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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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Hear they have run out of ITU at Harlow. Something about Costa area being used as makeshift ITU.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 7:12 pm
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People don’t seem to realise or care how dangerous sending their child to a still busy school is, they still have way too many children in each day (around 90 out of the usual 300).

It's objectively not dangerous for the kids and unlikely to be for the parents considering their likely age range. Many will have little choice anyway as they will still need to work.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 7:16 pm
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Seem to have hit the peak in deaths now, give or take a couple of days or so. Whitty is talking about another week or two of course, but that's his job. And SAGE are weeks out of date with their R estimate as usual.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 7:38 pm
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Absolute morons, what do they think their relatives are suffering from if not covid?

There's a patient in one of our ICUs (northern England) who came up from Kent after a positive test to see their rellys over new year - "its only like flu innit?"


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 7:50 pm
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At some point though would it not be worth a switch im tactics?

When all the 60yo+ have had one shot, start from the other end.

Its becoming obvious tjat school aged kids are super spreaders. The snowflakes ' im really scared of covid19,here have a hug to make you less scared' crew

They infect mum or dad, who infect work colleagues by touching a door handle, who infected granny as she is in the bubble, so must, therefore be safe.

Stop the kids being super shedders once you have the high mortality group inoculized.

Ok so longer to complete but quicker to squadh the r number in half


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 7:52 pm
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Genuine question… which vaccines have been tested on school age kids? And does it matter? Anyway, I can’t see the plan moving away from the at risk first, public facing workers second, other adults third.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 7:56 pm
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Stop the kids being super shedders once you have the high mortality group inoculized.

Not sure it's been proved that the vaccine stops you spreading it?


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 8:56 pm
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Was out on the bike earlier doing the same route I did regularly during lockdown 1. Paths, parks and roads all busier than any time during then, even with it being near-zero outside with a chilly wind. The queue to get through the Mc Donald’s Drive Thru on Newport Road (Cardiff) was so long at 4pm that it blocked the junction completely. This lockdown is not working as lots of people are complacent now.

The one thing i genuinely struggle with is comments like this what are people supposed to do? In this example you can go for a bike ride (breathing on everyone you pass) but someone can't get in their car and get a McDs. I understand people seem to go from one extreme to the other with their emotions right now, but i still struggle with the judgment that gets passed on others at time.

Should happen anyway but especially now. A few high profile cases would have a great effect on most but sadly the proper scum who do it all the time (some of the druggies and alcoholics for example)

Also this, as the son of an alcoholic father these people are not "scum" they have health problems. Please pick your words with a little more thought.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:01 pm
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I have started running with a mask on (respro one otherwise I would expire)as it makes me a bit happier when catching up with dawdlers and those who insist on walking in the middle of the path


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:12 pm
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https://twitter.com/NWDevonPolice/status/1350030020668960768

First decent swell since lockdown. Also visiting surfers confirmed from Gloucestershire and elsewhere in Devon but an hours drive away.

Slightly taking the p*** no?


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:21 pm
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Genuine question… which vaccines have been tested on school age kids?

None of them are licensed under 16 as far as I’m aware.
That age group will get herd immunity and be fine, generally.
Pensioners won’t be fine so need vaccine


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:26 pm
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Not sure it’s been proved that the vaccine stops you spreading it?

Indeed. Vaccine rollout is to save lives, more than it is to reduce spread. Being vaccinated doesn’t mean you can stop social distancing.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:38 pm
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At some point though would it not be worth a switch im tactics?

When all the 60yo+ have had one shot, start from the other end.

You can **** right off with that.

Donald (59 3/4)


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:38 pm
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I don't believe there are any trials (unless the sinovac or sputnik ones are) in children.
As the vaccines haven't yet proved to reduce transmission, only reduce symptoms / severity there isn't the need for it yet. Plus they had to pick a target up front as the most impactful testing so went for the groups most potentially impacted.
Maybe the trials be done over time


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:41 pm
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You will be ok Donald, chances are you will be 60 by the time they get to your next age group


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 9:59 pm
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None of them are licensed under 16 as far as I’m aware.

Sinpharm have tested their vaccine in 3 and above. Ok one can debate regulatory process and pediatric vaccine development. But kids get coronavirus infections a lot including Chinese kids.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-sinopharm/chinas-sinopharm-covid-19-vaccine-safe-for-children-teenagers-state-media-idUSKBN29K0SE

Sinovac’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate and CanSino Biologics are also being tested on children and teenagers. Pfizer and Moderna have also included children as young as 12 years in their clinical trials. Note 12 and above is adolescent. Plenty of precedent for including those.

Pfizer/BioNtech and Moderna are approved for emergency use only in US. Pfizer is 16+ and Moderna is 18+.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:06 pm
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So the covid testing for flights plan seems to have been ditched?


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:08 pm
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Cheers Tired, didn't know that pfizer had tested younger


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:10 pm
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I'm going to be under 60 when they do the over 60s and over 60 when they do the under 60s.

I'm doomed.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:13 pm
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Thanks TiRed. We should be paying you a subscription.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:14 pm
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I can't help but hear that in a Scottish accent


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:14 pm
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Hey
Its just an idea, like the least worst scenario
Or not putting the wounded soldiers on the boats at Dunkirk
I had no idea herd immunity was age biased
Also, is there not a significant difference between being a super shedder and picking up a virol load via close contact and having it multiply 1000x internally till you exhale a few with every breath, or just passively be contracted and not replicating


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:16 pm
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I had no idea herd immunity was age biased

I don’t think they meant that, just that it’s less risky for kids than adults to get their (possible) immunity from exposure.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:20 pm
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I wonder if this means a new even scarier variant or a vaccine resistant one?

I thought there was something on Channel4 news about the situation in Brazil - one of the places that had 70% infection rate in the first wave is getting hit extremely badly again.

Then there's also Prof Sir Mark Walport (former government chief scientific advisor) saying there is potential for new variants to evade the vaccine. Although I don't think he was being specific about the current new variants.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:20 pm
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@ceepers funnily enough I saw that on your Instagram story and the next story was a gloating post about how good croyde was from someone I know from Plymouth. 🙄


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:23 pm
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Not totally up to date on the thread, just want to say that I hope the current posters on here that are infected are doing ok? My thought are with you guys.

As for the post about relatives having a go at NHS workers trying to save the lives of their family members...

Scum, utter scum.

Some people need to have a good look at themselves "after all this is over".


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:41 pm
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I thought there was something on Channel4 news about the situation in Brazil – one of the places that had 70% infection rate in the first wave is getting hit extremely badly again.

It's Manaus which is currently being overwhelmed and seeing its healthcare provision collapse


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:41 pm
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The one thing i genuinely struggle with is comments like this what are people supposed to do? In this example you can go for a bike ride (breathing on everyone you pass) but someone can’t get in their car and get a McDs. I understand people seem to go from one extreme to the other with their emotions right now, but i still struggle with the judgment that gets passed on others at time.

Where were they all the first time then? Staying indoors or finding space away from others. When I'm out on the bike I ride away from people, usually round the dead city centre or the crappy trails that others are avoiding to keep away from breathing on others. Plus a trip to McD's is not what I would call an essential journey. I only leave my flat to go shopping or out on the bike, nothing else. Why can't others follow the same rules as I stick to? If I can manage it without a garden and living alone then others can too.

Also this, as the son of an alcoholic father these people are not “scum” they have health problems. Please pick your words with a little more thought.

Hence why I said the following:

(some of the druggies and alcoholics for example)

I have friends who work or have worked in A&E, ITU etc and have countless stories of the same people showing up most nights beating up staff and causing havoc. In fact one of them was on our WhatsApp group saying exactly that 2 days ago after she had been hit by an aggressive druggie that has been in her dept for 8 of the last 12 days. She was back in work last night and had to deal with the same person who had bruised her leg on his last visit. She has also told me about patients with addictions that sit there quietly and apologise for being in there again so I hear both sides of the coin, plus two of my friends are ex-alcoholics and I hear their stories too. hence why I put the word "some" in there. Sorry if it offended you, that was not the intention but the point I was making of violence towards medical staff being unacceptable was what I was concentrating on.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:55 pm
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I fear it will keep on mutating, which it does because there are lots and lots of infections, and its passed about the groups who dont show or suffer from symptoms. But what I fear most is a mutation will eventually start to hit hard and kill those groups that previously, as above, were non symptomatic, like the young or children.

In 3rd world coutries with dense populations who maybe cant isolate completely due to economic conditions, the virus is producing new more infectious strains of itself. It seems only a matter of time before one of those new strains becomes deadly to all who catch it.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 10:57 pm
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I need to leave this forum for a while. The situation in Brazil in particular scares the s#*t out of me.

Look after yourselves.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 11:00 pm
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It seems only a matter of time before one of those new strains becomes deadly to all who catch it.

At which point it can't be transmitted to another"host" and will die out.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 11:21 pm
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It seems only a matter of time before one of those new strains becomes deadly to all who catch it.

I dont think it's that bleak.

It's how often we get a new resistant strain and how quickly that spreads vs how quickly the new vaccine can be produced. Is it going to be cycle of rapid closure of air travel accompanied by a circuit breaker for a few weeks then reset into tiers until vaccination starts. If it's annual vaccination are they just going to go for which variant is thought likely to become the dominant strain and backing that one?

ON a slight aside - has anyone done a cases graph showing how the waves associated with the different variations relate?


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 11:38 pm
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I only leave my flat to go shopping or out on the bike, nothing else. Why can’t others follow the same rules as I stick to? If I can manage it without a garden and living alone then others can too.

Why not just stay inside and ride on a turbo trainer, or get your shopping delivered? You'd not need to leave home at all then. Or would that feel bloody awful and be unreasonable? Others may be only leaving the house to get a McDonalds drive through. Restrict yourself in any way you want but don't expect others to follow your restrictions.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 11:39 pm
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SARs-CoV-2 is a sarbecovirus of similar genus to two other endemic coronaviruses that give us colds. This is the first time we as hosts have ever seen it, so some people have had a very hard time indeed.

But as immunity builds up the severity of infections will decline. These virus do change their spike protein slightly and that’s what we are seeing under selection pressure, but they have not evaded immunity. I think cross reactivity and continual reboosting either by vaccine or a helpful child, will be the norm in years to come.

Long-term this is not influenza. These viruses do not undergo the huge genetic reassortment that influenza does. We’ll crack this one with a vaccine and will modify the vaccine as needed. Treatments will be available for those unable to have a vaccine.

It just takes time. And the timescale is already stupid-fast. We are talking up to ten times faster than the normal drug development process. This is the example of building the plane while you fly it. A hell of a ride.


 
Posted : 15/01/2021 11:55 pm
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Spot on TiRed
I can see a future where we (and I'm over 50) have the 'flu vaccine yearly and every few years there's an updated CV-19 vaccine thrown in with it.
In fact I get my flu vaccine through work so anyone (at work >16 gets it) and it may be that CV-19 vaccination needs to drop below the 50s but the rate of change will be less than 'flu.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:15 am
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thanks TiRed. a bit tired and emotional at the mo but the insight you've offered has been invaluable in my struggle to cope with this situation.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:25 am
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Layman question.

Generally, if viruses (virii?) mutate to become more infectious (more efficient?) do they also generally mutate to become less deadly? This would seem (layman's view again - just a lowly art teacher so all this science stuff is probably beyond me) to be 'Darwinian' to me - infect more hosts but don't kill them so much so you can infect more hosts and propogate further...

If so, is this what we're seeing the start of with the current crop of variants?


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:43 am
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Reason's to be hopeful on vaccine rollout:
https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/135018199625809510 4"> https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1350181996258095104


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:46 am
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@stcolin
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I need to leave this forum for a while. The situation in Brazil in particular scares the s#*t out of me.

Look after yourselves.

I've @'ed you to read TiRed's post below as the ITV news on Brazil scared me a little too... but his take on the situation helped me anyway.👍

TiRed
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SARs-CoV-2 is a sarbecovirus of similar genus to two other endemic coronaviruses that give us colds. This is the first time we as hosts have ever seen it, so some people have had a very hard time indeed.

But as immunity builds up the severity of infections will decline. These virus do change their spike protein slightly and that’s what we are seeing under selection pressure, but they have not evaded immunity. I think cross reactivity and continual reboosting either by vaccine or a helpful child, will be the norm in years to come.

Long-term this is not influenza. These viruses do not undergo the huge genetic reassortment that influenza does. We’ll crack this one with a vaccine and will modify the vaccine as needed. Treatments will be available for those unable to have a vaccine.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:47 am
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This would seem (layman’s view again – just a lowly art teacher

Science is not just the preserve of scientists. It’s a privilege to explain it so that others understand. And yea, typically a virus will tend to become less pathogenic and may be more transmissible. How much? Well we don’t know.

Unusual fact, when myxomatosis was released to cull rabbits in Australia it mutated to become less pathogenic. But also the rabbits evolved to become more resistant. They kept a reference virus and rabbit strain in the lab to continually test the rabbits and virus from the wild. Hopefully humans won’t be following the rabbits. They won’t.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2019-02-14-new-research-explains-how-rabbits-adapted-survive-myxomatosis


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:57 am
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T.w.a.t alert
https://twitter.com/eddychemical/status/1350188496187777024?s=21


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 2:34 am
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At least people know to keep away from him.... for viral and other reasons.😐

I think we will look back and see that the virus brought out the best in many, the worst in others.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 2:54 am
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^^ That he has.

Can you imagine having to treat him in hospital as a nurse or doctor if he came down with the virus?

Of course they would as they are better people than me and certainly him.

Using an analogy he would love, he wouldn't be "fighting them on the beaches" but instead be standing there with bunting, doing a meet and greet and pointing them to the nearest airfield.

Plastic patriot.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 3:42 am
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At which point it can’t be transmitted to another”host” and will die out.

Great yeah, as the virus doesnt know how many hosts there are, but not so good for the human race eh ?.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:12 am
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Anyone else feel like we're slowly sliding into some distopian nightmare?


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 8:18 am
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Talk to me about both false negative results and in-household transmission.

We've one son with a positive result this week. He had two 'quick tests' in first week of December, both negative.

There's 5 of us in a small house with one bathroom for the last month.

He, mrs_oab and I have had headaches, general aches and overall feeling unwell.

Mrs_oab and I are negative. All his workmates are negative.

Is it possible to get false negatives on the quick tests or the full tests?
We're on the assumption that this may be the case and he had cv19 before December tests, because surely one other of they family or workmates would have caught it?


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 8:39 am
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I only leave my flat to go shopping or out on the bike, nothing else. Why can’t others follow the same rules as I stick to? If I can manage it without a garden and living alone then others can too.

I think the key thing is they are your rules imposed upon yourself. If someone else's actions fall short of your expectation as long as they are acting within the law / guidance so what. On the flip side someone may think your bike ride is excessive after all you could just do a home workout on youtube.

People going out to McDs and such used to stress me out but after almost a year of this I just can't live with that level of anxiety I just do what ever I can to keep myself and partner safe.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 9:12 am
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because surely one other of they family or workmates would have caught it?

Not necessarily. The secondary attack rate in a household for one extra case is about 33% from PHR and ONS survey data. Probability that someone does not get it is 67%. Prob that the other four do not get it is 0.67*0.67*0.67*0.67 so prob that AT LEAST one person DOES get it is 1 - 0.67^4 = 0.8. So there’s actually a 20% chance that in a household of five nobody else is a case. Not so bad odds.

Plenty of other buggy reasons for headache and other symptoms. But the sensitivity and specificity of the test is also a reason. Loss of taste and especially smell has a high prognostic value. Other symptoms less so.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 9:27 am
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Anyone else feel like we’re slowly sliding into some distopian nightmare?

Sometimes. Then I get out for some fresh air and exercise and read TiReds posts, and it resets my anxiety level to its normal overactive state.

When I analyse my reaction it's more about anger and frustration at inept government response making things worse than they needed to be, than the actual threat of the virus itself.

Though there have been many days these last 10 months when I've got really close to phoning the doctor to see if they'll represcribe the Citalopram I needed before.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 9:27 am
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Cheers TiRed - we've clearly a seasonal bug, just interesting that son has managed to have cv19 in the last month without knowing and without passing on.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 9:43 am
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We were really worried about our sister in law , high temperature and her Apple Watch would keep warning her about her heart rate even if she was sitting down. This went on for about a week.
Then yesterday we get a video call from her standing on the beach ( her official quarantine ended days ago) right as rain. It was as if she had never been ill.
Finally some good news. (Fingers crossed)


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 10:04 am
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The secondary attack rate in a household for one extra case is about 33% from PHR and ONS survey data. Probability that someone does not get it is 67%. Prob that the other four do not get it is 0.67*0.67*0.67*0.67 so prob that AT LEAST one person DOES get it is 1 – 0.67^4 = 0.8. So there’s actually a 20% chance that in a household of five nobody else is a case. Not so bad odds

If there’s only a 33% chance of catching it from a family member who definitely has it, with no precautions, does this not mean you’re gonna have to try really bloody hard to catch it masked up in a supermarket or distanced outside from people who mostly haven’t got it?

How on earth do you get from that to an R of 1.5?!


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 10:24 am
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Is it possible to get false negatives on the quick tests or the full tests?

Yes. Talking to colleagues at work there's a recurring theme of testing negative when mild symptoms start (usually the cough or the fever) and then scoring a positive test result a few days later.

Might also depend on how enthusiastically you polished your tonsils and tickled your brain with the swab.

Many countries are not happy about the quality* of pre-departure PCR testing and for some destinations I have to take a PCR test before departure and then a further one on arrival.

* one assumes that this is because negative test certificates are widely available on the black market.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 10:37 am
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Some, i will let someone else with a gcse in math run the number, have given it to the infected person in the household. The giver being asymptomatic and a distributer. Hence they dont catch as they have had it and are now immune.
Maybe


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 10:39 am
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Try really hard; maybe the wrong phrasing but absolutely it's the message I've given to my family who have at times got a bit panicked as if seeing someone with it causes you to instantly explode.

Your chance of running into someone infected is low (at 1/30 infected as per London estimates, 29/30 aren't = 97%, then take into account that of those infected the majority of those will be isolating anyway) so massively in your favour that the person who walked past you on your walk earlier isn't infected.

And if you do run into someone then the chances of catching it are low if you keep your distance, wash your hands, and so on.

Does it mean we shouldn't take those precautions - no, partly because those numbers are what they are BECAUSE the population is taking precautions (mainly!) and partly because even on those odds, multiply by 60million hosts and the numbers are still eye-wateringly high hence the need to protect the NHS.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 10:46 am
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When I analyse my reaction it’s more about anger and frustration at inept government response making things worse than they needed to be, than the actual threat of the virus itself.

Though there have been many days these last 10 months when I’ve got really close to phoning the doctor to see if they’ll represcribe the Citalopram I needed before.

That's two of us. It's the sheer venal incompetence that is grinding me down.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 10:50 am
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People going out to McDs and such used to stress me out but after almost a year of this I just can’t live with that level of anxiety I just do what ever I can to keep myself and partner safe.

It's all for nothing though if others don't do their part.

Unfortunately that requires competent leadership and a clear statement of what we can and can not do. There's currently no room for airy-fairy guidance and we may have to restrict some freedoms short-term to achieve the long-term freedom that we all crave. (Requires competent leadership with a backbone).


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 11:18 am
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Anyone else feel like we’re slowly sliding into some distopian nightmare?

That's STW for you since time immemorial. It's long been the case that being 'over-biked', drinking the 'wrong coffee', not owning a teutonic turbo-diesel estate with winter tyres on opposing corners and racing slicks on the others are pretty much capital offences. Yet every day I see people blatantly ignoring this guidance and it really grinds my nuts.

And with that I'll leave you to return to Dystopia. Don't forget to get tested first mind and make sure you take an Aeropress, freshly roasted artisan beans and a proper manual burr grinder in your hand-luggage just in case 🙂


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 11:22 am
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It’s all for nothing though if others don’t do their part.

im just simply offering up the perspective if people are (which in the MCds example is) operating within the guidance and law then they are doing their part. However they may not be doing their part to the level that some believe they should - which is likely the case of people who say they only go to the supermarket and a short exercise a day. I do agree that the lack of clarity around whats local and essential likely causes a lot of anxiety and stress for people, but like you say that requires the tories making themselves accountable rather than vague rule then blame people they dont follow them. Anyway, i risk derailing thread this so wont say anymore.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:30 pm
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that requires the tories making themselves accountable rather than vague rule then blame people they dont follow them

This. Well put Joe.

If McDs are told by the government that they can open (in the middle of a “lockdown” with the NHS stretched to breaking point) then self righteous idiots like me imploring people not to go is hot useless expended air. As is also the case for every minister telling people to “stay at home” and “act as if you have the virus” while supporting keeping non-essential places away from the home open for people to head to. They are trying to have their cake and to eat it.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:33 pm
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So first post from me on this thread and it's to moan about my wife.
All through this pandemic she has criticized rule breakers for being blatantly selfish / stupid. Well level 4 now bans unnecessary journeys as part of necessary journeys, she doesn't believe that applies to her urgent need to deliver a baby present!
Spent all morning in a heated debate about it, but she went anyway.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 12:49 pm
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Anyone else feel like we’re slowly sliding into some distopian nightmare?

I imagine the good people of Eyam felt the same about the plague. But they got through by collectively doing the right thing.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 1:14 pm
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How on earth do you get from that to an R of 1.5?!

Sheer numbers of contacts times duration you can pass it on. If 2% have it, then your chance of meeting someone randomly without it is 0.98. But suppose you meet 100 people randomly in a day. Easy on a packed commuter train with 200 people in a coach.

Then your chance of never meeting it is 0.98^100. So your chance of meeting AT LEAST one infected person in those 100 contacts is 1 - 0.98^100, which is 87%! Per day. It’s the combinatorics that gonna gecha!

But they got through

Technically only half of them.

I follow rule 1 and read, try and learn and obey the rules. That trip to give baby presents? Well it could be argued it’s unnecessary. But a stressed new mother at home needing help? That’s a visit for care. That’s allowed. Rule 1 is the filter used to parse whether I’m taking the p!ss.

I missed my eldest nephew’s 18th birthday this week. His mother (my “Irish twin”) died five years ago next week. Of course I wanted be there for him. Desperately. Sent him a bottle of something alcoholic and had a FaceTime.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 1:48 pm
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Spent all morning in a heated debate about it, but she went anyway.

@amatuer - we're currently isolating, having been really good about not meeting folk since Scottish lockdown in November, we had a small house fire before new year, the oven died this week so I couldn't cook my wife a birthday cake properly and more going on.

It was a proper act of both friendship and charity for a friend to knock on the door last night unannounced and leave a birthday cake, card and a couple of treats for us all. She stood 10m away at the end of our drive and chatted for a few minutes.

There is (certainly in our Scottish guidance) provision for travel to assist with care and charity.

YWMMV


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 2:29 pm
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Technically only half of them.

Beaten to it by TiRed, as ever, although his mathematical answer to the R number question is probably better than mine, which would have been schools, workplaces ignoring guidance and idiots ignoring guidance, in that order.

Just want to say that I've disagreed with joepud on a lot of his posts around the lockdown, but I think he's pretty spot on with his last couple up there.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 2:54 pm
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I know TiRed was only giving a few examples for fun but from what I've read it is probably better to think of the household transmission as being 1/3rd chance that the infected person sprays the virus around liberally (and infects all or nearly all household members) and 2/3 chance that they don't produce much. I doubt that the number of infectees follows a binomial distribution. This would mean the situation where no-one else caught it would be more common than it would be if each person was infected (or not) independently with a 1/3rd chance.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:03 pm
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Ok tiRed, am I going to Portugal at the end of May?


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:12 pm
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A question that would have made zero sense 12 months ago but now is understood by everyone reading it.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:26 pm
 loum
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If McDs are told by the government that they can open (in the middle of a “lockdown” with the NHS stretched to breaking point) then self righteous idiots like me imploring people not to go is hot useless expended air. As is also the case for every minister telling people to “stay at home” and “act as if you have the virus” while supporting keeping non-essential places away from the home open for people to head to. They are trying to have their cake and to eat it.

It's not wasted effort raising awareness of the government failing the people.
They're putting the profits of a multinational ahead of the value of life of its workers and their families.
This one's upset me cos it's hit a friend who works there.
She's not furloughed any more and has to go in as a key worker, and so her kid has to go into school at the same time, all so self entitled idiots can make their daily essential journeys to McDonald's.
Ridiculous.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:29 pm
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I think the key thing is they are your rules imposed upon yourself.

Here in Wales they are the ones breaking the rules. We're allowed out for 4 purposes: work (if you can't work from home), exercise, essential shopping and carer duties. You can go out as often and for as long as you wish but they do ask you to limit trips as much as possible. There is no way that you can class going for a crappy fast food meal as essential.

Plus this:

It’s all for nothing though if others don’t do their part.

For the last few weeks I've been caring for my parents so that they can limit their risks of catching it or anything else as they are both in the vulnerable groups. I'm currently not doing so due to my dad having a cataract operation on the 21st so he's meant to be isolating. He's not though, going up to the local shops most mornings to get milk and bread while walking the dog. I've tried to get him to see sense as he's upsetting my mum by doing so, even resorting to asking the shop owners to politely remind him he shouldn't be going out (they're long time family friends) but all I've had back is that I'm being unreasonable in trying to make him obey the rules, this is despite two shops nearby having had to close due to outbreaks in them. Apparently there is no risk as it's a rural area and no-one has died there of it yet. Demonstrably untrue as the death count in the town is 4 that I know of. The attitude of the majority of the town now is that the vaccines have arrived so it's over now and the battle is won, they're letting their guard down at a critical time. I see the same here at home with groups going shopping or the McDonald's or the park, multiple households sharing cars and people having visitors in the evening indoors. I'm trying very hard to just ignore all of this and just focus on doing my bit but it's getting to the point where it feels pointless.

This thread and particularly reading TiREd's posts and stories like the one above from matt_outandabout have really helped keep me sane(ish) during all of this and maybe it is a bit of the January Blues making it seem worse but it does feel like we're failing at the last hurdle. Yes you can pin the blame on the poor leadership from Westminster but you can also pin it where Westmenster will: on people not following the rules and doing the correct thing. This is not over at all and we need to keep the end goal in mind all of the time.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:42 pm
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we may have to restrict some freedoms short-term to achieve the long-term freedom that we all crave

Define short term. A year for example, is that short term?
My view is that there is a perspective to be had on this. I’m 40, my 41st year won’t be much different to be 42nd. But, to my 75 year old parents every year matters, the same for those in their teens and probably early 20’s. Losing a year for some groups is huge and the longer this goes on, the more they will question why they’re doing it.

Unrelated, I really don’t get the anger at going to the drive thru. Seriously, push that anger to the government, push it to morons like Laurence Fox up there, a drive thru is not a big deal.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:49 pm
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rather sad reminder, not that we need one, that it not just the "old" that die of COVID came across from a Martin Rowson tweet

https://twitter.com/MartinRowson/status/1350043101772083201


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:58 pm
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@reluctantjumper - I'm definitely feeling January blues.

Compared to so many, I am so fortunate however. Cv19 has impacted us, but in no way as severely as it could, and has done, for so many others.

Stick in there. Before we know it we'll be posting sunny bike pics...


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 4:59 pm
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I’m trying very hard to just ignore all of this and just focus on doing my bit but it’s getting to the point where it feels pointless.

The majority are trying really hard which is why it isn't pointless at all.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:17 pm
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Not for those feeling anxious. Worrying that they feel it might be needed, but do they need protection from civil claims as well?

BBC News - Covid-19: Protect us from unlawful killing charges - medics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55689388


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:34 pm
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I really don’t get the anger at going to the drive thru.

Do you think there would be the same anger if it was a drive-thru gourmet coffee bar?


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:38 pm
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I also think there is an issue about their not being a quantifiable goal for the restrictions. I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.

Would help with the sort of endless, grinding futility of it - give people something to focus on. I think many people aren't really engaging any more due to the sort of endless feeling of it.

We've all basically sacrificed a yea of our lives for this, one we won't get back - I can see why people are thinking YOLO and just doing it.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:42 pm
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I also think there is an issue about their not being a quantifiable goal for the restrictions. I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.

Would help with the sort of endless, grinding futility of it – give people something to focus on. I think many people aren’t really engaging any more due to the sort of endless feeling of it.

We’ve all basically sacrificed a yea of our lives for this, one we won’t get back – I can see why people are thinking YOLO and just doing it.

I could not agree more with this and have been saying it since March. I know we can’t have set timescales so give us a goal with a rough time around it. Something like “we need that R at ..., if all goes to plan this will take 6 weeks, but we will stay in this state until it gets to that number and stays there for a fortnight”. Or “we need to vaccinate x million people, at x thousand per day that should take 8 weeks, when that happens this will happen to the restrictions”..

People will still be annoyed but at least they’ll have an end goal.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:53 pm
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Do you think there would be the same anger if it was a drive-thru gourmet coffee bar?

You make an interesting point. Snobbish behaviour on STW? Can’t see that myself...


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:54 pm
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Define short term. A year for example, is that short term?

There's 3 islands (one a continent) in the Southern Hemisphere that have the answer to that. (Clue it's not a year with proper leadership that is not afraid to lockdown hard for as long as it took).

You make an interesting point. Snobbish behaviour on STW? Can’t see that myself…

As mentioned up there somewhere we have a family acquaintance that is working in a coffee take-away and not that's not good either.


 
Posted : 16/01/2021 5:59 pm
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