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“what if this is only the start?”
The economic fallout is going to reqjuire countries to work together to resolve. When they start disagreeing with each other out of narrow self interest that could easily spiral out of control. Given the people running the major powers in the world today, does anyone have any faith in them to work together?
“White man”, native Americans, Maori, and aborigines are all the same species
Whilst true, I doubt the natives at the time thought this.
No, the idea is to protect the vulnerable and let the low-risk get it and recover to create population immunity. Quarantining everyone raises many serious questions.
… which won’t work.
Well, it might but it's a high risk strategy, but until a vaccine is developed, it's the only option unless you confine people indefinitely in the hope that the virus goes away (possibly in the summer) - and then it'll come back next winter.
So you’ve to leave the house if you are incapable of moving?
I suppose they are referring to the “keep people away from you” part of self isolation. If you can, don’t have visitors, and isolate yourself from the people you share your home with. If you’re immobile, you will need visitors, or the help of those you live with.
Waiting for as many people as possible to contract it is the opposite of that, it’s maximising exposure to the vulnerable.
One of many good reasons why this “herd immunity via natural exposure at speed” line from the government is just risky nonsense.
and then it’ll come back next winter
I keep hearing this “why delay, it’ll hit big sometime, better now then next winter”, but that completely overlooks the fact that people who actually know what the f they are doing are putting everything into understanding this virus, so we can counteract it long term. As the WHO keep saying… we need to contain (or at least delay when containment fails) this ‘till science can better help and protect our medical workforce, otherwise we are greatly increasing the risk to them (and hence lowering quality of care for the rest of us)… and for what purpose? Betting on a horse race in person? University students not having a term of distance learning?
It really seems like the single most important thing in the UK strategy- the immunity theory- is unproven. So, what are the reasons for depending on it working? What are the reasons for worrying that it won't?
What, ultimately, are the odds that the entire strategy is based on depending on something happening, that just doesn't? Or that if it does happen, doesn't offer the benefits that the plan requires for it to be the right one? (ie, if we do achieve an immunity but it's shortlived, like the common cold)
It's a new disease of course so absolute proof can't exist. But there are already cases that are described as proven reinfection- though it seems we don't really know 100% if they were just cases where the infection remained present and then rallied, rather than total recovery followed by return. But considering the short timescales here, even a small level of reinfection would be very worrying.
We also don't know if it'll mutate quickly or if the L and S strains will each provide immunity for the other. (in fact there seems to be some doubt about the 2 strains even really existing?)
There is also the definite possibility that instead of attaining herd immunity, our approach speeds flow of the disease through the population- ie doesn't flatten the hat as much as we could and stresses the health system more- but doesn't ever attain the levels of infection required for immunity. Having 50% of the country get covid-19 fast doesn't achieve anything more than having them get it slowly, and causes more problems.
And of course, if an effective vaccine is found, then we could have attained the immunity in a less awful way.
So there's a hell of a lot of ifs here. I have no idea what any of the answers are to this of course but I can see where questions are.
From what I've read - and there's precious little detail available - the strategy depends on being able to reduce the number of sick people to levels that can be more or less managed by the NHS - i.e. in traditional British fashion, forming an orderly queue to get the disease and proceed calmly to hospital if required.
The problems are 1) we aren't testing so we don't know when to change strategy, and 2) even if we knew the numbers we have very little control over them. It's not as though we can see the trends gently increasing and instruct the population to do a bit of extra hand washing to bring the level back to the desired level.
What we are doing is not significantly different to what the Italians were doing a couple of weeks ago.
All flights from the UK and Ireland to the USA now stopped from Monday night.
US travel ban to be extended to UK/Ireland, I guess trump must be taking this hoax virus pandemic seriously now?
Positive capitalism post:
Apple are doing two interesting things… closing all stores everywhere (irrespective of the official national response)… and giving all credit card users a payment holiday without penalty.
Will be interesting to see if other retailers and lenders follow suit… especially as regards mortgage payment holidays… and loan payments for small companies etc.
Of course, in many countries national policy is enabling this stuff anyway, but interesting to see if companies and banks take such action in countries without instructions coming from government.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1238837158007447558
"How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic. (7/12)"
"Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns. (8/12)"
Spiegelhalter is also someone to listen to.
https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1238833499211259904
The narrative of this is interesting, especially the different ways the authorities reacted. San Francisco standing out. (The pictures used are a bit random)
The lesson? - head in the sand tactics don't work.
The Cambridge University version
That’s a completely defeatist and I might say cowardly outlook. If you look at other countries like China and Italy the public have completely embraced it and are doing their bit in order to protect the vulnerable and medical workers.
It's realistic.
My work has put plans in place for the entire workload to be covered by 2 shifts out of 5 working back to back and living on site, this has an expected max length of 7-10 days before mental health effects take over.
To achieve a 4-5 week lockdown would require marshal law and the sort of strict discipline this country just doesn't do. For every reasonable action there will always be one twit that thinks the law doesn't apply to them or will break it simply out of spite. Take a few links out the chain and you would have a complete breakdown of discipline. I'm not being defeatist, I'm being realistic.
Then why do people like Francois Balloux and Spiegelhalter seem to have reservations about the governments approach?
The list of naysayers is getting long, first it's a former director of public health, then the WHO, now UK based epidemiologists and statisticians are starting to have bun fights with each other over twitter or questioning assumptions.
Let's not forget the tainted blood scandal and BSE hey? My hedge is that this will bring the Boris government down.
To achieve a 4-5 week lockdown would require marshal law and the sort of strict discipline this country just doesn’t do. For every reasonable action there will always be one twit that thinks the law doesn’t apply to them or will break it simply out of spite.
The "Yellow Vests" were out today in Paris.
John Hopkins educated epidemiologist.....
The scientific bun fight erupting on twitter is epic by the way.
Got a link to the twitter fight?
Was mentioned earlier in the thread. Our response is what happens when you have a eugenicist at the heart of government.
Survival of the fittest. May the odds be in your favour
Boris and Cummings Cummings can't be trusted based on the posts above.
Well thats a pain in the Balearics
Spain is now limiting journeys to the essential: work, carers, getting food and medicine.
I'll be riding or running to work on Monday - seems ridiculous to get on the train
@bob_summers According to this article running is now band in Spain :-O
(But I guess if it's the commute should be ok!)
I saw on the guardian earlier that two different letters were sent to govt. one with 200 signatories from scientists saying herd immunity will fail and another by 150 social scientists saying there is no proof of behavioural fatigue being an issue.
Interestingly we went for a quick pint last night and the pub was heaving, more so than normal and I saw on social media that one cafe has had its busiest ever day. Wonder if people are going out with the expectation that soon it won't be sensible to do so?
Aye that's my rationale @dot - I'm hardly going to contract it running or riding 10k on back lanes, compared to taking the train.
To achieve a 4-5 week lockdown would require marshal law and the sort of strict discipline this country just doesn’t do. For every reasonable action there will always be one twit that thinks the law doesn’t apply to them or will break it simply out of spite. Take a few links out the chain and you would have a complete breakdown of discipline. I’m not being defeatist, I’m being realistic.
This doesn't invalidate total lockdowns. It's not about one person, it's about probabilities and limiting the spread enough so that contact tracing can take place.
Hong Kong and Singapore have managed it, or are we so racist that we won't learn from them?
Aye, just finished a 10k run in town, round corner from my house, it's like any other Saturday, lasses wi hardly any clothes on, guys smoking in groups outside the pubs etc, but they've not had any guidance to say otherwise tbf.
Its just bizarre.
And a Norwegian airlines plane that hasn't moved since they went tits up took off, going to bring folks back from Spain I'd imagine.
We attempted to drink our local dry last night - all closed as of today - but there were very few people out
Is this the first one at the start of the fall of Man?
oooh oooh, I'm going retract the Boris theory entered for tin foil hat of the day award and go for extra terrestrial ecologists managing an infestation.
I expect Cummings was dead chuffed that Thanos wasn't that bothered about being labelled a misfit or weirdo.
Had quie a few of my older customers tell me they are in at risk group eg ongoing illness or over 60 plus, and theyre just waiting for the inevitable, what can i tell them, ignore the sun and daily mail, turn off the news on the tv and just carry on regardless,for those older in their 90,s,like they did in the last war for some of them,rationing /bombs, no nhs, and no power or gas for days.
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON. WHAT WILL BE WILL BE.
Back to the conspiracy. This thing with China claiming it's a US bio-weapon. Well has anyone considered that this is perfect timing for the US presidential election to be cancelled and Trump to be awarded emergency powers? Sound familiar?
no proof of behavioural fatigue being an issue.
If you're in a vulnerable group, you shouldn't need a government lock down to know that you should isolate yourself.
This thing with China claiming it’s a US bio-weapon.
Stop with that bullshit.
WHAT WILL BE WILL BE.
Determined by the actions of the people you live amongst, as well as your own.
And another thing, where the hell are the labour party on this? I follow all the candidates and existing leadership on twitter, along with a number of left-leaning journalists and commentators and other than Paul Mason there's barely been a peep out of them on this 'Herd Immunity/genocide/cull' policy.
Stop with that bullshit.
Not serious. It was a vain attempt to go back to the good old early days of this thread when it was all just an amusing topic of conversation. How fast things change!
Hong Kong and Singapore have managed it, or are we so racist that we won’t learn from them?
Nothing to do with racism, both are fairly totalitarian next to our country with totally different social attitudes to government orders or outbreak control (delete as applicable). That's before you consider they are both effectively city states with a dense population concentrated in near enough one area, completely the opposite to the UK.
Hong Kong has a great many lessons to offer us, sadly we will probably be learning then 17 years too late. Last time I was there (2010) they were still hot on disinfection and personal hygiene post-SARS. Judging by the clatty bastards I work with any actual spread will rip through us before we know what hit us.
Even the local supermarket was quiet. I thought all the stories would mean it was heaving. It looked busy to start with but then I coughed a couple of times and remarked that it felt quite hot and the place was suddenly much less busy...
I was in Sainsbury's earlier & when some bloke coughed loudly everyone else looked round like there had been a gunshot
Lisa Nandy has been on the ball all alone (I meant to type “along”, but that still makes sense) @dazh … calling for the Brexit imp period to be extended for a year, right now, to give us one thing to handle at a time … also calling for a proper plan to protect the elderly. I’ll dig up links…
Liked this tweet from Ivan Cortina
https://twitter.com/ivan_cortina/status/1238879327590273024?s=19
One grand tour to start in Italia and finish in Spain via France 😂
Then why do people like Francois Balloux and Spiegelhalter seem to have reservations about the governments approach?
The government's approach seems to be two-pronged, based on both psychology and virology. Which I think is quite intelligent. I still think this is all softening us up and then when they do introduce more severe restrictions next week we'll be all over it.
Re the 60% immunity, I think it depends on which 60% get it. 60% of us can afford to get it, have a cough for a bit, then carry on. I'd volunteer for this if it'd help keep it suppressed for the rest.
I still think this is all softening us up and then when they do introduce more severe restrictions next week we’ll be all over it.
Softening us up? I suppose so. Waiting ‘till it’s gone from no one seemingly knowing anyone with it, to everyone knowing someone with it. I still think it’s a mistake and we should be seeking to contain it before it’s widespread. The part of this that assumes it’s better to have it spread than trust the public to act for a longer period is both wrong headed and insulting, in my opinion.
First case in our family by the way (tested positive). Not in our household though, thank…
Interesting way to soften up the population by making them all think you're trying to kill their elderly relatives. Is this what civil servants would call a 'brave' policy?
Oh, and #boristhebutcher is now trending on twitter! He should give Gordon Brown a ring about how quickly a prime ministership can to turn to shit.
Things are getting serious here in Spain. state of emergency announced yesterday and limit of movement of people being discussed right now.
Major deviation from the UK approach here in NI. Effectively a split on sectarian lines (unsurprisingly).
SF calling for schools and colleges to close and an approach similar to ROI. Catholic Church has cancelled all masses and religious ceremonies. Gaelic Athletic Association has cancelled all training and matches. DUP etc steadfastly following the lead from London.
Looks like plans afoot to lock up the elderly https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/
I still don't understand the delay. Totally understand that taking a small amount of time to organise it properly will be better than panicking, but it'd be better if they said they'd bring this in as soon as they can. I also wonder whether this is a move in reaction to the criticism they deservedly received? I hope I never hear the phrase 'herd immunity' again.
Anyone else keeping their kids off school next week?
Personally have zero confidence in the douche bags running our country..
plus they are all already ill / recovering from a recent cold cough so not too keen on them get c19 if already run down. 2 weeks ago 50% of our kids school (33 kids from a school of 67)were off (all pretty much became ill on the same day) with the same sore throat, cough virus type illness...
Nope, the boy can go to school.
infection rates among aged 9 or below are tiny with very little risk.
I am at the point of wondering when it would be best to catch it, but essentially the schools will be an infection vector and sadly nothing will stop that.
Anyone else keeping their kids off school next week?
Nope, statistically the safest group to catch it. More concerned about our parents TBH.
djglover
Looks like plans afoot to lock up the elderly
Eff that. I'll be out on my bike.
Anyone else keeping their kids off school next week?
We're back and forth over this at home at the moment.
Daughter was apparently told in one class (yr10) they're prepping lesson packs now, and will close Friday at latest, irrespective of government position.
I hope I never hear the phrase ‘herd immunity’ again.
I hope I hear it just as soon as a vaccine is in production, and given to medical staff and the elderly.
Nope, statistically the safest group to catch it. More concerned about our parents TBH.
Well lets hope the kids dont vector it there way!
Looks like plans afoot to lock up the elderly
Eff that. I’ll be out on my bike.
I'm with you Epicyclo
My rampant paranoia says don’t trust any “rushed” vaccine as it’ll bring on the impending zombie apocalypse.
Also all unnecessary shops in France are to be shut BUT local elections going ahead!
It will be ok if you take your own pencil to the polling office
Eff that. I’ll be out on my bike
You might not be if UK follows Spain.
There's also the school of thought that you might knack yourself and take up a precious hospital bed 😂
People out on their balconies applauding the nurses at 10pm every night, a bit cheesy but quite nice to hear.
Interesting stat I hadn't seen:
The total number of confirmed cases in the UK has reached 1,140 while 37,746 people have been tested.
So out of the people who ticked enough boxes to warrant testing, only 3% even had the disease at all.
Molgrips, so what you're saying is that we should listen to some psychologist on twitter and take the Nudge units word that their "behavioural psychology" models are accurate, over the concerns of other epidemiologists, virologists and statisticians.
Spiegelhalter is the man when in comes to understanding the accuracy, need for evidence and real world implications of models. Behavioural psychologists are not, they are not statisticians, they are not epidemiologists. The entire field of behavioural psychology has major reproducibility issues.
Watch this.
Stop telling people who know more than you, that they should shut up and tow the line. That's not what good science is about.
Schools in Shetland are closed now and most events and clubs have cancelled.
The cinema is still open but restricting numbers so that there's space so people can space themselves out 😂
Some cafes/restaurants have closed or only offering take out. Our local hotel isn't taking guests or serving food, just drinks.
As of Friday we had 11 confirmed cases out of a population of 22k, but there's little testing.
bob_summers
You might not be if UK follows Spain.
100 yards from my house and I'm on the slope of the mountain. There's plenty forest to disappear into.
If there's a lockdown, I'll be bikepacking for 4 months.
If they look serious about doing it, I'll put the gear together, and I'll be out the door. The family can do food drops for me.
The only worry is how to carry 5 years supply of toilet paper on the bike. That's how much the preppers reckon we need, isn't it?... 🙂
Well this has thread has well and truly gone off the deep end hasn’t it?
Thought you was dead 🙂
(Nothing like a bit of light hearted brevity and an escape from New York reference)
Anyway to live up to my nom de plume
Herd immunity - I’d scribbled some numbers down on a fag packet for a friend a few weeks ago on a small subset of data, then promptly threw it away as they were away to unpalatable and those numbers were nothing like er what the uk gov seem happy with.
From a man who used a bus to promise funding and then offered to build 40 more hospitals to get a free flat,I feel a bit annoyed that this is the best response as I saw the Chinese build a hospital on fb in a week to help with their problem.
In the way anything seems possible at the moment.
Could the great experiment include monitoring by social media trend for the spread of infection rather than actual sampling?
This is Cummings, he'd use the same tool kit as he did on get Brexit done.
The Eton Care Pathway seemed an outsider a few days ago but looks like it's a racing certainty for the governments plan.
I was in Sainsbury’s earlier & when some bloke coughed loudly everyone else looked round like there had been a gunshot
There have been people wandering around with dry coughs for weeks.
Molgrips, so what you’re saying is that we should listen to some psychologist on twitter and take the Nudge units word that their “behavioural psychology” models are accurate, over the concerns of other epidemiologists, virologists and statisticians.
Not in the least - I just posted a link. Not every post on an internet forum is a cock fight, please remember that.
Stop telling people who know more than you, that they should shut up and tow the line.
Never done that. I just like sharing interesting stuff, can I do that without being accused of trying to convince people they're wrong and I'm right? A few pages back I posted the same thing you just did - that on here we know cock all.
Now, back to the topic at hand - the scientific community appears split on the UK's approach. So it's not really fair to say 'scientists say X and the UK government is ignoring them' cos that's not really true. I think that Whitty and Valance aren't idiots and they aren't simply yes men either. It seems to me that they are executing a plan and whilst different from other countries it is not 'not doing anything' which the angry internet voices are keen to shout about.
From that ITV link:
Other measures already being planned include:
the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.
People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months.According to a senior government source, the perception that ministers are reluctant to make difficult and costly decisions to battle the virus is wrong. It is simply that the chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are waiting for the optimal time to force restrictions on our way of life that will be very painful.
Just posted this on my Facebook
The gamble (and it is a massive gamble) is that they are hoping that mass immunity through infection will continue to be effective when the virus mutates.
It could work incredibly well as it would effectively inoculate from the reinfections that will come up whenever quarantine is released.
The massive danger is viral mutation defeating the immunity, or potentially even worse we could end up with a situation like dengue fever where subsequent infections of a different strain makes the resulting infection many times worse.
Big big gamble
Seems no doubt that we have stopped containment and others havent
Big big gamble
Harry Callahan: You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?
Government now saying that going for hard immunity not part of the plan?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
Which is weird because it's exactly what Vallance said the other day!
My worry is that government have looked at the numbers & figured they've got little choice
I don't quite get why social distancing & lockdown not been enforced stricter, otherwise spike will come sooner than they hope.
And NHS is in no way ready for it, so many beds have been lost in last decade (10,000), ft staff vacancies now at 100,000 !(tho many of those usually filled by temp staff)
Winter in the nhs is always desperate, this year has been better than the last 2 for itu beds (judging by no. of cancelled ops I see) but that's only thanks to mild winter.
Knock on will be huge though, itu beds used for covid, means no elective surgeries- hip replacements, knee old etc etc, but also no recovery beds for other ops, cancer, heart attacks, maternity?
This is why Johnson is gambling on herd immunity, containment phase failed quickly because NHS was overwhelmed & unable to track, trace & isolate (as WHO are saying they should be)
The real gamble is that no one really knows how many need to be infected to achieve it, R0 (which is measure of communicability) for covid is 2-3 (from what I've seen from China reports) so for a typical vaccine
That would mean 60-80% would need to be infected, (Valance says 60 & obviously he has the best data on it) but that will depend on how effective having had is at giving you immunity if you catch it again, especially if it's mutated a lot - flu jab has to be reformulated every year & doesn't always work same for everyone.
The other gamble is how the nhs copes, if mortality rate can be kept to 1% that's maybe 50,000 deaths, if it's 5% that's nearer 1/4 million deaths. Flu normally kills ~2000? every winter.
IF it's social modelling that's directing Johnson on when he should close schools etc, is a bit worrying, it was similar modelling that mispredicted people's reaction to a brexit vote.
Meanwhile cost to economy & people's finances, when we already have 2million children living in absolute poverty is **** scary
We sat here watching sars & mers & eebola, at a safe distance, honestly never thought it could happen to us