Compare the results of two Google searches.
"nitty gritty expression wiki"
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Talk:nitty-gritty
"black sheep expression wiki"
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Talk:nitty-gritty
One immediately bring up a link to slavery and thus racisim. The other gets no link to either on whichever wiki page you choose.
Calderdale cases per 100,000 as of last week approx 600. Andalucía about 20. I think everyone on calderdale can sleep easy 😀. It’s a hysterical over-reaction. I wish I could stay here for the rest of the summer, it’s much, much safer.
Calderdale cases per 100,000 as of last week approx 600.
Really?! Surely they’d be under local lockdown if they were that high. Leicester locked down at around 120 if I remember right.
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Fair enough I read the wrong scale. About the same then. Still no need to panic.
Despite the facts @Edukator spouts the French do not distance, they do not observe the rules and the masks are used in the most minimal way possible to comply with the rules and carry on as normal.
That was not my experience from 2 weeks in Paris. Lot of mask wearing in the street, everyone in shops was wearing a mask, had to have an appointment to go into the Orange shop. Quite a lot of people in the street, and outdoor eating in full swing, but not many people dining indoors. Masks and gel for sale everywhere. But there is an uptick in the cases so maybe all this isn't enough 🙁
Hope you had a good holiday anyhow, the weather has been great if nothing else. We won’t be going to the west coast till September because it’s always packed in Summer and staycations mean some places are unusually busy this year.
Fantastic, I'm an huge francophile, family bike trails everywhere. 'Like a huge centre-parcs' is how one of our party described it.
Atlantic waves are rolling, lakes are bath warm and the vibe wonderful.
As almost all the brits are away it's empty by normal standards so I hear, we're having the time of our lives.
Just getting used to moving our days 3hrs backwards too. 😎
(not cheap anymore though, famiky bank is drained. 😳)
Enjoy your stay, Dazh. It's a pandemic, it's everywhere, even North Korea is reporting cases and you don't get more isolationist than that unless you own a self-sufficient private island.
If you travel stick to the local rules even if some of the locals don't. Look after yourselves and in doing so you'll look after everyone else.
I wouldn't fly, that's just a personal choice, because unless you're CFH in business class it's a miserably crowded, sweaty and smelly experience at the best of times.
If you're not local it's really not a good idea to party noisily through the night on cheap booze and leave puddles of puke around the place when everyone else is tucked up in their tents/campers/caravan. It's not a good idea if you're local but if you're not you're creating tensions that will lead to prejudice - and in Covid times, well. And then you'll moan when you travel and people are wary of you. I worked a Summer on campsites in Royan and St Tropez way back when BTW, that was an amusing insight.
Are we honestly now saying that the use of the term 'black sheep' is racist??? I've never heard anything so stupid in all my life. You really need to go out your way to make that connection.. and I think only a tiny percentage of people would.
Are we honestly now saying that the use of the term ‘black sheep’ is racist???
We?
Perhaps the Black Sheep discussion could be herded off to somewhere else, and the Mods could clear things back onto topic?
I see what ewe did there.
I've just noticed you posted while I was typing, Picton. My last post is absolutely not a reply to yours or aimed at you. Your observations are accurate about what's happening with Covid measures on the west coast.
I shouln't have raised the issue of those puking campers on here. There are a minority of idiots everywhere, nowhere has a monopoly.
Perhaps the Black Sheep discussion could be herded off to somewhere else, and the Mods could clear things back onto topic?
I'll drink to that!
This just popped onto my news feed..
Lasting heart damage from corona virus in majority of cases. That's a pretty scary read..some of them did my even have any symptoms!!
Meanwhile, after adjusting for the (small) weekly cycle, today was the highest number of positive tests for several weeks.
Perhaps the Black Sheep discussion could be herded off to somewhere else, and the Mods could clear things back onto topic?
Amen. There is a thread for it. I tried not to prolong it but some people like to leap at the opportunity to cajole and bully behind their keyboards.
FWIW and then I’ll **** off;
and I think only a tiny percentage of people would
Nail on the head, that’s why they are referred to as a minority.
Kryton, this is not a hill to choose to die on even though the bigger subject is important. I think in this particular case you may be mistaken.
Your welcome to your opinion Crikey, let’s carry on with Coronavirus here though.
Meanwhile, after adjusting for the (small) weekly cycle, today was the highest number of positive tests for several weeks.
Huh?
On the subject of Corona and heart damage the orignal German articles that statnews article refers to aren't so alarming. Sure the worst affected Covid patients often have heart damage but the jury is still out on
Lasting heart damage from corona virus in majority of cases.
The orignal states
It is too soon to say if the damage in patients recovering from Covid-19 is transient or permanent, but cardiologists are worried.
There have been articles in the German press babout the Hamburg team for a few months now and all link the severity of cases with the degree of damage for the moment. Wait and see rather than panic now about speculation of damage to mild/non-symptomatic cases.
I'm a little sceptical about the German stuff; in the UK, you don't get the attention of a cardiologist unless there's something wrong with your heart, and you don't get any kind of cardiology scan unless you've seen a cardiologist and they think something is worth scanning. It sounds like it's not applicable to the majority of folk who have had the virus...
Larry, I've been doing a simple adjustment to the numbers in order to smooth out the weekly cycle. Monday is usually a small number, presumably due to different numbers of people working at weekends. Like with the number of deaths reported each day, but not such a large effect.
I’m a bit nervous about the numbers today as traditionally they are higher on Tuesdays. They have been creeping steadily up but I’d love to see a more regional breakdown to see if this is generic and widespread or not.
We should know whether we are facing a second wave or this is a natural creep due to the nations unlocking process. If it’s the former, I can see a September/winter lockdown on the horizon which is a huge worry.
I can see a September/winter lockdown on the horizon which is a huge worry.
Why ? What will it change ? I think a large chunk of us as still in 'lockdown' mode to a great extent anyway ? So even if there is, very little will change for many.
I'm seeing little point thinking too hard about the numbers in advance, and that's from someone with a history of anxiety and depression.
I suspect this is a very elongated and bumpy tail to the first wave. Or maybe just the resultant numbers from endemic infection. I fear any second wave will be a winter thing.
I’m a bit nervous about the numbers today as traditionally they are higher on Tuesdays. They have been creeping steadily up but I’d love to see a more regional breakdown to see if this is generic and widespread or not.
We should know whether we are facing a second wave or this is a natural creep due to the nations unlocking process. If it’s the former, I can see a September/winter lockdown on the horizon which is a huge worry.
The best thing you could do is get on with your life and avoid the numbers, news etc tbh.
Why worry about Tuesday numbers if you know they're gonna be higher? It's pointless.
And the first wave is still going IMO, second wave is also a pointless worry at this time.
You seem quite anxious, I'd step away from this thread as well as the constant negative news channels if I were you.
There was a post about what school's have planned. Well we start back 10/08 and so far nothing. Since holidays started end of June not a single communication. We were given dates where ScotGov would be announcing stuff and I asked should we be checking for updates a few days after that to be ready. Answer "staff are not expected to check emails during holidays".
So I'll be returning on 10/08 with no plan for 11/08 onwards. No ppe unless first aid or with other staff or within 2m of pupils.
I found it better to educate myself about things rather than either relying on what I heard or just sticking my head in the sand. Given the failures of SAGE I will continue to do so as I have little confidence in them. But that doesn’t mean this approach will work for all.
Well thanks for the personal observations but I'd like to read and contribute to a thread without them, thanks.
I don't see an issue with considering the near future. There are many like me with a redundant spouse and children looking to get to school and as much as their CV19 related health is important, so is their current mental health and the rest of their lives. I'd really like to think they can have a bit more interaction after the next few weeks and Mrs K can get into looking for a job / out of the house after her torrid redundancy process is over.
Being able to plan around future events can help that.
Why ? What will it change ?
Infection rates.
Hospital admission rates.
Numbers of people dying each day.
Pressure on the NHS.
I’m a little sceptical about the German stuff; in the UK, you don’t get the attention of a cardiologist unless there’s something wrong with your heart, and you don’t get any kind of cardiology scan unless you’ve seen a cardiologist and they think something is worth scanning. It sounds like it’s not applicable to the majority of folk who have had the virus…
I can understand why a cardiologist might have the spare time to take a look outside his normal cohort at the moment, given the drop in 'routine' work.I'd be interested in seeing the paper.
Having said that, my initial reaction was that a similar potentially damaging inflammatory response could well be the natural consequence of a severe viral infection, Covid or not. I'd be more interested if these markers/structural changes were still present a year or 18 months post-infection, and how they compared with people in the wake of other viral infections, for example influenza.
Long term health sequelae of this are certainly going to be an interesting topic.
There was a post about what school’s have planned. Well we start back 10/08 and so far nothing
When I go back on 1st September, we have year groups in bubbles so separated for lunch and break, offset arrival times etc and 7&8 taught in different parts of school, year 9,10 &11 move around but in a more limited manner. Teachers will be running around like blue arsed flies getting to all lessons in different classrooms. No practicals for science.
What do folk think will happen in schools in the new academic year? I’m torn – at the end of term school was saying ‘all aboard for normal classes after the holidays’ which is (as I understand it) the government line, but I’m struggling a bit to see how this will work if parents/teachers/children still need to self isolate for two weeks if have been around anyone with symptoms? I suppose I still envisage a need for online learning, but haven’t seen this talked about much? If anyone has any links I could check out they’d be appreciated!
I think headteachers have been abandoned to figure it out on their own. One local school is saying all back in full time, whilst my kids school are planning on 2 days a week face to face in classes of 15, three days a week for 6 hours of home based lessons (3 days a week in school for years 11,12,13). Had a request to buy a Kindle to replace all the shared textbooks, reusable masks mandatory for all, no mixing between year groups (so separate toilets, classrooms etc), no canteen facilities etc.
The plan is that the online learning can be scaled up (for groups or for the whole school) if there is an outbreak.
A local Stockport councillor has put up a notice to say, there has been an increase in C19 cases in our area. Some of these are from a care home. The others mostly from young adults aged 18 - 24.
I know of a 17 year old that had the virus, was quite ill for 2 weeks.
The plan is that the online learning can be scaled up (for groups or for the whole school) if there is an outbreak.
This is EXACTLY the approach that schools should be taking. They are going against the government messaging though… [ I suspect parents will be thanking them for doing so before the next school year is over ]
I was briefly pleased about Johnson admitting that we (may have) acted too late and too haphazardly at a time when decisive action was needed that could have saved thousands of lives… because I thought that might make future actions more forthcoming… but this jolted me back into being more than unimpressed with his comments…
https://twitter.com/oxforddiplomat/status/1286970373989376001?s=21
Slightly different plot this week for mortality. Here is the ratio of mortality rate to historic 10-year baseline rates. No evidence of "below the mean" mortality so far - they would NOT have died anyway is the message. We shall see how things progress into the coming influenza season. Of note, London is a clear outlier on the way up and down. I suspect public transport and ethnicity as reasons. Very slight excess mortality in East and West Midlands. Leicester, anyone?
The not locking down thing is not true. Vallance mis-spoke when he said SAGE advised this on the 16th or 18th March. This is obvious from looking at the SAGE minutes (and the consistent messaging that all this group of scientists and all of the politicians were giving at that time).
Not that I'm defending Johnson and the govt on all matters, but on the specific details of the lockdown, they followed SAGE advice promptly and to the letter. Several SAGE members have tried to muddy the waters on this as they know they ****ed up horribly and are trying to dodge the blame.
that all this group of scientists
Yes but not all scientists 🙂 . I think there is an inherent inertia as to how fast policy is actioned. A bit squeaky bum time for some of SAGE, perhaps.
Given that so many of the subsequent deaths were nursing home related, I'm not sure the blanket "two doubling times earlier and a quarter of the deaths", is really valid, but I do believe lives might have been saved. Pandemics have always been government's most significant threat. Had Boris understood this better, perhaps things would have been different.
I was deliberately careful with my words. A bit of a clique, it seems. They appeared to be more focussed on fending off outsiders than examining the argument (eg Edmunds on Channel 4 being just one prime example). The buck always stops with the Govt of course, which did plenty else wrong, and continues to do so to this day.
Agree estimating the precise consequences of locking down earlier is a rather approximate and relies on a lot of assumptions. However with a smaller epidemic it wouldn't have been necessary to send infected elderly people into care homes in the first place, nor refuse them proper treatment when they fell ill, and there wouldn't have been such a shortage of PPE either.
Don't disagree with any of those points. Including the cliquishness. I also think that SPI-M/SAGE had an over-reliance on modelling and an under-appreciation of simple statistical data analysis. I used to be more in the former camp, but am definitely in the latter now. There is now no shortage of data for analysis.
People are also forgetting that when ramping up for the spike, seriously ill patients such as stroke victims, were prematurely discharged back into the community to free up beds for incoming CV19 patients. These people did not have CV19 but they were sent out into a world where it was present without any mitigation measures.
This seems to have been lost in the "noise" and I've not seen any detail on the impact of this. When sending elderly/very sick/vulnerable people back to multi-generational housing it's very dangerous.
In the panic to free up beds for the tsunami of CV19 cases, it seems that compassion and empathy went out of the window.
Regarding models vs data, I've long been a fan of both: the best model in the world still needs to be adequately calibrated/initialised (as it will have many uncertain parameters), and the very simplest fitted models can often give very useful forecasts - though could not have estimated subtle things like the effects of shutting schools, for example.
more focussed on fending off outsiders
We’re forgetting that their advice, and even who was involved in writing it, was fully hidden from us at the time. It was full on bunker mentality, with Cummings being the only person in both the Sage and Cabinet office bunkers (and the Cobra one come to think of it)… I care not which bunker made the wrong call… it all comes down to Cummings calling the shots, while Johnson stayed away from it all… the absent PM leaving the country in the hands of a sociopath unwilling to learn from what was going on in other countries, or from anyone he doesn’t have the power to hire and fire personally himself.
