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TiReD
Easiest. Prediction. In. History.
Leadership is about taking unpopular decisions and carrying the populace with clear explanation. That explanation was available from before Christmas. That the epidemic was growing in the South due to a more transmissible strain and Tier 4 may not be sufficient due to schools.
It’s not actually THAT much more transmissible to be honest, but things have been balanced with R about unity so even a modest increase is enough to set things off again.
Is it not a bit immaterial why it was spreading at the rate it did from an action POV?
I'm not disputing the reason (new strain) though I suspect it is only a part of the larger reasons I'm just asking since we knew the infections were growing and the rate was increasing is that not enough to put the brakes on? (I'm asking scientifically not politically)
As I said months ago ... and not knocking your models in terms of details and prediction but surely a hand drawn log normal graph would have shown the need to have some sort of intervention before XMAS?
Ok hope we see an effect next week. But the one think that can not be recreated from the march lockdown is the fear. So I'm still not optimistic.
I’m not sure anyone is saying full lockdown is a good thing. Sadly it seems to be the only thing that will prevent deaths until the rollout of the vaccine.
Quite interesting bit on C4 news at the moment - talking about mutation risk undoing everything if the virus keeps circulating at high levels. They were saying even at 2million it takes over a year to vaccinate everyone. I think realistically we aren't going to hit 2million a week for a month or two or three - operation moonshot being the form horse?
Is it not a bit immaterial why it was spreading at the rate it did from an action POV?
yes, this. We must not let the fact that they only learned about the new strain until mid December obscure the fact that cases were skyrocketing by then. They should have acted on what was in front of them, you don't need to know what caused the victim's wound to know that you have to stop the bleeding.
Most of Scotlands population is in the central belt which is fairly densely populated. something like 4 million people in a strip around 60 miles x 30 miles ish
Got a text, earlier to book mum's jab!
Click on link then get taken to available appointments at a centre about 10 minutes drive away. Booked for Friday.
Could have got it done tomorrow but I need time to get mum round to the idea of leaving the house, it'll take some gentle, persistent cohersion.
I'm over the moon. Aged 91, we are down in Rochester in Kent.
Kelvin
Worth looking at hospital occupancy while you’re there.
I have a non urgent, non critical appointment tomorrow at 10am ... then sit around for a few hours before a scan.
No idea if I should/can go or not at this point but its pointless unless I can do the second scan in a week. I'm not even sure when I can repeat the dose to start again. (Assuming it's inadvisable to keep swallowing radio isotopes that should still be in me a week later)
poop - hope it goes smoothly for you.
Got a text, earlier to book mum’s jab!
Click on link then get taken to available appointments at a centre about 10 minutes drive away. Booked for Friday.
Great news!
theotherjonv
We must not let the fact that they only learned about the new strain until mid December obscure the fact that cases were skyrocketing by then. They should have acted on what was in front of them, you don’t need to know what caused the victim’s wound to know that you have to stop the bleeding.
I suspect part of the political answer will be about "scientific evidence"
As for Hunt .. why not just do like Iceland (the country not frozen food shop) and stop the politics and start acting on the scientific advice.
I’m over the moon. Aged 91, we are down in Rochester in Kent.
Jeez. How old is your mother?
Aged 91, we are down in Rochester in Kent.
Jeez. How old is your mother?
He has to go up into the attic to ask her. 🙂
Thanks guys.
Going to be a nightmare with mum as she hasn't left the house in about 18 months.... But im just so relieved.
Booking was extremely simple/fast via the app. Mandatory to wait at the centre for 15 minutes after and anyone on warfarin must bring their "yellow book", mum's not on it though anyway. They note that all doors and windows will be open and to dress warm.
I’m just asking since we knew the infections were growing and the rate was increasing is that not enough to put the brakes on?
That’s what Sage said.
Exams cancelled, why weren’t schools already working/accessing for that?
Schools open for one pointless day of spreading.
Late, late, late.
Waiting for the update....a bit disappointed they didn't have it synchronised
That’s what Sage said.
Once again illustrating the difference between following the scientific advice as acting on it.
Or maybe just illustrating the lack of good old British common sense ... even I could see that.
You can tell by his watch that he has pre-recorded this speech, presumably to avoid any mistakes or slip-ups.
Odds on he's pissed already?
scotroutes pic
I'd welcome her down here if you can spare but remember Jacina Harden did her exam last year (March 1st) and has got her results and is now gainfully employed.
Odds on he’s pissed already?
That's not a bad idea actually ... I should get slaughtered before I watch him!
Exams cancelled,
Nope. Usual cagey wording - just that 'some of them cannot take place in their current format'.
It's up to Gavlar and Ofqual now - we're in safe hands...
FFS
Keep kicking that can…
Must be serious given how tight a lead hes on, no wiggle waffle for once. All too late that.
can I still wonder round the town centre and get a takeaway coffee?
essential?
hmmmmm
No doubt the garden centres will stay open.
Not 1 use of his beloved 'alas!' I iz disapoint.
I'm a key worker this time around.....how proud I feel 😂
Exams cancelled, why weren’t schools already working/accessing for that?
As of COB today, they were under strenuous pressure to stay open.
The careful wording around exams has been noted Chez Pondo - Mrs Pondo very annoyed every time a journalist says they've been cancelled, as that wasn't what he said...
surely a hand drawn log normal graph would have shown the need to have some sort of intervention before XMAS?
These were provided to SAGE with recommendations previously. I said schools would not be going back a few weeks ago. I’m sure prudent head teachers were thinking this already.
poop – hope it goes smoothly for you
Chuckles
Couldn't bear to watch the drivel, I've just read the summaries online and then the official guidance - which is pants. Too much use of "should" instead of "must" and some great advice (not)
"If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work."
So I should stay in my village if I'm out for a permitted reason (e.g. shopping- the village shop's going to be busy, might have to open in the afternoon) but I may leave the village for a permitted reason (e.g. shopping - so the Tesco on the main road is OK after all).
Restaurants can continue to offer delivery for food, but takeaway alcohol will be banned.
Is going out for alcohol essential
Yes.
Is going out for alcohol essential
Alcohol yes, shoes no. What a world.
Cycling shoes should be OK.
I assume gyms are closing again?
No doubt the garden centres will stay open
Guidance says yes. As do bike shops though which is better news (I hate gardening).
Restaurants can continue to offer delivery for food, but takeaway alcohol will be banned.
This is strange. It appears my local brewery can deliver me some beer, but I can’t pick it up. Yet I can pick up the same beer from the local beer shop 1/2 a mile away.
Feels like they’re screwing pubs who’ve tried to find another revenue stream for no apparent reason.
Feels like they’re screwing pubs who’ve tried to find another revenue stream for no apparent reason.
We walked past a local doing takeaway drink just before Christmas, there must have been about a hundred people in groups of twos, fours and more standing around quaffing. There’s another posh bar near us which has been catering for this trade for weeks. Some pubs and bars have been fully complicit in it, not selling kegs or similar but booze by the glass.
Poop- take plenty of warm clothes, a flask and possibly a camping chair.
My Mums down the road in Larkfield- a lot of her older friends have been jabbed (she’s the baby of her circle at 76) but have had waits of up to an hr outside the venue. So if Covid doesn’t get the octogenarians, the cold probably will.
Her neighbour, although fit & mobile for an over 80yo was struggling after standing for so long.
Churches and the like also seem to be allowed to open for communal worship.
Hope they pray extra hard.
We walked past a local doing takeaway drink just before Christmas, there must have been about a hundred people in groups of twos, fours and more standing around quaffing. There’s another bar near us which has been catering for this trade for weeks. Some pubs and bars have been fully complicit in it.
Yet the only 2 near me doing takeout we’re doing it with a strict one day system and no waiting at all.
They were just trying to keep a roof over their heads.
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Watch time looks spot on to me, so live or watch wound forward.
Captain Cockwomble still couldn't resist a dig/comparison with the rest of europe even though they were aggressively defensive about making comparisons when the boot was on the other foot. Reprehensible little man.
Re: Wales -
"How much has it gone up?"
North Wales has gone mental:
Everyone in effective lockdown since 20th December remember...
South Wales more stable, but rates seem to have risen after the end of the 'firebreak' from 23/10 to 9/11
Stats (and plenty of others) here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643
What's actually changed in the restrictions between tier 4 and now? Other than schools closing (but they've not been open since mid December anyway!)
Struggling to see this as anything other than changing the name of the arrangements to lockdown.
Yet the only 2 near me doing takeout we’re doing it with a strict one day system and no waiting at all.
They were just trying to keep a roof over their heads.
No doubt. My local has been shut pretty much all the way few, unfortunately a few outlets have messed it up for those trying to keep a roof over their heads
Another question.
What happened to "No car, no gnar and not far"
It seems more appropriate now than ever, the Lakes fells were quiet in the beautiful spring of last year, yet now it's really icy, there are bikes everywhere!
Huge thanks for the heads up there matey. That's useful to know. She'll be in a wheel chair so I'll wrap her up with a hot water bottle and a tonne of layers/ warm hat.
A for a couple of the other comments a couple of you made, only just read those. Cheeky buggers.Lol 😁
Another question.
What happened to “No car, no gnar and not far”
It seems more appropriate now than ever, the Lakes fells were quiet in the beautiful spring of last year, yet now it’s really icy, there are bikes everywhere!
This was discussed at length... what's safer, leaving the car at home and going for a road ride from the door around the local streets in the dark with nutters driving about and possibly being knocked off or hitting a pedestrian, or taking my mtb in the car 3 miles to a local woods and doing some light xc.
It was never an appropriate sentiment. One of those things that sounds good but has unintended consequences.
What’s actually changed in the restrictions between tier 4 and now? Other than schools closing (but they’ve not been open since mid December anyway!)
You can’t leave your town, exercise is local only, pubs can’t do takeaway alcohol, zoos are closed, schools are closed, no outside sports and exams are being reviewed. That should keep you going for now.
Not much from Monsieur Sunak. I'm guessing the party machine has squished him over the holidays
These were provided to SAGE with recommendations previously. I said schools would not be going back a few weeks ago. I’m sure prudent head teachers were thinking this already.
Do you know Bob Newman from SAS? He found a load of old LN and LL paper the other day.
airvent - how about riding those 3 miles - thats the safest of the lot!
Driving 3 miles to ride? utterly ridiculous
No exams can't be cancelled
Williamson been saying die kittens they definitely wont
As for Johnson giving teachers & parents 12 hrs notice after repeatedly insisting on Marr yesterday morning he wouldn't...
Was it because he just can't be honest with people & is so desperate to be liked he can't deliver bad news?
Or just coz Starmer predicted this?
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1346173536818360321?s=19
"You can’t leave your town, exercise is local only"
I thought that was already in the tier 4 arrangements? Schools have effectively been closed since early/mid December, so the only difference is takeaway alcohol and zoos being closed?
A bit flippant, I know. But my point was that it doesn't seem enough. I can't see any changes that are likely to reduce the case rates. The schools is an obvious one that they should have moved online in November, but the rates have been going up despite no kids in schools over December anyway.
You can’t leave your town, exercise is local only, pubs can’t do takeaway alcohol, zoos are closed, schools are closed, no outside sports and exams are being reviewed. That should keep you going for now.
As you mention local exercise.. gov site says mustn't leave village, town or city. So does that mean if you live in a small village, your cycle will be confined to going around the block many times?? It's once again confusing.
Lucky buggers in the big cities then.
Oh and Neb, you can only exercise once a day
airvent – how about riding those 3 miles – thats the safest of the lot!
Driving 3 miles to ride? utterly ridiculous
I'd ride the three miles, it's just an example of how the no car, no gnar thing isn't as clear cut as some would like it to be.
This was discussed at length… what’s safer, leaving the car at home and going for a road ride from the door around the local streets in the dark with nutters driving about and possibly being knocked off or hitting a pedestrian, or taking my mtb in the car 3 miles to a local woods and doing some light xc.
It was never an appropriate sentiment. One of those things that sounds good but has unintended consequences.
I can kind of see your argument for not driving, however the not far and no gnar stuff seems really appropriate and I'm surprised it's not being pushed by the bike media as much as it was in April/may.
The government guidance goes on to say you can leave your town if you need to for essential purposes, which include exercise.
I'm not saying you should, just pointing out the obvious problem. Again.
No car, not far, no gnar was a perfect sentiment, and is again. Some are lucky to have decent riding on the doorstep, others aren't. There are bigger problems to have right now, sadly.
As you mention local exercise.. gov site says mustn’t leave village, town or city. So does that mean if you live in a small village, your cycle will be confined to going around the block many times?? It’s once again confusing.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Lucky buggers in the big cities then</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> </span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Oh and Neb, you can only exercise once a day</span>
Yeah, but isn't exercise an essential activity? You are allowed to travel for that. The exercise is still unlimited in duration.
Tier 4 zoo was already shut.
So the lakes is fair game for anyone if they can drive there and back in a day.
Morally it's not right, but the restrictions don't go far enough in my opinion and the media are not pushing the message of what is and isn't appropriate.
Just look at the social media coming from the biking community...
For example:
Don't get me wrong I'd love to be doing that now, (and I was up until about 4 weeks ago.) just not when the hospitals are full to bursting
So the lakes is fair game for anyone if they can drive there and back in a day.
**** what you think you can get away with without breaking the letter of the restrictions. Rule one. Don’t be a dick.
Cumbria hospitals are fully stretched right now. Already. It will get worse for them over the next few weeks. Stay at home.
No idea if I should/can go or not at this point but its pointless unless I can do the second scan in a week. I’m not even sure when I can repeat the dose to start again. (Assuming it’s inadvisable to keep swallowing radio isotopes that should still be in me a week later)
My experience in December is that routine and elective procedures are well away from the hot wards and ne'er the two shall meet. It would be prudent to isolate until you've been seen though.
This is strange. It appears my local brewery can deliver me some beer, but I can’t pick it up. Yet I can pick up the same beer from the local beer shop 1/2 a mile away.
Feels like they’re screwing pubs who’ve tried to find another revenue stream for no apparent reason.
Ms Sandwich has just escaped from the pub trade, she relates that the problem is with customers who will not stay seated or obey the rules and get raucous when reminded. Staff were getting thoroughly sick of dealing with overgrown children. All the people taking it very seriously will not be in the pub leaving only the difficult types for minimum wage staff to manage. (A gross simplification but reasonably valid).
Morally it’s not right, but the restrictions don’t go far enough in my opinion and the media are not pushing the message of what is and isn’t appropriate.
The detail will be in the law that will no doubt be published 5 minutes before it goes live, currently on guidance is available. I suspect that Johnson will bottle the need to be prescriptive for the hard of understanding that want to push the rules.
Morally it’s not right, but the restrictions don’t go far enough in my opinion and the media are not pushing the message of what is and isn’t appropriate.
Very much this. Sadly there aren't the resources to effectively enforce the "rules". And the media have normalised the bending/ignoring/flouting of the rules - all those interviews with 8 people sat together in a pub in the summer - same household/two metres my arse!
I can't find any guidance to say exercise is allowed outside local area or that it is essential. My Google Fu fails me.
**** what you think you can get away with without breaking the letter of the restrictions. Rule one. Don’t be a dick.
Completely agree. Unfortunately there are lots of idiots out there.
From a purely selfish point of view any non life-threatening injury will not be treated. So potential life changing injuries could result. A mate of mine ripped his bicep tendons off the bone in may, missed the window of opportunity to reattach and has now lost 60% movement in his right arm. All due to the first wave and the number of covid patients. Its significantly worse in the hospital's at the moment.
I can’t find any guidance to say exercise is allowed outside local area or that it is essential. My Google Fu fails me.
Thankfully our laws don't work like that. We need to wait until the legislation is published but it's very unlikely to limit travel for the non exhaustive list of reasonable excuses to leave our homes.
So the lakes is fair game for anyone if they can drive there and back in a day.
Not one that could be reasonably arrived at when it clearly states:
exercise with your household (or support bubble) or one other person, this should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
stay local – meaning avoiding travelling outside of your village, town or the part of a city where you live
outdoor exercise. This should be done locally wherever possible, but you can travel a short distance within your area to do so if necessary (for example, to access an open space)
One good thing for me. I don't feel guilty riding into tier 2 North Yorkshire from tier 3 West Yorkshire.
Here's a handy calculator to figure out when you might get vaccinated..
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
For most of us its going to take a year.
Thats if the virus hasnt mutated by then and decided its bored with taking out old people and ups its lethality by 10% for a laugh..
I can’t find any guidance to say exercise is allowed outside local area or that it is essential. My Google Fu fails me.
exercise with your household (or support bubble) or one other person, this should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
I'm not sure what the legal definition of local will be, and I suspect that it will be rather vague
Actually the guidance is a bit contradictory
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
**** what you think you can get away with without breaking the letter of the restrictions. Rule one. Don’t be a dick.
Also don't be a dick in expecting other people to follow arbitrary rules you've decided they should. If they break the law feel free to complain but otherwise be kind.
Not one that could be reasonably arrived at when it clearly states:
That's why I was asking earlier about difference between tier 4 and lockdown. Tier 4 rules didn't have the local bit. I couldn't see that when I looked earlier.
And just like that the nastiness is back. What is it about these lockdowns that people feel the need to be dickheads about?
TJ
airvent – how about riding those 3 miles – thats the safest of the lot!
Driving 3 miles to ride? utterly ridiculous
Yes and no ....
As per last lockdown the first 1/2m-1m from my house is by far the riskiest COVID wise.
My local loop is either 45min-1hr or 4-5 hours... (70km-80km) [I use it in klm not miles simply cos it feels better to do 80km than 50m]
After the 1st mile I see almost noone... 1st mile I am literally in crowded parks, paths... and pass two kids playgrounds that will be rammed unless I ride on the road - a concept I find equally ridiculous 😉
In the vast scheme of things I'd not feel bad driving to where it's safe.
As soon as you start trying to please everyone life becomes infinitely complicated.
Assuming my hospital appointment is not cancelled tomorrow (they aren't picking up so don't know and presume they are busy so not redialing) I have to get there.
I'd planned to ride ... then there is a "request" from Surrey Hills Residents not to ride into Surrey Hills. Though the hospital is outside the AONB and the "additional counted as AGLV" I'd be passing through 100' here and there several times unless I ride on major A roads.
Part of me is thinking just drive, part of me is thinking just sod the Surrey Hills request ... part of me is thinking should I really be having a non urgent procedure I don't know if I can get the 2nd test in a weeks time and do I want to swallow of load of radioisotopes if I can't get the second scan in a week?
Then..I think back and NOTHING has actually changed since this time yesterday...all the Borisisms are based on old data... infection rate was through the roof here from 2 weeks before XMAS so what's actually different? So I'm left going back to "is it legal" rather than "is it right".
from
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
This is guidance, rather than law and should vs must, etc., but seems like intent is there.
So I’m left going back to “is it legal” rather than “is it right”.
You know what to do.
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
In various sections it says:
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work
exercise with your household (or support bubble) or one other person, this should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
Exercise – You can continue to exercise alone, with one other person or with your household or support bubble. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
outdoor exercise. This should be done locally wherever possible, but you can travel a short distance within your area to do so if necessary (for example, to access an open space)