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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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Indeed it is a grave situation

As an example, someone I know

Is dead. He was 57. His son is the same age as mine. His wife is on her own, save for the weekly walk with mrs TiRed. He died of covid. Despite a “comorbidity”, it was not his time to go. He was economically active.

The economy will recover. Of that I am in no doubt. People will return to previous behaviours and economic activity.

We have taken the least bad option. It’s not a good option, and deliberation may have made matters worse. But the alternatives are simply not viable. The first job of government is to protect its citizens. That includes those such as your friend, and on that count they have failed. I’m also happy to and expect to have to pay for it. It’s called society.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 12:37 am
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scotroutes
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So, the same question to you; what is your alternative?

I asked the same of jj pages back as others have time and again.

If he thinks people in the "echo chamber" here love lockdowns he is seriously mistaken.

So, jj, give us an alternative?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 12:43 am
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as a consequence of

A failure of support.

I know plenty of people who were in new jobs, or newly self employed, who have fallen through the cracks chasms in government support schemes. And I know a guy whose work not only relied on music festivals, but moving between international music festivals to enable year round work. Now living in his van. Lots of people have not been supported properly.

Near the start of this thread I proposed a shift to a universal basic income for this pandemic, rather than paying people via their employers through furlough. It’s not a very popular alternative it seems. Put I put it out there. How would you support these people JJ? Because their sectors would still be hit by this pandemic even without “lockdown” laws… remember when pubs were open before the first lockdown, but it was made clear to people that to stop the spread they should stay away? The pubs weren’t shut, but they also weren’t coping economically. The hit on people’s livelihoods wouldn’t have been prevented by using just social responsibility rather laws to reduce transmission.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 12:43 am
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This is always going to be the elephant in the pandemic - what do you propose else?

Plagues 'n' shit have been part of the human experience as far back as it has been recorded - one thing the Romans 'have ever done for us' is record exactly this - let alone what further misery is in our pre-history. Are we to just abandon the progress we have made and revert to carts going down the street crying 'bring out your dead'?

In what manner are we to 'let it rip'?

We could, of course, employ our fabled 'Nightingale Hospital's to discreetly allow our thousands of (what are after all economically useless) citizens to lose their fight against their last breath somewhere conveniently out of the way. So that we don't have to look at them. While they die. It'd be closer to the morgue and everything, just so much more convenient.

How do we administer this?

We can now use our Nightingale Hospitals so that those who keep going on about them can see that they have, after all, been used. Now they can be repurposed as 'Death Centres'. But how are we to now use them?

Obviously we just deny medical treatment of any kind to the over-75s, so they can go directly to the death centre based on age.

But what about when we have admissions of people who are obese? Do we weigh them before farming them out to the Nightingale death centres?

Do we treat Type 1 diabetics in actual hospitals, but send Type 2 diabetics to the Nightingale Death Camp?

We should probably just get rid of the autoimmune crowd straight off the bat?

Someone should start looking at the travel infrastructure - what about cattle-carts to drive down cost?

We're just starting the debate, right?

Personally i'd like to think we could hold our nerve for a bit, get some perspective, and wait for evidence of how the vaccination program is going.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 1:57 am
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The economy will recover

Yes, it will but many people hit hard won't. Being made redundant over a certain age isn't something many fully recover economically from, and also personally.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:13 am
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Apologies if the ^above is a bit Godwin's, but it gets a bit tiresome to have the same questions debunked about every ten pages. It's not that difficult to understand, is it?

I was reminded earlier that Soylent Green is set in 2022.

Let's not forget that our current Government was plagued early on with a eugenicist 'scandal' amongst its advisors - it doesn't exactly imbue you with confidence that they come from a place of care and compassion.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:17 am
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The problem with this little STW echo chamber and its more lockdowntastic members is that in their comfortable WFH bubbles they have no experience of the carnage that is being caused outside.

Well, personally speaking, I was made redundant in 2016 and just finished some higher education for purposes of a new career, graduating last summer. This pandemic could not have come at a worse time from that POV, and I'm now on Universal Credit (a humiliation) with precious little savings left. If I had a family I would be screwed. If I didn't own my house (thank God I do) I would be screwed again.

I do own part of a small start-up business which hasn't been significant hurt so far by covid, but the business doesn't make money yet.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:18 am
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Another pointless prestidge post.
Most, if not all, of those posting to this thread have a clear awareness of the 'carnage' caused by repeated lockdowns.
The consequences he refers are not limited to retail; is he a shopkeeper? They have been debated at length and in far wider terms than merely retail in the Coronanomics thread.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:39 am
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The post somewhere above asking when would be the best/worst time to affected by this was probably worthy of a thread of its own, but i really feel for you.

As much as i have been supportive of the way this has been handled, i appreciate that it is 'easy' for me to do so, as i have been on furlough since March.

Tbf i earn pretty much f all, so have spent almost a year living on 8/10ths of f all, so i'm not splashing in gravy. But as a family we're treading water, not drowning but waving at least.

I genuinely think that the economic side of this is an irrelevance - it will be the beginning of a new economics.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:45 am
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Tired : Indeed it is a grave situation........

End of thread, That post sums it all up.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:59 am
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I agree. In a top 40 of posts, of which TiRed has more than half the entries that is straight in at number one, and looks like staying there a long time.

The policy is not wrong. Lockdown, kill the virus, get control and restart the economy when safe. It is the least shit of the options. I too worry about the impact in many areas, mental health (mine is bad, my son's is catastrophic right now as I've posted before), future physical health, and so on.

The issue is how it's been implemented. Poor lockdowns with poor adherence, some blame of which goes to public, and some to daft ideas like reopening schools, Christmas, etc. And desperately poor support for so many that are bearing the brunt of economic policies, which in turn leads to the MH and PhysH issues that are coming over the long term. Remember this next time you are asked to put an X in the box.

The virus will be defeated, as a scientist in science I trust. The economy will restart, and in time (a long time, maybe) will recover. Some folk will have a harder time than others as it does and as a society we need to be prepared for that and the lucky ones need to do our part to contribute. I'm not an economist so can't properly follow the arguments about 'household style' budgeting vs 'create more money' - others can do that.

But 100,000 and rising will not recover, nor will their families and spouses and while yes, some would have died anyway in the last year, for many it was not their time. And many many more would be on that count were it not for what we have done and continue to do.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:37 am
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Senior doctors want gap between Covid jabs halved

...in a letter seen by the BBC, the British Medical Association said the gap should be six weeks, saying the policy was "difficult to justify"

The doctors' union said the UK's strategy "has become increasingly isolated internationally" and "is proving evermore difficult to justify".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55777084


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:43 am
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As an example, someone I know, who used to run a successful catering business specialising in festivals, is now homeless and living in his car as a consequence of these ceaseless lockdowns.

Two words: “**** business”

It’s not just the lockdown that did that, it was right-wing dogma and incompetent government.

Even without a legally-mandated lockdown, it’s hard to see festivals being a good business to be in during a pandemic.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:57 am
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The problem with this little STW echo chamber and its more lockdowntastic members is that in their comfortable WFH bubbles they have no experience of the carnage that is being caused outside.

Total bullshit


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 9:29 am
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On the subject of alternatives, has it been discussed yet in depth in this thread the difference between the many nations so far dealing with this successfully, and the mostly Western nations (US, Europe, etc) dealing with it so poorly.

I'm sure it's a subject being analysed very closely but I see little written in any kind of media beyond the whole they're doing it right, we're doing it wrong...

What is the actual scientific consensus on why?

There are some very obvious factors: our propensity for travel and popularity as a destination being one. And we might not be NZ, but this goes well beyond NZ, we're doing worse than just about any other nation on earth despite prior warning, while places like Vietnam and Cambodia appear to be sailing through this. South Korea. China. Singapore. Australia. Etc. Etc.

What has enabled the success of these countries? And are we now beyond adopting their strategies should they be applicable to us?

Presumably by this point we're beginning to build a clear picture of what works and what doesn't by studying and modelling all of the individual approaches, along with the various factors surrounding each.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 9:38 am
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The problem with this little STW echo chamber and its more lockdowntastic members is that in their comfortable WFH bubbles they have no experience of the carnage that is being caused outside.

several of my friends have fallen thru the gaps causing hardship and distress

this is not as a result of the restrictions tho. this is as a result of poorly implemented restrictions and poorly designed support for people


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 9:40 am
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Some excellent posts up there.

I - all if us in fact - haven't just argued "for lockdown".

We've argued for "an effective lockdown with proper support packages in place".

To suggest otherwise is pretty disappointing. Those of us in our middle class WFH bubbles have kids who's education is suffering, elderly relatives struggling with shielding, friends who have lost jobs and incomes, and partners who are front line keyworkers who are going out to their jobs and potentially bringing home the virus EVERY SINGLE ****ING DAY.

so when we talk about lockdown and support, we do have some real idea what is needed, and how badly it has been handled so far.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 9:50 am
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All that post by JJ shows (up there) is that the current economic model is not sustainable nor robust enough and we need something different.

I was flabbergasted to see that Cineworld executives think it's a good idea to pay themselves an extra £200 million while they have their businesses shut here and all their staff on furlough/redundant. Read the room fellas, guess where I won't be spending money once the cinemas re-open if this pay deal gets approved?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:02 am
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We’ve argued for “an effective lockdown with proper support packages in place”.

Exactly. I mean, I've been relatively lucky, it hasn't been hard for me. But, I do have a bit of empathy and consideration for others. And I recognise this as a problem that demands competent collective action to deal with effectively. Maybe that's why I'm not a RW covidiot shill spouting ignorant sociopathic nonsense on twitter or in national newspapers.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:04 am
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Anyone else feeling baffled regarding the conflicting news stories about the delay of giving both shots of the vaccine, or is it just me?
Can’t decided if it’s bad news reporting, simply too early to properly tell or the good ol’ snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by the muppets running this circus.
RM.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:04 am
 Tim
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Government ignoring scientific advice to chase vaccination numbers to make themselves look better in the short term. They don't give a shit whether it's the correct long term decision.

Same as Xmas

Same as the kids going back to school (for a day)

Populism rules again...


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:13 am
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Presumably by this point we’re beginning to build a clear picture of what works and what doesn’t by studying and modelling all of the individual approaches

Analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective in controlling contagion. Estimating the degree of NPI effect has suggested some link between severity or restrictions and control (there is an index kept by Oxford University). The UK, falls about midway in this. The effects on the UK epidemic are relatively predictable now.

There are, however significant unknowns. For example; new strains? Are they more transmissible and/or more pathogenic? How does this manifest in data? What are the effect of vaccines? Will they reduce morbidity (strong evidence), mortality (weaker evidence) and what about spread (limited evidende)? And of course the big one? What IS the IFR? What are its predictors and is it different from country to country?

Clearly some countries seem to be hit hard with regards to deaths, whilst others less so. What bearing does underlying health and healthcare have one outcome. In an analysis of European excess mortality I conducted, countries with a poor record in past influenza epidemics, a high reliance on nursing homes and lower per capita spending, has significantly higher excess mortality.

I think you can guess where the UK falls on that scale. The UK sadly is the sick man of Europe, and we are paying for under investment in healthcare and poorer health and higher comorbidities. The US may have slightly higher comorbidity, but better healthcare.

For the record, I predict vaccines will have a large effect on morbidity, mortality and healthcare pressure, but I am not convinced they will have the massive effect on transmission people expect. I hope I’m wrong, but it is healthcare pressure that is keeping us under NPI restrictions, hence the relative optimism from the government. I also believe that cross reactivity to new strains will still afford some protection from disease. Again, less effect on transmission but reduced healthcare burden. I’m optimistic.

[tl:dr] restrictions work, they’re predictable now but there are new unknowns like emergent strains and vaccines. The UK is doing relatively poorly on the death front and this is explained by past decisions.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:15 am
 Tim
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It really annoys me when 'agreeing with the lockdown' is equated to 'wanting to be locked down'

It's such basic thinking.

I hate being locked down. However, I think that the government didn't do it quickly enough, sufficiently enough and did not execute it well enough.

That's why we still can't see our friends and family. The governments incompetence (and no doubt reacting to the whims of business lobbyists, which is a sign of incompetence in itself) has strung this pandemic out.

Hopefully people remember that next time they place their X, but I guess once again they will think that Labour are coming to rule like Stalin and vote for the silly haired idiot because he let them kill their own grandparents at Xmas.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:16 am
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Senior doctors want gap between Covid jabs halved

And for the record, I fundamentally disagree with the decision on extending the vaccine interval for the Pfizer vaccine. The data does not support it. And it’s my day job to use data to make those decisions at work. It does not pass the “bare-faced cheek test” for me if sat in front of the FDA (my usual test is could I defend this at a face to face regulator meeting).


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:22 am
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Thanks TiRed - what are your thoughts about the AZ one?
RM.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:28 am
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TiRed, very surprised that you say US has better healthcare than UK. Better for some, maybe. For the large underclass who are probably already most vulnerable to covid?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:37 am
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And for the record, I fundamentally disagree with the decision on extending the vaccine interval for the Pfizer vaccine. The data does not support it. And it’s my day job to use data to make those decisions at work. It does not pass the “bare-faced cheek test” for me if sat in front of the FDA (my usual test is could I defend this at a face to face regulator meeting).

Somewhat more encouraging news from Israel on single dosing....

https://www.ft.com/content/4d9fe80d-e604-4bbe-b0f8-fd4b8df9b7f1

Edit, link stopped working, but if you google “FT Israel” it should come up. Basically 93% had a strong antibody response after 21 days

A single shot of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine produces a robust antibody response within weeks, according to Israeli data that could help inform whether scarce global supplies can be stretched by delaying second doses.

At the Rambam Health Care Campus in northern Israel, 91 per cent of the 1,800 doctors and nurses that received the two dose vaccine showed a major presence of antibodies 21 days after their first shot, before receiving the second dose, according to Michael Halberthal, chief executive of the hospital. A further 2 per cent showed a moderate presence of antibodies.

“If 93 per cent had a major response three weeks after the first injection, this raises a good question, that you might rather be using the first injection on more people” said Dr Halberthal.

At the Sheba Medical Center, similar serological tests at different intervals showed at least 50 per cent of staff with a level of antibodies “above the cut-off point” two weeks after the first jab, said Arnon Afek, the associate director-general of the hospital chain.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:37 am
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The AZ trials used variable revaccination interval. There is data to support a 12 week interval for that vaccine. Hence I am happy with the decision. There are other challenges with the AZ vaccine - efficacy is lower, rechallenge might be an issue if you neutralise the adenovirus and need another. No data on the dose in the elderly. No sterile protection preclinically. But the longer interval is supported by trial data.

Pfizer has no data. They are not supportive. Moderna does have limited data and it looks not bad. Expecting one to follow the other is the foundation of this. I would have tested it in a UK open-label clinical trial. We would know in two months and that would have significant implications world-wide.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:41 am
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Think I get it, cheers for answering my question.
RM.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:58 am
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I would have tested it in a UK open-label clinical trial. We would know in two months and that would have significant implications world-wide.

Surely they are monitoring the 5M people who have had a single jab to see how effective it is?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:59 am
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What’s the uk control group? A randomised controlled trial with informed consent is the answer. People (including my FIL) consented to two doses 21 days apart based on published and approved data that the vaccine would be 94% effective. There is always an ethical consideration here. I’m all for data-driven decisions. But this was not that. It’s based on the timing of four events in a phase 3 trial.

That data from Israel is in line with the early phase trials. A solid immunogenic response from one dose. How long does it last? Does immunity decline faster than with a second dose? What’s the effect 12 weeks compared to two doses? At 24 weeks? 48? Moderna noted in their single dose phase 1 study that antibodies declined faster than they were expecting. They had longer follow-up data in a small number of subjects.

It’s why we do clinical trials. To control for confounding variables. In the uk, we won’t be taking 5m blood samples to test the titer before we redose. I hope we are taking some! What will we compare with?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 11:05 am
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In a month, if anyone is asking themselves how the South Africa super-evil-killer-variant made its way into the UK, it turns out that provided you're a "key worker" you become clean the moment you turn up at work after arrival in the UK.

So land in UK -> go home to self isolate -> 24 hours later report to work -> quarantine ends.

You can't make this shit up.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 11:13 am
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JJ, Instead of living in his car, could he not get a job at a supermarket and earn money to pay rent? (I guess maybe South of England financially that'd be harder than up here in the North West). It's what I've had to do, music career gone so it's either hand back the keys to my mortgage company, or swallow some pride and get a minimum wage job. Seems like a better option than being homeless.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 11:19 am
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@Tired - Agreed it’s not ideal. We do have 450K+ who have had the correct 2 doses, so hopefully they are monitoring the proportion of 2 dose vs 1 dose vs no dose on hospital admissions and new positive tests.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 11:26 am
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Do we know anything about how robust the vaccine supply chain is? What is the risk that the gap between vaccines is pushed beyond 12 weeks for some, due to supply chain issues?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 1:22 pm
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One of the big concerns for some vaccine-worriers is that by injecting them you are bypassing the initial layers of the body’s immune defence.

1. Is that concern just complete bollocks end of, or is there a disadvantage in going straight into the bloodstream?

2. Why is the Covid vaccine injected rather than inhaled like the virus itself?

3. Why does the vaccine have to be administered by a finite number of medical staff? Why not speed up the process with an injection or spray we could all self-administer?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 1:41 pm
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Posted : 23/01/2021 1:49 pm
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Is that concern just complete bollocks end of

Yes.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 1:51 pm
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2. Why is the Covid vaccine injected rather than inhaled like the virus itself?

For the same reason most other vaccines are injected?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 1:58 pm
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Don’t tell me, Kelvin, I missed this on page 162?

For the same reason most other vaccines are injected?

Which is?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:24 pm
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@chrispo to follow up your 3 questions, are you:

1. A troll.

2. Suffering from a recent head injury.

3. A regular crack smoker.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:27 pm
 Del
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play nice. those aren't unreasonable questions. i for one just accept but i don't pretend to have any knowledge of the whys and wherefores. i dropped biology in the third year.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 2:33 pm
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Do we know anything about how robust the vaccine supply chain is? What is the risk that the gap between vaccines is pushed beyond 12 weeks for some, due to supply chain issues?

Guy on BBC news this morning, calling for the 12 week gap to be cut back to 6 suggested that it's likely there will be too many people vaccinated needing the second jab at 12 weeks. Demand will outstrip supply. If we go back to 6 weeks, this shouldn't be an issue.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 3:02 pm
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@Tom-B: No, are you?

Pretty reasonable questions in the light of this trial, which is just one among many:

Covid nasal spray trial

“We found that administering this vaccine through a nasal spray completely protected the animals from shedding the virus which causes transmission of the virus. This means the immunization of the upper respiratory tract through a nasal spray can prevent individuals from spreading the virus”

A pretty crucial benefit over the current vaccines I would think?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 3:07 pm
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Basically injecting vaccines is completely tried and tested and understood. Aerosol delivery is promising but not yet tried and tested. Which system do you want to use, for this absolutely critical project?

But yes, it's something to watch for future deployments. Not useful just now.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 3:15 pm
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Aerosol delivery is promising but not yet tried and tested.

Yes it is. The flu vaccine is administered as a nasal spray to children every year


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:16 pm
 Chew
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Guy on BBC news this morning, calling for the 12 week gap to be cut back to 6 suggested that it’s likely there will be too many people vaccinated needing the second jab at 12 weeks. Demand will outstrip supply. If we go back to 6 weeks, this shouldn’t be an issue.

Untrue

The supply issues become apparent once you move onto second dosing people. At that point you need twice the supply to keep throughput the same. The longer the gap, the more time there is to upscale the levels of production to twice the initial amount.
So if supply is currently 300,000 vaccines a day, AZ need to get to 600,000 a day at the end of the 12 week period. If thats reduced to a 6 week period that issue becomes harder to resolve, as they only have half the time to do it.

If we cant get to the 600,000 supply figure then we may have to start to scale back on the people receiving first doses, but its less of an issue as we'll be moving onto the lower risk groups of society.

If you watch the Press Conferences you can see the conflict from Chris Whitty.
From a clinical perspective he'd like the gap to be shorter to provide better protection for the individual, but knows that with the supply constraints we currently have we can offer more people some kind of protection by making that gap longer.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:23 pm
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Not sure how to word this as it is not my subject but vaguely remember something about particles(?) at a quantum level and that if you change one then you change them all.
Then I heard the interview with Callum Semple where he said something along the lines of that the Brazil and South African variants could spontaneously appear in the UK in answer to a border control question. (Sky lunchtime news)

Does a virus constantly change and if so over what time scale?
What are the chances of the same variant occurring in isolation or could there be a quantum effect there?
I think I heard that the Kent variation has three changes to the sequence. In the whole of the sequence is there an identifiable area/string where these changes can only take place or can it be anywhere and how much would have to change before it became something else or would it always be just a variant?
Do I need to get out more?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:30 pm
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How much harder would modification of the AZ be than Pfizer for a mutated virus? Somebody mentioned 5 weeks for the mRNA versions. Does that make it posible to give a second dose at 3 months based on new strains?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:41 pm
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Not sure how to word this as it is not my subject but vaguely remember something about particles(?) at a quantum level and that if you change one then you change them all.

Quantum entanglement? The thing that Einstein called "spooky action at a distance".


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:43 pm
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Perfectly good questions:
1. Nonsense
2. The vaccines are not intact virus, but parts of the virus. Technically the mRNA are instructions not even parts. They are injected into sites that your immune system will see. The up-the-nose kids flu vaccine is an intact and very week virus that can be delivered the same way as the pathogen.
3. People might react badly and so need to be followed for 30 minutes to check they don’t have adverse reactions.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:48 pm
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@mariner viruses have slightly noisy correction for replication. So noise comes in just by chance after each generation. Some viruses are VERY noisy like HIV. SARS-COV2 is not that variable. But the virus is attacked by the immune system at a few key sites (called epitopes). Hence any virus change in a person can try and escape. This is a fitness advantage.

We have seen some elected mutations at sites under immune selection. The generation time for humans is 20 years. But for viruses it’s seconds. So opportunities for change are a natural part of the process. Fortunately, any immune response is sufficiently broad that there is still currently some control of these mutants.

Some larger pathogens like malaria have sex in the host. Two strains can combine to produce a very different strain. That’s unlikely but not out of the question for this virus. Particularly in patients who are immune compromised and may have persistent infection. That may have happened for the Kent strain to have acquired so many changes (21).


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:56 pm
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A great Twitter thread from a Conservative MP…

https://twitter.com/neildotobrien/status/1352980826112348160?s=21


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 4:56 pm
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Not sure I can disagree with FACT4, I'll be honest, but that's not just a Covid related opinion!


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 5:01 pm
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Don’t tell me, Kelvin, I missed this on page 162?

No, I just deleted my post, because I’d rather people more patient than me engaged with you. I was going to talk about the fact that you want the immune system to be triggered by a vaccine, rather than to bypass it. As for nasal, that’s how my son gets his flu vaccine… maybe further down the line we might have vaccines for this virus that we take in the same way… which for worldwide distribution would be great… but for now let’s get these early successful vaccines in people… they should have nothing to fear from them just because they are injected.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 5:06 pm
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Indeed. FACT 4 is spot on, just not in the way they are claiming, I'd imagine.

We seem to only be getting FACT 3 popping up here still occasionally.

Some larger pathogens like malaria have sex in the host. Two strains can combine to produce a very different strain. That’s unlikely but not out of the question for this virus.

So humans might be kind of like a hot tub for randy viruses?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 5:07 pm
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1. Is that concern just complete bollocks end of, or is there a disadvantage in going straight into the bloodstream?
2. Why is the Covid vaccine injected rather than inhaled like the virus itself?

Perfectly good questions:
1. Nonsense
2. The vaccines are not intact virus, but parts of the virus. Technically the mRNA are instructions not even parts. They are injected into sites that your immune system will see...

Also, re. Q1, am I right in saying the injections are intramuscular not intravenous?


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 5:37 pm
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From a clinical perspective he’d like the gap to be shorter to provide better protection for the individual, but knows that with the supply constraints we currently have we can offer more people some kind of protection by making that gap longer.

Indeed, 480,000 vaccinations yesterday


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 5:47 pm
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They are intramuscular, if they were iv then I doubt the vaccination rate would be anywhere near what it is now


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 5:54 pm
 Chew
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Indeed, 480,000 vaccinations yesterday

If they keep going at the same rate as they have over the past 7 days then they won’t be far off the 15m number on the 14th Feb.

That date is 10 weeks after the programme started (8th Dec), so I’d be expecting then to start to bring people back for there second dose at that point.

Also at the rate case numbers are dropping, the 14th should be the point at which they back at low levels.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 6:17 pm
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Not sure if it's already been posted on here, but here's a pretty shocking covid story written by a chap called Tim Hayward who ended up in ICU in November and has suffered some serious long term physical and psychological effects since

Feels very close to home as he's sometime I have a vague connection to

https://www.ft.com/content/2b0dbba3-6fe8-4c2d-8cca-90e87261d436


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 7:11 pm
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Reads like an Iain Banks novel at times, doesn’t it.

A bit of a summary for those not clicking through…

…people in the profession have warned that we’re unprepared for the mental health implications of the pandemic and I can’t disagree. I wasn’t expecting to spend 2 weeks palpably & certifiably insane.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 7:28 pm
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Well, my Aunt is home from hospital, so I feel free to share her tale. She is head of nursing for a care home… should probably be retired really, ex forces, you’ll never stop her keeping useful and helping people… anyway, they managed to keep the virus out all through 2020… no loses, no cases… her ferociousness as regards staffing & training is probably part of that. Being in North Yorkshire likely the bigger reason. But it’s now 2021… and we, the UK, completely messed up the final months of last year. Fact not opinion. So, the virus was finally brought in by someone… followed by a few sudden weeks of many deaths amongst those looked after, and many staff positive and ill. She and others ended up hospitalised… trust me, she wouldn’t have been in there if she could have avoided it. Apparently she was a right pain in the arse while in there… they are currently very short staffed and drug administration and the most basic forms of care were being missed… never mind the niceties of “caring” for patients… and she wasn’t shy of complaining when the treatment she had been told she needed wasn’t happening. So… she’s at home alone now, with a blood oxygen meter monitored remotely from the hospital… no doubt watching the planes take off and land from her window while she waits (she bought the tiny house because of traffic from the RAF base, not despite it).


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 7:40 pm
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Kelvin your aunt sounds fantastic. I hope she is on the mend. These people are disciplined, they know what’s what and can smell disorganisation a mile away.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 7:56 pm
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if they were iv then

They probably wouldn’t work. The vaccine is taken up with dendritic cells also known as antigen presenting cells in tissue. These are scanned by T helper cells that then B tell clones that match the epitope to get expanding and start producing antibodies against that target. The tissue part is important.

The nasal flu virus is a mild infection that protects against the real thing. Cowpox worked the same for smallpox. Polio is also alive virus. There are attenuated viruses for covid too, and killed virus, but these have looked less impressive


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:10 pm
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I thought they were trying as hard as they could to phase out the use of the sabin polio vaccine due to the frequency of vaccine related infections due to it regaining a level of virulence


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:26 pm
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Well, back from another day at the vaccine centre. I think I did 30 or so people. and then was the floor walker for a bit. The IT is the thing that slows it all down if I'm honest, It just doesn't seem to be stable, thanks to all the volunteers we got it done. I've also got to say the Pts are remarkably cheerful  and happy with it all though, our waiting area is in the middle of all the booths, so folk can chatter amongst themselves (all socially distanced) and it genuinely lovely to see all the oldies nattering with each other regardless of creed or colour (some of them haven't been out of their houses for 10 months). We had a couple of breaks for prayers (we're in a religious building) and everyone was v respectful, and the the local RC priest came over to help make tea, and have a natter. It's very community feels

Knackered now though...

Back tomorrow, and then back to proper work for a bit to see what damage has been going on haha...


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:52 pm
 Del
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good on you fella.

quick chat with my neighbour earlier. she's an old lady, lost her husband a few years ago and living on in the house they bought new when it was built (mid 80s). good old girl. had both jabs and she's well pleased. so am i.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:55 pm
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EDIT: Not paywalled, apols


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 8:59 pm
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Well done nickc - and thanks for what you do.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 9:06 pm
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...and deliberation may have made matters worse

I feel you are being overly generous there TiRed. I can't see deliberation in any of this only dogma and the deluded view of a PM who seems to believe Borosian Prose is a valid approach to running a country.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 10:55 pm
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Thanks Nick. Keep at it!

My mum is looking forward excitedly to her turn… should be soon. They don’t have areas for the 15 minute post injection observation though… it’s straight in and out… they don’t have the space. Is it only one of the vaccines that they are advising the patients are observed for any issues, or both of them? Is it wise to arrange someone to be with her? She’s miles from any of the rest of us (thank Jobs for FaceTime).


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 11:52 pm
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My mum had the Oxford AZ vaccine today. There was no observation area, but she was advised to sit in her car for 15 minutes before driving off.


 
Posted : 23/01/2021 11:58 pm
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I had mine done in the staff service at the local hospital - slick as anything. I had to sit in a room for 15 mins which I thought was mandatory


 
Posted : 24/01/2021 12:03 am
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Good news TJ. Did you faint?


 
Posted : 24/01/2021 12:06 am
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Nearly Kelvin. but kept it together very bravely. I didn't get a lollipop tho the rats!


 
Posted : 24/01/2021 12:07 am
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Glad it’s done.


 
Posted : 24/01/2021 12:08 am
 Del
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good for you tj.

my > 80 year old neighbour (presumably - one does not ask) compared trump to boris during our discussion. my response was that i thought trump had grown up very privileged but had basically never been told 'no' or properly educated. boris on the other hand has benefited from the finest education available in this country. he chooses to act the way he does. he doesn't do it through outright ignorance. he knows better. he just chooses not to act better.

(the last part i did not express to my neighbour!)


 
Posted : 24/01/2021 12:29 am
 Del
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I didn’t get a lollipop tho the rats!

the inhumanity! 😀


 
Posted : 24/01/2021 12:29 am
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I still feel a bit guilty as I am not working in a red zone right now but I did delay a few weeks from when I could have got it

At least my parents have a date now to get theirs - tuesday

I know Del - I thought it was part of the deal! I was so brave!


 
Posted : 24/01/2021 12:31 am
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