Masks would cut down the flu cold / transmission? It may only have a small containment effect on Covid but if it's reducing transmission of the other viruses we get in winter it's taking the pressure off the system.
The outlook is grim, isn’t it? What’s the point or hanging around. Life is fairly shit these days (relatively speaking) and with mass redundancies and more economic damage, there’s absolutely nothing to look forward too. I have enough money to just about live for 2 months if I lost my job. After that, I’d be screwed.
The outlook is grim, isn’t it?
No i don't believe it is actually. I do think we have a serious socio-economic shock that will take perhaps 18mo to two years to get over. But i am a firm believer in science and what it can deliver. Life expectancy for HIV patients is now back to normal. It was a death sentence. Pandemics have always been the most feared shock to societies. This one is not great economically, but it honestly could be much much worse.
Much much worse, as in figures similar to 1918? The world is such a different place to what it was then. I just fear the worse for everything at the minute. I’m glad you feel positive and that science has the answers. I’m certainly not one of them. The economic impact is yet to be felt at its worst. I suffer immensely in winter, is one is going to be grim.
@TiRed just to say thank you for your contributions. I won’t pretend to understand all of them, but very grateful for your perspective and data based realism.
We were due an economic shock. A lot of retail was already struggling. The oil industry is on its way out. The automotive industry on wafer thin margins. I was already wondering how the adjustments were going to play out. Coronavirus has been a godsend for dodgy businesses that needed to restructure / streamline / stop. Rather than letting things gradually slip they’ve had to take stock and rethink.
Much much worse, as in figures similar to 1918?
SARS-COV1 which broke out in 2003 had a mortality of 10% of All cases. MERS which came along 10 years later killed about a third of people infected. Both viruses were not easily transmitted, so absolute numbers were fortunately very low. SARS-COV-2 is about as transmissible As influenza, and about as pathogenic too (mercifully not like SARS-COV1). The principal difference to influenza is we have little or no past immunity and no effective treatments. Yet. We will. That is why i am optimistic. In 1918 it was a broadly similar stuation, although the elderly had some protection from their past infections, but the young did not.
I know the figures from back then vary, from 20-50mil dead. We’re a long way off that with a population 3 times the size. Frightening, what might be.
Anything any of us can do to help Dazh? Either as regards getting back, or your situation when you return? Ask on here, people will help if they can.
but there simply was not the testing capacity to manage the situation.
Kinda true, but the.molton Keynes testing centre has hundreds? of QPCR machines they took from universities & institutes around the country
Apart from the primers which can be synthesized very cheaply & quickly within the UK we had the capacity to run 1000s of tests a week
Instead the machines moved to MK & sat idle for a month.
Could've made a huge difference in care homes & hospitals
With the benefit of hindsight a decentralised approach to testing could have given us a better chance
Ahh I wonder if the Quarantine hokey kokeys just started 🙂
Dictated by choice of ministers holiday destination.
The news seems to have a few people complaining about the arrival of restrictions for people coming in from Spain. Makes a change from concerns we didn't lock down quick enough. Honestly I'm struggling to grasp how people didn't factor in the potential risk of restrictions coming in rapidly. Slightly more baffling is how the government doesn't seem to have a plan for disruption to employment / loss of income it's not like there hasn't been enough time for this one.
Anything any of us can do to help Dazh?
Thanks but it’s all fine. Main risk is the return flights being cancelled but that’s no big deal as we have a house we can stay in indefinitely If it comes to it.
Apart from the primers which can be synthesized very cheaply & quickly
Actually, I think it was polymerase that was in shorter supply. We supplied a lot of the machines and staff to that centre. Think they are still at it.
The German approach to healthcare appears to have had a better outcome. It’s not really for want of spending (although they do spend more). Sadly, I think the NHS and PHE have been found wanting this isn’t surprising given a system running at 90+% capacity and then expected to expand immediately to accommodate an outbreak.
I think the NHS and PHE
…the pausing and centralising of testing and contact tracing were government decisions, not arm length ones. Yes, the NHS and PHE will be copping a fair share of the blame… but the overarching strategy they had to work to came from Cummings ultimately.
… as we have a house we can stay in indefinitely If it comes to it.
That’s good… that avoids any real drama for you all. Hope you can make the most of however long you end up over there.
The news seems to have a few people complaining about the arrival of restrictions for people coming in from Spain. Makes a change from concerns we didn’t lock down quick enough. Honestly I’m struggling to grasp how people didn’t factor in the potential risk of restrictions coming in rapidly. Slightly more baffling is how the government doesn’t seem to have a plan for disruption to employment / loss of income it’s not like there hasn’t been enough time for this one.
they probably really want to bring in a "pay for a test pass" on this. though I think most people will just ignore it, no ones going to check up on you. As with going to the pub/restaurant they failed to hilite the small print "doing so runs the risk of 2 weeks self isolation".
though I think most people will just ignore it, no ones going to check up on you.
Of course people will ignore it, because people will use their own common sense to come to the conclusion that they are no more likely to be exposed to covid in Spain than in the UK. If they expect people to adhere to the restrictions they need to demonstrate a clear and present danger and in this case they simply haven't done that. The also need to ensure people don't suffer financially by sticking to the rules, and they haven't done that either.
Of course people will ignore it, because people will use their own common sense to come to the conclusion that they are no more likely to be exposed to covid in Spain than in the UK.
I think anyone cramming on a plane shoulder to shoulder with 200+ people for 3hrs then spending 2 weeks drinking/eating in bars and then finishing off with another 3hrs up in the sky in a Covid bioreactor is probably more likely to be infected than someone who thinks it’s probably best to stay at home during a global pandemic.
Yeah, but it's not what you think that matters. The ones deciding whether to obey the law are the ones who thought it was a good idea to go cramming on a plane shoulder to shoulder with 200+ people for 3hrs then spending 2 weeks drinking/eating in bars and then finishing off with another 3hrs up in the sky in a Covid bioreactor!
The German approach is highly variable. We spent a week in Berlin where down Sonnenallee you wouldn't have known there was a Pandemic whislt in the centre masks were the norm. Guess where the clusters are? One campsite was frighteningly overcrowded and pretty much mask free, we went to a hotel instead. Expect cases to rise.
Same in France, more masks equal less clusters. Expect cases to rise thanks to alcohol fueled tourists spreading their germs. Guess where the pissed up idiots puking up everywhere last night were from?
Of course people will ignore it, because people will use their own common sense to come to the conclusion that they are no more likely to be exposed to covid in Spain than in the UK. If they expect people to adhere to the restrictions they need to demonstrate a clear and present danger and in this case they simply haven’t done that. The also need to ensure people don’t suffer financially by sticking to the rules, and they haven’t done that either.
Weren't you one of the people earlier in the thread who was so vocal against those taking the piss during initial lock down? Yet now you say the public can use common sense to make their own decisions?
Whilst I have sympathy for your situation, it was made abundently clear that travel restrictions could be changed at any time, so you must have kniw it was a risk to go out tjere.
Yet now you say the public can use common sense to make their own decisions?
He’s gone full Cummings. Never go full Cummings.
The also need to ensure people don’t suffer financially by sticking to the rules, and they haven’t done that either.
You have to agree with this though, no? Just like local lock downs… if we expect people to adhere to them without an income, many can’t or won’t be able to.
I think we've come a long way since February in terms of knowing how the virus is transmitted and how to avoid getting it. In February we were told masks were pointless and to wash our hands. Then there were the first reports that aerosols and not just droplets could spread the virus and masks were effective at reducing the load to below minimum infective dose if everybody wore them and stayed a reasonable distance apart indoors.
I'm back from a four-country road trip I wouldn't have done in March - but I decided not to fly. I did use trams and busses though, they weren't crowded, I didn't stand next to any one person for long. I avoided crowds even if it meant staying in a more expensive hotel.
So I'm in the "common sense" party. It's just that some people have no common sense and common sense needs to be legislated. I was pleased to see some municipalites insisting on masks even outdoors in market and on crowded sea fronts.
My slow recovery from feeling unusally bad with my asthma in March and Madame's symptoms mean I'm 50/50 on having had it. That doesn't mean I'm going to ease up on caution, if only because every person who doesn't play the game encourages others to ignore the "common sense" advice.
if we expect people to adhere to them without an income, many can’t or won’t be able to.
Ah. Off you go on holiday. The government will pay you for the 2 weeks self-isolation on your return. And make sure your employer doesn't go under on account of there being no staff.
It seems obvious to me that if the govt wants people to self-isolate, it has to provide support. For better or worse, many people can't just sit on their arses for a fortnight with no work.
If the government mandates you stay at home, and your job can’t be done from home… yes they should offer financial support, irrelevant of where you take your holiday.
TF1 has announced that the place you’re most likely to catch Covid is at work. If I had it then I caught it from Madame who caught it from her teacher coleague who caught it from… ?
wtf? flying to spain was optional you know!? while spain may be very keen for you to go there, are you really proposing that the taxpayer underwrite the risks if you do, and then have to isolate for 2 weeks?
If teh government didn't want to pay for the potential quatorzaines it could have simply banned lesure travel out of the UK. It didn't to help the tour operators (which I don't contest). If you help one you help the other.
personal responsibility entirely optional then?
i've got three weeks off in august. guess where i'm going? nowhere.
i mean, a week in france shredding the gnar would be lovely, and i'd actually hoped to go twice this year, but there's this nasty bug going about, that means i might have to self quarantine for 2 weeks when i get back...
So, Del, you are worried about going to a place where the virus is circulating less and the natives are taking more care. To get there you can sit in your own car and the front deck of a ferry with nothing but fresh salt sea air. When you get there you'll find all the accomodation is Covid savey and the tables on the restaurant terraces are well spaced. Go inside anywhere and people will be masked.
Go shred some gnar, the biggest risk will be a stack on the bike.
But it's my human rights to have a foreign holiday you know!
personal responsibility entirely optional then?
If the government is mandating that you don’t go to work, then where does personal responsibility come into it? Why is it relevant that it’s down to travel, leisure or work… contact tracing… local lock down… quarantine after travel… if you’re encouraged to get back to normal by the government, and as a result of doing so you’re later told to stay at home, you and/or your employer should be helped by the government. Plenty of people would be sunk by 2 weeks unpaid leave.
no way i can get behind state sponsored extension of your holiday by two weeks.
its a personal risk, those who are risk averse can consider paying for insurance...
I knew there was potential to get locked down properly in Spain and made arrangements to be able to work there if necessary, sudden (un)expected quarantine on return - if i dont have two weeks food here, im sure i will work out online supermarket shopping before i starve.
oh and great work up there by Edukator, top trolling, some mask nonsense, supported by a multi country road trip culminating in pledging allegiance to the common sense party. 5*s
It is not an extension of your holiday, it is the government telling you to stay at home and not go to work. You will not get insurance for the government telling you to stay at home.
So, Del, you are worried about going to a place where the virus is circulating less and the natives are taking more care.
no - i'm not worried in the slightest. simple fact is i don't need to travel to france, so i'm not going to. nor do i expect the government to underwrite anyone else who chooses to. you'll note they haven't said they would, either.
i was talking to a head teacher friend of mine a couple of weeks ago, who'd pointed out to her staff that if they chose to holiday overseas and ended up stuck or having to quarantine, they wouldn't be getting paid. apparently there were some long faces.
bloody hell. 2 months ago i was being berated for loading my dogs in to the car and travelling 15 minutes up the road to a completely deserted forest to walk them...
Govt has already underwritten a shedload of furlough costs. The whole point of govt is to spread and share risks for the benefit of society as a whole. If it's not going to do that, it might as well not exist.
No trolling, if I were trolling I'd ask why people are talking about "quarantine" when it's only 14 days. I agree with Kelvin (sorry Kelvn, I know you don't like it whan I agree with you), if the government encourages you to do something because of the economic benefits it should also provide a safety net.
The lockdown took the pressure off the hospitals and gave time to both individuals and business to prepare for the post lockdown realities. Everyone has a mask, nearly every business I've been into (well over a hundred in the last three weeks) has plexiglass and all but a few had hand cleaner. The swimming pools even more sophisticated systems and everone is registered for tracing - as I was in all accomodation, all museums and visits, bars/restaurants (in Germany)... .
This is the post lockdown Covid world, on the whole it's working and would work even better were it not for the minority of black sheep who don't take it seriously. I can even sympathise with the black sheep who are often young and fit enough not to feel personally concerned by the virus.
And who knows, some of those black sheep may be people who've already had the virus and think "**** this, I'm already having enough trouble breathing post virus without wearing this ****ing mask when I'm no risk to anyone and no longer at risk". So far I'm resisting the temptation. How do you feel about it TiRed? You've definitely had it and yet you have to take all the personally pointless precautions too.
bloody hell. 2 months ago i was being berated for loading my dogs in to the car and travelling 15 minutes up the road to a completely deserted forest to walk them…
But not by the people posting here now.
you've checked that?
i sure as hell CBA.
No I haven't checked and sure as hell CBA either. There were a number of flaming threads and the core of posters on this thread were pretty moderate as I recall.
I’ll be holidaying at home. Son2 is off to Ireland to study he will be spending His first 14 days in isolation when he gets there. He could fly to Belfast and catch the train. But that’s not playing by the spirit of the rules. I’m investigating whether a day return flight to Dublin is allowed in the rules to help with his things. If not, he’ll be on his own.
I spend a lot of time looking at the rules and the evidence. They don’t always overlap as well as one would hope, but the rules are generally well-meaning and based on some science (mask use, for example). I have no faith in public “common sense“ and the government have failed to give clear and consistent messages. Go to work to save pret. My company won’t have us back in the office this year!
Oh and it wasn’t me gov. I don’t flame and never go as hominem. ;-).
My company won’t have us back in the office this year!
Even those of you with a 98% certain positive antibody test? TiRed? Is that because they don't want to discriminate or simply because the work is done just as well with everyone at home. If it's the latter the changes could become durable with most work being done from home.
black sheep
There’s a racial / racist history to that phrase so could you please leave it out of the forum.
thanks.
