This app farce is just obscene. Somehow, the British government procured an app that recognises 75% of Google devices with which it has contact (not good), and only 4% of Apple devices.
4%!! So if a super-spreader of COVID comes into contact with 50 iPhone users, it will pick up 2 of them.How is that even possible?!
Because the Apple OS doesn't let Bluetooth LE run in the background. The developers used a few tricks to keep it active, but it obviously didn't work on the IOW.
The Apple/Google version isn't great either according to the briefing this morning.
I think this tech has been oversold - back to manual contact tracing, I reckon.
Let’s take the averages of the provided figures, so the incubation period is 5.5 days, and you are contagious for the 48 hours before that. You notice the symptoms a day after the incubation period, self-isolate, and then it takes 4 days to get your test, send it back, and get the result. We’re now on day 10.5, and you can inform the track and trace system. However, you were out and about up to day 6.5 in this best-case scenario, and contagious from day 3.5 onwards. In those three days, let’s say you saw 30 people. Those 30 people have now had up to 7 days to spread the disease, which is plenty of time to start a second and third chain. You’d quickly end up with thousands of people to contact from a single case, unless you ignore the secondary chain effect, in which case there isn’t much point to the whole thing.
Yes. Stopping something this infectious is hard.
T&T in isolation has no chance. Which is why we will need continued social distancing, some elements of lockdown, including local lockdowns where appropriate (and yes, I don't know how you do it, but it's been done in other countries).
All this is the product of poor decisions taken in March. But that's where we are.
For absolute ****s sake. Can this get government get ANYTHING right first time?
It's fair to say that most techy types saw the move to the Google/Apple model as inevitable.... just more wasted time as always.
The governments real sound bite through all this should be, "mañana mañana".
We will see about NZ. The most recent news is not the most encouraging.
Manual contact tracing is always the main show in town, and a distributed app second… but we need both… partly because different demographics respond better for each… no one in their right mind expects contact tracing between an older more distributed population on the Isle of Wight to work the same way as for a more youthful population in a large university city centre.
You are aware that other countries have apps based on the Google/Apple approach live already? When can we download one here?
4 AFAIK, Canada, Germany, Poland and Italy. Be v. interested to know if they are working.
The point of my maths was to show…
Whatever the maths… for contact tracing to be practical, you need as few new cases as possible. All the concerns you are showing about the huge task in New Zealand because of 2 new cases increase exponentially if trying to use track/trace/isolate here while we have thousands.
Forget the app performance. Barely anyone will install it - yhihf
4 AFAIK, Canada, Germany, Poland and Italy.
Switzerland were first, I think.
Hancock's leading the briefing. I'll shall watch to see Robert Peston get cut off after asking about his social distancing techniques...
All the concerns you are showing about the huge task in New Zealand because of 2 new cases increase exponentially if trying to use track/trace/isolate here while we have thousands.
I understand - my point is that it wouldn't take many cases at all to completely overwhelm the system, which doesn't make it very useful. I also don't see the point unless it captures the majority of potential cases, which I can't see happening.
We will see how NZ does - they recently admitted that a number of people left quarantine early, as well as a new case that flew in from abroad.
my point is that it wouldn’t take many cases at all to completely overwhelm the system
Agreed. You need a very low number of cases for it to be useful, and it still requires a *lot* of manpower even then. And a working contact tracking app could help, but is no silver billet.
I think this tech has been oversold – back to manual contact tracing, I reckon.
It's a macguffin.
You need the local setup of track and trace boots on floor mask to mask.
call centres and apps well... dido.
I don’t disagree, but you wanted this er like a month ago and we are in the middle of a pandemic,its not normal times, you don’t have the luxury of time.
All the stuff I wrote about is not "nice-to-haves". It's fundamental requirements you need to satisfy to deliver a working system. Writing an app really quickly that doesn't actually do the required job is actually wasting time, not speeding things up.
Look at the end result of the "accelerated development". The official line is that they don't expect to deliver a working app before the end of the year. How confidently would you bet on a working app ever being delivered and adopted by the general population? In a crisis situation you don't have the luxury of wasting time.
The official line is that they don’t expect to deliver a working app before the end of the year
Hold your horses. Its official, its Apples fault. Its not a U turn.
Look at the end result of the “accelerated development”. The official line is that they don’t expect to deliver a working app before the end of the year.
And, anyone going to place a small wager on that new date slipping again, before we reach the end of the year?
Writing an app really quickly that doesn’t actually do the required job is actually wasting time, not speeding things up.
Half a job always but always comes back to bite twice as hard. I agree, I do software.
Can this get government get ANYTHING right first time?
I think A lot of us would settle for getting it right eventually.
Sadly what we are ultimately saddled with is 'not getting it right ever' in most everything it goes near.
He did try really hard to put a lot of emphasis on the 'fact' that it was Apple's fault didn't he! It was their refusal to change how their tech works that means his app doesn't work on their devices. The exact issue that was flagged up at the very beginning.
The question now is how long will it take for them to build an app built on the Google/Apple system compared to other countries. Surely all it would take is to ask one go the countries that have it working, take that and apply a different skin? But then that would be too simple wouldn't it.
Surely all it would take
My lifetime of experience in software says that phrase spells instant doom for a project. Along with the words "just" (as in, "can you just") and "simple" (as in, "this should be simple") both of which are a gnat's cock away from a red faced customer shouting "JUST MAKE IT WORK" as they fail to understand any of even the most basic issues the project has to tackle and realise their promises to their own customers will now bankrupt them.
half a job always but always comes back to bite twice as hard. I agree, I do software.
It's a compromise, the art is actually delivering close and improving with updates rather than delivering nothing at all.
Its a phone after all not a medical device, the whole things an almighty bodge 🙂
Along with the words “just” (as in, “can you just”) and “simple” (as in, “this should be simple”)
Can we add in the question/statement: "It won't take you too long to do that, will it?" normally mouthed by someone who hasn't a ****ing clue what's entailed ie: a government minister
He did try really hard to put a lot of emphasis on the ‘fact’ that it was Apple’s fault didn’t he!
He claims Apple can’t measure distance accurately. Given the range of BT… is that a big deal, even if true? If you’ve been in the same waiting room as someone for half an hour… how important is it that they were sat four chairs away, or six?
Just heard his spin again. They are good at this, 90% will buy the “we can fix their system with our superior approach” line… getting people to take away the exact opposite of what is actually happening, in your favour, is top level bullshit. That’s how you sell a totally predictable failure as success. Everyone clap…
All the stuff I wrote about is not “nice-to-haves”. It’s fundamental requirements you need to satisfy to deliver a working system.
Is there a published list of the FR and NFR? (or is this a matter of national security?)
He claims Apple can’t measure distance accurately. Given the range of BT… is that a big deal, even if true? If you’ve been in the same waiting room as someone for half an hour… how important is it that they were sat four chairs away, or six?
The impression I got from the briefing this morning is you got more granularity with our app compared with Apple's implementation. So with Apple, you either get a contact registered with the phone out, but nothing with it in your pocket. All or nothing.
So our app was actually giving a more accurate registration of contacts in real use (when it worked of course, which isn't often on Apple).
Didn't watch the ukgov briefing, I did think one of the motivators for Apple doing this at all was avoiding bad PR.
It’s a compromise, the art is actually delivering close and improving with updates rather than delivering nothing at all.
Its a phone after all not a medical device, the whole things an almighty bodge
It's not just a phone app. It is an entire system which has to securely and reliably manage confidential data about the location and status of millions of people.
Doesn't have to be thou,
Germany switched solutions and has an app out but in pursuit of our world class app
we've got ,excuse my french, 'fk all' when we're rushing out of lockdown.
Ignoring all the countries already using an app, some based on open source solutions, some bespoke, some built on the Google&Apple stuff… is the only way you can claim that it’s unreasonable to expect us to have one available ourselves now.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_apps
I haven't so far downloaded the French app. I listened to the situations that would trigger it and realised that it wouldn't have picked up any contacts since deconfinement.
When I'm swimming my phone is in the locker, I might get a false contact if someone put their phone in the next locker but not a real one from someone sharing the swimming lane. I gave a hitch-hiker a lift, my phone was switched off in the boot because I was driving. Madame teaches hundreds of kids but phones are banned in school... . Anyone else I was close to for more than a minute or two I know and share a WhatsApp group with so they could let everybody know without needing the app.
The TTI is basically bollocks, only a small proportion of cases are diagnosed in the first place (if you believe the ONS data which seems the best we have). Then the time scale is incredibly challenging, if I feel ill today, order a test tomorrow, get it Sat and return ASAP, maybe get a result on Monday if I'm really really lucky (Tuesday more likely) and the people I infected yesterday will already have most likely passed it on before they are contacted in the middle of next week. It could only catch a fraction of possible cases before they develop symptoms. At least a phone app could be slightly quicker (though it won't shortcut the testing delays).
I’ve said for ages we have wasted our testing capacity on symptomatic people.
We need to find the ones who have just got it or are asymptomatic.
We need to know where the likely catching places are (trains, hospitals, supermarkets, factories, whatever) and testing the hell out of them!
On the subject of "delivering as close as possible":
The government now intends to launch an app in the autumn, however it says the product may not involve contact tracing at that point.
Instead the software may be limited to enabling users to report their symptoms and order a test.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336
Delivering a contact tracing app that Hancock claimed was going to be available in May, but without the contact tracing bit...In other words, around 6 months to deliver an online ordering system for testing kits, which can already be ordered over the phone.
I reckon they will spend a few more million on the project, get to the end of the year, announce that the app is no longer required, and hope everyone forgets about the whole thing.
So james cleverly has been wheeled out to front-up for the tories on QT.
Defend the indefensible - send out cleverly; judging by his name he should do well.
Another clown.
James not-so-Cleverley is often wheeled out on QT. He's such an ignoramus that it's pointless trying to discuss anything with him.
Ah, Laura Kuennsberg is back on form, "sources" have told her that the reason the government, sorry, NHS's track and trace app is a disaster is because of big tech companies being unhelpful.
Yep Apple won’t enable the IOS Unicorn proximity sensor.
‘Technology’ also available for borders and any other tick box,sound bite,daily briefing need you have.
If you look at countries that have been more successful in managing COVID-19 but still had flare-ups again - e.g. China and NZ - I think it is more of question of when and not if it gets out of control here. And there is no way they'll do lockdown again.
I think it is more of question of when and not if it gets out of control here.
It would need to be unfer control in order to get out of control again.
And there is no way they’ll do lockdown again.
Indeed. We're now on the Sweden approach. "Good old British common sense", whatever the hell that is. Presumably every other country must have a more effective version of common sense then.
Anyone know what the current alert level is?
I can't find it on google.
Is it being quietly shelved as it might interfere with getting out of lockdown?
It’s not just a phone app. It is an entire system
Until the FR and NFR for the MMP are published its speculation.
I strongly suspect the NFR states it "must not use any pre-existing technology" like the ventilators.
James Cleverly, MP for Braintree (the only thing he's memorable for).
I want to know how much NHS money Dido and her Tory MP husband have trousered for abject failure.
Anyone know what the current alert level is?
I can’t find it on google.
Is it being quietly shelved as it might interfere with getting out of lockdown?
Yeah it's hidden right out of the way
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers-on-the-uk-alert-level
Instead the software may be limited to enabling users to report their symptoms and order a test.
Holy Jesus on a stick.
I could write an app that does this in about 20 minutes.
What is Dominic Cummings's mate's firm spending their £8,000,000 on?
Well, Apple have said that they have no idea what Hancock was on about yesterday. Surprise, surprise.
[ no link yet, only reported behind Times paywall and on Daily Mail website so far ]
Interesting the Mail have the app as the front page, while Express went for Vera Lynn.
The Mail seem to be happy to hit out at the government they got elected? Will it away their readership? I doubt it
Italy have now confirmed cases in Bologna last November and cases in Milan and Turin last December - they've retested wastewater samples:
Combined with the Harvard Med School analysis of traffic movements at Wuhan hospitals late summer last year everything is now pointing to a huge cover up by China:
China waited 6 months to tell the WHO about Covid and many economies (including ours) are now collapsing as a result.
On the app front - other countries have reportedly had the same issues - australia, singapore and germany most recently:
Many governments have struggled with Apple and Google's refusal to lift some of the background constraints on bluetooth access so the UK NHS is in good company. Norway is considering a change for the same reason.
Lady being interviewed on pm last night, in response to Evan Daly's question 'couldn't we just take another country's code and change the language?' mentioned uruguay had got an app together in 5 days...
No more detail than that I'm afraid. Just caught it while I was walking dogs.