An assertion that R0 is .7-.9 in England seems optimistic given the chart above. Seems much more likely to be hovering at or above 1 pretty much everywhere.
It's at this point that we get into the political ramifications of asking folk to get back into lockdown almost immediately after leaving it, even if it's the right thing to do at that moment.
there are 90 vaccines in development worldwide and at least 8 of them have worked perfectly in primates
I've watched your vid and eight of the variants worked in one study which is trying different variants using the same technique (one monkey per vaccine if I've understood correctly and 8 monkey were protected) but the total number of monkeys vaccinated with the variants was only 25 so he reproducability is unknown and the length of protection is an unknown - hard to talk about worked perfectly when there were so few monkeys successfully protected and we have no idea how long that induced protection lasts - especially given the type of vaccine used.
Thanks for linking the vid, we can all make up our own minds, I was left with the impression that the guy hadn't fully understood the practicalities of how the second study he covered worked himself and he left me with as many questions as answers. A few references as to where he'd got his information from would have helped, showing them would have been even better.
It's a bit like nuclear fussion, the more vaccine trials I read the further we seem from a working commercial power producing reactor.
Over 3 months the average deaths in the UK are around 500 per day, thats the same run rate as British military deaths in WW1, the current run rate is around 250 deaths per day the same run rate as the British military Deaths in WW2.
However no ones printing casualty lists....
But you have to live in a shed* in your parents garden when you escape.
[* may not actually be a shed]
I do remember when the UK epidemic kicked in, in London mostly, that it wouldn't be fair to impose a London-only lockdown.
We're all in this together, team.
Short answer is yes it would still be useful and they’d still release it of there was nothing else *but* there are 90 vaccines in development worldwide and at least 8 of them have worked perfectly in primates so you’d have to assume the Oxford one won’t progress if there are loads of brilliant alternative vaccines around. (Or maybe none of them will work in humans!)
I’ve watched your vid and eight of the variants worked in one study which is trying different variants using the same technique (one monkey per vaccine if I’ve understood correctly and 8 monkey were protected) but the total number of monkeys vaccinated with the variants was only 25 so he reproducability is unknown and the length of protection is an unknown – hard to talk about worked perfectly when there were so few monkeys successfully protected and we have no idea how long that induced protection lasts – especially given the type of vaccine used.
No, I think you've got the wrong end of the stick about the detail, but it's irrelevant to my point. I'm saying the Oxford Vaccine seems flawed from the start but could still be useful. HOWEVER, there are many other trials and several have already appeared more promising than the Oxford one so potentially the Oxford one will be redundant. (Or maybe none of them will work in humans!)
What I am emphatically NOT saying is that it's a dead cert that one of these 90 vaccines will work. Quite the opposite, if one of the vaccines work I *still* have a feeling that even the best case time scale for vaccines may still be too late.
I was left with the impression that the guy hadn’t fully understood the practicalities of how the second study he covered worked himself and he left me with as many questions as answers.
No probs, just follow the provided links and read them for yourself, I only link to his vids 'cos it's a useful source of links an I can't be bothered to read them/quote them myself. (Personally I think his vids are brilliant FWIW.)
But you have to live in a shed* in your parents garden when you escape.
Dancing to Abba at a family party is also required. Reportedly.
the Roche antibody tests are beining rolled out to NHS staff & 4 colleagues have all had it done & come back negative
Not sure if thats good or bad, 2 of them were certain theyd had it and all reckon theyd been exposed without PPE
understand the roche one has a higher than advertised false negative rate tho
and inevitiable R would rise (anecdotally theyve all said new cases appearing again in last few days)
Madame had the Roche test and it was negative. She's left wondering what she had if it wasn't Covid. Roche claim 0% false negatives in an article in www.industrie-techno.com A nurse at the local hospital had the test after treating Covid patients and having symptoms and that came back negative too.
Had my plasma test back. Not enough antibodies to give it to a patient. But not no antibodies. So I’ve had it.
As for that oxford vaccine. He who makes the most noise seldom wears the crown. It’s not going to work. The preclinical data are not encouraging, and with results like that for any other vaccine it would be terminated before an efficacy trial.
I don’t get excited by R. But I do get worried about evidence of exponential growth rates turning positive. I’ve run some outlier analyses and there are some hotspots of case reporting. I’m in the process of writing code to make maps (new skill for me).
Oh and forget hydroxychloroquine monotherapy. It doesn’t work. They’ve halted that arm of the recovery trial. Whether combination with azithromycin as an anti-inflammatory works is still moot and not being tested in that trial.
Something I predicted two months ago and also now published.
Madame had the Roche test and it was negative. She’s left wondering what she had if it wasn’t Covid. Roche claim 0% false negatives in an article
never trust the marketing bumpf!
PHE found otherwise
Considering the margin of error in these estimates gives ranges from 8% to 20% for Roche and 2% to 12% for Abbott.
PHE tests are propagating the test uncertainty using Bayesian methods. This leads to wide credibility intervals. Better than saying the tests aren’t useful. Something I also did when the first seroprevalence studies were published. Some movement in policy is a good thing.
Something I predicted two months ago and also now published.
Yes but you'll hardly ever be wrong in the world of drugs if you predict that something won't work or won't deliver what was hoped for. We all know that the percentage of things that really work of all those tested is minuscule. Actually probably most people don't know that but it doesn't make you Nostradamus just because you do 😉
Thanks for links, Kimbers.
I enjoyed the link to the Karl Friston interview posted above. Mainly because he wrote the book on some of the models that I use in a different context. He’s got a lot of experience fitting models to sparse and noisy data so I’m sure he’s right that you can get good fits to the data with a population where 80% are immune. Doesn’t mean that’s the case of course, but it’s an interesting hypothesis.
No it's not interesting it's the worst sort of anti-scientific bollocks typical of an old stale male who blunders into a field where they don't know anything and starts making stuff up. Real Dunning-Kruger stuff.
You couldn't even fit London data with an assumption of 80% immune, let alone areas such as Lombardy, Guayas, New York. It's just a stupid attempt to grab attention with "look at me, I'm edgy".
His "model" was a car-crash that predicted it would all be over by about now.
I do remember when the UK epidemic kicked in, in London mostly, that it wouldn’t be fair to impose a London-only lockdown.
We’re all in this together, team.
TBH for a bunch of crazed Brexiters you’d have thought they’d have locked down at the first sign of Covid, being an island and everything.
Hasn’t been much use that Taking Control of our Borders malarkey.
Interestingly I was looking at how well Albania handled it after hearing a caller mention it on LBC I think their around the 31 deaths in total. Interesting ban on cars etc to stop movement, bonuses to health staff.
I’m sure someone will be along to tell me how we’re different to them 🙂
(Sneaky addendum the’re now at 33)
I also think they don’t have the balls to do a proper regional lockdown as it would actually have to be policed but it does actually make sense.
Yes but you’ll hardly ever be wrong in the world of drugs if you predict that something won’t work or won’t deliver what was hoped for.
True. Except I also predicted that adding azithromycin will have an effect. There are good pharmacological reasons for this.
Saying an untested drug won’t work is easy. Providing a rationale for not spending £30M on a trial that everyone wants to do requires more evidence.
I model for a living. But I’m pretty skeptical of models for inference of biology. Multiple interpretations of the same functional form lead to difference interpretation. It seems scientists are happy to pick their favourite interpretation.
Rule 1. Do not fall in love with your model.
Rule 2. Other interpretations are available.
Rule 3. In data we trust.
I’m sure someone will be along to tell me how we’re different to them 🙂
I’ll take a swing at it 🤔
Former communist state created an environment where the population was better able to follow the rules whereas we have a high proportion of self entitled dicks that think rules and problems are for other people.
How’s that? 😀
I use SAS. Don’t care for R. It’s agricultural. But I have however discovered shape files and managed to produce maps down to the lower tier local authority level. It’s pretty cool stuff. Just need to merge the mapping with my analyses and add Scotland, Wales and NI.
I don't know anything about SAS but R and Python use gdal libraries which are basically using all the functions of a GIS package such as ESRI's ArcGIS.
They are very powerful when combined with Plotly, Leaflet etc.
Looking forward to seeing your output at some point.
Interresting take on R potentially increasing whilst cases drop, if most of the transmission is happening in specific settings such as hospitals and care homes transmission rates there could be significantly higher skewing the figure. Im not sure its the actually the case and have every expectation we will see another peak or even more probably and extended rounded hill as people flout lock down. We're squandering easing of lock down on jollies to the coast and re-openning of car show rooms and beauty salons whilst kids lose even more of their education.
I presume the lock down will be eased further by June 17th, otherwise we will have the bizarre situation of grown men grappling each other live on tv, while grandparents are still unable to hug their grandchildren.
@klunk - if you mean football, there's no grappling. It's just a display of confused wanna-be alpha male homoeroticism..its all hair gel, tattoos and lots of falling over in a camp way when your hair gets ruffled nowadays.
😉
I’ll take a swing at it
And you missed. Their government, like most countries, introduced measures to control the spread, especially geographically, that ours simply did not. Ours actively waited for the epidemic to reach most areas of the UK before introducing any measures at all, rather than attempt track/trace/isolate while the virus was only in a few areas. Oh, and, once some measures were finally introduced, the person making the decisions travelled from the most infected area to one of the least infected ones, despite thinking his family was infected, and even used the hospital there and had a lovely but far from essential birthday out. Why blame the public, not the donkeys?
I presume the lock down will be eased further by June 17th, otherwise we will have the bizarre situation of grown men grappling each other live on tv, while grandparents are still unable to hug their grandchildren.
I thought you meant UFC which has continued with its events, albeit behind closed doors, throughout the Pandemic, apart from one cancelled event at the height of the spread in America IIRC
It helps when the head honcho is a Trump supporting money obsessive
This weapons grade bellend, Dana White, is currently in a very amusing online spat with John Oliver
I presume the lock down will be eased further by June 17th
They changed it to every 28days, so the next review is 25th June
You can’t rule out Trump Johnson or one of his crew continuing to make things up as they go along, and announce more changes before then, without having anything ready to support those changes.
I really feel sorry for the Civil Servants who have to clear up the mess every time Johnson, Patel, Hancock make up something as they walk into the press conference.
It does seem that government policy is now whatever Boris or one of his clueless minions just blurts out.
It's clear from what the senior NHS Trust people are saying this morning that they certainly aren't being consulted about anything
Coronavirus: NHS trust bosses not consulted over new face mask rules
One of them on the radio this morning actually used the phrase 'making up policy on the hoof' with regard to Mattty Handjob
It seems like they really are, quite literally, making it up as they go along without any consultation with anybody at all
It doesn't really matter any more.
A significant number of people aren't listening. 'Let's meet up for a bike ride' 'Let's meet up for a protest' 'Let's go to the seaside like everyone else'
Keeping schools shut is a waste of time. All the kids around here are meeting up and mooching around in gangs
What do experts know anyway.. It's always just stuff that you don't want to hear.
I see what you did there boomerlives, you managed to equate protesting against systemic racial injustice with going for a bike ride or going to be beach.
Just slipped it in there......
I’ve just received an invite to a karaoke party! WTF??
It's an invitation, not an invite.
Madame had the Roche test and it was negative. She’s left wondering what she had if it wasn’t Covid
Possibly 229E, NL63, OC43 or HKU1 coronaviruses.
Why is the infection and death rate in the UK still so high?
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