Would Tired or another capable of an educated/model/informed estimate, like to suggest when London will see a return of the social restrictions or firmer lockdown we are now seeing imposed on large parts of the North and Wales?
It's not just the science though is it - political considerations are also fairly important. Lock down London and suddenly this isn't just "rural unkempt northerners" being confined to their coops for their own good, it's an actual happening sh*tshow; and the most compelling evidence that the government has completed f*cked it.
So it'll lock down too late, again...
Tewit, the way things are going around here they’d be closing soon anyway. I don’t know of any schools without both teachers and staff isolating.
Oh… finally have confirmation on Radio4 that new restrictions are for the whole of Calderdale.
Oh god… BBC voxpops… how about informing the public, not wallowing in their confusion?
Bring back the daily briefings and broadcast them in full.
It’s not just the science though is it – political considerations are also fairly important.
Take a look at the map showing cases per 100k on
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Where would you impose restrictions if you were in charge? London won't be long in catching up, but if you're working regionally then there are bigger issues elsewhere.
France:
Or, in other words, us in three weeks.
Or, in other words, us in three weeks.
I'll go just over a week and a half if the number of cases doubles every seven days.
Or, in other words, us in three weeks.
I wouldn’t bet against it.
New lockdown by next weekend.
Nah, strike that. Announced next Friday, to start on Monday. Might as well give the arseholes one last weekend to binge down the pub.
St Andrews University has just gone into (voluntary) lockdown... a few miles away from us:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-54209452
A record of positive tests but the record of daily cases before confinement will never be known. Working back from the daily death rate gives a ball park figure of over 100 000 a day for early March.
As I said three days ago this week is critical, are the measures in place enough? And the answer seems to be no. As with the return to school/work/uni after the February holidays things aren't going well.
I think junior is representative of the younger generation, the risks for them are so low they'd rather just get on with life. They're as/more likely to die of a host of other things RTA/overdose/suicide/random other illness. If they could live in a generational bubble that would be fine, but they don't. Junior has announced he's fed up with being stuck in Paris with f-all to do and is going to visit us... . Having been DJ at a rave, socialised with hundreds and attended uni. He thinks he may have had it last week but couldn't be arsed to queue for a test and as for isolating.
Madame is still at school which has had only one class closed.
The alternative is, well, the usual one over here, so I'm going along with the organised chaos rather than another set of pitched battles in the street and the government losing what little control they have.
The fear has gone.
Mrs anagallis has lost sense of smell, I tested it with half a tub of Vicks and now believe her...testing website says no!!
On the bright side, think how much you can save in shower gel.
On the bright side, think how much you can save in shower gel.
Also that very expensive turbo thats been sat in the garage since march unused might get some use!!
I am slightly baffled as to why numbers here are currently lowish. London’s make up meant it led the country by a week or more in phase 1
Public transport is a huge source of cross-transmission in London. It has been shut down and not really reopened to any significant extent. Hospital cases in London and other NHS areas have turned over and are now rising, slower than at the beginning of the epidemic, so assume a doubling every 7-14 days. We are probably about five doublings from the late March, early April peak. Six to eight weeks is a long time in an epidemic. Follow the admissions not the cases.
And now tell me about preexisting immunity. How’s that working prof Gupta?
Nah, strike that. Announced next Friday, to start on Monday. Might as well give the arseholes one last weekend to binge down the pub.
I've a thought they're going to go for some lockdown-lite - close as much as they possibly can (pubs, shops etc) but keep anything that is somehow desirable (schools, road repairs, Brexshit planners) going.
Fast forward three weeks and we're at half term for many schools. I think today's 'circuit breaker' comments are about some kind of fortnight full lockdown, in the middle of lockdown-lite.
Sadly, the dates tie in exactly with some asks around planning for a second peak, that the Education Recovery Group up here mentioned back in June...
I wonder where we are on the Covid Alert scale? Hopefully we aren't at level three as the actions were general relaxation of restrictions. The scale does look even more laughably inadequate under current circumstances.
Test booked for 8.30 tomorrow morning!
I’ve a thought they’re going to go for some lockdown-lite – close as much as they possibly can (pubs, shops etc) but keep anything that is somehow desirable (schools, road repairs, Brexshit planners) going.
Pointless to keep schools open as the rise has been since re opening them. I work in an FE college with plenty of courses that could run remotely, but we still have to go in. We had success with remote learning before with a 100% success rate. That's without exams being estimated. The college most likely saved money on energy Bill's too.
I'm being logical again. I meant to say, colleges are immune to the virus.
I assume there will be no more vouchers for restaurants!
^^Eat Out to Help (Covid) Out?
can't see fans back at football now.... this really will be curtains for most theaters (without serious state intervention)
thanks Tired, that makes sense, getting on a bus and going into town this week, public transport use is waaaay down.
And now tell me about preexisting immunity. How’s that working prof Gupta?
As most of STW expected in Europe, however in Africa the virus isn't nearly a deadly as expected.
So if I'm following the news correctly, the European countries worst hit by Covid in the first wave - us, France, Spain - are the ones looking to be hit worse by the impending second wave. Those that did better first time round seem to be having a smaller second wave coming.
Is it a government failure in all those countries that's led to the bigger second wave? Is it societal issues with sticking to rules/using "common sense"? Did none of us learn from the first wav
We're obviously finding all the faults in our own government's actions, just intrigued if it's similar failings elsewhere.
thanks Tired, that makes sense, getting on a bus and going into town this week, public transport use is waaaay down.
I got the northern line a week or so ago at "rush hour" and managed to get on the first tube at london bridge and even got a seat! I was amazed. Like already said our only saving grace right now is the majority of the city is still working from home and will be for the long term. Seems logical the cases will rise here soon too. somehow they ned to get a grip on it but we cant stay locked away forever until this vaccine does or doesnt appear.
however in Africa the virus isn’t nearly a deadly as expected.
This is primarily a killer of the elderly and those with comorbidities associated with extended age. Life expectancy varies within Africa obviously, but on average is around 65 in Africa compared with 79 in Western Europe (males). There may well be some other factors in play, lifestyle perhaps and genetics, but essentially you're not comparing a similar cohort.
I also wonder which strain is predominant in Africa - as some are more virulent/less deadly, or just less deadly. We seem to have copped the worst one.
Mrs anagallis has lost sense of smell, I tested it with half a tub of Vicks and now believe her…testing website says no!!
wife had to take a test (postal) yesterday, just awaiting results. gov.uk website said no local tests so had to order one.
shes had a high temperature which could have been anything, but the cruncher was weirdly when she shot up from the settee saying "somethings on fire down there, the laptop leads on fire. cant you smell it?? switch everything off!" i couldnt smell anything and nothing was on fire. she swore she could smell it, so with 'loss or change of taste or smell' as a symptom too, here we go........
Many African countries are far better at disease control than we are.
Before we forget the contribution of Dr Professor Sir James Delingpole MO WTF - let's just take some time to look at his best bits -
How can Boris be telling us we’re entering a second wave when just a few short weeks ago it was safe to return to work?
Its almost as if we’ve a government of bullshitting ****s?
Its almost as if we’ve a government of bullshitting ****?
That's the best case. Alternatively it's more of the "firehosing" that they've used in the past.
Keep everyone confused to **** with a constant stream of often contradictory information and no one knows what or who to be angry about.
Plus we've had a media happily showing people failing to socially distance, interviewing people clearly not from the same household sat round a pub table telling us how nice it is to get back to normal, or the crowd waiting at the Spurs ground yesterday for Gareth Bale.
It's 2 metres, unless you're wearing a mask. Always.
But ultimately, the Cummings fiasco is what ****ed the chances of enough public compliance.
I can guess what my sister in law is doing this weekend, who lives in an area under stricter measures. Driving out of the lockdown area to drop her son off at grandma’s. Then going back and staying the night at her new boyfriends house. Basically, as was the norm during full lockdown 🤷♂️
How can Boris be telling us we’re entering a second wave when just a few short weeks ago it was safe to return to work?
Might the graphics showing rapidly rising wall on cases graph. It's easier to keep stating second wave than admitting this is just the infection getting away from him. Just caught part of Breakfast news and flattening the curve was being mentioned again. Cases go up, you put measures in cases come down. If they are bouncing along the crest then they've got something wrong.
Quite interesting the Dr giving the interview said there was 50years of evidence showing three weeks after the start of term there is a spike in colds and infections.
More concerning is trying the same thing again a countrywide application of control measures in October? Seems it's just incentivising movement (and so spreading) before putting the brakes on again. Months of seeing exactly how people behave and yet the government's behavioural unit appears to be wilfully ignorant and steadfastly stuck to the same old same old.
Public transport is a huge source of cross-transmission in London. It has been shut down and not really reopened to any significant extent.
Not sure I entirely agree with that, I’m sure pre-lockdown it was a primary cause of transmission but to say it “is” and not “was” is misleading. Public transport services in terms of frequency are approaching 100% in most of the country due to DfT funding but passenger use is at the 40% to 50% levels.
1m+ on buses has limited capacity to around 50% of normal, and so long as people wear a face covering and maintain a distance it’s pretty safe.
Anyway, DfT are about to undertake some detailed research on transmission on public transport so it’ll be interesting to see what that reveals.
Boris referred to the 'inevitable' 2nd wave whereas Dido said 'who could have predicted' the increase in demand for tests and Dom says 'I couldn't care f less'. The chaos and confusion stirred up by this will increase the agony and it will be the poor who suffer most, and get the blame. I'm expecting Hancock to argue that Covid victims only have themselves to blame for wearing crocs and tatts and shopping in Asda.
This site has some fantastic contributors and interrogators and combined with IndieSage, gives a much more vivid picture of what might be going on.
NB Just noticed in the hateful speech by JRM (junior John Cleese), he said we should thank 'the administration' and no mention of the NHS. What a poisonous, insidious ratbag that man is.
Not sure I entirely agree with that, I’m sure pre-lockdown it was a primary cause of transmission but to say it “is” and not “was” is misleading.
Hence the use of the word “Source”. Clearly contacts are also a source of transmission too. The amount attributable to the source is obviously dependent on current levels. Use of London transport is approximately 20% of normal, hence that source of TFL-related cases is reduced by perhaps 80%. I should have added “potential” if that helps.
Quite interesting the Dr giving the interview said there was 50years of evidence showing three weeks after the start of term there is a spike in colds and infections.
Naga Munchetty actually had to step in while he was mid-waffle because he was giving the impression that there was not much for people to be worried about. Yes, there is always a spike in transmission of whatever viruses are floating about in September. But normally they are rhinoviruses and far more benign coronaviruses etc, rather than a mixture of rhinoviruses and a lethal pandemic strain of coronavirus.
We don't want people dismissing trivial symptoms like mild coughs and temperatures in children as just the normal stuff that's going around, even if it isn't making them any more ill than normal, because their contacts, and their contacts' contacts could be made seriously ill. The cycle of transmission has to be disrupted wherever possible, even if it means the school year will be punctuated with periods of self-isolation.
VENT mode activatated.
****ing hell you would think mrs anagallis was being tested for syphillis the way she is about telling anyone, apparently me telling my mates who I was supposed to be leading a ride with this morning is terrible, what if her friends find out!!! **** me this could be a long two weeks!! And she did the shopping last week and forgot to buy beer 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
New patio time, do B&Q deliver?
which is pretty simple, they just encode small conversion variants
Forget B&Q, breweries deliver.
Secrecy about possibly having Covid-19 is a very counter productive trait to exhibit right now. Informal contact tracing is something we should all see as our responsibility.
VENT mode activatated.
**** hell you would think mrs anagallis was being tested for syphillis
If that was the case you would have every right to vent - and lay a new patio...
Marina delivers her weekly demolition
Matt Hancock, could you honestly think of no one better to run test and trace?
Many African countries are far better at disease control than we are.
True.
I worked in West Africa when ebola was going on. Nobody was moaning about the rules or protesting their rights.
