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Because there's no point getting vaccinated if you've already got antibodies.
1. Having antibodies is no guarantee of immunity.
2. The test(s) have a specificity of about 99%. This means that you could take the test and get a false confidence that you haven't had Covid-19 (one in every hundred people will be told they've had it incorrectly). It follows that you could then catch it, and require unnecessary medical care, or infect others.
I have no time for people who hold irrational fears over vaccines.
Either you're trolling me which is highly likely as you often do, Flaperon, or you're taking this to nth degree which I'm most definitely not. I'm being pragmatic.
One in a hundred for the test. Then there's the combination of symptoms and the contacts.
If you have antibodies you've fought it off once and are likely to fight it off again.
There a difference between irrational fears and risk evaluation. I've got as complete a vacciantion card as you can get - I worked with sewage and was vaccinated against all sorts of tropical diseases. I'm not anti-vaccine, you'll also note "I'd consider it just as a civic gesture" as already stated.
My personal evaluation is that if two people who share the same bed test positive for antibodies there is no point getting vaccinated. That's highly rational.
often
I think I've pissed you off exactly once before, apologised for it, but call it "often" if you want.
I’m not anti-vaccine, you’ll also note “I’d consider it just as a civic gesture” as already stated.
Yet you'd repeatedly placed conditions on having a vaccine. I'm not trolling, just pointing out the obvious hypocrisy. The obvious caveat to this, of course, is if it's proven that the vaccine has a negative effect in people who've already had Covid-19.
My memory must be better than yours.
I'm vaccinated against hepatitis B, and so is junior. Are you and your kids, Flaperon (as you're getting personal I assume Im allowed to too). About a thousand deaths a year in France yet the vaccination rate is only about 40% for the young population most affected.
There are lots of vaccines and people make choices, judgements. I see resistance to a Covid vaccine if ever there is one, that's an intellectual judgement based on the take up of other vaccines and young people's attitudes to this virus. They're rightly pissed off that their jobs, businesses, careers and leisure have been ****ed up to save the rich old codgers on fat pensions who don't have to go outside if they don't want to. Junior's generation rushing to get vaccinated, I don't see it. If 60% aren't vaccinated against Hepatitis B that kills a thousand or so of them why would they bother with a vaccine against something that has only killed a handful of fit healthy young people. The ferquency with which they get themselves AIDs tested says that protection against viruses isn't their priority.
I’m not trolling, just pointing out the obvious hypocrisy.
That's trolling and provocation. Hypocrisy is saying one thing and doing another. I'm saying one thing and intend to do it. Have serological tests and base whether or not to get vaccinated (if ever there's a vaccine) on the result (two results in fact).
Hypocrisy is saying one thing and doing another. I’m saying one thing and intend to do it.
No, you've spent several posts saying you're not anti-vaccination, then announced that you're not having this one unless you're forced to.
They’re rightly pissed off that their jobs, businesses, careers and leisure have been **** up to save the rich old codgers on fat pensions who don’t have to go outside if they don’t want to.
Wait, weren't we discussing vaccinations?
then announced that you’re not having this one unless you’re forced to.
False, at no point have I said that or anything close. I have never mentioned obligation or force. Check out laws for where I live and you'll find that isn't even an issue.
You've been misquoting me, making false accusations about hyupocrisy and now you're putting words in my mouth. The thing is, Flaperon, that you're not fooling anyone because people can reead back and see what I've really written.
Pin the R tail on the donkey is somewhere between 0.7 and 1, schools are supposedly opening up a bit more next Monday...
Yeah, makes perfect sense to open up all retail in England two weeks later!
Definitely not distraction news to get Cummings out of the limelight.
I hope non puppet leaders of Scotland and Wales denounce this shops plan timetable.
To be fair, reading back I think I've got the wrong end of the stick. But I still don't understand why you brought the elderly into the argument.
from the bbc, how much more not serious could people take it?
After Prime Minister Boris Johnson defended his chief aide, Dominic Cummings', decision to travel to County Durham during lockdown, there were fears members of the public would take the government's coronavirus message less seriously
bournemouth today, from the same news story as that quote above
The old telephoto trick, I’d like to see that same beach on an overhead shot.
The A30 through Cornwall today was deserted at 9am on a hot bank holiday Monday. In normal times it would have been nose to tail.
^ not a disaster fapper then?
Toby Young has graciously added my comment to his lockdown sceptics blog. Whilst I disagree with his politics, I believe scientists should be sceptical. And that they should be called to explain with clarity their position.
I’ve always tried to show from the data, the gravity of the situation, and that intervention was a necessity. Sometimes this is lost with the headline deaths, awful coding, past poor performance (despite 90 years of vaccination success) and so on. The problems we have now are due to inaction earlier. Those are the rules. There is ample evidence that lockdown has had a measurable effect on cases and indeed deaths.
Anyway, my comment is here. Will see if it draws comment
But I still don’t understand why you brought the elderly into the argument.
Because I was making a prediction about uptake of vaccination if ever a vaccine becomes available. The basis for that prediction is that young people won't get vaccinated for an illness they don't feel personally threatened by just to protect the oldies and obese. If only 40% get vaccinated against Hepatitis B, why would they get vaccinated against Covid 19 which is objectively less of a threat to them - even at current new case rates?
Current new infections are running at about 300 a day in France and Germany, and given the testing/tracing sytems in place I suspect most cases are bing picked up. That's not much over 100 000 cases a year. In junior's age group you might expect .2% deaths, I'm not going to attempt to do the sums on how many of the 100 000 would be in his age group and the number of deaths but plug any numbers you want into a calculator and the result won't even get into three figures.
The young generation is being royally shat upon in this crisis. Junior's two sources of income dried up instantly (DJ and ski instructor) and as he doesn't have years of accounts for either he's entitled to zero government help. That's not an issue because I'll give him enough to live on but many young people have parents who can't or won't help. They're rightly feeling hard done by as they see their futures being sacrificed on the alter of saving the old and obese*. Watch this space, either things go back to normal soon or a generation based social conflict kicks off like in 68.
The lockdown has done its job and got things back to manageable proportions. IMO responsibility should now be given back to people to look after themselves. You think you're vulnerable then wear a mask, insist on impecable hygiene in your home, avoid busy confined spaces, get a doctor's note for work, lose weight... . But it's time to let 20 year olds make a living, do whatever people do in discos these days or sit around on a beach chatting.
* 47% of people entering ICU with Covid 19 at Lille hospital are clinically obese:
Parmi les dernières qui soient disponibles, une étude menée par les équipes du CHRU de Lille montre que plus de 47 % des patients infectés entrant en réanimation sont en situation d’obésité et que la forme sévère (à savoir un IMC supérieur à 35) augmente significativement le risque d’être placé sous respiration mécanique invasive, indépendamment de l’âge, de l’hypertension artérielle et du diabète.
bleak story from Italy's medics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52784120
If when all this is done ours feel the same then we'll have another national disgrace on our hands that no amount of pan banging will fix.
47% of people entering ICU with Covid 19 at Lille hospital are clinically obese
Not surprising, it's a bit taboo, the risk that no one wants to talk about, the extra risk to the obese.
Possibly cos it's not something that can be tackled in the very short term, but if I was a big un, this would be the motivation I need to lose weight.
I do fear that most of the population here will go back to their usual drunken, abusive selves towards medical staff - anyone who's been to A&E on a weekend will know what I mean.
The government will definitely forget everything when the next pay discussions come up, that's pretty much guaranteed!
I wonder how long it will be for the surge of new riders, runners and walkers to return to their habit of driving everywhere while drinking their high sugar coffee and stopping at their favourite fast food drive-thru? Oh, hang on. There's already massive queues at Burger King, KFC and Starbucks near me of cars on 'essential journeys'.
I despair at the stupidity of some. We're not even out of the lockdown here in Wales yet and people are reverting to their old ways.
You think you’re vulnerable then wear a mask
That makes no sense. You can’t just take “individual responsibility” to protect yourself, as it is down to the behaviour of others whether the virus spreads. You can wear a mask as part of helping stop the spread… you need others to wear a mask to help stop you being infected.
An FFP2 mask stops about 92% of airborne virus (I posted the source weeks ago). Wear one and you'll reduce your chances of gtting more than the minimum infective dose by that amount. Even a surgical mask improves matters for the wearer but I can't remember the percentage for those.
The idea that masks don't protect teh wearer was propaganda bollocks at a time when there were no masks to be had and the few there were the government needed to protect key workers - because they do protect.
You can’t just use “individual responsibility” to avoid contact with a virus… you just sound like a right wing troll with your “responsibility should now be given back to people to look after themselves” line. It needs to be controlled at a community level… be that mask use, social distancing measures, or uptake of vaccine… none of these work at the level of the individual, they are all about a community response.
How many people are going to get vaccinated even if there’s a vaccine?
I think in the case of COVID, many more folk than normal will probably want the vaccine. No real evidence other than the responses I hear when I speak with GPs who're getting these sorts of calls from patients, which TBF is pretty unusual.
The current uptake on the annual flu vaccine is pretty low despite a significant risk each year.
In the UK, GPs get part of their funding through activities such as vaccinations, and they're targeted groups (vulnerable groups such as the disabled, sick, elderly, v young) so most folk who "need" a dose, get it.
So you make masks obligatory on public transport, in shops, in confined working environments, schools, anywhere people are obliged to go. I'm not suggezsting a free for all, you seem to have forgotten what I've been posting from about page 70 of this thread. What I am saying is that in places that people choose to go for leisure then let 'em within say 100km. If 20 roadies want to ride together I don't have a problem with that, they're adults, they know the risks and the potentail cost to society, they know there are a limited number of health workers.
It's time to limit strict obligations to places people are obliged to go. There hasn't been a new case here for weeks (Béarn), no new case in the department 64 for at least a week, regionally (Grande Aquitaine) there were 4 new cases over the weekend. I think that at this stage it's time to give responsibility back to individuals and see how it goes.
You are suggesting that the young and strong should be allowed to party all night, even if that means it’s less safe for the elderly to even pop out for bread. I would suggest that the careful prioritising of opening up essentials and keeping the numbers meeting up at once low is proving to be the right approach where that is what has been going on... including where you are. Here, I’d like other people to be able to start to see their GP again, rather than being able to go to a gig in a packed pub myself.
Today's projection based on excess deaths. A slight bump from the VE day bank holiday (most likely due to registrations, but the trend is well-captured by hospital deaths. Back to baseline by Week 24 (mid-June) with 70k excess deaths is the prediction. We shall see how the unlocking proceeds.
That graph looks like good progress, we should unlock now so we can get on with our lives!
Thanks BillMC for that Slavoj Zizek link. I think he nailed it when he said:
'Stay alert means it's your fault if you get it'
It’s great progress. I assume the second part of your statement was a joke, or you misunderstand how the progress has been gained.
When would you start lifting restrictions? Looks like we never overwhelmed the NHS, Mission accomplished?
I've always said gone by July - Week 26. That's been the consistent prediction for over two months. Of course for schools, how much education is possible in the last two weeks of term? - my predictions about opening schools in September was really a pragmatic one. The current proposal is aimed more at child care and economics. One might expect a slight extension of the tail as we open up - possibly a second wave, but more likely just a tail.
I've also looked at per capita mortality this week, and that shows that if you are 45+, then your odds of dying were doubled at peak (OK they are normally fairly low). If you are over 85, they were trebled. And despite the media noise, if you are aged 15-45, there was a 50% increased chance of dying at peak. Children under 15 have no excess mortality.
When would you start lifting restrictions?
July.
They’d already have been lifted by now, if we had been into “lockdown” earlier.
So, on track and trace, because you know, we will have a world beating operation in a few days time...
S Korea I think are probably the benchmark here. They have a population of 50 mil (ish). Their peak daily cases was about 1000. That's 20 cases per million head per day. Perhaps also important they have only 11k cases reported total. Their actual functioning track and trace (which will possibly also turn out to be genuinely world beating) managed to stay on top of that. The latest distancing regs news I can find is early may, so I don't know what their current state of play is on that front.
Here we have currently got a daily new case numbers that are still around 2500 per day, with the knowingly under-reported case total of 250k. We're at 40 cases per million head per day. Our track and trace isn't currently a thing (is it?) and has no prior experience, unlike S Korea.
Hmm.
So far the progress has been gained in several ways depending on the country and region.
The biggest gain in lives saved in this region have come from very high hygiene standards in ephads (old peoples homes) because those alone account for about 40% of severe cases. There is no reason to ease those measures, there is little or no economic or social loss as they are operating as before but to new standards. A reduction in physical contact is a small price for a large gain.
Another big gain has come people limiting contact, both by enforced confinement and new habits where people still meet in work places, schools. Those places have with a few notable exceptions operated remarkably well without becoming clusters - the exceptions are abatoirs where close working, low temperatures and communal living have been favourable conditons for the virus. Those gains can be extended to other contexts.
As for kids and young people, they've been back to mixing for a couple of weeks now (many were meeting before that), there hasn't been a second wave so far or even a hint of one. They have to sit a couple of metres from each other in class wearing a mask and then out of the school gates off come the masks and they're pretty much back to normal - but not quite. There's just a bit more distance, no more handshakes or bises, not sharing bottles or joints. They're playing the game, I think they'll do it just as well on a café terrace as in the park (better because they're being served and spaces are better defined). Time to let the café owner make some money selling them stuff before the debt burden becomes insurmountable and pay the staff their full wage.
You're accusing me of being a right-wing something or other, Kelvin. How do you qualify your own somewhat extreme authoritarian views?
Be pragmatic and trust people, the vast majority have shown themselves to be trustworthy.
I've gone back to life as before with a few changes that should make all the difference based on all the stuff I've read over the past five months and keep R below 1. I wear a mask in indoor places with people I don't know. I've given up shaking hands and bises, and keep about a metre from people I do know. I keep my hands in my pockets and touch as little as possible (I'll be getting one of those plastic do-it-all things for opening doors and pressing buttons). The people around me do the same, I reckon we'll be fine.
Edukator
* 47% of people entering ICU with Covid 19 at Lille hospital are clinically obese:
What percentage of the population of Lille over 18 are obese?
Apparently a figure from MA US say's 98.5% of those in ICU have underlying pre-conditions. Sounds hopeful until you ask "what is an underlying symptom" ... "anything medical"... "so obesity?" "yes" .. but 50% of MA over 18's are obese. Add in what my medical insurer say's "Have you taken an antibiotic in the last 2 yrs"... do you suffer from any of the next 3 pages of diseases...
I asked my friend who re-posted this what percentage of MA population have no underlying symptoms that would be classed as "pre-existing conditions" .. he is married to a rather eminent medical doctor and is currently living in Boston so I'd think if anyone would know he would.
July.
They’d already have been lifted by now, if we had been into “lockdown” earlier.
THIS times a lot! Sadly people seem unable to grasp that the choices we made early on have disproportional effects on choices available at the end. I've had some reasonable debate on this on lockdownsceptics, where people had not grasped that the lockdown influences the rate of decline, not just the rate of increase. Even Toby Young has grasped this fact and that we needed to do something. But it was our delay then, that has led to our (prolonged) delay now.
The epidemic trajectory is one of these
NOT a ball.
air vent
That graph looks like good progress, we should unlock now so we can get on with our lives!
And killing off the surviving grannies?
Isnt that a sharp up tick in all cause deaths, reasons?
17% of French are obese, stevextc. That's somewhat less than 47%.
Perhaps Crikey could give us his assessment of the profile of cases. He hasn't posted for a while. My local doc was blunt, "if you weighed 100kg you'd have something to worry about, you don't". Much has been made of the BAME factor by Britain's characteristically racist media with lots of photos in the Birmingham Evening mail - ignoring the skin colour the striking thing was that none of the victims was even close to their ideal BMI.
Rather than pointing at BAME they'd perform more of a public service if they highlighted the link with excess fat. Even the comorbities that are often quoted are illnesses linked with being overweight/ poor diet - heart disease and type 2 diabetes.
And killing off the surviving grannies?
The grannies can continue to look after themselves and confine as long as they feel the need. The ones close to me will with the help of neighbours and friends.
AA - it was VE day delay in registrations due to the Bank Holiday. The model goes through the midpoint. See if you can spot August Bank Holiday further along.
That is a very positive graph.
In wales it seems, according to their graphs, that number of new cases per day has somewhat stablised rather than maintaining a downward trend; but then that is also matched by more testing. Is there a standard way of disentangling the two beyond just a percentage of tests positive?
Hospital deaths are the one that will track the epidemic and adjust for testing acquisition bias. Cases may be flat because one finds more with increased testing. But people dying in hospital from confirmed infection is likely to be the truth - patients don't go to hospital with a positive test, they go with symptoms. Excess deaths in Wales are trending the same as everywhere else and the same as that plot for England and Wales.
TiRed
excess deaths -
I guess... we are far enough along the wave for the data to now be the more useful indicator?
and, I'd assume the slower rate of fall means the three week lag of excess death figures is less of an issue?
A further assumption, when we unlock bit by bit, we still have to watch the admissions and positive tests to spot when things get a bit spiky?
Worldometer has us on >4000 new cases reported in the last 24 hours. Had to go back to 8th May for last time that happened.