Forum menu
Are the scientists that appear on the national TV channels reliable?
Some of the repeat guests have been wrong about everything for a year, but still get booked. I’m afraid you need to look at their track records yourself to decide which ones are reliable… the TV channels vet for interestingness and availability… not for the reliability of information provided.
Kelvin - that's really interesting. I've been following Chris Smith (the naked scientist) and I quite like Jason Leitch (I think he's the Scottish equivalent of our English health minsiter. They both seem really genuine and know their stuff.
Where as others will hear Sunetra Gupta on yet another TV news broadcast and think, “that’s a reasonable alternative view of this”, despite being wrong so often as regards current levels of community immunity and the protection that affords us.
The video where Campbell goes into the enduring immunity of SARS1 survivors to covid-19 is, I’m pretty sure, this one:
But do you have a link to a study or similar? I’m not wading through opinion pieces on YouTube, if there’s evidence for SARS1 exposure giving immunity to this coronavirus, rather than just a reasonable assumption/hunch, I’d like to read it. It could be used to infer that our worldwide vaccine rollouts over the next 18 months will help protect us from future novel coronavirus, and that would be something positive to take from all this.
In all honestly, I’d prefer to hear modest, even slightly pessimistic assessments which are proven to be so, rather than false optimism that gets dashed within weeks.
Anyone who has worked in retail or sales will know of the saying " Under-promise, Over-deliver." It's exactly what the govt need to be doing right now. Tell us they may be able to open up the pubs by the end of May then when they are able to open a week or two earlier everyone's happy. Tell us they'll be open by Easter but then have to delay it until May bank holiday and everyone will be annoyed and that will lead to people doing their own thing as the timescales are unreliable.
Are the scientists that appear on the national TV channels reliable?
I've been mostly thinking that Devi Shridar and Christina Pagel sound like they are talking sense. Probably other people have a different take?
Just had my (Pfizer) jab - 61 and no specific health issues, so I'm guessing that in this part of London they ran out of old people to vaccinate?
But do you have a link to a study or similar? I’m not wading through opinion pieces on YouTube
There are links to his sources below the video.
Edit: I can't remember whether he says that there is actual cross immunity or whether it's simply that SARS-1 survivors were still demonstrating T-Cell response 17 years after initial infection with the inference that Cocvid-19 may do similar. Presumably the effectiveness of that against reinfection is complex and may be rendered irrelevant by variations.
I’ve been mostly thinking that Devi Shridar and Christina Pagel sound like they are talking sense.
I agree entirely. But only after looking into both of them and the evidence they cite. Others, repeatedly wrong and misusing evidence (in my opinion), appear just as often, and people will often pick and choose who to listen to based on what fits their views and hopes. This is where the media are falling us... they get experts on to reflect "balance", ignoring that they are re-inviting guests on even if they have not only been proven wrong, but refuse to reflect on where they have been wrong and amend their "opinion" accordingly.
There are links to his sources below the video.
I skimmed those, and could only find what I'd read elsewhere, that sars-cov-1 exposure resulted in short longevity of an antibody response, and long term Tcell response. Many people think/hope that the Tcell response would offer protection for sars-cov-2... but I still haven't seen a single study showing that is the case. And I'd love to, as it could well suggest that a successful worldwide response to sars-cov-2 will help us avoid a future pandemic caused by the next similar naval coronavirus.
Particularly as pubs in April seems to be outdoors?
I'm happy with that if they extend no smoking to the beer gardens.
God... a decent pint or two... with people we don't live with.. in a beer garden... can we hope?!?! Dream?!?!
🤞🏻
the next similar naval coronavirus
I meant "novel", of course.
🛳🚢
I found Devi Shridar actually a bit of a doommonger in the early days, she has lightened up considerably now, maybe somebody had a word.
I guess it’s a bit like asking a pilot their opinion on how to run an airline...
I found Devi Shridar actually a bit of a doommonger in the early days
Interesting.
Check out this article from March 2020... bang on the money if you ask me...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/23/britain-covid-19-head-start-squandered
It was probably from watching her interviews on the TV, tbh.
Was it part of a "balanced" package, with someone being all up beat about how everything would be over by the summer (2020) and that half us were already immune and that would result in everything being in hand just around the corner? Hard not to sound like a "doommonger" when explaining the mistakes we were making early on, and where the dithering, delays, false assumptions and lack of leadership and planning could be taking us (and we now know did).
enduring immunity of SARS1 survivors to covid-19 is, I’m pretty sure, this one:
Our antibody, VIR-7831, was selected from a SARS1 survivor who was infected in 2003. The antibody cell line was taken from a blood draw 10 years later. Whether such levels are protective or just ready for a prime when SARS-CoV2 comes along is another matter. Previous antibodies against the other coronaviruses are cross-reactive but not protective. I posted the Cell paper a few days ago.
Are the scientists that appear on the
national TVSTW channels reliable?
I don't do meeja (work forbids), but I think my track record has been pretty much bang on so far. But then I am not fond of making bold claims early in an absence of solid information. I have also drawn heavily on what is known for other coronaviruses in both animals and humans. @thecaptain has a modelling method, that frankly, puts the PHE to shame. So yes, I think the information here has been reliable.
And for the record, everything I have posted has been using information in the public domain. Those are the rules. But there is a LOT of information in the public domain 🙂
@TiRed, never have questioned your reliability at all. In fact your posts are the only thing keeping me sane at the moment and I’m sure 99.5% of STW would agree.
I can’t remember whether he says that there is actual cross immunity or whether it’s simply that SARS-1 survivors were still demonstrating T-Cell response 17 years after initial infection with the inference that Cocvid-19 may do similar.
A good edit. Yes, lots of people are inferring from long term TCell response for sars1 that the same will be true of patients who have come into contact with sars2. But that is very different to the claim that people exposed to sars1 have protection against sars2… which I’d love to be true (because of what it means in terms of being ready for future coronavirus pandemics) but I don’t think the evidence is there.
Presumably the effectiveness of that against reinfection is complex and may be rendered irrelevant by variations.
That’s the big difference, compared to sars1, isn’t it… the big unknown… as we have enough people playing host to the new virus to allow troubling variations to develop… but so far everything we have to throw at COVID-19 works (even if to a reduced extent) with the variants… and research hasn’t come to a halt… better still will be coming in the next 12 months.
So yes, I think the information here has been reliable
Yes thank you and others for your contributions - this is my first port of call for informed balanced comment.
Presumably the effectiveness of that against reinfection is complex and may be rendered irrelevant by variations.
Reinfection by the four other coronaviruses is common. Timing is about every 24 months in adults (more frequent in children). I really can't see why this new virus will be any different. Severity of reinfection will, naturally, wane with exposure. Vaccination may be useful for priming immunity (and providing first exposure to the spike protein), particularly in the elderly, similar to influenza.
Yearly vaccination. At least for a few years. You’ve been calling that since the start of this thread I think TiRed. Nothing yet suggests you are likely to be wrong. The general public still don’t get that though… do they. Are we (the general public, not those lucky enough to be reading this thread) well served, as regards information and expectation setting? The answer has to be no.
Had my jab a couple of hours or so ago, mine is the Astra Zenica one. I’m 67, and I was very surprised when informed I was eligible and given a time earlier in the week, but on the local tv news last night the numbers of those given a vaccination in the top two age groups was about 99%, so they’re really hitting targets and are able to get going on the 60-70 age group.
So far not even an achy arm, unlike my last flu jab, but it might show up later.
Lots of areas on 65-69 age group currently. Good isn’t it?!?
Kinda interesting. And I imagine the method of calculating is blunt at best.
But the Omni Calculator site now has my estimated vaccination date consistently sooner in Scotland than if I select England.
I'd imagine it's at least partly because they have the percentage of take up higher for England?
I think we need to have a whip round for @TiRed and get him a few beers!
I had some nice news recently hearing a few family members back in NI have received their first jabs. Can't wait to see them soon, whenevee that is, and have a good catch up.
I’d imagine it’s at least partly because they have the percentage of take up higher for England?
The Scottish rate of jabbing has been higher this week than certainly England, and maybe Wales, but this is partly because they have been closing the gap that had developed - still a bit behind, but not by much now England seems to have slowed as some areas seem to be sticking to the upper tier where there are relatively few to vaccinate now the target has been largely met so their rates have dropped. Rates may well take off again next week once the target date is passed.
Had my jab a couple of hours or so ago, mine is the Astra Zenica one. I’m 67, and I was very surprised when informed I was eligible and given a time earlier in the week,
I'm 60 and getting mine on Wednesday in Chester. No underlying conditions that would put me on an at risk list.
My 24 year old daughter had hers this week. She's asthmatic with a seasonal wheeze in spring but nothing serious however she has been prescribed had asthma meds within the past year which might have qualified her
Dr Campbell getting a bit emotional about new study on Vit D. I've been taking it for the past 9 months suggest everyone reading this does the same
Vaccination rates in England seem to have flattened off somewhat.
There are also warnings coming from Scotland that supplies are about to be constrained and that the current rate might drop so I guess any individual projected vaccination date should be viewed with some caution.
Dr Campbell getting a bit emotional about new study on Vit D. I’ve been taking it for the past 9 months suggest everyone reading this does the same
I’m also taking VitD… but those trials he cites don’t support doing so… they are about treating ill people, not as a preventative in well people. Plenty of treatments are of no use if you’re not ill. But as it’s harmless, why not? Especially in the dark months.
Have been taking vit D for the last two winters. Pulls also include zinc and various other good things.
The UK as a whole is doing really well with their vaccination programme.
I don't know if anyone here in the Vaterland who has been jabbed.
News on the Israeli vaccine roll out is interesting.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-results-ins-idUSKBN2AA0MS
The red tops have filled their home pages today with various predictions/leaks.
Schools on March 8th, along with outdoor meet-ups. Pubs in April with no substantial meal required and vaccine passports suggested again.
People may have noted my irritation with the mobs of pensioners ignoring all sensible advice on this side of the channel. The latest group to cause some eye rolling went off to Costa Rica. 20/22 of them tested positive, it's not known where they caught it but given the timing it's most probable they took it with them. Sixteen are still positve and still there, six of them occupying Costa Rican hospital beds of which two are in intensive care. Further comment from me might require moderation so I'll stop there.
Apologies for linking BFM, the nearest thing to the DM we have here.
That Israeli report is interesting but slightly confused me. Severe illness in those vaccinated has dropped by a third, but still struggling to constrain the UK variant, so I guess it's positive news against a challenging background.
If I read it correctly, the news that those vaccinated but infected have less virus to pass on is the real winner as far as reducing transmission and severity. My limited understanding of what I've read has always made me think that viral load must be a key factor in how ill someone gets.
People may have noted my irritation with the mobs of pensioners ignoring all sensible advice on this side of the channel. The latest group to cause some eye rolling went off to Costa Rica. 20/22 of them tested positive.
That doesn't surprise me at all going by the typical pensioner in the uk. Basically they know best, had it worst, no one can tell them what to do. Just a massive sense of entitlement. At the height of the summer lockdown a 75yr old husband and wife (husband has parkinsons) in my street decided to have a street party handing out drinks to who ever walked past.
Among the first fully-vaccinated group there was a 53% reduction in new cases, a 39% decline in hospitalizations and a 31% drop in severe illnesses from mid-January until Feb. 6, said Eran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel.
and importantly in the footnote...
Note: Israel imposed a third lockdown on Dec 27, 2020 and tightened it on Jan 8, 2021
Now take a look at cases, admissions and deaths in the UK over the same period. I am in no doubt that the vaccine will be having an effect. However this is a multivariate problem against a background of a very efficacious intervention (Lockdown). Data published from multiple groups shows that the neutralising titer against the UK strain using vaccine sera is about double - that's not a huge loss of potency (for the SA variant it is six times or more).
The fact is multiple interventions will have an effect, but teasing them apart requires a relaxation of one of them to see the protection afforded by the other. My suspicion is that there will be a rebound (it's a transmissible pathogen), but that deaths will not follow in the same way.
I too am seeing groups of elderly people (maybe not understanding that they can still spread this virus although they've had their first vaccination).
However yesterday we saw large groups of young families walking together and a group of youngsters obviously off to some party, or gathering hauling their bags of booze and snacks, cans of beer in hand. No 2m distancing. This was all at a local beauty spot in -7 windchill temperatures all the ponds and local canals are frozen over. We stupidly thought it would be quiet (rolls eyes).
Yes TiRed and some others on this thread are the people I get my 'need to know information from'. It's been invaluable.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/raves-arent-anti-lockdown-bristol-4985460
https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/10/ravers-deploy-suicide-rigs-as-they-defy-covid-19-lockdown-13570411/
https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/18977065.police-stop-illegal-rave-cardiff-tier-four-lockdown/
And many, many more. But hey, those pensioners eh?
Let’s not do this blaming of age groups again, please.
Exactly.
There's always going to be groups who are pushing the boundaries of appropriate. I don't think it's an age thing. It's more a case of big headlines but small numbers? Although it only takes ones super spreader event.
Edukator - I guess from numbers in hospital those pensioners had not been vaccinated?
Also have to ask, were their actions illegal in France and/or Costa Rica?
The bawbag maijd nawazz is back on his soapbox on lbc, bigging up the CRG (covid/rabid brexiteers with tiny dicks), I'm banned from the program for calling him a self publicising **** on air so perhaps someone else would like to call him up to express similar
See Raab is playing the bad doomladen politician so Boris can been seen to save the day.
That doesn’t surprise me at all going by the typical pensioner in the uk. Basically they know best, had it worst, no one can tell them what to do. Just a massive sense of entitlement. At the height of the summer lockdown a 75yr old husband and wife (husband has parkinsons) in my street decided to have a street party handing out drinks to who ever walked past.
Elderly neighbours down the road have restarted their book club because they've all had a vaccination.
That doesn’t surprise me at all going by "the typical pensioner in the uk.. Basically they know best, had it worst, no one can tell them what to do. Just a massive sense of entitlement. At the height of the summer lockdown a 75yr old husband and wife (husband has parkinsons) in my street decided to have a street party handing out drinks to who ever walked past.
Where do you want to stop with this type of generalisation?
Shall I start to generalise on " the typical 21 to 30s" or " the typical 31 to 40s" etc,etc
Give it a rest.
The more appropriate word would be "Some".
In answer to questions: nothing illegal, given the dates highly unlikely to have been vaccinated, and given the dates no PCR test was required to travel. Just becuase there's nothing to legally stop you doing something doesn't mean you should. Suicide is perfectly legal here.
The people at all those raves you linked were between 30 and 150 times less likely to require hospital treatment in the event of catching the virus, Scotroutes.
It's the virus that is ageist, society's approach to dealing with it is too, vaccinating none of the youngest and all of the oldest (who wish to be).
People need to take their own age into consideration when indulging in the higher risk activities still possible legally, because morally some of them aren't. Being unmasked in a large group of your non-vaccinated peers when you are old is not illegal here but it flys in the face of everything everybody in society who does give a shit is trying to achieve.
The people at all those raves you linked were between 30 and 150 times less likely to require hospital treatment in the event of catching the virus, Scotroutes.
Where to start?
Ach, **** it. Cannae be arsed dealing with this shit.
Hey kids, can't we play nicely?
There are people across all the age groups being selfish arseholes.
Jonathan Ashworth being very unhelpful with his “this must be the last lockdown” call. The government needs the flexibility to respond to what happens as we go through the next 12 months. Making it politically harder for the government to reintroduce controls in the face of new variants, or high levels of infection while vaccine rollout is ongoing, really isn’t welcome.
Edukator : The people at all those raves you linked were between 30 and 150 times less likely to require hospital treatment in the event of catching the virus, Scotroutes.
Perhaps so but what about the consequences of those selfish pricks coming into contact and passing on the virus with those who are not so fortunate?.
Dunno if it’s been covered but there is a somewhat obvious correlation between those that pushed for Brexit and the Covid Recovery Group
If we don't have a lock down next winter I'll be bloody surprised. That might, might be the last one. Variants allowing.
That's the point isn't it, as said, there are still so many unknowns that to rule out another lockdown is insane and deeply misleading to the public. **** the CRG, one and all.😐
To clarify, no I don't like them either! No one in this thread does. I accept they have been necessary though and might be again.
Good isn’t it?!?
Absolutely! The queue yesterday seemed to be like an endless conveyor belt of people, I got to the surgery about 30 minutes early, asked the person checking temperatures if that mattered, she said that if I joined the end of the queue then, I’d probably get on on time, and she was right, I got my jab at the booked time almost to the minute.
It was very well organised, and running very smoothly, credit to the whole team involved.
I’ve not noticed any significant aching or tenderness to my arm, quite different to my last flu jab, which was very tender and uncomfortable for several days.
Some things I’ve read seem to show some concern that a Covid jab may become a once a year necessity, but so what, it’s become a fact of life that you get a flu jab every year, so why should it be any more of an imposition getting a Covid jab to protect against something that’s more dangerous?
There’s some early research that shows there might be a chance that a panCorona jab may be possible, that could prove effective against Corona viruses in general; hurrah, finally a cure for the common cold in its variations!
If we don’t have a lock down next winter I’ll be bloody surprised. That might, might be the last one. Variants allowing.
That’s the point isn’t it, as said, there are still so many unknowns that to rule out another lockdown is insane and deeply misleading to the public. **** the CRG, one and all.😐
Absolutely. I have noticed that anything to do with the Tory backbenchers that is collectively called a Research Group (ERG, CRG) only has one interest to consider: theirs. If the CRG say they need to declare this lockdown as the last one then we should just do the opposite.
That’s the point isn’t it, as said, there are still so many unknowns that to rule out another lockdown is insane and deeply misleading to the public. **** the CRG, one and all.
Agreed, but Jonathan Ashworth is in the Labour shadow cabinet.
kelvin
Agreed, but Jonathan Ashworth is in the Labour shadow cabinet.
Yep, pretty amazing really. I'm really not sure which way Labour are heading these days and not just on the Covid response. They are lagging in the poles agsin... after 100k+ lives have been taken in party due to this governments incredible ineptitude. Amazing really. All forgotten because of the great vaccine roll out. (Good bless the NHS and all who sail in her, you are everybody's valentine this year.)
The lives taken and families torn apart already flowing into recent history.
Antipodean update:
Victoria have reported only one new locally acquired case in the last 24 hours - apparently she attended a family gathering with somebody linked to the new airport cluster. She was one of some 6,000 people identified by contract tracers as "close contacts" of those known to be infected. Interestingly, she was/is completely asymptomatic, and has had 4 tests over the weekend that have returned both weak positive and weak negative tests, so she has been declared positive.
Meanwhile, Auckland (Yes IN NEW ZEALAND errrhmergerd!) has had 3 new cases - and so has locked down hard from Sunday night (with the rest of NZ in "medium" lockdown). Apparently all 3 cases are in one family - with the mum working at an airline related business, so it looks like that might be how it got in, but they are trying to figure that out right now. Australia has responded by re-instating the mandatory 14 day quarantine for NZ arrivals into Aus - the only country who's arrivals didn't need to quarantine on arrival.
NSW have now hit 28 days without any locally acquired infections - mask rules have been relaxed - you only need one for public transport now I think. Happy days.
Both NZ and Australia are due to receive the first Pfizer vaccine shipments this week I think.
It should be interesting for the UK too - running a quarantine system is HARD, and even with one that's been running for almost a year, with continuous improvements and "upgrades", and with (relatively) tiny arrival numbers..... you can't be asleep at the wheel for a second.
People with learning disabilities have been given do not resuscitate orders during the second wave of the pandemic, in spite of widespread condemnation of the practice last year and an urgent investigation by the care watchdog.
^ hmmmmmmmmm, very disturbing if true
However, not sure how helpful the term "learning disability" is in this context - I would imagine that's an extremely broad population. I suspect that underlying this is the (extremely uncomfortable) truth that people with specific concurrent medical conditions are being flagged as DNR - as they were in Italy when their hospitals became completely over-run. Hard choices had to be made about who to choose to (try to save) and who to let die. Reading the accounts of those doctors making those choices scared the hell out of me, and is what "flattening the curve" is all about.
Arbitrarily assigning DNR status to somebody with learning difficulties is obviously barbaric, and needs to be urgently addressed... but I suspect that there's more to it than that.
Perhaps so but what about the consequences of those selfish pricks coming into contact and passing on the virus with those who are not so fortunate?.
Well they won't if those who are not so fortunate look after themselves. The retired don't need to come into contact with anyone in this technological age and certainy not the rave clan. I may have mentioned that junior is a DJ and producer and very much part of his generation. He plays by the rules and didn't go to the rave in Rennes despite being only a few kms away at the time. But his generation are are lot less selfish than you claim, they don't go hugging their grand parents, they don't go to raves if they are key workers. They are a lot more socially responsible than you give them credit for.
He's self-isolated before coming to see us but still nearly got caught out once - because his colleague's family went to a funeral. Raves are banned, funerals are not, and you don't have journalists and gendarmes counting people at funerals and mass testing them before they are allowed home.
The British media made a fuss about 2500 people at a rave in Rennes. You no doubt remember all the fuss, well how many tested positve at the mass testing before they were aloowed to go home? Zero. A big fat zero. You know how many have tested positive after religious services since the start of the pandemic here: hundreds, thousands and the numbers continue to rise, and the church goers fall into age categories that fill hospital beds. How many articles in the press have you read demonising them.
Some on this thread wish to brush the age issue under the carpet and avoid intergenerational comflict. In which case the older generation need to take some responsibility for their own health and stop demonising the young who have made only a tiny contribution to filling hospital beds which is what has brought the economy to a crawl.
Bad flu years are deadly but they don't cause economic misery because they don't over load the hospitals. The problem with theis virus is that overflowing hospitials make it so visible. The 1969 flu season killed 30 000 in France, maybe more as they didn't have the equivalent of a PCR test to check the victims. Measures taken? Next to nothing.
I could go out with my MTB club of 45-65 year olds, I don't, I'm in an age group that could end up taking a hospital bed.
I could meet meet up for music practice with mates of the same age group, we've decided not to, we're old enough to be vulnerable.
But the restrictions on the younger generation, turning halls of residence into prisons etc. I find totally over the top.
The virus is ageist, the virus discriminates, and those it spares are disciminated against in the press.
If ravers who are unlikely ever to need a hopital bed if they catch the virus are "selfish pricks", how do you describe 30 old people at a funeral who will need half a dozen hospital beds if they all catch the virus?
I expect further outrage from the 58 to 75 year olds on this forum, think before you type, or ban me you misearble old mod... 😉
Bad flu years do fill the hospital beds, we've had a few here in recent years but the media weren't interested as it didn't involve Brexit, celebrities or breasts.
"Fill", but I said "overload/overflow". The bad flu years don't have doctors talking about triage on the news, queues of ambulances, TGVs converted to transfer patients, people lying dead in hospital corridors, Nightigale hopitals, Peruvians selling oxygen bottles in the street to the highest bidder.
It's been a media festival that the public and governments haven't been able to ignore. everyone has an opinion (me included) everyone feels involved. Everyone is involved. Masks in pockets when they're not on our faces, 42km on the balcony, calculating how far we can walk and still get back before curfew.
Extreme images and extreme reactions.
42km on the balcony,
What are you talking about?
House arrest in France, walking 42km on a small balcony?
People getting exercise when they weren't allowed to leave their homes?
An Italian ran a marathon 42km on his balcony during the Italian lockdown, it made the news here along with various other confinement exploits. TF1 in particular tried/tries to show some lighthearted moments to counter the general morosity. They were at Beille recently where there haven't been so many people X-C sking since the 80s. Talking of which, it's sunny out, ski time.
I'm getting really tired of the age argument.
We often see news articles about people breaking the restrictions on numbers at funerals, like we do for weddings, and house parties, and raves.
Being a selfish/careless idiot is not an age specific problem so can we please acknowledge it and move on now.
The British media made a fuss about 2500 people at a rave in Rennes. You no doubt remember all the fuss, well how many tested positve at the mass testing before they were aloowed to go home? Zero. A big fat zero
If you are trying to imply that young people don’t catch and transmit the virus then you are, of course, wrong. If you believe that it is easy to isolate one age group from interaction from all the others then I’m afraid that the reality of it is that you are wrong, again.
The retired don’t need to come into contact with anyone in this technological age
Am I reading that right?
*backs quietly out of the thread having seen edukator back in the room*
*walks into thread, wonders where Matt is off to, looks around and follows Matt*
Which reminds me.... when is that ignore member button arriving?
You don't have to agree with all of what Edukator says, but few would argue that whilst the virus disproportionately affects the old, the measures to contain it have disproportionately affected the young.
I personally think a there needs to be a discussion at some point around how the elderly/vulnerable can be kept safe whilst allowing the groups of people that are least affected to get on with their lives. That to me seems like a reasonably sensible thing to do.
I don't think we should be attacking certain groups, but again, people do need to take some personal responsibility. If you are in a vulnerable group should you be more careful? Yes, you should. I personally see more groups of older folk gathering in the park than younger folk, that's not good IMO, that's not weighing up the risks and making good decisions. If they were groups of younger folks I'd have less of an issue as the risk to them is so much less.
I personally think a there needs to be a discussion at some point around how the elderly/vulnerable can be kept safe whilst allowing the groups of people that are least affected to get on with their lives.
Its the elephant in the room.
The discussion we should be having, but nobody wants to because its uncomfortable.
If you are in a vulnerable group should you be more careful? Yes, you should.
Of the same opinion.
If we have a group of people who are severely allergic to nuts, do we remove nuts completely from society?
No.
We put in place measures to protect those people, but allow the rest of the population to live their lives as normal as possible
Exactly as lunge says.
Everyone should be being careful irrespective of age or risk. But those at risk should at least be aware that they beat some responsibility for their own safety too.
We should be protecting the most vulnerable and we are at the moment. It remains to be seen what happens when we start opening up.
But there will be issues if we get lots of stories of people who have had the vaccine (whatever age) start clearing off on holiday while the majority have no chance of it. At that point restrictions might as well be over as a fair number of people will just get pissed off
If the variants of interest are in the community (they are) and contact restrictions are relaxed (they will be), then expect spread of the new variants. Is this serious? Personally I am not filled with the doom of others. Certainly the E484K mutation of the SA strain is of interest - it renders binding of some antibodies (including Lilly's banlanivimab) ineffectual. As in totally non-functional. But human immune systems produce MANY antibodies of ALL different effectiveness from potent to impotent. Pharma chose the low-hanging most potent antibodies first (and they have been dosing two as a cocktail to mitigate resistance to one).
Data from sera from the vaccinated (mainly Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech to be fair) shows a reduction in titer - you need about 6x as much antibody to neutralize the SA strain as the first strain, and about 2x as much for the UK strain. Not 60x, not 600x and not 6000x! The clinical studies of the vaccines in SA have not shown complete failure - they showed significant reduction in asymptomatic protection - so some symptoms but no serious disease and hospitalizations. This is very good news(TM).
So I predict further vaccine coverage, an increase in SA E484K strain as we relax constraints, but steady or falling hospitalizations as coverage increases, in line with falling deaths, notably in the elderly.
[tl:dr] Immune responses from vaccines against the newer strains of concern may lead to some symptoms, but are likely to be good enough to protect against serious disease, and that is what matters most.
This thread is a lot better when we're not tossing around accusations at arbitrarily decided groups of people. Rule 1 for everyone.
This is an interesting improvement on treatment, 60% reduction in death and significant reduction in icu use from a vitamin 6 treatment for kidney issues
https://www.scotsman.com/read-this/using-vitamin-d-treat-covid-patients-can-reduce-death-60-new-study-finds-3134989
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3771318#
But it is an amazing improvement on survival and even keeping people out of intensive care.
Immune responses from vaccines against the newer strains of concern may lead to some symptoms, but are likely to be good enough to protect against serious disease, and that is what matters most.
Could you give give us a definition of "protect against serious disease" to fit with that summary...? Do you just mean avoid hospitalisation, or avoid long term ill health?
This is an interesting improvement on treatment
Yes. Successful Calcifediol treatment trials were covered on page 650. I'm unconvinced that the journalists and commentators taking it as proof of the efficacy of pre-emptively taking VitD are right... but taking VitD in the winter is useful and harmless anyway... so crack on.
Its the elephant in the room.
The discussion we should be having, but nobody wants to because its uncomfortable.
It's been discussed at length... and the government have rightly rejected it as it is bobbins... those most at risk can not be entirely cut off from the rest of society... it is fantasy/fallacy. Protecting them with prioritisation in the vaccine roll out makes far more sense. And all of us trying to keep the virus under control while that is ongoing is effective.