Forum menu
Welsh schools are all going back at the end of June! This includes all years but not at the same time...roughly a third per day.
Seems to have taken most people, including this governor, by surprise.
mrmonkfinger
Member
Agree with admissions as the most likely to be accurate. Deaths also looks quite reliable, with a bigger lag.
But every now and then they seem to chuck in a few extra that were 'previously unaccounted for'. Is that because they are trying to make a particular day(s) better than it actually was?? The problem is that you cannot believe any of the stats they tell you anymore.
So, at PMQs the PM told us we are still at alert level four. So… what did he (or whoever was PM at the time) tell us the action should be in that case…?
Back into lockdown
But every now and then they seem to chuck in a few extra that were ‘previously unaccounted for’. Is that because they are trying to make a particular day(s) better than it actually was??
At the moment, almost all weekend figures are quite low, presumably because reporting just doesn't catch up until mon/tue. Easily averaged out though.
At the moment, almost all weekend figures are quite low, presumably because reporting just doesn’t catch up until mon/tue. Easily averaged out though.
I know that's not what you meant, but, as an aside, it's amazing how quickly we've gone from being panic stricken at a few new cases in Brighton to saying - 'only 100 deaths today, that's a lot better, isn't it!'.
Aye the acceptance of new normals doesn't take long, does it?. Scotland will be down into single figures soon, I'm sure that number makes some think it's okay to do as they please...
To be fair, it's a lot better than 1000/day of early/mid April.
Still not low enough though.
Success looks like S. Korea or Germany to my uneducated eyes.
Welsh schools are all going back at the end of June! This includes all years but not at the same time…roughly a third per day.
Seems to have taken most people, including this governor, by surprise.
Our school has been expecting / planning for reopening for a few weeks now. Although I don't think anyone was expecting this 3rds thing.
Maybe it's the disappointment showing, but it's seems 'worst of both worlds' to me. Not nearly enough to help the economy or really have a positive effect on education, but exposes Teachers and staff.
It's put me in a very, very difficult position. I came back to work this week, I'm here this week end next whilst my Wife finishes off her Bereavement Leave. I was hoping / expecting that I may have to go back to WFH for a week and then I'd be able to work again up to the Summer Hols, our Summer childcare provision is based on Schools being open, but we don't know how that will stack up now.
Now, I'n here for 2 weeks, then home for a week, then possibly coming in for 1 or 2 days a week until, well possibly September. Although they may allow children of key Workers to let their kids go in full-time, but whilst the Welsh Gov says that "either parent" our school quiet militantly said "only if BOTH parents are key workers". I am a key worker, but I don't work in the Public sector so they didn't count me.
Thinking about it on a national Level, our competitors in England are open, we're only 'sort of' because half of us have Primary School age kids. Most of our clients are in Wales and in a similar position.
The Teaching Unions of course are dead against it, but I can't think of a plan they wouldn't be against short of 'No School until there's a Vaccine', but with 25% of Teachers being Furloughed and numbers rising, how many will want to be out of work until September.
I know that’s not what you meant, but, as an aside, it’s amazing how quickly we’ve gone from being panic stricken at a few new cases in Brighton to saying – ‘only 100 deaths today, that’s a lot better, isn’t it!’.
I know what you mean, but it's not like COVID isn't' dominating every part of the Media and frankly our lives.
I don't think anyone is rejoicing because only 100 people died, but because fewer people are dying every day.
Plus there's some evidence coming out of Italy that the Virus is evolving to be a better Virus, I.E. one that doesn't kill it's host. "Viral Loads" whatever they in new patients are much lower than before.
I don’t think anyone is rejoicing because only 100 people died,
I just thought that it's interesting to see how much our perspective on the stats has changed in a few weeks. I mean, the government is using that reaction as the supporting force for lockdown decisions. If we'd been at 50-100 deaths a day in March, with no lockdown, people would be tearing their hair out. I was pretty much doing that in the weeks running up to lockdown, with only a handful of deaths.
Viral load is the amount of virus particles in a sample taken from an infected patient. If a patient has a high viral load, it follows that they are more likely to shed large amounts of virus when they cough etc. So are more likely to infect others. Not sure about the relationship between viral load and mortality. There has been some implication that people exposed to a high infectious dose (health workers etc) are more likely to die, but not sure the science really supports that.
I was pretty much doing that in the weeks running up to lockdown, with only a handful of deaths.
I'm still pretty much doing that now that the chumps in charge are starting to ease lockdown with only our world beating track and trace system to fall back on.
Well two and a half months after having symptoms Madame has just had a negative antibody test. So it seems she had something else, unless... .
Considering all the Anti- Ibuprofen stuff a few months ago….
It's a trial, nothing wrong with testing a hypothesis (provided the trial is adequately powered to do so).
In other news, you may have missed the first data for the moderate remdesivir trial. Not yet published, but a press release here https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200601005310/en/Gilead-Announces-Results-Phase-3-Trial-Remdesivir
Gilead's shares fell on the news. Some signal of a modest improvement in the 5-day treatment group but not the 10-day group (why would that be?). I'm not holding my breath for the final data (this was a headline), nor the data in the severe population. The entry criteria for this moderate trial (O2 > 94% on room air) would not get you admitted to a UK hospital, so it will be interesting to see the breakdown of patients by country.
Analysis of video footage obtained subsequently suggests that this was not the case
As a left leaning voter, Skwawkbox, along with the Canary and Novara, are “news” organisations I avoid religiously. They increasingly seem to exist solely to keep the Tories in power, and have a bit of a laugh (and earn some money) at the expense of people that adversely effects. Don’t legitimise them by sharing their nonsense BillMC. Plenty of real journalists that need our engagement and support.
The French advice to avoid Ibuprofen was based the fact it surpressed the immune sytem in the early stages of illness and that all the young victims of Covid in France had been found to have taken Ibuprofen. This latest study using Ibuprofen in the later stages when the problem is more often the immune system over reacting and an immuno-surpressant might be useful.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52904433
I'm astonished that our world beating Track and Trace system is completely dysfunctional. Didn't see that one coming at all. I assume that our careful, science-led Government of experts wouldn't dream of lying to us about the efficacy of their world beating invention...?
So how does Track and Trace work if you dont know the names of the people you chatted with while infectious?
1) Dave from the Park with the dog
2) Mark (or maybe Gary) his son was in the same swimming class as my son 4 years ago
3) Bob - has an Orange 5. 26er.
etc.
Well obviously 3) is going to get it. On malicious grounds alone. I think you already know the answer. I’d be surprised if they trace more than five contacts for a case. I caught the 8:50 to Waterloo. I was on the train for 45 minutes...
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1268256786747883533?s=19
Let's see if they all self isolate
https://twitter.com/KingOfSunshine/status/1268265103499108353?s=19
Please tell me Sharma was next to Jacob Rees-Mogg
Just when you thought the government couldnt fk things up any more
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1268262686825070594
should they not ALL be self isolating now, or are they waiting for the phone call from the worlds best track and trace system?
It's ok, they were all social distancing so they will be safe (sadly this may be true for a lot of them, despite the fact a good dose of this might give them a much needed reality check, i know this is bad ofme,but please please let rees mogg get it
they werent able to self isolate at all times
https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1267879200855396355
In which case I really really hope the minister for the 18th century gets it. Utter stupidity, all in the name of getting some bojo supporters in to pmqs and giving an illusion that us plebs should go back to work as our masters are
3) Bob – has an Orange 5. 26er.
Should ride a 29er. 3" more social distance.
Sorry to divert, did anyone else feel that Vallance and Whitt’s came across as somewhat more nervous regarding the current state of infections / R today?
I have the nerve wracking feeling they know somethings coming.
I’s say cautious rather than nervous. As we all should be at this point.
I have the nerve wracking feeling they know somethings coming.
colleague at west london hospital said theyd had no new cases for 5 days
then 15 in last 36 hours
Im sure CMO has up to date figures for admissions across country
A quick and balanced look back on the Swedish approach so far:
https://apnews.com/9598f7ad95967e4d6f507d526dce0c68
Anyone watch the newsnight report on social care. Awful. A decent organisation trying to do the right thing for their residents and staff. 10% of residents died. Three staff. No testing was available. At all. They saw a doubling of death rate. Which is in line with the excess deaths estimates. And a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Which in that population is interesting.
Well, Johnson is proud…
https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1268299584117379074?s=21
They’re hoping no one will think about excess deaths outside hospitals, or compare our ongoing death rates with other countries.
Dispatches and Newsnight both essential viewing tonight. This government has failed, and is still failing.
Yep, ludicrous leftie earpiece conspiracy emphatically denied by the Express, Sun and Metro.
We're doing so well! There were 324 deaths announced yesterday for UK, EU 27 announced 323 deaths for the day.
We’re doing so well! There were 324 deaths announced yesterday for UK, EU 27 announced 323 deaths for the day.
HOw much of that is down to the government and how much down to the idiots that live in this country ?
I think it is difficult to say, especially if the guidance given for how to reduce risk is not clear and leadership is not setting a good example.
People will be idiots (as has been seen), no matter who they are, and that idiocy might have an impact on the sensible people that genuinely are trying to do the right thing.
HOw much of that is down to the government and how much down to the idiots that live in this country ?
Impossible to say, if the government hadn't sat on their hands for 3 weeks in march? The only clear message we have had through all of this (from westminster anyway) was the initial lockdown, it's been a pollution of buffoonery ever since - getting MP's back into westminster for example, an MP is the very epitome of the type of role that can be done from home.
Watch Sturgeon the same day as you watch BawJaws, you'll see the difference in clarity. The problem for us up here is that there's a section of dyed in the wool unionists that will listen to BawJaws instead, as they see the SNP as the devil incarnate.
Of course it's difficult, but look at the Rubbish thread, the Costa/McDonlads, the beaches, the parks... That's at least as much down to the society we have as the government. I'm not saying the gov have done it right, not by a long way... But the society in this country is now becoming as much of a factor as the Gov in this. You can have as many messages as you want now, people are clearly ignoring them anyway.
You can have as many messages as you want now
That's the problem, it only worked when we had that one clear message, late march, stay at home. BawJaws then ****ed off and put all and sundry up on a daily basis and diluted the message to the point that the great unwashed don't give a **** any more.
You can defend the cabal all you want, but this whole thing is their responsibility, you wanted the power BawJaws, get on with it.
But knowing the society we have, the Gove decided “people will be sensible” rather than actually enforce rules.
Ok, the fact they have run down police numbers so proper enforcement isn’t possible is a big factor....
You can defend the cabal all you want, but this whole thing is their responsibility, you wanted the power BawJaws, get on with it.
I'm not defending anyone, i'm not discussing the politics of it... I'm just making a point. Not everything has to be about your side winning, someone elses being wrong... It can just be a discussion about the situation we're in... Don't make it political all the time fella.
Weeksy has a good point we all have to take some responsibility for our actions
That said other countries have maintained much stricter discipline, were not really that different from Spain, Italy or France or even Germany who now have far less daily deaths than us thanks to sticking to those rules, when it mattered.
As those countries that locked down sooner and/or tighter were emerging from lockdown I think we as a society & government looked on enviously & decided we deserve the same.
I'm this instance we really are all in it together, unfortunately the failure has been from the political elites , as well as wider society
Don’t make it political all the time fella.
You asked a question about the government or the peoples fault, that's a political question, I only responded as I see it. I've repeatedly, as have others, on this thread asked to keep it on track with regards to the topic, I wanna listen to certain people with relevant knowledge on this, not the brexit echo chamber type thread.
HOw much of that is down to the government and how much down to the idiots that live in this country ?
This is exactly the 'takeaway' impression that ministers were hoping for. Vague messaging, weak measures, and then when the predictable thing happens, it's all the public's fault for being naughty.
A week may be a long time in politics, but, it's when you're talking about trying to put the brakes on a pandemic which doubles every two to three days, it's a ****ing eternity.