It’s not Xenophobic. Airports are ideal places to contain transmission. Test and quarantine in both directions.
It’s not Xenophobic
It is when you intimate that it's those pesky foreigners coming here are the issue, a bit pub landlordy.
No, the problem is that the virus loves us all moving around and meeting face to face. We have been reducing movement within the UK, and putting measures in place to stop spread, there is no good reason for ignoring the issue of moving into and out of the UK… travel in both directions should be allowed, but both should come with screening and quarantine this summer. No blanket bans, but proper testing and quarantine when moving between countries via airports.
Edit: Most people entering the UK via airports are likely to be British, no?
Its not Xenophic at all. I said:
people are going to come from all over the place
I didn't say
Foreigners are going to come from all over the place
Unless cats are suddenly into mass transport via airports its people carrying the virus I'm worried about - but yes nothwistanding it also goes the other way.
It’s not Xenophobic
It is when you intimate that it’s those pesky foreigners coming here are the issue, a bit pub landlordy.
What is the * point of opening up scotland to every rancid covid infected * south of the border to move freely around scotland whilst dropping the virus around to all and sundry?.
Suggest we stay on topic.
Fair enough, agreed.
Most people (on this thread at least) seem to agree that the handling of the pandemic by the UK government has been, shall we say, sub-optimal. People have been saying for weeks that restrictions have been relaxed too early and too fast. So why does the number of cases continue to fall? If they are handling it so badly wouldn't we expect cases to have stated to rise by now?
So why does the number of cases continue to fall?
My reading of it is that despite all the tabloid headlines, public behaviour is lagging behind the easing of restrictions and many/most people aren't doing *that* much different to what they have been for the last few months.
This issue is considered in the latest (3.7) Independent Sage video on YT. Worth a squizz.
VitD production from direct sun exposure during the UK summer is flattering our government's incompetancy in England, I suspect.
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It’s not Xenophobic
It is when you intimate that it’s those pesky foreigners coming here are the issue, a bit pub landlordy.
What is the * point of opening up scotland to every rancid covid infected * south of the border to move freely around scotland whilst dropping the virus around to all and sundry?.
Suggest we stay on topic.
Ok, but I'd like to clarify that I did not post that last paragraph, so please don't include me by implication.
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So why does the number of cases continue to fall? If they are handling it so badly wouldn’t we expect cases to have stated to rise by now?
Because most people are being more cautious than the relaxations allow.
I take the point, but if it had been handled better much earlier, and restrictions eased more slowly, the fall in infections and deaths would have been much faster.
It currently feels like everyone is pleasantly surprised at the continued drop in numbers and gas forgotten the previous 60,000 excess deaths.
Good to see low numbers on a Friday. Long may the downward trend continue. I personally think it's right that lockdown is easing now (i know it's not the the popular view on here) yes we should have acted more quickly at the beginning but how about occasionally focusing on the fact things are improving now?
It's great that things are improving. But the virus is currently at the levels it was when we had to go into lockdown. If we act now as we were before lockdown, we'd be in big trouble again in weeks. But we're not acting the same as before... most people are waiting for the virus to be under control and track/trace/isolate in place... which sadly looks like the government is planning for the Autumn. Why not now? Why the delay in getting the app in place? Why the long slow (and expensive at £10billion so far) building up of a privately run centralised track and trace function, which they aim to be fully working later this year, rather than funding local public bodies and having them do this from February (five months ago) onwards?
Well its being reported on the news channels the R no has gone up very slightly although the average is between 0.8-1.0.
We're in danger of measuring "success" as not being anywhere near our own insanely high peak of infections and deaths, rather than looking to other countries at just what is possible... stop the deaths and get businesses, schools, universities, healthcare etc opening properly again... ASAP.
Good to see low numbers on a Friday. Long may the downward trend continue. I personally think it’s right that lockdown is easing now (i know it’s not the the popular view on here) yes we should have acted more quickly at the beginning but how about occasionally focusing on the fact things are improving now?
The obvious risk is that things are improving now but it can take a turn for the worse, and there is obvious lag between lifting restrictions and rising cases. And we've only just lifted some of the more dangerous environments. Everyone should be looking at the US and Brazil for examples of what is possible.
I would still compare our choices with Australia/NZ and the cautions they are taking. Not allowing international travel, swift and hard lockdowns, better regional controls. NZ, IIRC, has NO active cases.
Numbers are improving BECAUSE of the restrictions....
So why does the number of cases continue to fall? If they are handling it so badly wouldn’t we expect cases to have stated to rise by now?
Because most people are being more cautious than the relaxations allow.
The effect of this should not be underestimated.
The amount of older people I've seen this week still refusing to leave the house, taking all the precautions and basically still living in fear while doing my Home Delivery job is an eye-opener. I thought that they'd be chomping at the bit to get out the second the restrictions were lifted in Wales on Monday but they are mostly wary of the increased traffic, crowds and risking passing it onto their friends. You've also got the large numbers who are avoiding going to pubs of all age groups so you have the strange situation where we have gone from people seemingly pushing the rules to get a bit of freedom to now holding back just in case it's too early.
We’re in danger of measuring “success” as not being anywhere near our own insanely high peak of infections and deaths, rather than looking to other countries at just what is possible…
It's only the government measuring success against their own track record, most of my friends are measuring us against other countries and have the same view that I have: lockdown is happening a little too fast and a little too early in England, Wales and Scotland seem to be taking a more measured approach.
We seem to be risking things a bit too much in having a second wave like the US so that we can get business running again.
but how about occasionally focusing on the fact things are improving now?
We do. But we cannot be complacent about it. It's as bad now as when we went into lockdown. We need to be planning for a possible second spike being around just as this year's winter flu season is coming. Because if we have to have a second large scale lockdown, I very much doubt the magic money tree could do it all again.
Which of the countries on the current approved list give you cause for concern? AFAICS for most of them travellers will be at more risk of catching Covid in the UK than we have of them bringing it in.
Remember that effectively, the UK is on that list as well. And by removing the Quarantine requirement, you take people from a massive area, squash them into a small place, then send them on their way. By definition, I'd expect tourists to visit more places on average. To my limited understanding, that makes the transmission vectors around airports a significant risk.
People keep saying "it's as bad as when we went into lockdown".
This is simply not true, in fact it's orders of magnitude wrong.
At the time of lockdown, infections were running at something like 250,000 new cases per day, definitely over 100,000. That sort of number. And doubling every 3 days.
Currently, there are probably a couple of thousand new cases per day, 5,000 at most. And it's going down slowly.
Don't confuse the reported number with the reality.
At the time of lockdown, infections were running at something like 250,000 new cases per day, definitely over 100,000. That sort of number.
Er. Do you mean in the UK? The figures I can see say that we had 600-odd new cases on 23rd March, which is about the same as now. Figures worldwide are 13000 in March, over 200,000 new cases at the moment. Where are you getting your stats from?
Yes, the UK. I'm talking about the true level of infection rather than the completely inadequate test numbers.
Back in March, there simply wasn't the capacity to test the vast majority of suspected cases (let alone asymptomatic), so only a handful of the most severe ones got counted. The true number of infections was as I've written.
Don’t confuse the reported number with the reality.
Bloody been saying this for months. Don't consider it, get it done!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53365062
There is evidence that behavioural changes before lockdown were already slowing the epidemic. Currently there is no evidence that cases and deaths are continuing to decline. Welcome to endemic COVID19. An R of 1 with low levels of new cases is a lot better than with 30x more cases.
We are starting to see evidence of waning antibody levels in some areas as one would expect for other coronavirus.
This weeks analysis of excess deaths was finally unremarkable and within historic norms. It is possible that deaths may be lower in the second half of 2020 as we approach winter. Excess deaths are still predicted at 70k.
TiRed, both cases and deaths are continuing to decline gradually. It's a surprise to me that it hasn't turned up yet, but it still seems clear enough in the data. Just look at the 7 day smooth on worldometer.
18 new cases in Scotland today. Higher than it's been for 3 weeks?
If we are worried about importing the virus from countries with a higher infection rate than ours, then can we please close the border between Gretna and Berwick?
Currently there is no evidence that cases and deaths are continuing to decline
Eh?
18 new cases in Scotland today. Higher than it’s been for 3 weeks?
Its one day, let's wait and see some trends before panicking.
At the time of lockdown, infections were running at something like 250,000 new cases per day, definitely over 100,000. That sort of number. And doubling every 3 days.
That turned out to be bollocks though, didn't it.
Look on a log scale. Half life is several weeks now and getting longer, so we’ll soon be at sporadic endemicity, where Outbreaks are sustained by importation. That’ll see us through till the schools go back.
Nope, R is still around 0.8 and has been wobbling around that value for a while. I'm not promising it will stay there - far from it, I still keep thinking that it must be about to turn - but it just doesn't. This is higher than the immediate post-lockdown value but it went up a while ago and stuck. Sure there's the odd worse day, but then a better day. Week on week, infections are down about 30%ish.
Of course anyone who keeps on calling the floor is going to be right at some point. I absolutely agree that this isn't going away before the autumn.
scotroutes, no you're the bollocks merchant here. How do you think we got over 50k deaths at a 1% fatality rate? That's 5 million infections, give or take a couple of million. More likely more than fewer (IFR probably wasn't quite as high as 1%). When and where do you think they happened?
Continuing the good news theme; the IFR seems to be dropping too. Whether that’s due to the virus mutating, us getting better at treating it or some other reason is unknown. But how low does it have to go before we just stop worrying about it i.e. before it is no worse than other circulating viruses?
It seems likely that numbers will be increasing again by the autumn, but I wonder whether there will be the same level of panic next time.
Numbers are low enough and sporadic by location, that at is not really a reliable estimator now. Growth/decline rate is what matters. In fact it has been all that really matters.
IFR may change for many reasons; hospital capacity - older patients might make it to ITU now, treatment improves (dexamethasone standard of care), better protection of nursing home residents making cases younger, and possibly viral attenuation (less convinced of that one).
Ok, but I’d like to clarify that I did not post that last paragraph, so please don’t include me by implication.
i don't think anyone would have drawn that conclusion, but i apologise if you think that was a possibility.
I agree that it is hard to say right now why IFR is dropping, but my question was more about how low it has to get before people stop caring.
The government will be keen to stop us worrying about Covid, the press must be getting bored by now and people are generally not great at balancing different risks and tend to worry about the stuff they are told to worry about. So, could we get to a point where numbers increase again but nobody really cares?
Well, I like to think I'm almost well balanced if not erring on the paranoid side with most things, yet I went out for my first 6 person max club ride today, and was definitely on edge, more so when we stopped at the end for coffee, and everyone sat relatively close together. People are careful not to allow sweaty helmets and gloves to touch others, not pats on the back and (we were outside) people walking the pavement/we did pause to allow distance for people passing.
In other words, people in general seem to still be being very cautious. I get the impression that if numbers start to noticeably increase a lot of people will get increasingly nervous.
Reports up here suggest that compliance with compulsory face covering while shopping is almost 100% I think the message has got through and there's a certain amount of peer-pressure/willingness to conform helping.
Kryton, I have read that sweaty helmets are a major risk to transmission. Maybe a flexible plastic cover would help?
😀
I never want to hear about “digital solutions” from this government ever again… useless lying incompetent shites that they are…
https://twitter.com/ormondroyd/status/1279337136085446657?s=21
Ormondroyd used to post on here didn't he?
scotroutes
SubscriberReports up here suggest that compliance with compulsory face covering while shopping is almost 100%
It felt to me (unscientific) that as soon as they said it was going to be mandatory, mask use went up to something pretty close to 100%, at least in supermarkets.
Depressing the number of comments that say "there aren't enough police to enforce it". This is not the sort of law that should need constant enforcement, it's the sort of law that the huge majority should just follow because it's easy and right, like not going out robbing.
Ormondroyd used to post on here didn’t he?
Yup. He’s sound. Not seen him for years though.
