learning & transfers to long term memory.
You might still need to refresh your learning in the future though - that’s next years booster.
Almost 3k cases today, granted it was going to happen once we started to let people do stuff. Really hope this isn’t the start of a trend.
Erm, Indian Variant or not there was an acceptance cases would increase with opening, its the impact to hospitalizations that's the key measure.
But even then I think you’re “extending” protection rather than providing permanent protection (like flu).
Yep. I meant 'full' in the sense of it being the maximum level of protection afforded by the vaccine rather than it being a permanent, 100% defence against the virus.
Erm, Indian Variant or not there was an acceptance cases would increase with opening, its the impact to hospitalizations that’s the key measure.
Yep, cases will rise as things unlock, as will hospitalisation and deaths, the indicator of success will be whether hospitalisation and deaths stay below 'acceptable' levels, whatever the definition of acceptable is.
Expect to see a concerted media campaign attempting to move the focus away from cases to hospitalisation and deaths soon.
I think the expectation is that infections will definitely rise, but the previously seen pathway from those infections through to hospitalisations and deaths will not commensurately follow.
If you generally spell 'expectation' with an h-o-p-e.
Real world testing of how transmissible the virus is outside:
Given the age profiles very few are vaccinated and locally the Kent varriant is at 95% or so.
Interesting on the inflexion points where the restrictions were eased; as others have said cases will increase as we open up.
So why don't we stay locked down? Good question.
Past history has suggested that as sure as night follows day, cases lead to hospitalizations, lead to deaths, with a fairly predictable ratio and timescale as well.
But those links have uncoupled. Why? Vaccination, mainly, plus acquired immunity. Yes, there will still be deaths but the ratio will be greatly reduced. The numbers show this. That's how we can continue to unlock
Unless.....a variant escapes.
It's a page turner, for sure.
@ed
that links takes to a photo story, no article I can find from it. What's the data, I can't tell from your comment whether it has or hasn't transmitted under those conditions?
Unless…..a variant escapes.
Yes of course but less about it escaping more about its ability to avoid the effect of the vaccines. It's starting to be the case that they are recognising the vaccines are as effective against the India strain as other strains to date, although as yet not for certain.
If that proves to be the case, I suspect continued unlocking with surge testing and possible local interventions will prevail rather than a national reversal.
At this point, a variant could be very damaging even if the vaccines are effective against it. If, for example, it is more damaging and/or transmissible to those so far unvaccinated or only recently vaccinated. Timing of measures to reduce transmission really matters. Again.
@kryton
No, that's not completely right.
Transmissability is of substantial importance in an exponential spreading virus. It's a numbers game, if it doubles or trebles quickly (the grains of rice on a chessboard example), even if mortality is at a similar level (and vaccines are not perfect at controlling mortality; even if they continue to work against the new variants there will still be a proportion of deaths) then a very large number infected x mortality is still a large number of deaths.
High transmissability / lower mortality - is in general how viruses evolve; to survive and thrive they need to reproduce and if they kill hosts before they can pass it on they don't thrive. Hopefully eventually the CV19 mutates to be 'common cold' like - we get it every year and it makes you grotty for 2 days but it's sorted with Lemsip.
High transmissability / high mortality - then we're screwed! Stock up on bog roll and take to the bunkers!
Ok, thanks for that TOJV.
Not withstanding - and I wasn't clear - lets not forget that a Science vs Economy battle or balance happening here. Whilst on a scientific basis your post would tell us we've maximum interest in suppressing the virus, our politicians are juggling that with economic impact.
Hence I wrote:
If that proves to be the case, I suspect continued unlocking with surge testing and possible local interventions will prevail rather than a national reversal.
I am of course not an expert in these matter in the slightest, that just my thoughts.
Message on the NHS website about rebooking 2nd vaccinations has changed - looks like most will be staying as is rather than brought forward, which is sensible
We'll be contacting some people in high-risk groups directly to offer earlier appointments for their 2nd dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Science vs Economy battle
No, it isn’t a battle. Ignoring the first increases damages to the second.
Found this article quite interesting on crude use of PCR vs. antigen tests, variants, training your immune response etc.
I've seen some info regarging second doses and they are saying that the vaccine works better with dose 2 more toward 12 weeks after the first, rather than the minimum 4 week gap, so theres probably no point trying to re-book unless your dose 2 is more than 12 weeks after the first.
morecash
Just had my second dose. Slight problem in that the appointment they’d sent me by text wasn’t on the system at the GP surgery,
Well how strange... the "GPSurgery" sent you a text they have no record of... who'd a thought it. Almost like they didn't actually send it and no-one is actually checking if people have specific requirements!
but they found a spare needle of something and stuck it in my arm to hurry me out the door. Should make the conversation about returning to the office a bit easier to deal with next week.
Assuming you don't have a possible medical requirement your GP needs to check before saying which vaccine is most suitable
MrSmith
The booking system really is a mess.
Yeah almost like they spent a whole year making sure they had to use a single service provider .. did nothing until the last minute (cos who'd have thought they'd need to coordinate) and then made sure NHS procurement had only a single supplier to choose from...
So it doesn't matter how badly the appointments are handled as there is no-one else on the procurement list...
Science vs Economy battle
No, it isn’t a battle. Ignoring the first increases damages to the second.
Kelvin please, I said "Battle or Balance". Lets not have a repeat of yesterday over my vocabulary especially by using selective quoting.
I agree with your point, and TOJV's but we shouldn't pretend that our government are not trying to balance Science vs Economy.
Okay, it isn't a "balance" of "science vs economy" either. Ignoring the scientists has cost this country billions. We have suffered longer lock downs, and suffered greater economic damage, because.... timing. The government keeps making the "right moves", but only after the damage is already underway, and can't be reversed quickly. They ignore the biggest lesson that scientists have tried so damn hard to teach them... that the potential for exponential growth in infections, with this virus, means you have to act quickly on the scientific advice, or you pay, and pay and pay.
Listening to a Virologist on Radio five yesterday, they came up with an interesting fact/point in that when viruses mutate, the virus can mutate to the point where they become ineffective so fingers crossed...
The government keeps making the “right moves”, but only after the damage is already underway, and can’t be reversed quickly.
I predicted ^ exactly this back in March/April last year, ie predicting a pattern following the first (botched, delayed, semi-) ‘lockdown’ along with the mixed messages. Which lead me then to the conclusion that their confused/confusing/conflict-creating policies came either via ineptitude or by design.
If by design, then what was/is their motive?
Then again, I have friends and family who are convinced that Johnson & Co have been ‘too draconian’, ‘sheeplike’, and that it’s ‘just the flu’.
I preferred the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Everything after 2001 can sod off back to Shitsville, please.
Listening to a Virologist on Radio five yesterday, they came up with an interesting fact/point in that when viruses mutate, the virus can mutate to the point where they become ineffective so fingers crossed…
I think thats the hope, that it will mutate to a point where it's virulence will reduce enough that it wil fade into the general background noise of regular colds.
kelvin
No, it isn’t a battle. Ignoring the first increases damages to the second.
In the real world but we aren't dealing with the real world but a PM who's rather see bodies piled high in their thousands and contracts for "mates"
The real "balance" is "popularity vs all other concerns".
And that is ultimately "our" fault as voters.
p7eaven
If by design, then what was/is their motive?
Ultimately to keep these happy
Then again, I have friends and family who are convinced that Johnson & Co have been ‘too draconian’, ‘sheeplike’, and that it’s ‘just the flu’.
There is the delay between increased infections and deaths... which i guess you could say is being played like a futures market... and then once there is no other course of action (due to inaction) they take the only one left and shove a contract to a mate.
I suppose its ironic that the draconian measures are a result of inaction...
I suppose its ironic that the draconian measures are a result of inaction…
It's depressing that, after all that's happened during this pandemic, that far too many people still can't see this.
Not read this yet… could just be fluff… could be a good steer… you decide…
https://twitter.com/emilythornberry/status/1395317066098528257?s=21
I literally cannot do the home test because I keep gagging badly when I try to touch the back of my throat, at the moment I just shove it up my nostril only but am sure that wouldn't pick up the old virus. I ask my wife to help but its no better, also can't see any tonsils but I know I haven't had them removed.
Any tips on how to stop myself gagging? Would the test pick up the virus if used up the nostril only?
Thanks
Would the test pick up the virus if used up the nostril only?
Yeah, but you have to really shove it up there and have a good root around. It's just as uncomfortable as shoving it down your throat TBH You pretty much have to decide whether to have a sneezing fit, or a gag. I've done a LFT twice a week since January now, and I'm very done with it now.
Found this article quite interesting on crude use of PCR vs. antigen tests, variants, training your immune response etc.
Thanks for posting this dude. I needed that dose of covid positivity after yesterday
I suppose its ironic that the draconian measures are a result of inaction…
It’s depressing that, after all that’s happened during this pandemic, that far too many people still can’t see this.
Very much this.
You'd think the opposition would be all over it.
They were at the end of last year, and the very start of this year. Arguably no one would be listening if they were focussing on it right now.
That “10 point plan” I posted up there is very good, and very Biden, which given the need for international action on the points made seems a wise move.
Any tips on how to stop myself gagging?
I find saying "aaaahhhhh" helps quite a bit. I have a sensitive gag reflex too and have had a couple of close calls when swabbing.
Edit: "ahhhh" not "ARGH!". Think doctor with lollipop stick style "ahhh".
I suppose its ironic that the draconian measures are a result of inaction…
It’s depressing that, after all that’s happened during this pandemic, that far too many people still can’t see this.
True but it's even more depressing that people are dying because of it.
You’d think the opposition would be all over it.
There is no point .. either because they want to save lives or just for politics
Saving lives they have no say .. not the normal opposition no say where some rebels may support a vote but the emergency measures no say where cabinet don't even inform parliament. I'm sure this is familiar to Boris based on his only qualification... having skipped the dictatorship of Sulla and Marius he jumped straight into the triumvirate.
Politically only there is no mileage in opposing what the cabinet finally do get round to doing.
Politically only there is no mileage in opposing what the cabinet finally do get round to doing.
I'm not asking them to oppose it, I'm asking hem to loudly and publicly call for it when it first needs doing, like Starmer tried to do in October when Boris ignored the scientific advice, or loudly and publicly hold them to account when they fail to do so, pointing out the extra length, severity and damage (including lives) that their inaction has caused
It will be interesting to see what happens to hospital admissions in Bolton in the next couple of weeks.
In theory the historic relationship between cases and hospital admissions will not occur in this wave due to vaccination. Not off to a good start though...
In theory the historic relationship between cases and hospital admissions will not occur in this wave due to vaccination. Not off to a good start though…
Can't see what you were trying to share sadly?
Odd, I can see it
Not off to a good start though…
Bolton and Blackburn are not typical of the UK as a whole. The spikes are occurring in very specific areas with low vaccine take up and underlying deprivation, health and cultural issues. Many parts of Bolton for example are doing as well as the rest of the country. There was an article on the BBC last week (which i now can't find) that had maps of the vaccine uptake and case rate, the 2 correlated and was confined to 5 specific council wards in the centre.
This may spread to the wider community locally although the higher rates of vaccine uptake will help slow that spread. We're not in the same position as last time we saw cases rise. Personally I'll start to become concerned when we see hospital admissions start to rise everywhere at the same rate as cases increase. At the moment that is not happening. I appreciate it's too late to do something when the hospital rates are on the climb, I just see it as the same risk as we saw with previous waves.
I still see the biggest threat to the UK from idiots going on holiday. It's interesting to note the foreign office advice for most amber list countries is essential travel only, this will invalidate many people's insurance, not that it would cover them for Covid anyway.
I still see the biggest threat to the UK from idiots going on holiday. It’s interesting to note the foreign office advice for most amber list countries is essential travel only, this will invalidate many people’s insurance, not that it would cover them for Covid anyway.
The main holiday destinations are being allowed it seems as per FO advice.
Insurers are starting to cover covid now and companies like Tui have agreements with their insurers they use to cover it so travellers can purchase the needed cover.
Hence why the likes of easyjet etc are selling holidays to certain amber countries because the government have allowed it to happen.
They say you shouldn't go but allow it to legally happen.
Odd, I can see it
I can't, but I could yesterday when it was posted. Weird forum....
Broadly agree with stumpyjon. I am of course sad (not angry, i save that for active deniers) that uptake isn't higher in some specific areas, and there's still some convincing to be done clearly. And while this absolutely isn't meant to be interpreted as "happy" that people are dying, hopefully this adds another layer of convincing.
I hope I can say that without people misinterpreting, accidentally or deliberately.
The spikes are occurring in very specific areas with low vaccine take up
Do you have a couple of sources for that? I ask as R4 had someone on stating this was not the case, cant recall who it was unfortunately.
By source, not something just relaying Matt Hancocks statement.
Bolton, Blackburn and Bedford. Have been looking at whether the very rapid (exponential) growth in cases is causing the same increase in admissions. There is some evidence that the rise in admissions is slower than one would predict from past experience. The data on the government dashboard is hopelessly lagged (for admissions) which means some serious code bashing is needed to update with recent data.
With regards to mutating to becoming a common cold. Even colds can kill. The issue here has always been the complete lack of any past immunity to infection. Young Children have several coronavirus infections per year. They develop antibodies that provide protection as they grow older from morbidity. This wanes every couple of years and as adults they get a natural booster infection. This new pathogen hit everyone indiscriminately and pathogenicity increases with age. Vaccination is filling in that missing infection history.
In a year, we’ll be analysing the next but one (or two) mutation. This is entirely normal evolutionary behaviour. Don’t hang your hat on reducing virulence. It’s increasing population immunity that is important here.
PS apologies I’ve been quiet the past few days because work has been a little mad recently. And. It just my gainful employ.
piemonster
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57094274
overlay of cases vs vaccination level in over 40's does seem to correlate well.
Is it causation or correlation, I'm sure there is more to consider (areas of deprivation, multigen households, etc.) but notwithstanding do we not argue that it's even more important that vaccination would be high in these areas rather than lower.
I hope I can say that without people misinterpreting, accidentally or deliberately.
I think you mean it's a tragic reminder of the importance of vaccination?
But yes, we've got a few cases of the Indian variant already identified locally, but I'll not get too pessimistic till I see admissions in vaccinated adults rising.
overlay of cases vs vaccination level in over 40’s does seem to correlate well
You would need to compare with cases before there was a wide uptake of vaccinations anywhere. My money would be on the same areas being the worst hit. Vaccination uptake isn’t really that much lower in the areas currently worst effected this time, and cases are mostly in age groups who until very recently weren’t being offered the vaccine.
do we not argue that it’s even more important that vaccination would be high in these areas rather than lower
A good point.
I’m not asking them to oppose it, I’m asking hem to loudly and publicly call for it when it first needs doing, like Starmer tried to do in October when Boris ignored the scientific advice, or loudly and publicly hold them to account when they fail to do so, pointing out the extra length, severity and damage (including lives) that their inaction has caused
The issue is it didn't achieve anything (lives wise) and quite possibly the inverse
The current "government" (which isn't because it is not accountable to Parliament) relies on fire-hosing and releasing confusing, misleading and simply false information
Wikipedia
Researchers at the German Marshall Fund suggest, among other things, being careful not to repeat or amplify the original false claim; repeating a false story, even to refute it, makes people more likely to believe it.
See challenging lies written on the side of buses.
The issue is it didn’t achieve anything (lives wise) and quite possibly the inverse
I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me, disagreeing with me or talking about something else.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57199791
Spain has said it is officially lifting restrictions for UK travellers from Monday, when a decree takes effect.
They will not need a PCR test.
Try again with the graph...
MoreCashThanDash
I’m not sure if you’re agreeing with me, disagreeing with me or talking about something else.
In this context I'm answering why opposition didn't / doesn't question and hold "the government" to account over Covid responses.
The simple answer is because that would be feeding the misinformation... and it would most likely feed the conspiracy theorists anti-vax/Covid 19 is a myth... quite possibly (even probably) resulting in more deaths.
As Kelvin wrote
See challenging lies written on the side of buses.
So the facts were there.. actual facts. We didn't spend anything close to £350M even before you look at benefits. Even if we had noone in their right mind would think someone committed to selling the NHS is going to take the £350M and spend it on the NHS? (Would they?) but try writing the facts on the side of a bus.
The point really is it doesn't matter how often you show its a lie, you just spread publicity and this is just one lie of hundreds that require more than a soundbite to dispel.
Another view... if we were truthful then the risk of dying from Covid 19 for anyone not yet offered a vaccine is vanishingly small. Probably (just guessing really) way smaller than a nasty flu... but that isn't the point in getting vaccines.
The problem is, given the messaging that has already occurred... trying to explain that to those who quite correctly don't view themselves at significant risk will almost certainly lead to less vaccine uptake whilst reinforcing the earlier lies told by Boris about it being no worse than the flu.
if we were truthful then the risk of dying from Covid 19 for anyone not yet offered a vaccine is vanishingly small
Do we have stats yet on the proportion of people left with long covid? As an active person that's my main concern.
Do we have stats yet on the proportion of people left with long covid? As an active person that’s my main concern.
me too (and still waiting on my first jab).
know 3 people with covid caught march 2020 who are still not right, although slowly improving.
if permanent, thats a fate worse than death in my eyes, wouldn't be able to do anything I enjoy, would even have to become an ebiker in my 30s.
from a national perspective I could still work and pay tax, I imagine this is not the case for anyone whose job involves being on their feet all day, to say nothing of manual laburers.