Who has ACTUALLY had a second wave so far? Iran?
Last time I looked Iran has a second wave of *cases* but not deaths. So *maybe* their second wave is just better testing and they aren't seeing a real second wave.
What the apparent lack of second waves means, who knows. Lot's of different possibilities.
That Whately yin is thicker than a whale omelette.
It's what you get when your main selection criterion is belief in a stupid 'project'.
You end up with stupid and/or unhinged people rising higher than they would in normal circumstances.
Ignoring the obvious problem for the Tories in that list
Would opposition be a problem for the Torys? They will have been in power for 15 years. The economy will have been tanked with lots of bitterly unpopular decisions to be made.
Sunak can take over in 2025 and a revitalized party can win against an unpopular Labour Govt in 2030 or earlier. (It could even force Labour into an unpopular coalition with the SNP or the kind of nightmare minority government the Torys endured last time.)
Suffering from CV plus the nightmare of the crisis has knocked Boris for 6, he's a wreck.
I reckon any Tory back benchers with reasonable majorities would be happy to lose the 2025 election. (If it wasn't for the threat of Corbyn they'd have been happy to lose in 2019.)
(Not sure what this has to do with CV.)
TiRed does you model differentiate between genuine Covid deaths and lockdown related deaths which are not directly linked to Covid. e.g. delay in seeking hospital treatment for cardiac events, delay to cancer diagnosis or withdrawal of cancer treatment etc? Some of these will obviously be long term - e.g. someone who didn't seek cancer diagnosis in early April may not die until 2021. It seems unlikely that your graph can return to the baseline so quickly given these effects - unless they are statistically trivial? This is actually the key question for government - when does the lockdown do more harm than good. Actually you need to look 10 years out to see the health implications of economic harm and educational harm - but you might expect to see some long tail on the total deaths this year even if direct covid associated deaths gets to zero.
Given how few data points you have, and the number of degrees of freedom your model must have its not exactly a great fit (you can probably visually see an asymmetry to the data) - I think you would be able to see how a tail on that could still see you having low numbers of deaths into weeks 32-26, without any impact from lockdown. I'm guessing your model assumes people die within a defined period, whereas there will be stragglers who linger on before finally Covid, or complications of intubation/ventilation catch up with them. If you model is pre-relaxation then the deviation from that model should be measurable which would be interesting?
Ignoring the obvious problem for the Tories in that list
I read that as being to do with the colour of Rishi Sunak's skin....
TiRed does you model differentiate between genuine Covid deaths and lockdown related deaths which are not directly linked to Covid
There’s a line on his graph for reported Covid deaths, and a line for all excess deaths. Unpicking those in the way you are asking may never be possible.
when does the lockdown do more harm than good.
without lockdown the nhs would still have to deal with far more many critical (lockdown reduced cases by 85%) cases so with or without lockdown there would still be an effect on the "unrelated" deaths
Actually the ONS have tried by looking at causes. There is no increase in cardiovascular deaths, with the majority ascribed to dementia (basically being old) in the absence of testing.
Now the model actually describes each of the health regions very well. I don’t model Wales deaths, but predict Wales excess from the population mean. Then the aggregation of multiple predictions (With bootstrap uncertainty) and central limit theorem pulls in the prediction interval. It’s good enough to tell me the immediate first wave excess deaths and is actually very sensitive to changes in COVID19 deaths (it’s not additive).
I don’t propagate any prediction uncertainty from the weekly expected deaths. If I did that as well, then the peak would be well-described as the range is about plus minus a thousand. The bands signify statistical significant differences rather than uncertainty year on year.
Those individual regions - I could model a change in behaviors with a switch between logistic and generalized logistic, and think that this is evidence of the effects of lockdown on the asymmetry. The effect is not huge though.
I remember being horrified at nearly 300 folk dying in one day in Italy.
We're opening Primark.
@tired what is the week 20 spike (/week 19 low) in non-covid deaths? Appears on both the ational and regional graphs.
As sharma witters on aimlessly about unlocking the economy, what plans do you have to release your pent-up demand for retail therapy from next Monday?
No scientists or experts present today; a sign they're being sidelined?
There must be someone in johnson's clown circus with some credibility to front the next presser.....
I was supposed to wait till Monday?
Ive somewhat hit the online sellers the last week or so.
what is the week 20 spike
Bank holiday weekend lowering previous week and raising the next I think
There must be someone in johnson’s clown circus with some credibility to front the next presser…..
Actually, I don't think there is.
Tossers.
We wants the Priti 🙂
No scientists or experts present today; a sign they’re being sidelined
The two senior advisors, Whitty and the other one who's name escapes me, were last on with Boris last week. Van Tamm and Harries haven't reappeared since they both gave implied criticism of Cummings
Bank holiday weekend lowering previous week and raising the next I think
Correct - VE day weekend.
I read that as being to do with the colour of Rishi Sunak’s skin….
I read it far more like Sunak has a soul and seems to be at least half decent unlike say randomly Patel though I think the major problem is Starmer batting for the other side.
Correct
See, I'm learning!!!
Piers Morgan - yes, I know but....
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1270417493790732289?s=20
Dunning-Kruger field test
Some of the replies to Morgan's tweet are quite tragic. They bang on about how the government has setup and paid out through the furlough scheme.
Furlough according to this link has so far cost £100bn
Wow - that is a lot of money you would think (and it is). It is actually vital money that has had a huge impact on people's lives in this country.
Hold that thought and take a look at the cost of this which (in the opinion of a lot of independent analysts) will cost the country far more than it has already for many, many years:
https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T
So - how good is Cummings' government really doing overall???
You make your own mind up.
You know how when railway franchise operators like First Group and National Express can't see out the duration of the contract they just hand the keys back? Can the government do the same thing please.
eskay - can't read the business insider link as I use an ad-blocker; I'm guessing the point is that brexit costs - financial, economic and opportunity - massively exceed CV19 support.
Yep, that's about the size of it and we still have the hard of thinking who believe the end of the brexit transition period will lead them to the land of milk and honey; elysium; ambrosia.
I'm a dedicated remainer; brexit is economically and culturally destructive; an incompetent gov which cannot see that the UK is nothing more than an irritant to the EU and an opportunity for the US
CV19 would challenge the most competent of governments but we don't have a gov in the UK with even a smidge of competence; a clown circus led by an incompetent with a cabinet of sycophants.They are directly responsible for tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
Otherwise, we're in a great place - Ha!
Brexit costs to the country will soon be greater than all the money EVER paid to the EU by U.K. according to the article
Thanks dan; have read that before; no great surprise.
Talk about spaffing....
We know that on top of the public health issues around COVID-19, there will be an economic hit due to the measures enacted - lockdown/social distancing etc. A few articles I read looked at GDP going down by 10-12% GDP this year and unlikely to bounce back quickly. That in itself can be viewed as a public health issue - it negatively affects people's health and lifespans.
With a no-deal brexit looking likely, the (pre-COVID-19) government analysis suggested a no deal brexit could be a 10% hit to GDP.
Seems both of those hits will come around the same time - the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021.
That's a bit gloomy to say the least!
Brexit costs to the country will soon be greater than all the money EVER paid to the EU by U.K. according to the article
Ah but It was all about ‘taking back control of our borders‘.
Which strangely at the first sign of a global pandemic When other countries did we didn’t bother and even those countries held in thrall to the evil EU shut borders.
We even had a terribly greater advantage in er being an island.
(Sneaky edit as too much negativity in one post)
Now going to finally be allowed to open from Monday, for outdoor buildings only and take-away cafe. Let's hope this hasn't come too late for Chester and others, who have been really struggling financially during the pandemic.
eskay – can’t read the business insider link as I use an ad-blocker; I’m guessing the point is that brexit costs – financial, economic and opportunity – massively exceed CV19 support.
Yet all the praise of Sunak and his Furlough scheme he’s never been shy of making it know that TAXPAYERS will be footing the bill and TAXPAYERS are helping those out on Furlough and the TAXPAYERS will be footing the bill thereafter.
In other words and with reference to the economic chasm between the cost of Brexit to the cost of COVID19, the Furlough scheme balancing act is just a smoke screen for TAXPAYERS to pay for Brexit. Cummings strategy 101 - distraction.
This government has tipped the UK over the edge. Do we really have to wait another 4 years to get them out?
Small sample size, but not negligible. Looking good for normal life with some adaptions.
Two Missouri hairstylists with #COVID19 cut hair for 140 people. 45 of these decided to get tested. Results just came back: all negative. That's 30-60 mins of being within a foot of each other. Stylists and clients all wore #masks.
https://www.kbia.org/post/many-clients-great-clips-stylists-covid-19-test-negative-illness#stream/0
That Whately yin is thicker than a whale omelette.
And why is she doing a TV interview while sitting on the toilet?
The tories have never managed the economy well so they have a history of increasing profits by pay cuts, privatisation, government investment in their mates' private companies (eg Nudge Unit, Faculty, SERCO seems to do very well, Dido), zero hours contracts, cut pensions, tax cuts, ignoring tax evasion and encouraging avoidance, anti-union legislation. This is what Thatcher called 'rewarding the wealth creators'. You now have a significant number of them are neo-liberals who believe, like Gove, in creative destruction, whereby many rights are lost and workers' conditions will be diametrically opposed to those of an MP let alone a boss, whatever they get you won't. Wage cuts make people angry, and hungry, so you need to provide industrial food at minimal cost so we have the Agriculture Act and Rishi favouring American food standards and trade deals. Someone will be arguing that the NHS underperformed during CV, it has to go.
If the economy tanks and people protest, Priti will call in the tanks. Now, where are those water cannons? After the oil and banking crises, why would anyone think that employees won't be made to pay for all this? Blimey, the landlords and the credit companies want their money back with interest and they've got full backing from Starmer, who gets full backing from Mandelson. The only employees who get a rise will be the police, like under Thatcher, because it will be their job to be world beaters. When all this happens, blue Labour hasn't provided an alternative narrative but rather demands to do the same a bit better with 'get a grip', 'don't break the law', 'pay your rent'. As Thatcher said, 'There is no alternative' (certainly the case with the current Labour front bench).
A landlord was telling me last night how he's given tenants a month rent free (they have no income) but if they don't sort themselves out by Christmas, eviction awaits. This will be replicated all over the place. Tax payers funding exorbitant rents to private landlords for people who've been made homeless by other landlords, might even be the same people. People are persuaded or threatened not to fight their corner, Corbyn is a commie, wait five years until we get some limp neo-tory in a shiny suit and a boys' haircut calling out for 'professionalism and electability' and working hard for his sponsors.
This isn't going to go well.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734
That's a really interesting look at how it spread. It'd be good to see more of this as the science progresses and more information is known.
That’s a really interesting look at how it spread. It’d be good to see more of this as the science progresses and more information is known.
many paths of transmission onto our island (by healthy or mildly ill holiday makers) is bad news for New Zealand, and on a smaller scale, remote communities with little current infection, is it not?
Bojo just now:
Bubbles for people who live alone
Shops and zoos from next week
Not much else of note.
Still not allowed to travel to grandparents in the countryside to stay with them, just in case we need childcare?
So the message is still that they have it under control but the R is close to 1 so be sensible.
So why are they opening all the shops then? If R is so close to the tipping point how is letting everyone go to the local shopping centre going to help? If the R is close to 1 then any small jumps are going to make a big difference. Glad I'm in Wales where we're being a bit more cautious, officially.
Not much else of note.
You mean he didn't say anything about Neil Ferguson's point that locking down a week earlier would have reduced the death toll by at least a half? 20,000 people dying due to his laziness and indecisiveness is going to be quite a legacy.
Glad I’m in Wales where we’re being a bit more cautious, officially.
You’ll all be back in the workplace and schools in Wales before us… but that’s what happens when you have a government that thinks getting something done means just promising a date and no more measures required...
Tory MP on Radio4 moaning about teachers and unions again… no dummy, get the virus probably under control and then schools can open safely… teachers and unions can’t do that... YOUR GOVERNMENT CAN.
Technically Boris is single (unless he got married recently) - this "bubble" malarkey is just a way for him to continue philandering. He doesn't want to fall foul of the rules like DomCumm did. He's creating rules to facilitate his "activities".
You mean he didn’t say anything about Neil Ferguson’s point that locking down a week earlier would have reduced the death toll by at least a half?
The journalists asked him about it. He basically said it was down to the scientists. That’s not going to make the scientists keep quiet… far from it.
You mean he didn’t say anything about Neil Ferguson’s point that locking down a week earlier would have reduced the death toll by at least a half? 20,000 people dying due to his laziness and indecisiveness is going to be quite a legacy.
Ferguson was actually pretty generous, he said the infection was doubling every 3-4 days prior to lockdown so locking down a week earlier would have at least halved the deaths, but 2x doubling times in a week would be more like a 4x reduction in death.
Ferguson had to downplay it a bit: he was estimating a doubling time of over 5 days at the time which is probably a significant part of why we were so slow to act.
So the message is still that they have it under control but the R is close to 1 so be sensible.
The message was that R is between 0.7 & 0.9 average across the UK using an average of 13 models.