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Other Coronavirus cause CNS complications too.
Witty and Valance are still on the missing list for tonight's press conference
Apologies if done, but I don't think this had been mentioned:
While Hancock shouts about 100k+ tests per day ( which actually add up to about 1/3 that number of people tested)
2000 daily cases still. Have we flattened the curve or are we entering the washboard section?
2000 daily cases still. Have we flattened the curve or are we entering the washboard section?
Until they start to publish the number of total results again it’s hard to say. Before it was around 4% of the tests, now it’s anyone’s guess if it’s good news or not...
Was out for a ride in the hills today and came back along the sea front.
Prom was mobbed and beach packed. Cafes and Ice cream shops all open even someone eating chips in this heat. Some attempts at distancing mostly by people walking in the road.
I am hopeless at predictions so if I say prepare for a second wave at least it wont happen.
If we can stagger along at the current infection rate I’ll be pretty happy, as my local borough Rother had 3 new cases last week. Population @100k.
inkster
Member
2000 daily cases still. Have we flattened the curve or are we entering the washboard section?
Our trust had approx 10% increase over the weekend. I don't know if that or anything similar has been the case at other trusts
Run rate...2000 infections 250 dead per day... washboard if you like?
Real question is whats the "acceptable" run rate? 90,000 per annum deaths?
Whats a tragedy and whats a statistic?
Big questions...
Another load of bullshit or a convenient distraction from Hancock
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1265719286200438786?s=19
That’s not steady-state due to the lag of deaths. I’d say 1000 cases per day and perhaps 10-30 deaths would be an equilibrium. Proportionately more cases will be found by contact tracing compared to hospital presentations, so the fatality rate will fall compared with now.
Anyone else been 'scared straight' by covid to lose a few pounds?
I was probably about 5 kg above my fighting weight so have been dieting the last 3 and a bit weeks. Plan to do another 3 weeks. On about 1500 to 1800 kcals a day plus ride for 1 hr medium pace 6 days a week. Really feeling it now, get that lightheaded feeling and hard to concentrate, but can literally see the fat leaving me.
Well, if it doesn’t go to plan, she will go down with the ship.
Anyone else been ‘scared straight’ by covid to lose a few pounds?
Lost a pound a week through lock down, so over half a stone down. Another stone to go. Need another 14 weeks of lockdown then....
I think we'll be lucky to get under 100 daily deaths (consistently) in the next month.
Indeed. I was stating what I thing endemic looks like. It won’t be soon.
Anyone else been ‘scared straight’ by covid to lose a few pounds?
Yep. Was working the first 6 weeks of lockdown but the drop-off in workload meant I was doing a lot less and eating a bit more so my weight went up slightly over that time. I needed to lose 4-5kg before, that then went up to 7-8kg now. Have been furloughed for 2 weeks now and have done a lot of miles on the bike plus cut down on treats, easy to do when the fast-food places are shut and any urge to just pop into the shops for some snacks is suppressed by the 'Only if Essential' rule. Managed to stop any further gains the last week so June is going to be all about getting lots of quality miles in and cutting out the snacks. One last blow-out tomorrow as it's shopping day then straight into it.
A haircut would be an easy 200g lost for a start!!
Between the Cummings farce & the inevitable untrustworthiness if those running the app
Ill be amazed if it's downloaded in umbers high enough to be useful , unless they force you to or make it a condition of using public transport/ company rules etc
Tha app is toast, it's just a question of getting numbers down so that the traditional, local, feet on the ground testing that they're trying to build can begin to be effective, ergo we have got to get through the washboard section first before we can begin to go forward with any strategy.
Then we can begin to deal with the breaking bumps as they occur locally.
Dido hardly went down with the Talk Talk ship.... she actually charges to tell people what a crap job she did.
Draining the swamp.... yawn
We are finding it increasingly difficult, and we have tried to take this as seriously as we could, but the cracks are starting to appear.
My OH shielded herself and the boy about a week before lockdown officially started, so it's been about 11 weeks now. I've been WFH and now back in the office with restrictions in place, but not everyone takes it seriously or is fully able to. Masks and goggles and lots of sanitiser available.
2 year old is desperately bored and desperate to see other people and have contact with grandparents, family and other children. Getting hard to keep him away apart from avoiding socialising all together - which isn't great mentally.
Judging by those I have spoken to, many seem to be in the same position. People are becoming more nonchalant about it, especially seeing the government mess up and confuse everything they do - there is no trust.
Without a real plan to come out of lockdown, without fixes in place for public transport, without a working tracing system, without a logical bubbling of households, without any firm instruction on masks - without these things the GP are losing faith and the lockdown will become impossible to continue. Add into this the sentiment over Cummings and I don't think this will last much longer, irrespective of R0...which is obviously worrying...
I'd agree the app is dead, I also suspect manual contact tracing is dead in the water too. I'm generally calm but I was Outraged from County Durham yesterday as Matt Hancock spelt out the policy expectations for what it is our 'civic duty' to do, which happen to be directly at odds with driving to said Durham before a jolly to Barny.
If I'm incensed by their behaviour, I imagine a good many people will tell anyone who calls them up to contact trace to shove it.
Lost a pound a week through lock down, so over half a stone down. Another stone to go. Need another 14 weeks of lockdown then….
Interesting. I lost a Stone. Why, do you think, you lost weight?
I originally thought losing the commute would be an issue. But what’s actually happened is I’ve fallen properly in love with cycling again. As none of it is utility cycling, it’s all for “fun”! It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out if we get to some further lockdown easing. The Ochils are not far away but currently just out of reach, I’m quite looking forward to that and I’m rebuilding the Broken Road to suit the riding with some new shiny bits, might even use suspension forks.
I think the other part is I’m not rushing out the door not taking any lunch with me. So no Cafe lunches or whatever other crap I’d buy along the way including Lattes etc. I’m quite often, having fresh salad or cooked lunches now.
So you know, apart from being ill for 2 months it’s proving to be quite healthy!
If I’m incensed by their behaviour, I imagine a good many people will tell anyone who calls them up to contact trace to shove it.
That's the scary part.
I certainly wont sit around on my backside for 14 days with no symptoms (as their process flow indicated), if told to isolate I'll be booking a test after a few days to let the virus start to shed rather than sitting around not knowing.
It's not the best way to get peoples buy-in they should suggest doing a test after X days for all of the identified people, "We know you're self employed and we've stopped paying you furlough now as you went back to work, but we need you to drop everything for 2 weeks" .. "But I have no symptoms and I need the money" ... "Yeah dont care, sit inside and wait"
so the fatality rate will fall compared with now.
I did some simple sums (I don't do models anymore 😉 ) and was surprised at how little efficient difference tracing programmes made to the ratio of reported deaths and cases on the worldometers list. I thought Germany and South Korea which have been much more active on tracing would have a much lower ratio, not much lower in fact. In theory a country with perfect tracing would have a ratio between 50 and 200:1 if the death rate for the virus is between .5 and 2%.
France is up to 46 detected clusters since the end of confinement, with the majority connected to collective accomodation such as young workers accomodation centres, according to Figaro. The harder you look the more you find apparently, without tracing it's quite possible to have a cluster in a place filled with young people and never know about it because no-one ever feels ill enough to ring le 15.
I suspect contact tracing is worthwhile only in the early days. After that it's stable door stuff...
Ft article is free to read & fascinating
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1265885480144470023?s=19
I suspect contact tracing is worthwhile only in the early days. After that it’s stable door stuff…
Also late days.
Cheers for posting that @kimbers
Should go in the Short Cummings thread too really. The truth twisters will struggle to spin that, and it’s not going away.
I certainly wont sit around on my backside for 14 days with no symptoms (as their process flow indicated), if told to isolate I’ll be booking a test after a few days to let the virus start to shed rather than sitting around not knowing
The only problem with this is you don't know if you're the originator of the infection for the person who triggered your isolation, in which case if you're going to be symptomatic it's going to come through pretty quickly, or if you were infected by that person, in which case it could take 10 or so days to come through. Of course, you may not have it at all, in which case it sucks to be you (or not, depending how you look at it)
an antibody test, which is the one widely available, isn't going to help you very much.
I won't be downloading the app - we're due to move house in 3 weeks and I'll be buggered if I'm going to jeopardise that - I'll just maintain my social distancing. I'm also moving to somewhere with no mobile signal - how's it going to work there?
piemonster, what are you talking about? Everyone else is looking at our successes. Time to put it behind us and move on. Big Ben has to Bong for Brexit before Boris Bus blah blah blah. Oh look, a squirrel.
The app functions using short range bluetooth transmissions/receptions so should work without a mobile phone signal
As far as I can tell there are no plans to use it anywhere!
Serco running the track & trace?
The same serco that were fined £23m for fraud last time they had a government contract to track people
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/03/serco-fined-229m-over-electronic-tagging-scandal
I don't see this going well on any level
Interesting. I lost a Stone. Why, do you think, you lost weight?
Lack of café stops, lack of impulse food buys. My mileage is about the same.
But mainly boredom at work. Before I had a laptop to WFH I wasn't snacking much. Now I'm back doing the job I hate for an organisation I hate, the snacks are increasing again, although I'm more aware and can stop it or snack on fruit.
17% of French are obese, stevextc. That’s somewhat less than 47%.
In comparing like for like:
1/ France isn't Lille... so we should really be looking at % obese in Lille not France overall which I suspect is a little higher.
2/ Is 17% the over 18's? Over 40's etc.
Much has been made of the BAME factor by Britain’s characteristically racist media with lots of photos in the Birmingham Evening mail – ignoring the skin colour the striking thing was that none of the victims was even close to their ideal BMI.
Lots of bollox because that's the media and special interest groups.
Rather than pointing at BAME they’d perform more of a public service if they highlighted the link with excess fat. Even the comorbities that are often quoted are illnesses linked with being overweight/ poor diet – heart disease and type 2 diabetes.
There is no such haplotype as "BAME".... I'd also point out that other arguments such as economic reasons don't explain why "BAME" doctors are also dying faster. We can argue if doctors, nurses etc. are actually paid well for what they do but we can't argue a practicing doctor is on the breadline and I don't recall those doctors who died who's photo's I saw being obese. Anbd to ask the next Q what did they die of? Was it pneumonia or was it an autoimmune response or ???
We also might want to look at diet... again not useful classifying as BAME ... what about vegans? (just speculating?)
they’d perform more of a public service if they highlighted the link with excess fat
Amongst other things.... for example what percentage are on what medication?
Many obese people might be on statins (for example).... but so might many non obese. Is the increased risk due to the actual weight, the high triglycerides or the medication or some combination???
Both Kay Burley and Adam Boulton have asked about Witty and Valance this morning, both times the question was deflected (Hancock and Caroline Johnson), something's definitely afoot
Edit Look at the state of Hancock, he's laughing because he knows he's truly ****ed
https://twitter.com/errongordon/status/1265930143815684098?s=19
it is almost safe to say that he's only just a fuse for the real power in the government. Things get too hot, get rid of the fuse and put in another person.
Judging by those I have spoken to, many seem to be in the same position. People are becoming more nonchalant about it, especially seeing the government mess up and confuse everything they do – there is no trust.
It's certainly starting to fall apart here in Spain, at least round where I live. There's noticeably more traffic, groups of people out on bikes, people pushing (or basically ignoring) the 10am cut off for exercise, etc. I'm not particularly surprised, we've been in lockdown for 75 days now, and the fear is starting to fade.
it is almost safe to say that he’s only just a fuse for the real power in the government. Things get too hot, get rid of the fuse and put in another person.
If you mean Hancock, then you are probably right, he’s a sponge for the criticism, he may well be expendable, lose his job, sit on the back benches for a year, and then come back in a lower profile role. If you mean Cummings… no, he’s not going anywhere ‘till after he’s had his play after the transition period is over.