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It’s always been about limiting the damage till we can deal with it the way we deal with influenza.
We never really "dealt" with influenza - it killed a lot of people and we shrugged our shoulders, what we are trying to do now has never been done before. This isn't smallpox.
The 1889-1890 pandemic (possibly a coronavirus) had yearly outbreaks until the end of 1895 - that was with the disease being allowed to rip through the global population circa 1889-90.
Oh and +1 thecaptain........humans are inherently biased towards optimism aren't they?
mefty
Free Member
Maqcron said it was quasi ineffecitve, there was (is?) no data to support that statement.
not that im aware, unless EMA or someone has data not public that says its 25% less effective in over 65s?]
edit
certainly for 2 doses theres a good antibody response in OAPs (less so for 1 dose)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32466-1/fulltext
There’s not enough data either way. That BBC fact check handles it in quite an impartial and fair way. The answer to your question can be found in there Mefty (or just read what Tired has been posting).
The study may have been too small to give a precise answer, but it was large enough to show that the vaccine isn’t highly effective.
Probably worth expanding on your point here thecaptain, for the others.
I suspect I get what you're saying but I'd like to hear you expand on it.
No, there is enough data to say that the vaccine is not highly effective (for some value of "highly"). If it was highly effective there would have been many fewer cases in the treatment arm than the placebo. If it was 100% effective there would necessarily have been none at all for any sample size.
There isn't enough data to accurately identify whether it's weakly effective, moderately effective or totally ineffective. It may still be quite useful.
There’s not enough data either way.
Precisely, so Macron's statement was irresponsible and hence he was criticised, if he had said there was insufficient data to come to a conclusion, there would have not been any meaningful criticism.
humans are inherently biased towards optimism aren’t they?
Not on this thread; we'd have 2 million UK dead, 60 million unemployed and a continuous queue of trucks from Dover backed up to about Birmingham, along with a 2 year continuous lockdown if some people had their way.
Optimism has kept me sane and if we are honest, alive, through the last year.
I may have been wildly over optimistic at some points, and sadly annoyingly risk averse/pessimistic with regards to financial investments.
But the only thing keeping me from taking a rope up to the loft is the thought that life will get back to some sort of "normal" if not the same at some point in the not too distant future.
If not, there really is no point wasting a vaccine or indeed any finite resource on me.
If not, there really is no point wasting a vaccine or indeed any finite resource on me.
This isn't what I'm saying, what I am warning against is getting bogged down in something that isn't "winnable" by the goals and standards that politicians and society have defined so far. It is getting bogged down like that, which will lead to the above.
We have to be prepared for bad news, so we can cope with it. I don't pretend to know what an alternative strategy would look like, but we have to be agile so that we can as a society cope with this when the current plan doesn't work out.
The basic point is that an experiment that can't accurately determine a small effect, may still be powerful enough to detect a large effect, so if it doesn't detect this large effect, you can legitimately rule out the effect being large without having a precise estimate as to how big it is. Essentially just turning the confidence interval around...not that I really like confidence intervals, but there you are...
That's roughly what I suspected you were getting at - but I don't want to put words into other peoples mouths.
70+ not vaccinated yet now being asked to chase it up.
Boris said "prevent" earlier. Hancock has just said "some effect". I'll take TiRed's post on the previous page as nearest to truth.
Good to see your objectivity on your own company's product, TiRed.
Macron’s statement was irresponsible
Time will tell. I’m not sure it was, to be honest. We’re pressing ahead as if it is effective to a limited degree, based on antibody testing and a hunch. It’s a hunch I support, and pushing forward based on a hope of “quasi-effective” is good… mostly because our vaccine plan does not stop there… we’re looking and buying ahead with the assumption that vaccinating again in the UK with other or updated vaccines within 12 months will happen. Do anything that helps keep people out of hospital now. Boost with more effective vaccines later if they offer better protection for individuals and/or communities, or against new variants.
we’re looking and buying ahead with the assumption that vaccinating again in the UK with other or updated vaccines within 12 months will happen.
My issue with this, is despite the rapid roll out of the vaccine program in the UK it's still too slow that in the case of the rapid spread of a variant that significantly reduces the effectiveness of a vaccine - we're back to reactive measures again. Let's not get started on how slow the vaccine program in Europe has been. We aren't anti-fragile, the whole program at the moment is a house of cards.
The initial vaccines will save lives, and allow us more freedoms later this year. They don’t allow us to rule out ongoing measures or rule out further lockdowns. Ongoing vaccine developments and rollouts might.
isn’t highly effective
At preventing symptomatic disease. There are lots of fancy sums one can do to look at posterior distribution for probability of hospital admission, but there really isn't much data here. A bit like the rest of the program, sadly.
Although these trials look big by normal standards, it's really about the number of EVENTS not the number of participants. Below 200 events, a study is basically a proof of concept study and hard to interpret. Some transparency on the over 65's data would have been nice. I'd still take it though.
The initial vaccines will save lives, and allow us more freedoms later this year. They don’t allow us to rule out ongoing measures or rule out further lockdowns. Ongoing vaccines developments and rollouts might.
Sure. But this isn't what the public expects. Just like they didn't expect WW1 to last 4+ years, the Korean war to end in a stalemate, Vietnam to end in humiliation, Iraq to end in ISIS.
Sure. But this isn’t what the public expects.
That is very true. Clear public communication of expectations has been missing. I've tried to be transparent. A vaccine is good news for generating a polyclonal antibody response. That will do something when the virus comes. Whether it will:
1. give sterile protection
2. give asymptomatic infection which can't be transmitted
3. give asymptomatic infection which can be transmitted
4. give mild infection that does not need hospitalization
5. give moderate infection
6. does nothing
is still unknown for the variant. I's say that mRNA is currently a 1-2, Oxford is towards a 2-4. Hopefully things won't head for a 6.
I'm not sure why people are so critical of the European vaccination programme. Vaccins have be made and that takes time. Even if the UK had been a part of the programme if you spread the 12 million UK doses so far used evenly over 450 million you up the percentage vaccinated by only about 2%.
This is why I'm not to fussed about the UK going it alone, the doses being argued over wouldn't make much difference. However, the impact on current and future relations is catastrophic.
But this isn’t what the public expects.
True. And we know why that is. We are poorly served in terms of political leaders and column writers and “quasi-journalists”… and sometimes they are the same people.
In principle it's little different to fighting a COIN war. The idea of pacification of villages and towns by essentially locking them down and inoculating the population against communist ideology is superficially similar in terms of how we are dealing with COVID. We have to manage it based on all the lessons we've learned about why previous counter-insurgencies have failed and why they lost public support. Otherwise we'll commit, commit again and commit some more to policies that are doomed to either fail or lose public support - and history will judge all of the effort, younger lives and money thrown at COVID as a waste.
The Netherlands rioting is a foreshadow.
.
Well, off the back off losing my job cos of COVID and not understanding what the hell all the specifics of statistics people talk about mean, I've just scored an scholarship for the unemployed to do an MSc module in Data Analysis and Simulation from Heriot Watt.
Time to engage the brain.
Nice!
is still unknown for the variant. I’s say that mRNA is currently a 1-2, Oxford is towards a 2-4. Hopefully things won’t head for a 6.
Forgive me here TiRed - I have an enormous amount of respect for the work you've done. We both work in Pharma, your career currently eclipses mine. That said....."hopefully things won't head for a 6".... isn't good enough. This is what scares me, that's similar to the kind of thing that the US intelligence data nerds were saying about cartpet bombing the ho chi minh trail.
"Hopefully" is what leads to...with hindsight....totally daft policy decisions.
TiRed has to be careful what he says though, from a company perspective, I'm sure he has more theories but won't elaborate for that reason?.
Good stuff ygh!
What was missing from the three behind pulpits earlier was the following worst case:
We know the South African virus is circulating as we have 124 confirmed UK cases and the latest test results show one of the vaccines used, AZ, is unlikely to prevent some degree of illness in some people who will probably be infectious. That means that this variant can develop in both the non-vaccinated and AZ vaccinated populations. If lockdown is lifted the virus will take off again in these populations, with further mutation inevitable. It will soon become the dominant variant unless we use vaccines that stop its progression. We are not out of the woods yet and are only using the AZ vaccine as a stop gap.
That would have been more honest than the rambling reassurances and praise of everyone except the people really making a difference: you, me and anyone else wearing a mask around other people, keeping contacts to a minimum, working from home if possible and windows open if not... .
Riots by the summer and certainly next autumn. There....**** it. I'm calling it.
Riots by the summer and certainly next autumn. There….**** it. I’m calling it.
You've been building up to that comment for a few hours now with all your military disaster analogies. Now that you've reached the climax of your disaster fapping, please don't use the curtain on your way out 😉
I’ve just scored an scholarship for the unemployed to do an MSc module in Data Analysis and Simulation from Heriot Watt.
Congratulations! Python, R and SAS will be your friends. But the best skill for data analytics is an inquiring mind. Data analytics is the process of converting data into knowledge.
That said…..”hopefully things won’t head for a 6″…. isn’t good enough
OK, I'll be blunt: my work in Pharma makes me much more comfortable with uncertainty than most people. Including a lot of the meeja-profs/renta-voices you will hear with urgent comments on the most recent (usually interim and under-powered) data. I've seen a LOT of early clinical data for promising new drugs that never make it. Small trials give you a feel, not much more, for where we are going. The vaccine trials are small trials (on a population scale).
But Evolutionary Biology has a solid track record. The virus will generate antigenic drift and the efficacy of current vaccines will shift things down to a 5-6 eventually. But, the vaccines will change and we will be back up to a 1-2 (for mRNA and maybe spike proteins). Then the process will occur again. For influenza, that cycle is annual. For SASR-CoV-2 it may be slower due to the spike protein plasticity. Too early to say, but just like the other coronaviruses, reinfections will become milder and morbidity with reduce (unlike influenza which can have extreme shifts).
A reasonable time-frame for some form of reduced morbidity and mortality due to vaccination is 3Q21 in the UK. But endemicity and regular vaccination is probably another year or two away. That's based on how the biotechnology and Pharma industry works. You can sprint for a while, but eventually you have to settle to long-term pace.
You’ve been building up to that comment for a few hours now with all your military disaster analogies. Now that you’ve reached the climax of your disaster fapping, please don’t use the curtain on your way out
I dont think its an unreasonable position, the last year+ has sapped away everyone's optimism and tbh we had riots , well large protest marches, with a bit of statue wobbling, last year anyway
So likely result is :
Pfizer/Moderna will be given as much as poss to the most at risk.
AZ will do for now for the rest.
ASAP AZ will be remodelled for more variants and anyone who had it will get a booster in the autumn
As new vaccines (J&J, Novamax etc) roll out, they will get checked/adapted for nes variants.
Rinse and repeat for the next few years.
Novovax isn’t far off being put into arms in the grand scheme of things and is allegedly effective against the SA strain.
Valneva will hopefully be along later in the year too. Both manufacturing in the U.K. if that means anything.
I don’t see an alternative to the future beyond rinse and repeat. Annual vaccines has been an expectation from quite early on. And will be a thing for several years at a minimum.
Tbh, if we can actually vaccinate annually and successfully it’d seem like a best case scenario
I suspect we'll have some polyvalent mRNA vaccines which code for multiple variants of the spike protein. We may also have multivalent spike protein vaccines too with different variant proteins in the same dose. In time. But I think giving everyone some form of pre-existing immunity is the priority. That will allow some form of normality to return.
After the end of this lockdown, when we are in the summer with vaccination levels currently predicted - the public will want to see an exit strategy back to full normality relatively rapidly.
Remember how people clamored for it last summer? Now they have a vaccine and if they don't get normality, there are going to be questions to answer and heads rolling.
I am really worried about how we settle in to long term covid vaccine manufacturing that keeps up with worldwide demand as well - as you say, we can't sprint forever. We essentially have to recreate the capacity that we have for manufacturing flu vaccines, so we can do both on a long term basis at the same time - that's more facilities, more equipment, more materials, more trained staff, stronger supply chains, more R&D. It's a total mind ****. TJ mentioned a while back that it's hard to just magic new nurses out of thin air to boost capacity, well..... it's even harder to magic sterile injectable facilities out of thin air.
You’ve been building up to that comment for a few hours now with all your military disaster analogies. Now that you’ve reached the climax of your disaster fapping, please don’t use the curtain on your way out
It's the closest thing that we have in terms of being able to predict public support and the societal effects of the kind of intervention that is occurring at the moment.
Thanks everyone. Will be no use to my career prospects, more for personal intellectual development.
I can add it to my somewhat "eclectic" adult educational history:
Honours degree in Moral and Ethical Philosophy
MSc in Multimedia Design
Core Skills in Volunteer Management
Historical Curating and Archiving
Welding
Breadmaking
Cabinet Building
MSc in Brewing & Distilling
Professional Scrum Master
I feel my life requires direction.
That's an awesome list of achievements there.
Well done YGH.
Crikey. All I have is a handful of GCSEs.
Thanks again @Tired for your postings. Keeps me thinking forward in some way.
Will be interested to see how far antigenic drift can occur on the spike protein before it has negative impacts on the virus in terms of cell entry. It's structure can only shift so far before it starts inhibiting ace2 binding you would think.
Figuring out if and when this happens will be interesting though. Maybe it could be this that drives attenuation over time?
BBC News is now telling people exactly how easy it is to travel on a fake Covid-19 test certificate. "I needed to fly for work but couldn't afford the test, so I paid someone 50 quid to Photoshop it for me".
I'm not sure I take it quite the no-harm-no-foul attitude that they do.
But it does highlight how we can’t run any system properly due to lack of funding/staff.
Same with quarantine
Same with Passenger Locator Forms
Covid Self isolation
It’s a long list of failures...
. Now that you’ve reached the climax of your disaster fapping, please don’t use the curtain on your way out 😉
My prediction for the summer:
Have you got your bog roll and shotgun supplies in? 🙂
Dammit, bog roll. That’s what’s missing from the shopping list!
Can't get enough boll roll around here. It's pasta that's in short supply!
Looks like surge testing in Manchester not far from me is taking place in the coming days for the Kent variant.
Looks like surge testing in Manchester not far from me is taking place in the coming days for the Kent variant.
I'm not sure I understand why we are surge testing for the Kent variant any more. It's overwhelmingly the predominant strain in all regions.
Unless I've misunderstood the reason for testing. Isn't it more likely they're looking for SA strain? That's the issue of concern, with known cases in the Darwen area.
I'm surprised they don't know have a network of Covid testing stations linked to the sewage system. That would surely give a less random sampling?
It would be a good plan for detecting future hotspots, the ability to test waste water to determine prevalence has been 'floated' since April of last year or thereabouts.
I suppose prevalence is so high at the moment that it would be of limited value, but testing in between peaks and following up positives with door to door testing would be an interesting approach.
Yeah, I was thinking that sewage testing would be good for identifying (the spread of) new variants too.
It's for a new variation of the Kent variant. My worry is that every time there is a notable mutation, it makes the news and is used in a negative way to scaremonger.
I’m surprised they don’t know have a network of Covid testing stations linked to the sewage system. That would surely give a less random sampling?
Yes, we do that in Australia - works well: you should definitely get onto that
Here we go, fill ya boots: ABC news report
TJ mentioned a while back that it’s hard to just magic new nurses out of thin air to boost capacity, well….. it’s even harder to magic sterile injectable facilities out of thin air
You're a little ray of drizzle aren't you? 😄
IMO it's probably a lot more achievable to get more vaccine production capability up and running in a shorter timescale than magicing up new nurses. It's 'just' a question of money and resource. When your situation is a shut down economy the first becomes available pretty fast and the second follows.
Still, panic now and beat the rush. 😉
My worry is that every time there is a notable mutation, it makes the news and is used in a negative way to scaremonger.
reporting a new variant isnt scaremongering, the kent variant was able to spread through schools and communities and contribute to a huge rise in cases and deaths, that was newsworthy
and iirc the concern is that the kent variant has a new mutation that looks similar to the problematic one in the SA variant
convergent evolution!
I can understand the optimism some people are showing but this strikes me as nuts:
I fear it's pretty much guaranteed that these holidaymakers - if they're allowed to go - will bring back one or multiple variants of the virus that are more resistant to current vaccines just in time for them to spread enough to be ready to run rampant over the winter.
One year of holidaying in the UK for everyone, if they want a holiday, would be a massive boost to getting closer to normality foe 2022/3 and onwards.
My sis-in-law works for Tui
she says that booking for this summer have been way higher than expected
but the place we usually go to in Cornwall is booked up already for the whole summer!
all holiday firms are offeringa covid guarantee, so its pretty safe putting a deposit down
IMO it’s probably a lot more achievable to get more vaccine production capability up and running in a shorter timescale than magicing up new nurses. It’s ‘just’ a question of money and resource. When your situation is a shut down economy the first becomes available pretty fast and the second follows.
That reminds me of this https://www.statista.com/chart/23885/coronavirus-vaccine-production-capabilities-by-country/
If anyone knows how they arrived at the U.K. manufacturing capacity of CV19 vaccines as 0.95 billion I’d be interested to know more details.
e.g. two shots into one person = two doses
Including supply chain elements, I’m sure I read some element of the Pfizer vaccine is produced in the U.K.
How much production in 2020 is in that total.
IMO it’s probably a lot more achievable to get more vaccine production capability up and running in a shorter timescale than magicing up new nurses. It’s ‘just’ a question of money and resource. When your situation is a shut down economy the first becomes available pretty fast and the second follows.
Still, panic now and beat the rush
Graham1984 will confirm but brining new vaccine production online is not that easy at all, no matter how much money you throw at it, the process is complex and time consuming, with a lot of potentially rate limiting steps
IMO it’s probably a lot more achievable to get more vaccine production capability up and running in a shorter timescale than magicing up new nurses. It’s ‘just’ a question of money and resource. When your situation is a shut down economy the first becomes available pretty fast and the second follows.
Still, panic now and beat the rush
I've been working on these projects since last August.
Sterile manufacturing requires trained and experienced clean room manufacturing technicians who are every bit as skilled as a nurse. Then there are the mountains of highly skilled support staff behind them.
Nurses take 3 years, then another 2-3 to make ITU nurses...
I know some who started working in ITU last March who haven't had any formal training.
Yeah, it takes that long to train up a senior manufacturing technician as well - not to mention that most of them are graduates these days with 3 year degrees.
It's not like building cars where you can buy a load of robots to work the line and stick a bunch of idiots from Sunderland on either end, even then you have some very long lead time bits of equipment if you are building a new facility or expanding one.
t’s even harder to magic sterile injectable facilities out of thin air.
Vaccination centres don't have to be sterile. The key thing is preserving the cold chain. You don't even need to clean the skin provided it's not visibly dirty.
convergent evolution!
Well, if it is and it takes hold, we're pretty much back to square 1. I wasn't saying it shouldn't be reported, just the way it is reported.
Vaccination centres don’t have to be sterile. The key thing is preserving the cold chain. You don’t even need to clean the skin provided it’s not visibly dirty.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152481/
Aspects of the formulation and preparation of the vaccine should be discussed when they may
increase the risk of ADRs. e.g. a formulation where a diluent for reconstitution needs to be
added may affect sterility, leading to clinical reactions such as increased local reactions,
abscesses;
I fear it’s pretty much guaranteed that these holidaymakers – if they’re allowed to go – will bring back one or multiple variants of the virus
Quite probably. A couple of weeks in a quarantine hotel might focus their minds a bit.
that are more resistant to current vaccines just in time for them to spread enough to be ready to run rampant over the winter.
I'd be interested what the vaccine experts on here think about that as a risk. Presumably wider spread means more mutations so increased likelihood, but where do they see it on the "slight concern" to "OMG!" scale?
I’m surprised they don’t know have a network of Covid testing stations linked to the sewage system
They do, but the signal is quantitative rather than qualitative.
One year of holidaying in the UK for everyone, if they want a holiday, would be a massive boost to getting closer to normality foe 2022/3 and onwards.
Will be holidaying in UK again this year. Had a lovely time in Norfolk last year.
I can understand the optimism some people are showing but this strikes me as nuts:
Everyone’s booking holidays.
I fear it’s pretty much guaranteed that these holidaymakers – if they’re allowed to go – will bring back one or multiple variants of the virus that are more resistant to current vaccines just in time for them to spread enough to be ready to run rampant over the winter.
One year of holidaying in the UK for everyone, if they want a holiday, would be a massive boost to getting closer to normality foe 2022/3 and onwards.
WHAT about the people that work for the holiday companies? There will be no companies left to take you on holiday in 2022.
WHAT about the people that work for the holiday companies? There will be no companies left to take you on holiday in 2022.
Ha! I escaped from Norfolk aged 18!
We’ve booked to go sailing again in Greece, which can be rebooked if required. Yes, there’s flights, but it’s the complete self-isolating holiday, living on your own boat for a week, and eating in outside tavernas.
On a less positive note, one of my riding buddies admitted to hospital today with CV19. O2 and Dexa.
I know some who started working in ITU last March who haven’t had any formal training.
My dopey sister in-law is an NHS Speech therapist in London - she has had a number of phone-calls asking her to swap and do ITU nursing shifts..
She has no medical/clinical training beyond what is needed to be a speech therapist - just highlights how desperate the staff shortages are in some hospitals.
all holiday firms are offering a COVID guarantee, so its pretty safe putting a deposit down
I can see why people are taking the risk and booking a holiday -
Slim chance things will be normal enough to go - and if you've not booked then there is a risk that what you want will be booked up.
Worst case you'll be able to carry it over to 2022.
We've got 2 weeks in Lake Garda in August carried over from last year - i'm not cancelling it just yet, but pretty certain we won't be able to go.
I fear it’s pretty much guaranteed that these holidaymakers – if they’re allowed to go – will bring back one or multiple variants of the virus that are more resistant to current vaccines just in time for them to spread enough to be ready to run rampant over the winter.
One year of holidaying in the UK for everyone, if they want a holiday, would be a massive boost to getting closer to normality foe 2022/3 and onwards
People need/want something tangible to look forward to, we've been lockdown on and of for the best part of a year, people are fed up and the hope of perhaps getting some sun over the summer will really help some.
We're vaccinating at a great rate, numbers are dropping and , rightly or wrongly, people are starting to look to the future a little. Who can blame them?
I've not booking anything personally, but I sure as hell would love something to aim for that isn't just "existing" as we are now.
I’ve not booking anything personally, but I sure as hell would love something to aim for that isn’t just “existing” as we are now.
Yeah, I'd like the same, but I'm aiming low and ust hoping I can finish the bathroom at the house and have a working indoor toilet by spring. I like the idea of being able to take a Forrest without having to go outside in -17C and sit on a composting box.
My dopey sister in-law is an NHS Speech therapist in London – she has had a number of phone-calls asking her to swap and do ITU nursing shifts..
That might be a little unkind as she'll have some transferable skills in patients with swallow or breathing difficulties (a lot of post-stroke work requires speech therapists).
WHAT about the people that work for the holiday companies? There will be no companies left to take you on holiday in 2022.
I left the travel industry (one of the bigger online travel agents) at the start of the pandemic and the general feeling is the big companies ie your booking.com, Airbnb, and Expedia will be fine and have took on massive investment and or made massive redundancies. The smaller ones likely will not survive. And the big three will just buy them up for the inventory.
If people are allowed to go I say let them go for some people its their passion like mine is riding bikes. We just have to hope the gov' put a process in place for people coming and going. Judging someone for their actions isn't helpful because no one is perfect.
I sure as hell would love something to aim for
Agreed. But if I have to spent next winter with similar restrictions to this winter... all because some people can't "live" without a holiday abroad, I'll be slightly peeved. I'm desperate to get out of this country myself... but I can't see us (as a whole, not just the UK) being so on top of this by the summer that we can start travelling the globe without proper quarantine on returning... well, not without risking another rubbish winter.
[ The other side of this... is that if we are allowed to holiday abroad this summer... I really don't think I can resist going. I so want to escape... I'm aware of the duplicity. ]
I would love to get away somewhere in the UK this year. Actually, I just want to be able to go back to Belfast for a week to see friends and family.
Actually, I just want to be able to go back to Belfast for a week to see friends and family.
None of my family are local. I've not seen most of them for over 12 months now. Not seen some since 2019. Thanks for the kick... being able to stay with, and see them, in the UK, should be my aim... abroad next year. Perspective. Priorities. Thanks. And UK riding... not from my back door.... actually, I'm buzzing thinking about it now. Thanks again.
I just want to be able to go back to Belfast for a week to see friends and family.
You'll be allowed to do this once immediate lockdown is relaxed. Son 2 is Ireland studying and we will be traveling to collect him. THE GFA helps here with travel arrangements, but staying overnight in the Republic may still be a challenge for us. He's quarantined himself twice so far. Once in September and again in January.