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Here's a proper conspiracy for you. 🙂
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf+html
TLDR: Some unusual genome content in this coronavirus - some sequences similar to HIV 'unlikely to be fortuitous in nature'.
and where is the only BSL level 4 high security virus research facility in China? Seems coincidentally close to a certain market in a certain Chinese city.
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Tangjiadun+Residential+District+%E5%94%90%E5%AE%B6%E5%A2%A9/Si+Huan+Xian+Chu+Kou,+Jiangxia+Qu,+Wuhan+Shi,+Hubei+Sheng,+China/ @30.5218692,114.1905268,11.5z/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x342ea936ab988553:0x595610b555b02fe2!2m2!1d114.268551!2d30.621273!1m5!1m1!1s0x342eb68f4436c7e3:0xf4225979de861592!2m2!1d114.2542247!2d30.4082768
The paper is interesting, although flawed - will be interesting to see what else pops up as the virologists look at it.
What the actual ****....
Yeah, very interested to see if that conclusion is replicated.
https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/ews938/uncanny_similarity_of_unique_inserts_in_the/
Published on biorxiv (not peer reviewed).
I'm not sure what they are implying exactly, but maybe that there was genetic exchange between the coronavirus and HIV.
I do not find their analysis convincing at all. The "inserts" that they highlight are the part of the spike protein that makes contact with the host cell. You would expect those to be by far the most variable regions on the protein. They also are taking advantage of the fact that a LOT of HIV has been sequenced and their "inserts" they chose are very small. Lots of chances for false positive matches, low stringency to reject them. They also are on proteins with different functions in HIV. GP120 binds cells, but Gag is the virus structural protein that's inside the cell.
The inserts spots they chose are completely arbitrary. There are chunks that are effectively not aligned at all with the SARS spike protein, and saying this part or that one in the un-aligned stretch is the insert is arbitrary. If they had aligned with a hundred other coronaviruses you'd probably see that the regions are generally hypervariable and the similarity they used to anchor where the insert was is actually not conserved.
They ignored at least one other significant region that's very different from SARS. Why? Probably because they couldn't get a low quality match to HIV there.
I think we need to wait before we decide the Chinese have released a weaponized virus.
Just woken up with symptoms of a cold. 😱
Me too Kryton 😕
If either of you have small framed bikes I'll happily come and collect in my biohaz suit as you'll no longer be needing them...
So this is interesting because I need to - late next week - travel to the US for work. What's gong to happen if I turn up at check in with an obvious cold?
Beep beep beep... breaking news:
Australia have just banned any non-Aus citizen (plus a few other exceptions) visitors from mainland China.
New academic year starts in a couple of weeks - university of Syd was expecting about 20-30,000 new undergrads to arrive from China. Whoops.
So on the conspiracy theory front... there’s a photo doing the rounds on social media showing that written on the back of a liquid Dettol bottle, Dettol destroys Coronavirus. So it’s neither new, unknown, or indefensible.
The coronavirus family has been around for a very long time- some variants are one of the viruses that cause the common cold.
When the words "novel coronavirus" appear on the back of a Dettol bottle, that'll be a worry.
A lot of coronaviruses originate in bats, there has been an ongoing research project to identify them and to develop means to protect against them. Unfortunately, said research has been cut back since the SARS outbreak, in a typical ‘out of sight, out of mind’ mindset that humans are sadly prone to.
We don’t need stupid conspiracy bullshit trying to connect HIV with things like the coronavirus, when it’s almost certain that both are zoonotic anyway, and that there are people with an almost pathological desire to kill and eat any damned thing regardless of whether it’s worth eating!
https://www.inverse.com/science/scientists-saw-coronavirus-coming-warning-us-for-decades
I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I'm struggling to get past the fact that the scientist in that article issuing the warning about a virus outbreak of this type work in Wuhan.
I was out and about in central London today and there was a surprisingly large amount of people wearing medical face masks
Zero hedge have apparently found the culprit.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic
Quiet quiet today in the local main city and town not to far from Arrowe park,
I think we need to wait before we decide the Chinese have released a weaponized virus
”...on their own people”!
Well, it's not like they have a shortage of people and their military strategy is all about wave assaults...
Saw my first mask wearing person today in central Stockholm. A child at school. I have not checked to see whether surgical masks are generally available to people.
Sorry to bump this, but I have a question.
If someone in a quarantine area, (one of those cruise ships or Arrowe Park hospital for example) gets infected 12 days into the 14 day period, does the clock re-start for everyone else just in case they've spread it? The news items I've seen about it definitely doesn't show people individually holed up.
Here’s a proper conspiracy for you. 🙂
The conspiracy theories have already gone full swing in the far east.
Sorry to bump this, but I have a question.
If someone in a quarantine area, (one of those cruise ships or Arrowe Park hospital for example) gets infected 12 days into the 14 day period, does the clock re-start for everyone else just in case they’ve spread it? The news items I’ve seen about it definitely doesn’t show people individually holed up.
Was thinking the same, the clock should really reset
I can't see it being contained here. People are too mobile, and probably too pig-headed to take any precautions. S'ok though, I'm sure we can all trust in the safe hands of Matt Hancock. Wonder how many hospitals we can build in 10 days?
My friends were in Finland to see the northern lights. The place they stayed had 4 hotels. A chinese person was confirmed with the virus and had visited 3 of the hotels.
My friends developed stinking colds. To return to the UK they had a coach journey to the airport , a flight then a train journey in the Uk.
They were then told to quarantine themselves for a week at home.
Door,bolt,horse.
Following on from dazh above..... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761
Alcohol containing handgel and disinfectant now on the shopping list; over-reaction? Possibly.
The government must now know that containment is impossible (at least not without basically ****ing the economy). So measures like self-isolation, which reduce but do not prevent spread, are seeking to move back the point at which the impact on the NHS increases significantly, perhaps by a month or so, so it's not running concurrently with normal winter pressures.
Unfortunately, the NHS is not known for having much extra capacity, even out of flu season.
The cruise ship situation is mental, though. Isolation should mean proper isolation, not allowing them to mingle and effectively reset the clock for everyone with every new case that emerges. Some of those poor buggers will be stuck on there for months at this rate.
Given that they were also reporting a 20% mortality rate in hte worst affected chinese province I'm not sure anything is an over-reaction! Althouh more conseravtive estimates are between 3-5%
Its only going to keep spreading unless there are global travel restrictions. Sounds insane but if it really is 20% mortality, insane measures might make sense.
Sounds insane but if it really is 20% mortality, insane measures might make sense.
It's not. There is still no clear picture of how many people are getting it, not getting all that ill, and not seeking medical attention, so mortality is going to be much lower than initial reports suggested.
But the lower end of your conservative estimate is still pretty alarming.
Its only going to keep spreading unless there are global travel restrictions. Sounds insane but if it really is 20% mortality, insane measures might make sense.
There's a fun little game you can play on mobile caled "Plague inc".
If you want your virus to destroy the world (in the game obvs), it has to be a low level danger for a while so it spreads easily until you get it to mutate into something nasty. Ideally, you want something where the corpses are still contagious.
Kicking off properly in Brighton now
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18223764.coronavirus-brighton-live-updates-four-new-cases/
Patients of a GP who tested positive for coronavirus are being urgently traced.
Her surgery was closed this morning, almost two weeks after she returned from skiing holiday with the man at the centre of the Brighton cases.
I'm beginning to get a bit uncomfortable. 3 out of our 4 kids work in the NHS and I stay for some of most weeks in a hotel where there are always Chinese guests and Singapore Airline staff. This morning I used the stairs rather than the lift and gave a wide berth to a group of orientals at breakfast. Being over 60 could be a chink in my armour, I sincerely hope not.
Sounds like the cruise passengers are getting a couple of months of free cruise!
Can you catch it again if you've had it before?
I’m beginning to get a bit uncomfortable. 3 out of our 4 kids work in the NHS and I stay for some of most weeks in a hotel where there are always Chinese guests and Singapore Airline staff. This morning I used the stairs rather than the lift and gave a wide berth to a group of orientals at breakfast. Being over 60 could be a chink in my armour, I sincerely hope not.
erm, nah. Not going to do it.
Sounds like the cruise passengers are getting a couple of months of free cruise!
Can you catch it again if you’ve had it before?
A couple of months! not sure I could think of much worse, I'd rather be dead......oh...
erm, nah. Not going to do it.
😀
Sounds like the cruise passengers are getting a couple of months of free
cruisedock!
Can you catch it again if you’ve had it before?
I guess if it circulates for long enough it may mutate into a fresh strain, like flu does. Research suggests that an 'All You Can Eat' buffet is actually the perfect substrate to promote viral replication.
Well, I'm still groggy after first being a snotty lump two weeks ago. Thought I had got over it, until Saturday when I was properly bunged up again.
Maybe it is mutating!
(was at a trade fair with lots of Chinese exhibitors two weeks ago, my work colleague goes through Stockdorf (the area near Munich with the confirmed cases) everyday on the train and I know one guy who lays basketball with one of the people who had been quarantined)...
‘All You Can Eat’ buffet is actually the perfect substrate to promote viral replication.
I guess that goes for buffet breakfasts as well? Deary me, if the virus doesn't get me starvation might.
Just seen on the Guardian that a school in Southampton has been evacuated after pupils who'd visited an affected area came down with the symptoms. Fingers crossed that its just a flu/cold; but I feel for all the parents, you'd be bricking it for your kids!
It's loose everywhere, I really think its horse, door, stabled, bolted by now. Better stock up on lemsip and decongestants. With a 14 day incubation period how many carriers are going to to work, school, on the train, plane or bus?
Latest rumour mongering I see is that the Pangolin could be the carrier, if so its having the last laugh!
I'm going with the theory that its a man altered virus created by the CIA and released in China too wreck their economy but with usual SNAFU CIA planning they failed to see it would "escape" into the rest of the world.
I’m going with the slightly more boring theory that it's a transfer from another species with no deliberate human conspiracy.
Either way, it's loose. How far it goes remains to be seen. The only method of stopping transmission seems to be lockdown and quarantine and nobody here has the political balls to do what China has done (plus, that doesn't seem to have stopped it anyway) and we're "a bit" past patient #1 now.
Got to admit, this thing is probably in a viral sweet spot. Rather transmissive, not massive fatality rate, etc. Could keep on circulating for years...
The only method of stopping transmission seems to be lockdown and quarantine...
...and the first thing we did was repatriate people from the source country...
Just seen on the Guardian that a school in Southampton has been evacuated after pupils who’d visited an affected area came down with the symptoms.
I hope it's something else and everyone's okay.
Perhaps now is the time, as a precaution, to close all UK schools until at least after the Easter holidays.
Perhaps now is the time, as a precaution, to close all UK schools until at least after the Easter holidays.
It's an interesting conundrum, crash the economy to delay the inevitable, or expose the lack of capacity in the NHS to deal with it resulting in thousands of dead people? Either way I wouldn't want to be Boris Johnson right now.
I dunno, I reckon it's easy for him. Which option ****s everyone who isn't him and his mates hardest? That's the one to pick. Job Jobbed.
Edit, actually, it's whicever option makes him and his mates the most monies.
and the first thing we did was repatriate people from the source country…
Into lock down and quarantine.
Into lock down and quarantine.
Providing any number of potential points for transmission...
Basic infection control procedure would be to leave the people where they are; bad PR, good drills.
It's out, innit. Anyone read The Stand...?
From the Beeb:
'There are thousands of new cases being reported each day.
However, outbreak analysts believe these are only the tip of the iceberg.
Their mathematical models suggest the true scale of the outbreak could be 10 times larger than the official figures.
Multiple groups have estimated the number of cases is doubling every five to seven days.'
Multiple groups have estimated the number of cases is doubling every five to seven days.
This is surely good news though, in a way. It suggests that whilst it seems to spread like wildfire, only a small proportion of people get ill enough to come to the attention of the authorities, and still fewer actually die. So very spready, not very killy. Like colds and flu, really. And next year there’ll be a vaccine.
Perhaps now is the time, as a precaution, to close all UK schools until at least after the Easter holidays
I would just like to say I 100% agree with this!
Basic infection control procedure would be to leave the people where they are; bad PR, good drills.
This, I'm really sorry but it is a a poorly understood virus at present. You have to stay put. Remember, humans fail, all the time. Apparently the coach drivers for the repatriated were to go home and self quarantine for two weeks. So one coach driver gets to 12 days and thinks I'm fine, I'll go down the pub tonight for a few pints.........
The opening chapters of The Stand cover this quite well.
I don't believe for a minute the official Chinese figure of 5% mortality, figures of 20% are leaking out.
But its too late (as I stated earlier), its loose.
Perhaps now is the time, as a precaution, to close all UK schools until at least after the Easter holidays
They’ll not do that lightly either.
You’ll have parents off work for 2 months and frankly a lot of them will only end up in Soft Play centres etc.
Mortality rates will likely rise when healthcare becomes overwhelmed.
What's the demographic of those that don't recover, I'm assuming the elderly and those with underlying health issues?
Heard a cheery story this morning suggesting that PCR diagnostic kits in China are of multiple differing types and several are known to fail to identify the virus reliably. So in addition to it being a secretive, authoritarian/totalitarian state, even the figures it's probably lying about are wrong 🥵🤧👨🔬👨🚀
If we get something analogous to foot and mouth transmission rates then its into something fairly draconian to shut it down. We're a highly mobile country with limited slack in the system, poor hygiene and bags of belief in entitlement. Thats not a great start for containment.
Sat next to someone in a meeting today whose kid is in a class with the lad who was in the ski chalet.
😳
So very spready, not very killy. Like colds and flu, really.
Hmmm. I'm married to someone with seriously compromised immune system, for whom a vaccination doesn't work either. Worrying times for us.
Getting a bit close to home now. Dad is 85 and in heart failure, waiting for surgery. Wife teaches in a primary school in Brighton. Hmmm.
Into near simultaneous hmmm territory now. Shit just got real, hmmm?
Multiple groups have estimated the number of cases is doubling every five to seven days
So that's about 6 months to get from 40 000 to 8 Billion (gross oversimplification, assuming it continues at that rate).
I don’t believe for a minute the official Chinese figure of 5% mortality, figures of 20% are leaking out.
Utter nonsense and daily mailesque levels of scaremongering. Have a word with yourself. 😉
True infection rates are very hard to grasp and depend on self presenting patients, accurate tests, good admin and a truthful government. Mortality numbers are far easier to establish for obvious reasons. Hundreds of thousands of low acuity infections are reasonable to assume given the relatively low mortality of those unwell enough to require hospital admission. This means that the actual mortality rate will be even lower than currently being reported by eager for drama media.
There is lots to learn about this virus but so far it seems only a little more nasty than flu in severity, with it’s dangerousness coming mainly from how easily it appears to spread. I can’t help but think that given the numbers of people arriving in the UK having travelled in close proximity to 2-300 other in a recirculated air pressurised cylinder for several hours from affected parts of the globe, we should probably switch from efforts to contain, to efforts to increase bed capacity in the NHS by about 30-50%, because as it stands, UK hospitals Will. Not. Cope. with a mass influx of poorly people, an order of magnitude higher than normal winter pressures.
What’s the demographic of those that don’t recover, I’m assuming the elderly and those with underlying health issues?
Dr Li Wenliang was 34
Dr Li Wenliang was 34
Yeah, he was, y’know, helped along a bit... [\tinfoil hat]
Utter nonsense and daily mailesque levels of scaremongering. Have a word with yourself. 😉
Really , you’d believe the Chinese state , the state that’s conservatively locked up in concentration camps 10’s if not 100’s of thousands of Uighers for being religiously different. The state that hid a massive loss of life after a huge earthquake in the 1970’s. I suggest you are the one that needs a word with yourself.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
to efforts to increase bed capacity in the NHS by about 30-50%,
Which is not actually achievable, nor is the rather more important issue of ITU beds. When Swine flu was a threat, critical care units across the UK were tasked with doubling their capacity, again not realistically achievable at the time. The same plans are being made now, with little thought to how any of these beds are to be staffed. If your healthcare system is run like Lastminute.com, you do not have the capacity to cope with any global healthcare crisis...
@Ming the Merciless
read this, published today by the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Which give a rather more informed and more measured account of what's known about moortality. There's a short summary published today in the British Medical Journal
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m550
...which given how panicky people can get, I'll quote from:
These updates came as the Medical Research Council’s Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London published its latest report, which estimated the case fatality ratio for 2019-nCoV as between 1% and 18%.1 The ratio is defined as the proportion of cases of a disease that will ultimately result in death from the disease. Though this is a simple calculation at the end of an epidemic, as all deaths and cases will have been ascertained, during an epidemic the ratio underestimates the true number owing to the time lag between onset of symptoms and death. The researchers have accounted for this in their estimates.
They said that in cases detected in Hubei (the Chinese province where the outbreak began) the case fatality ratio was estimated at 18% ["aha!" I hear you say, but read on...(95% credible interval 11% to 81%). Among cases detected in travellers from mainland China to other countries they estimated the ratio as between 1.2% and 5.6%, with substantial uncertainty around these central values.
Among all cases, they have estimated that the case fatality ratio to be around 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5% to 4%).
The report noted that the differences in these estimates did not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries but rather the varying sensitivity of surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill patients.
Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious disease at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said, “The new number crunching from the MRC Infectious Diseases group at Imperial has given some insights into the current case fatality rate estimates and shows how much these can vary at the moment (from 18% to 1%), with the numbers in general coming down over time, as more accurate estimates are made through the increased use of diagnostics in less severe cases.
“This is reminiscent of the 2009-nH1N1 influenza strain, where initial estimates were also much higher than the now more established less than 0.1% rate overall. It is worth noting, though, that despite this apparently low fatality rate for 2009-nH1N1, this pandemic caused serious additional problems (compared with typical seasonal influenzas) to healthcare systems worldwide, showing why governments have placed such importance on this new coronavirus even as the case fatality rate drops.”
tl:dr - early estimates are always based on a small proportion of folk who have the disease so are way high. There's loads of uncertainty for sure, and we're hoping spring comes to the rescue as there won't be a vaccine in time to stop this. But less of the irresponsible "it's starting to leak out..." type nonsense. Cite sources or if you know nothing, say nothing.
(coi: I've a son in China atm as I said up thread.)
edited to give link to the pdf report
Top link does not work.
Taiwan news is one source AND I'll admit that they don't like the Chinese but they are a lot closer to the action than we are.
Weird. Maybe there is a conspiracy. Edited original post to give pdf link.
Direct link to page keeps giving 404 - here's the front page which links to the report (and has a relevant twitter feed)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis
Failed again though on second go its working so I'll have a read.
works now - wants you to go from front page, annoyingly. pdf link in my first post also works.
I suppose it's a difficult decision to make for any government.
And by the time they make it, the cat will be well and truly out of the bag.
It's a question of where you draw the line.. An example of a microcosm of this, my friend almost told me I couldn't visit as I work in Leeds so could be exposed.
I asked if he had pulled his kid out of school.., hundreds of not thousands of attack vectors there.
From what I gather, you can't really say. Not with any accuracy.
There's also the issue with presenteeism in the work place, people feel obliged to go to work unless you are literally on deaths door, in which case you've probably passed it on anyway.
We had a puerile email go around the other day about having hand sanitizer on your desk, yeh that's gonna help when people are coughing and sneezing.
currently watching Contagion (Netflix) as a movie it's ok and it's obviously had input from people "who know about this sort of thing."
Some interesting similarities to the current situation though im glad to say the virus being discussed here is a lot more benign than the one in the film...
We had a puerile email go around the other day about having hand sanitizer on your desk, yeh that’s gonna help when people are coughing and sneezing.
Do you cover your mouth/nose with your hands at all when coughing or sneezing?
If yes, then using alcohol gel after (or obviously just immediately washing your hands) is certainly going to help. Or using a tissue instead - not that that is always convenient.
If not, then, well you've probably got bigger issues...
Well Contagion wasn't particularly feel good.
Going to watch Joker to cheer myself up.
And yet others are stating that it could infect 60 percent of the worlds population, even a 1 percent mortality rate at that level would be a mind boggling amount of death and destruction.
You guys!
We spend months worrying that over population will destroy the planet, then we get all upset when Mother Nature tries to help us!
MoreCashThanDash
You guys!We spend months worrying that over population will destroy the planet, then we get all upset when Mother Nature tries to help us!
Yes, but but...
It might be me!
they have estimated that the case fatality ratio to be around 1%
That isn't factoring the China influence. When they are dragging people from their homes and throwing them in a cage on the back of a pickup, there will be, er, incidents.
Sometimes the treatment is worse than the disease.
We had a puerile email go around the other day about having hand sanitizer on your desk, yeh that’s gonna help when people are coughing and sneezing.
It will actually help a great deal. If the person sneezes 10 meters away from me (all over their hands) and then leaves the office touching surfaces and door handles as they go they I will more likely pick it up on my hands (holding same door handle) and not from their direct sneeze.
Hygiene in the UK is very low and comments like your just go to prove the ignorance.
Yes, but but…
It might be me!
NIMBY 😄