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Does the IOW app work?
It's world class, which is like one more than working. Other countries apps only go up to working but ours goes all the way up to world class. What do they do if they want a bit more than working, they can't go anywhere but we can get that extra push over the cliff....
My first comment on this thread.
Whilst I agree the government have made a complete mess of managing the Covid-19 emergency I've always suspected they've been acting on unreliable advice with neither Sir Patrick Vallance nor Chris Whitty ever having filled me with confidence that they had a handle on things. This summary of the SAGE minutes in the Guardian confirms that SAGE have been out of touch and behind the curve all along
The government isn’t in some bubble where they can’t read wider, and check advice from other UK and international, and multi-national, sources. If they can be bothered, and are capable. The PM’s attention was elsewhere, and he and Cummings had centralised control, so that other ministers had become little more than PR men and women. This is all on Cummings and Johnson.
I agree all it would have taken was to look at what was happening in Italy and Spain and ask SAGE "in what way are we different from these countries?" The answer should have been "not significantly" and in that case we should have started lock down immediately two weeks before we actually did it which would have saved thousands of lives. Having said that it appears that the so called experts in SAGE couldn't even put together that simple reasoning let alone the bimbling old Etonian
I agree all it would have taken was to look at what was happening in Italy and Spain and ask SAGE “in what way are we different from these countries?
It was a farce everyone sat around watching the terrible Italy scenes, the media branding it all a disaster the Italian doctors warning that you won’t believe what your going to run out of.
You didn’t need to be the smartest bloke in the room to realise that This was likely to end up on your doorstep, business were preparing for WFH and the grownups were cancelling mass events before the vague don’t go to the pub and realisation that they’d fkd up.
It’s another Scenario of being an unwitting passenger in a bus driven by a bunch of ****in incompetents.
TLDR you don’t need a fireman to tell you your house is on fire before you do something about it.
This does not inspire confidence, and seems to reinforce the worries SAGE advisors have gone public with over the past few hours
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown
This BBC article concerns me - either some of the experts are trying to cover their arse cos they got it wrong, or they are getting their defence in early for when the government throws them under a bus. Or both.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Risk in UK lockdown easing too soon, warn scientists
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392
It’s always been a balance of science, politics and economy, with the Government steering the ship in their desired direction I don’t see why people are shocked at that revelation.
I'm amazed it's taken SAGE so long to cover their backs, because in all likelihood, Monday is the seeding a second wave of deaths in mid June... If it hasn't already started in the last few days.
Kryton +1
Lockdown isn't just about pure science.
There's huge political, social and financial influence.
A third member of SAGE now saying we’re being too hasty with lock down. I don’t think they’re “covering their arses”, I think they are speaking out to encourage us to act ourselves where the government doesn’t want to. Don’t treat June in the way the government are suggesting… keep existing measures going ‘till July if you can.
I'm astonished that they were so naive as to walk into that elephant trap in the first place, and they are certainly bleeding credibility the longer they stay on SAGE.
Science never decides. It's one of the most fundamental points to learn when you're involved in decision support at any level, especially in anything politically sensitive. Hume worked this out several centuries ago FFS.
Even if the scientist says "action A will result in 8k deaths and a cost of 6% of GDP, action B will kill 40k people and cost 10% of GDP" it is still the politician who decides which course of action to take.
I was being too blunt with the "covering their arses" comment. I understand the economic and social aspects of the lockdown decision to start with. Whoever made the call, for whatever reason, got it at least a week too late. That seemed likely at the time - so many people were already taking their own action - and it seems virtually certain looking back now with hindsight.
As for coming out of lockdown, we're being very cautious about it. Eldest may go into college as a Year 12 for some tutor meetings, but college are saying that's at least 2 more weeks away.
This is MrsMC 's last week working frontline child protection before moving to a new job with a different authority. Two primary schools in her patch are closed with confirmed virus cases. Hoping she doesn't bring that legacy home with her when she clears her desk.
This whole strategy of telling us days in advance that our liberties are officially going to change has been a Boris level act of stupidity...
Did they not learn from the Wetherspoons & co. madness following "the pubs must close from tonight" announcement?
What possible good (in terms of controlling the virus and saving lives) came from Boris telling us on the afternoon of Thursday 28th May, that in England, we can officially meet in groups of six from Monday 1st June? The "teachers pet" sensible ones will wait to Monday, but anyone on the fence about being sick of lockdown is simply more likley to push the boundaries and socialise beforehand.
This whole strategy of telling us days in advance that our liberties are officially going to change has been a Boris level act of stupidity…
I've asked this question already - why were the new freedoms delayed by 3 days anyway? Nicola Sturgeon announced them on Thursday with effect from Friday (in line with a previously published roadmap).
why were the new freedoms delayed by 3 days anyway?
Obviously making sure front pages are free of Cummings , with some feel good news for Johnson to announce, he feeds on that BS
Not just Cummings, to be avoided, track & trace is non existent
Testing is way short of where it needs to be
Total death rate IS world beating ...
Johnson's this close from turning the daily briefing into a raffle with a tombola offering day trips to Barnard Castle or a lifetimes supply of PPE to a lucky NHS worker, ANYTHING to detract from the disaster he has presided over
Monday is the seeding a second wave of deaths in mid June… If it hasn’t already started in the last few days.
has there been a VE related spike? I’ve seen nothing to suggest there was.
zero new cases in my local authority area for three weeks now, when do we get regional area restrictions?
Government saying they follow the science while SAGE saying its not an exact science.
Other countries apps only go up to working but ours goes all the way up to world class.
So is that the equivalent of eleven?
There are some mini-spikes after the bank holidays but that was deemed an issue of slow reporting. It's the 2-4 weeks after each BH that will tell you if there was an indicative signal in the data. This is where not using a log scale can help lesser mortals understand the graphs.
I can't be arsed digging out the graphs but no doubt someone will. If VE Day had an impact we'd start to see it now.
There were about 20+ over-50s having a party in a field 200m from my house on VE Day. None of your 2m apart malarkey. I hope they caught cat AIDS or badger cough or something. ****less morons.
The cases have been trending up the last three days on the rolling 7 day average, made it weird on the briefing yesterday when they said they are relaxing lockdown as cases clearly trending down and bring up graph showing a clear break in the longterm downward trend. Could be a reporting issue, could be a short term blip, guess time will tell
Don't know if shared already but this 5 page dashboard has one page estimating R in your local authoirty area:
https://app.deckzero.com/deck/UK-Covid-19-Monitor-MTMzODU0MDMyMjU/4
Cases need to be adjusted by tests. Tests are increasing so more cases are found. That does not necessarily indicate more transmission. Deaths are a better but lagged metric. Interesting, the lag between cases and deaths is only about five days. And that’s global and local.
Cases need to be adjusted by tests. Tests are increasing so more cases are found. That does not necessarily indicate more transmission. Deaths are a better but lagged metric. Interesting, the lag between cases and deaths is only about five days. And that’s global and local.
Guess this isn't helped by the Governments apparent inability to report number of people tested. only tests carried out
Looking at the FT tracker, deaths have alse trended up the last three days, there might be a bank holiday effect in the reporting but there wasn't to this extent in the prior bank holidays
So is that the equivalent of eleven?
Exactly, although I think there might be an announcement coming soon to say it's going to be delayed so that it can go all the way to 12 when launched, no longer just world class but stellar!
greentricky - the gov have decided to not publish the number of people tested; it's not that they don't have the information.
We're heading for another wave. Imminently. Our politicians and media have led us to believe that we have this beat and it's on its way out. Folk have basically stopped caring as it's "only" 300 deaths per day. Even a simple measure like wearing a face covering in busy indoor spaces is being ignored. Campervans and motor homes are now wandering the country, unfettered by any police action. Second homes are being occupied. The panic buying of hand cleanser is over. Folk just aren't taking the care they were.
Enjoy these few brief weeks of "freedom" while they last, then look forward to another lockdown taking us up to the winter.
Guess this isn’t helped by the Governments apparent inability to report number of people tested. only tests carried out
Not even that if they count nasal and throat swabs on the same person as 2 tests. Welcome to Chernobyl.
I don’t think we’re on for another wave… I just don’t think there is the political will to end the current one, now that they think it is low enough to stop dominating the news agenda… few enough daily deaths and lives ruined is what they want politically… rather than as few as possible over time… they’re just not interested.
I can’t be arsed digging out the graphs but no doubt someone will. If VE Day had an impact we’d start to see it now.
See tireds last graph,☹️
I don’t think we’re on for another wave
Constant ripples, perhaps?
That last graph was reporting not excess. There were very few deaths registered on bank holiday Friday. I expect a slowing of the rate of decline and possible trending to low endemic. It’s actually hard to look at cases and deaths simultaneously due to the different sources and regionality. I have cases at LTLA level - 300 regions. Deaths are by nhs trust. And one then has to link the two :-(.
Bah!
I presume that M3 jam was earlier in the week, when Bournemouth was packed out.
The tweet seems to be from today. I would imagine a mass exodus to the coast today. The number of people who mention Cummings when justifying their behaviour is not insignificant
I know I’ve mentioned this before, but now I’ve seen a few doctors commenting on it online I think it has more legitimacy than just what I’ve heard from friends who work in coroners’ offices: many of the deaths attributed to COVID19 are at best pure guesses, at worst highly misleading.
Identifying the cause of death is not an exact science when there is no post mortem, but at one point nearly everyone who died in a care home setting was apparently being classed as COVID19 death.
It’s worth remembering this when looking at the data; they are somewhat misleading,
JP
Identifying the cause of death is not an exact science
I suppose that's where "excess deaths" comes in.
I expect a slowing of the rate of decline
It's already painfully slow - if it slows any more it'll be increasing again !!
but at one point nearly everyone who died in a care home setting was apparently being classed as COVID19 death
Not true. Point me to any source claiming that, it sounds made up to me. At “one point” (beginning of May) we were at 18000 excess deaths in care homes compared to the 8000 recorded as being with Coronavirus.
Do any of your somewhat Convienant sources have a reason for the excess deaths then that are multiples of 5 and 10 year averages for the months of April and may ?
Something is causing it. It's not natural selection
many of the deaths attributed to COVID19 are at best pure guesses,
Slurpy slurpy Kool-aid is the best.
Excess deaths btw as has been mentioned already
**** i forgot. It's 5g isn't it
Falls in the bath. Deadly. Especially in April. Don’t say I have not warned you.
what I’ve heard from friends who work in coroners’ offices: many of the deaths attributed to COVID19 are at best pure guesses, at worst highly misleading.
It's a fair assumption that many GPs are marking down Covid-19 as a contributory cause in CoD incorrectly as there is no post-mortem test being carried out. We know from this forum and elsewhere that many folk who think they have the symptoms come out negative in testing.
However, the whole point of the "excess deaths" figure is that it gives us an overall picture, taking account of these false-positives and all of the others who died untested. If you can't come up with another reason that excess deaths is much higher than normal then you have to conclude that Covid-19 is the cause.
JJP - out with his mates on the lash
Do you think Professor Van Tam might not be Bojo’s favourite scientist after today’s briefing?