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@TiRed - re your 6/7ths comment.... When will this phase be complete?
All through this I've heard rumours of the NHS preparing for Peak 2 in June and Peak 3 in November. Those plans look a bit inaccurate as of today.
Did you consider modelling these next peaks?
Anyone know what the different R numbers are for Scotland, Wales, England and NI ?
There now seems a huge difference in lockdown restrictions within the home nations.
Drakeford announcing there would be little lifting of restrictions based on the R number not decreasing..
Variations across England as well.
Such peaks are impossible to model, they are very strongly assumption-dependent - time to second peak, magnitude, degree of mixing after lockdown removed, all stochastic variables.
This peak will be over by July 1 based on current trends and simple log-linear extrapolation (and other methods). I'm interested in detecting evidence of further transmission at the lowest level possible (likely lower tier local authority). Prediction beyond 14 days is challenging and further peaks really just a guess.
If you do want me to guess, then I'll say that there won't be any significant subsequent peaks (>25% of current epidemic) due to behavioral changes, testing and quarantine of the elderly, and an understanding of how other countries have done better.
Thanks
If these R estimates are correct from Andy Burnham's Twitter, it beggars belief why lockdown is reducing significantly in England and some kids are are off back to school on Monday.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZIrqy9WkAAfuof?format=jpg&name=small
If these R estimates are correct from Andy Burnham’s Twitter, it beggars belief why lockdown is reducing significantly in England and some kids are are off back to school on Monday.
In many areas, the schools are acting based on local information, as you would expect. Take the PR pronouncements from number ten with a pinch of salt.
Oh my, I’m so tired of this virus and everything connected with it…
Not as tired as those who got it, including TiRed.
For those who are tired of this I got a startling reminder of how things can be so different if you lockdown at the right time.
I had a video Teams meeting with two Danish colleagues and they were sat shoulder to shoulder on the video screen, it freaked me out
Well this is great. Our three year old is increasingly missing her friends and getting sad about it; and now a few of the local houses have obivously given up lockdown as there are a dozen small kids playing with a paddling pool in the front garden a few doors down. She's now asking why they can play and she can't 🙁
Appreciate this is a very small problem on the grand scheme of things but its just so frustrating...
Our three year old is increasingly missing her friends and getting sad about it; and now a few of the local houses have obviously given up lockdown as there are a dozen small kids playing with a paddling pool in the front garden a few doors down. She’s now asking why they can play and she can’t
The question is what is the risk of her being able to go out and play with the other kids, vs the the longer term risks from becoming upset, isolated and insular causing?
My worry is that the secondary affects of lockdown will cause more long term issues than the virus itself.
LOL - that’s been the situation where I live since lockdown. Funny thing is, the parents whose kids have all been mingling are dead against them going back to school because of the risk...
I've not yet seen or heard of any extra panicky kids as a result of the crisis in our extended work and social circles.
Some of the parents though..... 🙄
Some perspective: Four children under 15 have died to date, none of nursery age. The prevalence in children is, however, the same as adults. Influenza is more dangerous to them (except we are out of the season now). The unanswered question is how much do they contribute to the overall force of infection, and how might they spread infection to their elderly relatives.
Indeed, your* kids are very very safe to mingle… the only risk is that they might lose family members and other adults** dear to them… they are not really at direct risk of harm themselves.
*if no underlying health conditions
**don’t forget the staff at nurseries and schools
anagallis_arvensis
Can you explain why you would think a school would have 90%+ having had covid?
Why wouldn't it?
They only need a single child to be carrying the virus and take it home then mingle with other parents/kids. Lots of families including friends at Jnr's suspect they had it as well as teachers and TA's... lots of kids mingling
We just had a photographer round who's doing school photo's in a cardboard box she takes round to each kids house (apparently disinfected between kids somehow) - OH wouldn't let me ask how so it remains a mystery.
We provided our own box (75cm cubed) and as far as I know the only ones who did but still had to sign the paper disclosure handed over on a clipboard... (OH signed and went and washed hands immediately). No attempt at sterilising the clipboard as she rushed off to do another lot of kids.
On a slightly different subject ... this guy spat at someone with the evident intention of making them sick. They later died. Even if their death was not caused by the spitting (and how can we be sure?) is it now OK for people to spit at others with the intention of injuring them? If someone throws a brick at my head, but it luckily misses, is that fine?
I thought spitting at someone was assault nowadays?
That's another bad number today. Just a smidgin below last week, well within the margin of random error for the underlying rate being same or worse. Another 2k positive tests too. My spidey senses are tingling. I think we are on the way up again.
ElShalimo
MemberI thought spitting at someone was assault nowadays?
Always was in Scotland.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1475148/DNA-kit-traps-teenager-who-spat-at-bus-driver.html
Even if their death was not caused by the spitting (and how can we be sure?) is it now OK for people to spit at others with the intention of injuring them? I
Spitting is assault. The Police/CPS do not pursue all assaults.
There's a genetic marker to trace how the virus is passed from one person to another, iirc, but surprised of the Police had checked this to rule him in or out as the source
Why wouldn’t it?
Oh so you guessed, thats fine, carry on. The UK best guesses are around 10% arent they, I see no reason why any school shouldnt be broadly similar.
And on a surprising development, MrsMC who has been a firm "we need to get back to normal sooner rather than later and just judge the risk" kind of girl, is suddenly looking at the numbers and thinking we may be rushing things now
anagallis_arvensis
Oh so you guessed, thats fine, carry on. The UK best guesses are around 10% arent they, I see no reason why any school shouldnt be broadly similar.
A national mean average is taken by adding up all the positive in a sample and then dividing by the number of records. Where does 10% come from? What was the sample and how was it selected?
Plenty of actual tests though where people have been in a similar situationb (just first google)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/27/cruise-ship-study-shows-80-per-cent-covid-19-cases-board-asymptomatic/
Cruise ship study shows that 80 per cent of Covid-19 cases on board were asymptomatic
Of 217 passengers and crew on board 128 tested positive for the coronavirus and of those 104 did not have symptoms
A national mean average is taken by adding up all the positive in a sample and then dividing by the number of records. Where does 10% come from? What was the sample and how was it selected?
Not by taking an average of positive tests.
Of 217 passengers and crew on board 128 tested positiv
Does this equate to 90%, looks like about 55 to me, not sure how cruise sips relate to schools, and also 217 passengers and crew? Must have been a small cruise ship.
may be rushing things now
We are rushing things…
But the good news is that, assuming you are a private sector worker, today’s announcements about the way furlough is to be tapered, and the dates support continues to, you and your employer can just hold off ‘till July. Do that. Or keep working from home for a bit longer, with the kids. And keep the Zoom socialising going just a few more weeks…
An interesting conversation with a relative this evening about testing. Apparently one of the neighbouring county hospitals has tested all their clerical staff. Can anyone say padded testing numbers?
anagallis_arvensis
Not by taking an average of positive tests.
I don't know where you got your 10% from but if it's only positive tests not a random representative sample then it's way worse as the government is only testing those who show symptoms...
Does this equate to 90%, looks like about 55 to me, not sure how cruise sips relate to schools, and also 217 passengers and crew? Must have been a small cruise ship.
It's just one test from a closed in space with no outside cross infection but hardly representative. I'm not paying for a Telegraph paywall but I'd hardly expect the passengers to be young and I'd expect they were isolated in cabins but we don't know if this is even representative of cruise ships... some have might have zero and others 90%... depending in the fiorst case if noone aboard carried the virus and secondly what measures were taken either enforced or voluntary on the ship.
Either way ... 90% or 55% is just a number. Lets say 55% then that is 55% of kids in that school or year or whatever we actually MEASURED rather than guessed that can return* if only the government could be arsed to test who has anti-bodies and who doesn't. **Gosh if they had it and didn't know we could test their parents as well.
The point is there are no representative tests being made or perhaps published in the UK.
Sandwich
An interesting conversation with a relative this evening about testing. Apparently one of the neighbouring county hospitals has tested all their clerical staff. Can anyone say padded testing numbers?
But what have they tested for?
There was a huge test push a few weeks ago of asymptomatic, not known to be infected NHS staff. Will have boosted numbers but was also to establish if well staff are Covid + and an infection risk to others - has huge implications for restarting non emergency work if staff are carrying asymptomatically as risk of infecting well uninfected patients...
ElShalimo
MemberThe stats on the deaths of elderly people and people with “pre-existing medical conditions” are very disturbing and it is compounded by the reaction from many people, one of “well they were going to die soon anyway”.
This simply isn’t true.
Though in the case of care home residents it might be. A study of 65-104 year olds in care homes and the community found the chance of death within a year was 26% for care home residents as against 3% in the community.
https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/42/2/209/27127
Yay, two world wars, one world cup and one pandemic
@irc - I'm not completely convinced. The other thing to bear in mind is that the majority of the deaths recorded are in hospitals.
assuming you are a private sector worker, today’s announcements about the way furlough is to be tapered, and the dates support continues to, you and your employer can just hold off ‘till July. Do that. Or keep working from home for a bit longer, with the kids. And keep the Zoom socialising going just a few more weeks.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Maybe this is the genius we don’t understand. We think we are being set free, yet commuters and workers are still at home...</span>
>Maybe this is the genius we don’t understand. We think we are being set free, yet commuters and workers are still at home…
But nothing they have said suggests we are "free"
How ever Dominic cummings and Bo Jo are doing a good job of displaying enough contempt for the order that people are acting as if they are "set free"
A question for you all.
We've been pretty much isolating at home as mrs_oab is vulnerable. We've ridden bikes and walked, away from the busy places and parts of the day to keep us all sane however.
I've suddenly the opportunity for something really important at work, an hour from home. It will mean being near around 4-6 adults (outside a school full of adults) and same of children, for probably a couple of hours. The work for me though would only be perhaps 30 minutes.
I'm suggesting to Mrs_oab I go but stay in the car until I have to do my bit.
She's not happy with the risk.
What thinks STW?
She’s not happy with the risk.
Does any other opinion matter?
What he says.
Does any other opinion matter?
Agreed. Even if you were seeking the advice of an expert, not us, her feelings matter more. I wouldn’t change anything before July in your position.
A fair point.
Hmmmm.
Does the IOW app work?
Its all gone very quiet on this.
Does the IOW app work?
According to my colleague, a resident of IOW, they've not even been asked to have the app...