Meanwhile, IDS in economy-more-important-than-peoples-lives shocker:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53003046
I could plausibly see that some people could be uncontactable
That’s the beauty of the Apple/Google system… there is no need to accept a call from someone who claims to be acting in your interest… no need to know the phone number of anyone else… the app can tell you all you need to know, and tells those you have been in contact with (not your “contacts” in your address book). Secure and private. That’s what many people (rightly) expect.
Let's face it, the much-lauded app is never happening. The manual track-and-trace system isn't up to the job as it relies on the full cooperation of the infected person and their contacts.
It's one giant farce. If it was handed to you as a script for a sitcom you'd laugh at it for being implausible. Sadly it's out reality.
When they said world class they didn't state by what metric.
Let’s face it, the much-lauded app is never happening. The manual track-and-trace system isn’t up to the job as it relies on the full cooperation of the infected person and their contacts.
I’m really not getting the app situation.
I put an app in for Apple approval yesterday morning and it was approved for sale by the evening.
The iOS api Trackandtrace bits are in place they could have rolled something out quick without looking like muppets, I really don’t get it.
I really don’t get it.
Ask Cummings and the Warner bros.
I really don’t get it.
Perfect data is the enemy of the good (and anonymous). See testing...
I do not believe in exceptionalism, I believe in the law of large numbers. See apple counting above, which really made me laugh.
I've said before, the more numerate the person, the less store one places on absolute numbers (unless you are calculating the fine structure constant).
TiRed - thanks for linking to the fine structure constant.
Can you provide a link to a translation into simple english?
It is a dimensionless constant (1/137 ish) that captures the fundamental physical constants. Measurement of the constants (like speed of light and electron charge) is fundamental and done by multiple methods and then the calculation made. The number is known to about one part in a billion!
It is also a free parameter on the theory of quantum electrodynamics (relativistic electricity and magnetism), so to make calculations using the theory, you need an accurate value. The more accurate, the better the model will predict stuff.
The theory of how electricity and magnetism interact at relativistic speeds is the most precisely validated model in existence.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_tests_of_QED
George Box was wrong. Some models are right. This is one 🙂
Not sure if this goes in the coronavirus thread or the Boris Johnson thread but it's applicable to either!
Grim reading:
So, do I take it one over one hundred and thirty seven supplants forty two?
Easing of restrictions doesn't seem to be causing any spike in new cases:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53021671
I raised this on another thread too...
The Track and Trace system running in England is notifying an average of 6 contacts per positive test. That seems very high to me given the criteria (in Scotland the average is 1.5 contacts). In my case, it would be 2 (wife and daughter). In my wife's case it would be around 10 or 12 (she is doing community care). So, I can see there are some exceptions, but 6 as an average?
Bear in mind that the people catching it are pretty much by definition those who have most contact, whether through choice or as an unavoidable consequence of their situations.
Also, are the contacts really limited to the 2m 15 min thing or is it broader than that?
The key in determining the value of the system is in how many of next week's cases were already self-isolating when they came down with the disease (or rather, self-isolating a day or two before they noticed symptoms, when they were most likely to be passing it on). If that isn't happening to a significant degree, it's a complete waste of time.
Easing of restrictions doesn’t seem to be causing any spike in new cases:
In this analysis, 19,933 people from 9,179 households carried out their own swab tests of their throat and nose, which look for the presence of the virus.
Just 11 individuals from eight households tested positive for coronavirus, allowing statisticians to come up with estimates for the whole population.
Encouraging, but my only follow-up question is about the reliability of data from nasal swabs carried out by untrained individuals. It's supposedly a pretty uncomfortable thing to reach the right spot.
So, I can see there are some exceptions, but 6 as an average?
Well, it is pretty much exactly the average figure in the example you gave of you and your wife so is it suprising? TBH I think the Scottish figure seems low. Surely to have caught it you must have met a few people. To get an average of 1.5 there must be a lot of 1s and quite a few 0s which seems way too low.
ONS survey data also includes throat swab data, you don't have to swab the back of your nasal passage. I think the procedure was supervised by a health visitor, as it was a pilot to study whether people can take reliable swabs tests. There is also an antibody test component to the study.
BTW the data in totality is
Out of the 19,933 participants' swab tests included in this analysis, 11 individuals in 8 households tested positive for COVID-19. As this is a household survey,
instantaneous prevalence surveys need a big net.
In this analysis, 19,933 people from 9,179 households carried out their own swab tests of their throat and nose, which look for the presence of the virus.
Just 11 individuals from eight households tested positive for coronavirus, allowing statisticians to come up with estimates for the whole population.
My wife has had to swab people in the hospital she works at and she says that quite a few people who swab themselves don't do it properly because they don't go deep enough in the throat.
Cheers Tired...how does the figure tally with your forecasting?
Well, it is pretty much exactly the average figure in the example you gave of you and your wife so is it suprising?
🙂 Well, I guess there are very few folk doing any role that exposes them quite so much to community infection as my wife is, so I put her at the "extreme" end. I was tempted to start a thread with some sort of poll but didn't want to start yet another Coronavirus thread.
A bit encouraging:
https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-death-rates-wont-fall-as-quickly-as-they-rose-139947
ONS survey data also includes throat swab data, you don’t have to swab the back of your nasal passage. I think the procedure was supervised by a health visitor, as it was a pilot to study whether people can take reliable swabs tests.
I am one of the households involved in the study. In our case (family of 5) we have not been supervised. I think this was in part due to a lack of PPE; when we were initially contacted the nurse could not make the appointment for another week or so as they had not received any.
When they eventually did make it, the tests were dropped on the doorstep and they waited while we took them. The only guidance we were given was to watch the video on the government website, but certainly with regard to the nasal part, it was unclear how far in to go to take the swabs. We have now had 5 tests each over the past few weeks and the health visitor has dropped them on the doorstep each time.
I discussed with the visitor and I think we did it correctly, but we have no real way of knowing for sure unless we end up with a positive result (and my wife and I think we both had it back in April anyway).
Cheers Tired…how does the figure tally with your forecasting?
Half-life is 10-14 days, decline by July. Nothing has really changed in terms of prediction. Now looking at local outlier region identification, as this may be more informative as we see the back of the epidemic. Unlocking may extend this tail, but We will see about a rise in new cases and admissions.
My other half’s parents were part of the survey. The test packs never arrived. She is being into future sampling herself now. We’ll see what happens…
it was unclear how far in to go to take the swabs.
Just out of morbid curiosity - how far in are you supposed to stick the thing. I watched the NHS vidoe and the bloke didn't seem to stick it in very far at all, but others say you have to be practically poking your brains out.
Just out of morbid curiosity – how far in are you supposed to stick the thing. I watched the NHS vidoe and the bloke didn’t seem to stick it in very far at all, but others say you have to be practically poking your brains out.
Tbh we never got a definite answer. With our swabs we did both throat and nose, throat first obvs! We were told that the throat one was important, its not very pleasant and makes you gag a bit. We then poked it up noses, but tbh trying to do that to a 7, 8 and 10 year old meant we didn't push too hard. On my own ones, I went up an inch or so, no idea if that was suitable or not.
Down the throat till you gag and then some. Back of the nose till it won't go any further and you sneeze. It's a long way in! The study is looking at whether throat swabs are as reliable - and self-swabbing - for obvious reasons. Only children poke things that far into their nose.
You don't go up, you go "in"!
Thanks TiRed, I suspect ours were not as reliable as they could be then...
TiRed
Did they also type viruses from outside the UK, or just UK samples and compare with reference? The null hypothesis could be that the virus also changed in Italy and Spain, so the changes acquired are independent, but the same in non-mixing countries. Maybe.
I didn't read the paper but that was my first thought and I thought it was "just me".
I did a test yesterday afternoon after waking up with a mild fever (38C) which has since gone. Having interacted with plenty of people in an enclosed environment over the last few days it seemed sensible to get tested.
Went online and booked in, slots were available within 30 minutes. No other cars at the test site. I went through the "key workers" link although no ID required.
The tonsil swabbing was the hardest but only to the extent of not accidentally touching my tongue or cheek.
Instructions say to only insert the swab 2.5cm into your nose. Even that was pretty uncomfortable so wouldn't want the full brain-tickler. Better results obviously from the brain violation but apparently it makes you sneeze, spreading the virus.
Kit could be better designed and ship in a cardboard box instead of about six plastic bags. Would provide a work area in the car and keep everything together, and the instructions could be printed on the inside of the lid.
Just awaiting the results now. Personal suspicion is that the chance of a positive test is near zero.
Result came back in 36 hours - negative.
👌🏻 good news flaperon
Result came back in 36 hours – negative.
but what does that mean ??
(not a critcism btw...)
Im probably missing the obvious but where is the daily count for covid deaths on the BBC website?, cant find it mentioned anywhere?
Im probably missing the obvious but where is the daily count for covid deaths on the BBC website?, cant find it mentioned anywhere?
This is part of what I was alluding to last week, its almost as if its a non issue now.
I fear so kryton, Lead story on the BBC UK page is Sunak says it is safe for the public to shop again, stinks of propaganda to me
Was mentioned on BBC news last night, think it was 180 yesterday, but the actual daily death toll has been hidden away online for a month now.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
Only Belgium out in front.
C'mon Britain, you can do this!
Why should the BBC have a daily count? All it is doing is reporting what the UK Government site Track Coronavirus is saying.
Im probably missing the obvious but where is the daily count for covid deaths on the BBC website?, cant find it mentioned anywhere?
BBC Scotland are still carrying a daily update on the Scottish figures but it's obviously become less important in England now, even though the deaths per head of population figure is running at around 3 times the Scottish numbers. It's almost like they don't want anyone making comparisons.
Well, in tin foil hat mode I've just been browsing worldometer and it was appear our daily cases/and deaths are rising slightly, which although unfortunate is of no surprise.
May thats why its not on the news...
BBC Scotland are still carrying a daily update on the Scottish figures but it’s obviously become less important in England now, even though the deaths per head of population figure is running at around 3 times the Scottish numbers.
Is it?
With 4,000 deaths from a population of 5.454 million people, the rate of coronavirus deaths in Scotland has reached 733 for every million, behind England on 767 and Belgium on 842.
www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scotland-coronavirus-death-rate-third-worst-world-2880962%3famp
Or are you referring to a different metric?
Why should the BBC have a daily count? All it is doing is reporting what the UK Government site Track Coronavirus is saying
BBC is the primary news source in this country.
The death rate and positive tests are at best plateauing, if not slightly rising...
Sounds a perfectly reasonable time to rush a 2m social distancing review by 4th July to keep our Brexit friend, Wetherspoons Tim, happy. :rolleyes:
Is it?
Is running at
7 day total for UK - 1,197.
7 day total for Scotland - 32
edit : my bad, wrong thread.