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Thanks for the link.
Looking at the list of boroughs on a map there is a bit of an odd decision with Greenwich where I am and where my kid goes to primary school. As someone above said it seems to be all of kent, most of essex, most of london, but then bang in the centre of that greenwich and lewisham are told to stay open.
Greenwich tried to close the schools for a week before xmas and then got ordered to reopen them by the government, it looks to me like they are being punished for that now, I think we have similar and sometimes higher volumes of cases than neighbouring boroughs that have been told to close, and we share the main hospital with bexley who have been told to close. The hospital has declared some sort of incident over the last few days as its run into issues with oxygen.
That Sophie Walker Twitter series kind of misses the point that the reason that “women are being shown contempt”’is that a great deal of them (and men) have stuck two fingers up to the guidance and are now wingeing now that the numbers have gone up.
Our kids school is shut until the 18th and the whatsapp group is full of people bitching about it but I recognise the names - many of them have spent months sharing covid hoax stuff and of the ones that I’ve seen out and about they have clearly been repeatedly ignoring the rules on household mixing etc - not just for the last few weeks but for most of the 9 months.
Although I wouldn’t say it to anyone in person I’m unbelievably hacked off at now having to try and work with screaming toddlers in the house yet again. I lost my work at the start of the pandemic and it took months of no income and stress to find something else - to the point of literally feeling I was constantly on the edge of a breakdown for a 3 month period.
We had an isolation period just before Xmas care of a parent knowingly sending their kid to school with covid and the thought of more time working in the loft in the midst of a sea of chaos downstairs is again driving me to the absolute brink mentally - not least as we’ve done exactly what’s been asked right from the outset to the point that it’s resulted in behaviour issues in our eldest kid due to lack of time with the extended family and curtailed “normal” life.
Thanks for the thoughts on my situation, it seems like the right thing for her so will get done
That Sophie Walker Twitter series kind of misses the point that the reason that “women are being shown contempt”’is that a great deal of them (and men) have stuck two fingers up to the guidance and are now wingeing now that the numbers have gone up.
Umm... nope. We are in a bad situation in part because people have behaved irresponsibly, but as she says, the pathetic government response has put the burden of dealing with that situation disproportionately on women.
I hate the ****ing ambiguity in the guidelines. It says things like 'people should not travel for exercise.' - I want it to ****ing say 'you will be breaking the law and could be fined up to £? if you travel for exercise' They do it like that on purpose to appear like it's all law. It isn't. It also says you can travel in your local area but doesn't define local. Is it 2 miles, 10, 50? I mean wtf knows?
Surely, the vagueness is essential. For some people the next house is 2 miles… for others there are several supermarkets closer than that.
For some people the next house is 2 miles… for others there are several supermarkets closer than that.
Yet in Ireland, which is a much more rural society they are much more explicit in stating;
People will only be able to exercise within five kilometres of their home.
People will be allowed to travel outside their five kilometres for work, education or other essential purposes.
But obviously we can’t possibly impose clear rules because great British common sense.
I wrote a doomsday list.
I did the same back in March. Don't forget your online details, passwords etc.
Berate anyone who breaks the rules (but quietly do so themself in a way that suits them without mentioning it).
do leave off. 'i want to go on holiday' = stay at home you prick. 'i want to do the best for my elderly mother' = crack on mate. as demonstrated. appreciate you've been under house arrest, and thank you, but we're all trying to find our way through this the best we can.
Anyone seen any evidence on the new ‘highly transmissible‘ strain?
There was a lot of loose wording a few weeks back but little evidence to back it up. We know it exists but is it truly a new strain or just a variant? Is the evidence of transmissibility real or circumstantial (emerging from an area of low restriction and adherence rather than being truly more transmissible)
It seems like a given reported in the press with little to back it up?
I thought you didn't believe in R numbers @TiRed? 🙂
There is plenty of evidence for the new variant being more transmissible munkyboy, but I'm guessing you are just playing the contrarian troll rather than expressing genuine interest as a few seconds of googling would have answered your question.
I reckon once the death rate drops in a couple of months the govt will start to open things up regardless of the disease level. By the time the most vulnerable 2 or 3 tranches have been vaccinated there won't be enough fuel left in the system for a proper peak, certainly in deaths and possibly hospitalisations too (though I'm less certain about this, haven't really looked at how this varies with age etc). Basically, we'll be able to just take the rest of it on the chin. I know it's bad for a minority but brexit ****ed up a lot of peoples' lives too and the govt went ahead with that regardless.
Something to look forward too. Will you be able to get the vaccine privately?
i bloody hope so when availability allows because at the mo the under 50s don't get a look in AFAICT.
I thought you didn’t believe in R numbers @TiRed?
Found out! Well they serve a purpose for communication. I hope vaccination brings transmission down significantly to the point of seeing the epidemic shrinking.
As for the new strain. PHE have just published a case control study. I have to say I'm concerned. 1769 matched new and old variant cases. Old had 26 admissions with 10 deaths, new had 16 admissions and 12 deaths. The odds ratio for dying given admission to hospital with serious COVID disease is 4.8 times (P = 0.026), with a relative risk of two-fold. That's not good news - a big effect from a small sample. Give it until the second week of January and if deaths in London and SE have diverged from prediction (the null hypothesis), there will be evidence of the above odds ratio.
If it's more transmissible, with higher viral loads, I see no reason why it should not be more pathogenic too. But it is early days.
i bloody hope so when availability allows because at the mo the under 50s don’t get a look in AFAICT.
The first phase is to vaccinate the 9 levels you've seen in the news (50+). Plan is reportedly to then open up to everyone else with more than likely priorities again in that second phase i.e. certain workers being prioritised over scum etc.
good to know larry. where's this from?
Schools not opening here in MK its the u-turn everyone saw coming
But I don't get why some tier 4 areas they stay open
Does it really mean we're in tier 4.5?
Local WhatsApp school group in meltdown, I can't believe people didn't think this was going to happen!
The next phase – further reduction in hospitalisation and
targeted vaccination of those at high risk of exposure and/or
those delivering key public servicesAs the first phase of the programme is rolled out in the UK, additional
data will become available on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19
vaccines. These data will provide the basis for consideration of
vaccination in groups that are at lower risk of mortality from COVID-19.
The Committee is currently of the view that the key focus for the second
phase of vaccination could be on further preventing hospitalisation.
Vaccination of those at increased risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to
their occupation could also be a priority in the next phase. This could
include first responders, the military, those involved in the justice
system, teachers, transport workers, and public servants essential to the
10
pandemic response. Priority occupations for vaccination are considered
an issue of policy, rather than for JCVI to advise on. JCVI asks that the
Department of Health and Social Care consider occupational vaccination
in collaboration with other Government departments.
Not seen it documented anywhere, but with this virus it is just logic.
the country and the world cannot leave a massive reservoir of potential victims of this virus.
Even if the younger population don't die in the ratios of the elderly and those with comorbidities, there is still a substantial healthcare burden both as a result of acute health care needs and the potential longer term effects.
at that point it becomes a financial and economic decision too.
As ultimately is its far cheaper to bear the cost of vaccinating as many as possible against the limitations imposed by not
Plus when you assume that people will have issues travelling if they haven't had the vaccine (see yellow fever for an example) it is just highly unlikely they would stop with the vulnerable
Still trying to figure out if as an asthma sufferer I’ll get a dose of the vaccine
How about phoning your GP?
but with this virus it is just logic.
the country and the world cannot leave a massive reservoir of potential victims of this virus
Why not?
A cost benefit analysis will be undertaken as we progress through this, is it worth spending money on vaccinating those who are highly unlikely to suffer from the virus year on year?
We don't vaccinate everyone for the flu but people die in the thousands every year in the UK of pneumonia from it.
However it might be that vaccinating everyone is the best course of action (long covid etc), time will tell.
@Tired wasn’t the key thing from that paper
Preliminary results from the cohort study found no statistically significant difference in hospitalisation and 28-day case fatality between cases with the variant (VOC 201212/01) and wild-type comparator cases. There was also no significant difference in the likelihood of reinfection between variant cases and the comparator group.
Our elderly neighbour phoned the surgery to book an appointment for a covid jab and was told she was too young.
She is 92 and it's 95 and above here in East Devon.
For me it is the differential between the illness level induced by flu against that of covid.
If long covid is at the level suggested of 1:20 infected then that is a huge potential societal burden compared to the cost of a vaccine.
I agree though it is financial and also a lot will determine if long term protection is given by a vaccine or not. As vaccinating 40-50 million per year might make it challenging
We don’t vaccinate everyone for the flu but people die in the thousands every year in the UK of pneumonia from it.
US does. It’s always an economic decision
@bubs I was careful to state the odds ratio after admission. The rates in the paper Are for overall admissions 16/1769 vs 26/1769 and deaths 12/1769 vs 10/1769. Neither are significantly different as reported in the paper. But the odds ratio IF you are admitted is (12/4)/(10/16) = 4.8. And this is significant. It’s the conditioning that matters.
I've just seen an advert for Ryan air, book your spring and summer break now that the covid vaccine is here
Tagline..
Jab and go...
No seriously, I've not just made that up..
from that matched case study:
Variant cases were more likely to be part of a residential cluster(defined as all laboratory confirmed cases occurring at the same Unique Property Reference Number (UPRN)within 14 days of each other) compared to wild-type comparatorcases(63.5% vs 56.1%, Chi-Squared test p=0.00).
Or, as (AFAIK) nobody has said - when you isolate at home, that means keep away from the people you live with. Talking to people round here, almost nobody considers that
(and great news about the Ryan Air adverts IMO)
Bah - Mrs Pondo's mate has just checked in on Facebook to the Lakes, some distance from her Birmingham home. 🙁
How about phoning your GP?
Don't do that. Mine has put a banner on its website which pretty much says how pissed off they are with fielding endless calls about vaccine timings which are stopping other patients getting through.
I had the golden opportunity this week (had to phone up to get a course of steroids for an asthma flare-up) but managed not to pop the question. I was more worried he thought I was faking it to make sure I was in the 'severe' banding!
Anyone else’s hope for 2021 waining by the hour? I’ve managed to avoid news and the gov website for almost 2 weeks now. Stuff is filtering through and it’s just turning into a nightmare.
I had some physio today and been confirmed with Tendonitis in my knee, so I’m going to have to rest up for a few weeks. I really enjoy my local walks these days to clear my head but walking anymore than 500m is too painful now.
I hate the * ambiguity in the guidelines. It says things like ‘people should not travel for exercise.’ – I want it to * say ‘you will be breaking the law and could be fined up to £? if you travel for exercise’ They do it like that on purpose to appear like it’s all law. It isn’t. It also says you can travel in your local area but doesn’t define local. Is it 2 miles, 10, 50? I mean wtf knows?
I also hate this. I really don't understand why the opposition isn't calling them them out on it. Ministers have repeated appeared on TV and are either lying or haven't read the legislation when suggesting the police will be enforcing what is only guidance. I'll personally mainly stick to the law (and ignore guidance as I see fit), but what that is should be made clear from the guidance, without having to read the actual legislation to see what extras they've made up.
Anyone else’s hope for 2021 waining by the hour?
Honestly no.
When all this kicked off my best case scenario was minimal treatment options and absolutely no vaccines until a minimum of 18 months from March 2020. For all that this is a complete shit show, it’s nowhere near as bad as I first feared.
If anyone would have said to me by the end of 2020 we’d have multiple approved vaccines I’d have thought they’re delusional at best.
@TiRed, that is an impressively distorted analysis which shows a classic case of p-hacking.
There’s no reason to care particularly about chance of death *conditional* on admittance when the chance of admittance is so different. Death per case is basically the same and that’s what matters. Why would it be a bad thing if fewer moderately ill people (who are not going to die) were hospitalised?
BTW I can’t make sense of your numbers. Chance of death conditional on admittance are 12/16 and 10/26 which only differ by a ratio of about 2. Where did 4.8 come from?
If it’s more transmissible, with higher viral loads, I see no reason why it should not be more pathogenic too. But it is early days.
As in, it can replicate to a greater degree in the body than the previous variant before the immune system gets a grip on it?
Yes exactly that. The only bit that is unsure is that if a higher viral load does relate directly to disease burden and death.
Anyone else’s hope for 2021 waining by the hour?
Nope, I'm feeling hopeful by mid April we'll be in a much better place. Aye, there will be a new norm, but it won't be anything like the situation we find ourselves in now.
Heard of a guy locally who died in the Maldives over Xmas, and a couple that came up in same conversation being in Tenerife.
How the **** are people still getting to go abroad? Utter madness.
A theoretical question:
We've got three kids aged 7, 5 and 1. Should both me and my wife get a dose of covid-19 that lays us both low, what do we do about looking after the kids?
Heard of a guy locally who died in the Maldives over Xmas, and a couple that came up in same conversation being in Tenerife.
How the **** are people still getting to go abroad?
A local cafe owner has posted a pic of themselves in Bermuda/Barbados/ somewhere in the Carribbean.
It's a selfie with none other than Captain Sir Tom, who is also out there. I'm a bit conflicted at that one, I'll admit.
A theoretical question:
We’ve got three kids aged 7, 5 and 1. Should both me and my wife get a dose of covid-19 that lays us both low, what do we do about looking after the kids?
Obvs drive to Durham
So, Question ...
I'm in N. Yorkshire (was T2 now T3) and my work is in South Cumbria (was T2 now T4). OK to travel given that the work is outdoors and I might see a couple of walkers going past? Some days I see no-one.
Obvs drive to Durham
It's what any caring parent would do.
travel between areas where necessary for work is allowed
A theoretical question:
We’ve got three kids aged 7, 5 and 1. Should both me and my wife get a dose of covid-19 that lays us both low, what do we do about looking after the kids?
Exceptions to isolation can be made for childcare, you can pack them off to friends etc
I’m in N. Yorkshire (was T2 now T3) and my work is in South Cumbria (was T2 now T4). OK to travel given that the work is outdoors and I might see a couple of walkers going past? Some days I see no-one.
No problem whatsoever. It's work. Just don't jump up and kiss any passing walkers.
And wear a jumper, looks chilly out!
Just don’t jump up and kiss any passing walkers.
Don't worry - they aren't my type!
And wear a jumper, looks chilly out!
Hopefully it'll be a bit warmer in the next week or two, I'll be using the pick-axe to get the stones out of the ground otherwise!
It’s a selfie with none other than Captain Sir Tom, who is also out there
I guess that’s where all the money raised went then. 😉
Seriously, how the f did Adrian Chiles ever get a gig on national radio? His assessment of JVT words yesterday is like something I'd expect to hear from the local supermarket chat, not a national broadcaster.
Thicker than a Michelle McManus jobbie.
I guess that’s where all the money raised went then.
Apparently BA offered him a trip, it was on a list of things he'd like to do. And I guess at his age, you don't put these things off.
Didn't hear Adrian Chiles this morning, but thought JVT was excellent yesterday. Managed to subtly put the boot into the government and the Press.
How about phoning your GP?
I was thinking of emailing the surgery. Not only is it not clear if asthma sufferers are in scope of phase 6, but even if they are I want to make sure I'm included on the list as they missed me off the flu vaccine by mistake and I needed to be added on at last minute
I appreciate however they probably have better things to do than answer these types of queries but no idea where else to get a definitive answer from. Must be tons of asthma sufferers on here so may start a thread asking if they know anything.
Buffoon Johnson should have stood up yesterday, head held high and said, 'under No circumstances should people go out New Year's eve and be with anyone that isn't in their own household'. Maybe not those exact words as I'm not an articulate person.
I walked back from our local butcher this morning. Walking along a quiet route with my mask on, I hear voices behind me. There are 7 men in a gang aged about late 20's early 30's walking together closely, some with a beer can or two. I honestly and truly despair. They could of course be from the same household so I should give them the benefit of the doubt.
Someone mentioned the Ryan air advertisement - I too saw that out of the corner of my eye. Unbelievable.
chance of admittance is so different.
Actually they are not significantly different. Although one would want to see the covariate mix of those admitted to be sure of this.
You are confusing relative risk with odds ratio. When the sample is large, then they are very similar. When small, they can be very different. Odds ratio between treatments is ratio of number died over number lived. Hence (12/4)/(10/16) = 4.8. Relative risk is 12/10 as the denominator for the full populations (1769) is the same and cancel. Relative risk in the hospitalised is (12/16)/(10/26) = 1.95. It’s a big effect for such a small sample size. It might be explained by covariates and just chance.
But five fold is a big effect.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds_ratio
I was thinking of emailing the surgery. Not only is it not clear if asthma sufferers are in scope of phase 6, but even if they are I want to make sure I’m included on the list as they missed me off the flu vaccine by mistake and I needed to be added on at last minute
I appreciate however they probably have better things to do than answer these types of queries but no idea where else to get a definitive answer from. Must be tons of asthma sufferers on here so may start a thread asking if they know anything.
I'm sure an email would be fine - they just don't want the phone lines jammed up.
Here's the latest advice on priority groups:
Persons with underlying health conditions
There is good evidence that certain underlying health conditions increase the risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. When compared to persons without underlying health conditions, the absolute increased risk in those with underlying health conditions is considered generally to be lower than the increased risk in persons over the age of 65 years (with the exception of the clinically extremely vulnerable – see above). The committee’s advice is to offer vaccination to those aged 65 years and over followed by those in clinical risk groups aged 16 years and over. The main risk groups identified by the committee are set out below:chronic respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis and severe asthma
chronic heart disease (and vascular disease)
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease
chronic neurological disease including epilepsy
Down’s syndrome
severe and profound learning disability
diabetes
solid organ, bone marrow and stem cell transplant recipients
people with specific cancers
immunosuppression due to disease or treatment
asplenia and splenic dysfunction
morbid obesity
severe mental illness
Other groups at higher risk, including those who are in receipt of a carer’s allowance, or those who are the main carer of an elderly or disabled person whose welfare may be at risk if the carer falls ill, should also be offered vaccination alongside these groups.
Individuals within these risk groups who are clinically extremely vulnerable are discussed separately (see above). Further advice on risk groups, including clear definitions, are set out in the Green Book - Immunisation Against Infectious Disease.
The key thing for you, who, IIRC, has mild to moderate asthma, is that the approach is 'set out in the Green Book', which is the standard 'immunisation bible' for the NHS. And means that those groups considered sufficiently at risk to receive the flu jab should be included in phase 6. That's my reading of it, anyhow.
Thanks for that Martinhutch. Very useful post.
I'm not registered to a GP, will the NHS know my details?
Forgot to add a link to the Green Book - relevant sections would be for influenza vaccination.
I’m not registered to a GP, will the NHS know my details?
Currently, or ever?
Supposedly you will be contacted by the NHS, but that presumes your contact details are up to date. My advice? Try to register with a GP practice in your area.
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/gps/how-to-register-with-a-gp-surgery/
But @TiRed, the calculation is still just a pile of bollocks. According to your approach, the new disease would be considered less harmful if a few more of its mildly-ill victims had been sent unnecessarily to hospital to kick their heels for a few days. *Regardless of the total number who actually died*. It's an arbitrarily-selected bit of cherry-picking that can only mislead - the sort of thing that gives a bad name to statistical analysis. And indeed statistical analysts.
chronic respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis and severe asthma
That's the thing, asthma uk say that the guidance of 'severe asthma' on the jvci list you posted above is incorrect, as severe asthma would put you in priority group 4, and that any one with a steroid inhaler (indicating moderate to mild) would be in 6. I definitely don't have severe asthma, usually defined as requiring far stronger oral steroid medication.
https://twitter.com/asthmauk/status/1341347824999538688
The key thing for you, who, IIRC, has mild to moderate asthma, is that the approach is ‘set out in the Green Book’, which is the standard ‘immunisation bible’ for the NHS. And means that those groups considered sufficiently at risk to receive the flu jab should be included in phase 6. That’s my reading of it, anyhow.
The green book further confuses things tbh,as it indicates any one with a steroid inhaler gets a flu jab, however the guidance for coronavirus jab indicates you need to have been prescribed regular oral steroids to qualify for group 6.Yet the previous government guidance states anyone who has to take regular oral steroids (ie has severe asthma) should have been in the shielding group, and my understanding is if you were shielding you'd be in group 4. Unless I missed the bit in the green book that indicated groups considered sufficiently at risk to receive the flu jab should be included in phase 6? If i did can you share..ta
Basically tons of conflicting info out there. The nhs site itself states that non severe asthma is a risk factor, directly contradicting your post i assume taken The jvci guidance.
Edit..just saw the green book link. The covid vaccine guidance is chapter 14a
Yes, you're considered at risk, but not extremely vulnerable, so would be in phase 6, according to the thread you've posted from Asthma UK. If they've sought and received guidance on this specific issue, then that would seem to settle the question as far as you're concerned.
The list I posted earlier was the 'extremely vulnerable' categories.
If they’ve sought and received guidance on this specific issue, then that would seem to settle the question as far as you’re concerned.
Yep hopefully in group 6, but I'm assuming the gp will take their guidance from the green book, which is very specific about oral steroids. I've emailed my gp the asthma uk post asking for clarity.
Edit..
The list I posted earlier was the ‘extremely vulnerable’ categories.
Nope that's the group 6 categories I think.
The rest of this comment is deleted.
So I've been sending info about the safety of vaccines to a friend who is a care worker and might be offered the vaccine sooner than most as she mentioned she might wait as she's not sure. When i asked why she said 'she'd heard there might be fertility issues' she'd not read anything herself just listened to others at work talking about it.
I wonder if this is something to do with the Bill Gates thing?! Have there ever been any genuine issues with vaccines and fertility? I'm not annoyed with her personally as she is not very scientifically minded and is a very easily led, gentle soul.
I've not really looked into the whole Bill Gates thing myself as it seemed so out there but I actually met a Swiss couple the other day who were trying to explain it all to me and were totally adamant it is true. I must admit i tuned out and had had a few beers so can't really remember what they were saying but they are both in there 50's professional, intelligent people so i was rather taken aback as i imagined it was the preserve of disenfranchised Internet nutters not normal everyday people i might meet. It makes me start to doubt my own trust and belief in things at times when confronted with so many conflicting ideas. I think what keeps me relatively straight is that i studied the sciences at a level and then did a bsc at uni and so have learned how to assess what is credible or not but that combined with another friend sharing guff on Facebook that can be disproved with a quick bit of research has got me feeling worried for the world.
Now I've just gone on Facebook and the guff sharing friend has posted a pic of the slopes in Verbier. Just arrived from tier 4! How is that even possible when I thought that other countries weren't excepting uk holiday makers since this new strain?!
Edit friend is happier about the vaccine after reading the bits I've sent her 🤞
The £10 will barely touch the sides of the cost incurred by the vaccine program. GPs will lose income from dropping all the other public health stuff and the vaccination targets were high and will be a real challenge to meet and hence get paid
The way that GP practices are paid for all the work they do is bizarre, complicated, and arcane. They are essentially private contractors, and this kind of thing is far from unusual. It's not that they have to be incentivised to do something that should already be part of their job, it's just that they are paid for vaccinating people on a piecework basis anyway.
The £10 will barely touch the sides of the cost incurred by the vaccine program. GPs will lose income from dropping all the other public health stuff and the vaccination targets were high and will be a real challenge to meet and hence get paid
This too. They will most likely be losing more income by cancelling other paid activity.
From here https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-vaccine/ updated today.
<h2>Advice if you're of childbearing age, pregnant or breastfeeding</h2>
There’s no evidence the COVID-19 vaccine is unsafe if you’re pregnant or breastfeeding. But more evidence is needed before you can be routinely offered the vaccine.The JCVI has updated its advice to recommend you may be able to have the vaccine if you're:
-
pregnant and at high risk of serious complications of coronavirus
-
if you're breastfeeding
Speak to a healthcare professional before you have the vaccination. They will discuss the benefits and risks of the COVID-19 vaccine with you.
You do not need to avoid pregnancy after vaccination. The vaccine cannot give you or your baby COVID-19.
The GP payment will have to cover things like leasing a large facility capable of getting 500-1000 patients/day through safely
Plus staff overtime (admin staff etc), consumables etc
It won’t be going into GPs personal pockets I can assure you
What has happened to the 4million doses of the Oxford vaccine we had ready? Now they are saying we have 500k ready to go?
^ political numberwang at work
No cherry-picking - it's all about conditioning. If we switch to a vaccine like analogy and take a population of 3400 and give half treatment A and half treatment B and observed 42 events, what is the likelihood of a split 21-21 or in this case 26-16? If you are a Bayesian and want an informative prior (beta(2,2) for example), then the posterior will be beta(43,27) - how does that compare with 50-50? Well surprisingly, there is a 97% probability that the proportion is different from 50-50.
From that study, the old strain has a higher admission rate (1.6x) but lower mortality (0.83x). The odds ratio is just your chances should you find yourself in hospital and odds ratios that big are unusual. It's possible that some imbalance in patient characteristics explains the finding - for example region; are London hospitals (with new strain) overwhelmed compared to those with WT. But I'd be looking for something, because 12/16 deaths is notable but 10/26 is typical.
she’d heard there might be fertility issues
The vaccines have yet to complete reprotox studies. That's unsurprising because such studies require the dosing of pregnant rhesus monkeys, then monitoring the offspring (the animals are not euthenised either, they go into the breeding colony). These are some of the longest and most expensive studies. There has barely been enough time to run and report them. The precautionary principle means that there is no data. Normally new investigational medicines are not given to "women of childbearing potential" until the studies have read out. No conspiracy, just the timescale for drug development.
Of note, some vaccines for RSV are now being delivered to the pregnant mother with the explicit expectation of passive transfer of antibodies to the newborn. These vaccines will have undergone the above testing. There is a long history of administering vaccines to the pregnant, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Treatment must be based on benefit risk. The risk is not yet characterized, but pregnancy increases risk of severe COVID by about four times.
The GP payment will have to cover things like leasing a large facility capable of getting 500-1000 patients/day through safely
Plus staff overtime (admin staff etc), consumables etc
It won’t be going into GPs personal pockets I can assure you
Brewdog have offered use of their "facilities" for free. Premises, fridges, admin staff and all.
What has happened to the 4million doses of the Oxford vaccine we had ready?
Aiui the 4 million doses need batching up and sticking into those little vials (then tested and approved) before they get stuck into your arm, so 4 million sat in big barrels of vaccine, 500k in jab friendly packaging.
Ta - that makes sense. Id heard talk of a shortage of glass vials too...
I see in the news tonight the Nightingales are being ‘readied’, in part by HM Forces.
why do i get the feeling the current death rate vs being the christmas grinch was a political decision.... blood on their Blowjo's hands again.
Current death rate is from two weeks ago. Now look at cases in the past seven days... 🙁
Current death rate is from two weeks ago.
christmas isn't just the 25th, it's mid November onwards. They didn't want it to cramp their own style so now we pay the price in blood.
How much of this is down to Christmas mixing and how much down to the more contagious virus do we reckon?
I see in the news tonight the Nightingales are being ‘readied’, in part by HM Forces.
One would kinda hope that all elements of the armed forces which are not deployed on live military ops had been allocated to COVID already.