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Close the schools all those little viral carriers will out and about instead of being in a limited area. Add to the biggest employer could end up having a lot off work to look after their kids at a time when they’re most needed.
Why do do many people on here with zero qualifications or experience relative to the issue think that they know what’s best, or believe that they have some sort of magical ability to predict the future?
Mostly because this is just a discussion forum, they whole point of it is to just to chat shit about stuff.
Jeez FTSE down 10% is probably expected - Bitcoin down over 50% in a week, that’s going to hurt investors!
Holy shit.
189 people died in Italy today from Coronavirus.
1,016 deaths now with 15,113 cases diagnosed...
Is it just me or are these numbers trending towards far, far worse than anything anyone has come up with so far - even the more pessimistic ones?
Close the schools all those little viral carriers will out and about instead of being in a limited area.
Sneezing on me?
Add to the biggest employer could end up having a lot off work to look after their kids at a time when they’re most needed.
That lot signed up to look after ill people teachers didnt. I have to look after my old asthmatic mum, why should my job put her at a bigger risk?
That lot signed up to look after ill people teachers didnt. I have to look after my old asthmatic mum, why should my job put her at a bigger risk?
They can’t look after the sick people like your mum if they’re at home looking after their kids who aren’t unwell, just in case they sneeze at school.
Surely 1,000+ plus deaths in Italy cannot all be of people with underlying health issues?
I’m getting a bit of a sick feeling.
Is it just me or are these numbers trending towards far, far worse than anything anyone has come up with so far – even the more pessimistic ones?
About 6% death rate? Must be a **** tonne of undiagnosed cases
They can’t look after the sick people like your mum if they’re at home looking after their kids who aren’t unwell, just in case they sneeze at school.
Well they might have less to look after if the government acted?
Must be a **** tonne of undiagnosed cases
You would think so.
What kind of mutability does your typical Coronavirus show?
Italy has a Top heavy elderly population
I don't think I've ever looked at something the French (gov) have done and thought "that's a good idea".
If they are sneezing on you, you'll be fine. It's just a cold. See "symptoms".
If they are off school, a lot will be being looked after by elderly grandparents. Or roaming round like kids are prone to do.
They are gambling on this being the way to delay the worst of it.
I don’t think I’ve ever looked at something the French (gov) have done and thought “that’s a good idea”.
But but how will drs and nurses get to work?
Well they might have less to look after if the government acted?
It has.
If they are off school, a lot will be being looked after by elderly grandparents
Secondary age kids can cope at home alone you'd imagine.
Surely 1,000+ plus deaths in Italy cannot all be of people with underlying health issues?
We don't really know how many people were actually infected. If it's true that most people only get mild symptoms, then those who get tested and diagnosed would only represent 50% of cases or even less, who knows?
My mate is being sent a test kit to use at home, he's in isolation currently with a cough. Being able to easily test anyone with mild symptoms would be a massive help in figuring out what's going on and what to do, IMO.
Verdicts of the experts on the UK Government's coronavirus measures:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/verdicts-of-experts-on-governments-new-coronavirus-measures
Worth a read.
The curves and the numbers point to something very alarming and certainly hint at more than 1% mortality rate.
Italy has 1,016 deaths from a little over 15,000 confirmed cases. Ignoring the fact that it takes a few days to die, that would surely mean that for a 1% mortality rate, they are only picking up about 15% of cases. If you take time lag from infection into account the % drops even lower. Even if 50% of people never knew they had it, the mortality feels well in excess of 1%. I cannot recall anyone stating that more than 50% of people show no symptoms at all.
Has Italy stopped testing or something?
Am I losing the plot here, or is this going to be much worse than we thought up until now?
A 2% mortality rate on a 60% infection rate in this country is more than 700,000 deaths.
Could really do with a beer with the old man about now.
If I didn’t have a persistent sore throat and cough that is.
I hear that, my only two direct relatives are my dad and nan, both very high risk with significant underlying health conditions ... I dare not visit my nan who lives 45 mins away, and my dad lives in Spain.
I'm not too overly concerned for myself but I have to assume I'm already a carrier and it'll be phone /Internet only communications with them for the time being.
but the experts have tried to explain their reasoning
Most expert opinion I have read (epidemiologists and the like) has been at odds with the questionable approach of this government. The government seem to be listening to people willing to bet on untested ideas on how we might develop immunity in the population naturally (we may well not) and using social modelling rather than epidemic modelling.
Is it just me or are these numbers trending towards far, far worse than anything anyone has come up with so far – even the more pessimistic ones?
Current research in China has indicated that a significant number of deaths are due to the patient’s immune system going into overdrive, what’s known as a cytokine storm, rather than directly due to C19, a syndrome that can be treated if recognised quickly enough:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176783/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-china-treatment-cytokine-storm-syndrome
On the subject of school closures, in Norway the way they are doing it is that all kids and students are home for at least the next two weeks. If you work in an essential service and you have kids too young to look after themselves then daycare is provided.
Everyone is being encouraged not to palm the kids off on the grandparents for obvious reasons but pretty much everyone who can is working from home now.
Bars, restaurants, gyms etc have all been closed so many others are off work anyway.
It'll be interesting to see the rate of spread in Norway compared to the UK if the UK decides to stick with its current course.
On another note, my Italian girlfriend is starting to get messages from home about people she knows who have died. It's really starting to hit home now.
I cannot recall anyone stating that more than 50% of people show no symptoms at all.
You don't have to show no symptoms at all, just nothing serious. I've had a bit of a virus since coming back from Italy, my wife did as well, but they determined we were probably ok. We didn't get tested though, so how do we know we didn't have the disease and just show mild symptoms? Loads of people have general colds etc at this time of year don't they?
I cannot recall anyone stating that more than 50% of people show no symptoms at all.
80% show no or very mild cold like symptoms.
I read 80% had no or mild symptoms. Not ‘cold like’ though, just not requiring any expert treatment or hospitalisation. The symptoms aren’t ‘cold like’, and ‘mild’ doesn’t mean a few sniffles, it just means bed rest at home is enough to cope with it.
Just viewed Johnson’s press conference held earlier and “Jesus Christ” he looked genuinely haunted and worried when mentioning the many deaths of family members, I guess he’s been privy to potential mortality rates over the next few months/years that are truly shocking. This is not an argument for this thread but surely the idea of “getting Brexit done” should be put on hold for now
Reading this it sounds like the containment phase was a bit half assed! She's living with flatmates, she's got it, yet the boyfriend was only told to self isolate when the results were confirmed!!
The one positive bit of news today is that they think up to 10000 folks have it already..if thats true then in reality if we only have 20 people in icu, plus half again that have died, the lethality of it suddenly looks far less than we fear it may be..
That's grasping at straws for a positive I suppose but gives us all a little hope.
Am I losing the plot here, or is this going to be much worse than we thought up until now?
My personal view is that it's worse than standard flu which kills loads of already susceptible people, but less worse than Captain Trips.
There's so many variables and so many different and sometimes conflicting methods of analysis flying around in the news and general media it's difficult to say.
We've probably all been exposed to it already, as passive carriers, to some extent the barn door was opened long ago, relatively speaking.
It's here.
As others have said, it's the elderly and those with pre existing health issues who are most at risk if they catch it from people saying 'it's just a bit of a cold' and are largely asymptomatic aside from a sniffle or a bit of 'man flu'.
The “existing health conditions” is a line put out by the media to reduce fear. Yes, all know that mortality increases when diseases are complicated by other co-morbidity.
What they don’t tel you on the news is that “existing health conditions” doesn’t have to be anything too serious. Hypertension doubles your (age adjusted) covid mortality. Diabetes trebles it. Obesity increases it.
It’s scary. If current trends continue, we’re all going to know people who will die.
I'm wondering how much local customs affect transmission. I went for a drink last night with a mate, I didn't touch him at all. If we'd been from certain parts of Asia or Africa, I'd have shaken his hand. If we'd been Italian we might've hugged or French we might've kissed. When I was working in Italy everyone shook hands with the rest of the office when they came to work in the morning. British people rarely if ever touch each other. IIRC it was the same in southern Germany, and someone up there was wondering why it spread in Italy and not Germany.
Anyone watchin bbcqt? That John Ashton coming across as a massive bellend.
I’m now wondering if you’re a Russian bot molgrips. The UK isn’t like that. Especially when going for a drink.
No one watches bbcqt in 2020. Can you fill us in?
Sorry to stop the arguments, if I get the virus I’m going to try and sit it out at home. Lots of water, should I be trying any special breathing techniques to keep my lungs as healthy as an be.
What they don’t tel you on the news is that “existing health conditions” doesn’t have to be anything too serious. Hypertension doubles your (age adjusted) covid mortality. Diabetes trebles it. Obesity increases it.
It's all getting a bit daily mail here tbh. Average age of death in italy up until last week was 81. Not sure what it is now.
Pretty much all the UK deaths so far have been attributed to folks with significant health issues and have been in and out of hospital recently. They didn't just have slightly high blood pressure.
I'm sure some healthy folks will die, but I've seen no evidence to suggest that it's anything more than a tiny percentage. 1 in 250 under 50s in China.. I can wager that more than 1 in 250 under 50s have significant health issues already. And that's 1 in 250 of the cases they have detected. Even if they only detect 1/2 the cases, that's a 1 in 500 risk of dying.
I'm not playing down seriousness of it, I'm genuinely very concerned for my parents, and I think we should be doing far more to encourage social distancing. But let's keep some sense of perspective here...if you are under 60 and in good health the odds are massively in your favour.
somafunk
SubscriberJust viewed Johnson’s press conference held earlier and “Jesus Christ” he looked genuinely haunted and worried when mentioning the many deaths of family members,
Of course he is, he's got 73 kids to worry about
Belgium had just gone down the Norway route. Everything closed if at all possible. Schools from next week. Non essential shops closed at weekends. Clubs, bars, restos closed. No social events private or public. Spent the day shifting stuff out to the cloud and working out how who absolutely needs to be in.
My wife's cousin posted some photos from their local supermarket in Minnesota. Things were fairly normal then a few cases prompted panic which escalated - their shelves are properly stripped. I mean, not just bog roll and soap raided - entire empty aisles.
Northwind - johnson has 73 kids?
Surely an under-statement?
7.3 kids
Anyway, get ready for your losses* - or we all start acting and don’t wait for Johnson to tell us how to slow down the spread.
[* that’s summing up Johnson’s own press conference… “many more families will lose loved ones before their time”… ]
I don't think BJ has ever suffered an actual unmitigated career disaster. By his terms. I don't mean the usual stuff he does that people laugh off due to the "showmanship". I mean a disaster that can't be dismissed with a new catch phrase and that has the potential to end his political career forever.
I think that genuinely scares the hell out of him. On this occasion I hope that luck follows him as this gambit concerns far more than his ego.
Anyway, this is all going a bit ot so I'll shut up.
Kelvin, yes - enough of the jesting.
There appears to be a significant disconnect between approaches and analyses from UK, US and other countries.
Epidemiology and virology are miles beyond my comfort zone but, in the absence of any consensus about the most effective approach, we have no choice other than accept what the UK gov inc PHE are saying.
Proferring views on a chat forum is an irrelevance - and that applies to this post.
What *we* don't know about covid-19 massively outweighs what we do know - based on the science.
At the most basic - and most important - level, I hope this improves the basic standard of hygiene in the UK.
Quick comment on QT tonight - john ashton is a cheery soul....
we have no choice other than accept what the UK gov inc PHE are saying
…and ignore what the gov of other effected countries, and other health experts, are saying.
What if…. it continues to mutate until we are all killed to death?
A permanent ban of football should cure it.
You miss the point I was making - disconnect between UK and other affected countries in terms of analysis and approach.
If you're a UK resident, you have no choice other than to comply with UK gov/PHE; personal views are now irrelevant.
Few, if any, posters to this thread have 'expert' knowledge of public health or epidemiology or virology so we're just blathering about something we don't really understand.
Who knows who is right - public health specialists in UK or US or France or Italy etc?
One thing is for certain, any of those experts know so much more than anyone posting here.
Hmmm... Interesting chart there.
If you’re a UK resident, you have no choice other than to comply with UK gov/PHE; personal views are now irrelevant.
Utter rubbish. It seems clear the UK is following the US in a passive approach when the rest of the world are taking massive proactive action. We can ignore that though and take our own action. With the absence of leadership there's no other option.
Ok..... I had my wobble yesterday - the realization of quite how serious this was. Not panic, just legitimate worry about what was to come.
It's inevitable that more serious containment measures are coming in the next week (or sooner)...... very much following the model of other EU countries. This has been on the cards for weeks - having watched responses from the asian countries.
I get why BJ hasn't implemented these steps already - but I can't understand why old-people's homes haven't been locked-down etc, and more serious steps for those with underlying health issues haven't been introduced. As somebody has said previously - there are a great number of intermediate steps between "stay at home if you are experiencing symptoms" and complete lockdown of the entire population. I thought he was going to go there: "elderly or sick people shouldn't...." but ended with a wierdly specific (and IMO completely insufficient) ".... go on cruise ships".
My primary concern is for elderly (70+) relatives - one set are broadly healthy, the other are not. I've looked at the data regarding the relative impact of comorbidities - and it's provided some answers, but I'm no less worried - I'm just worried, but now somewhat informed.
The country is being played.
Boris knows how serious this is.
They are not in anyway trying to mitigate the virus because ill people cant riot.
They are trying to contain the panic for as long as they can to give them time to put measures in place to contain us.
Even Jeremy Hunt has gone on record saying he is concerned about how the government is handling this "national emergency"...
I don't like the guy one bit but still.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51865915
On a side note I bet Dom Cum is absolutely loving this epidemic. I doubt he can sleep for the excitement he's feeling. Want to bet he's been reading various journals (and is now a self proclaimed medical expert) and is no doubt gaming various scenarios of deaths vs eventual costs etc.
He must believe he has been delivered into government almost by divine intervention for just this crisis.😳
Spoke to my father yesterday, he’s 76, high BP and he and my wicked stepmother are jetting off to Egypt for 2 weeks of sun tomorrow. Apparently Egypt are not to affected by corona virus! I did point out they are a second/third world country with a similar medical system and being run by a military dictatorship would you trust any official figures?
But he’s insisting on going so I’m hoping his holiday won’t get extended for viral reasons☹️ Or become permanent ☹️☹️☹️
The people in my town got it in Egypt. 4 cases so far in a town of 26k and all same family.
Verdicts of the experts on the UK Government’s coronavirus measures:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/verdicts-of-experts-on-governments-new-coronavirus-measuresWorth a read.
To summarise,
Spoke to my mum on the phone and she is typically carrying on as normal. We'll, I'm not going to change what I do and not go out anywhere, she proclaimed
86 years old and is still living n the blitz
I won't touch anything... Till I pointed out she touched the trolly in the supermarket, everything she bought was handled multiple times by n m w staff, and the keypad on the cc machine would have been crawling with bugs
To top it off she said my sister popped round for coffee, lovely, she works in a South London school with 900 jeuvinille diliquents. Brilliant. Good work sis.
Mums off to church for a nice group lunch today, I can't not go she stated.
At least the roads are noticeably quite already.
My bet is 1 more week of schools open then shut down for an extended Easter break, we shall see.
If you’re a UK resident, you have no choice other than to comply with UK gov/PHE; personal views are now irrelevant.
Utter rubbish. It seems clear the UK is following the US in a passive approach when the rest of the world are taking massive proactive action. We can ignore that though and take our own action. With the absence of leadership there’s no other option.
Guy on Newsnight last night was saying that there is a theory that leaving the implementation of these measures as late as possible is a valid tactic. The risk as he sees is it that unless it works, then the Gov will be criticised for not doing it sooner / learning the lessons of the other countries. If we do that same as everyone else then it's easy to pass off whatever happens as 'the inevitable outcome' rather than the result of our action / inaction.
It's a gamble, and it's brave in that sense. Of course if it does turn out to be right then the credit will be taken by Boris and co, rather than the massed ranks of virologists, medics and epidemiologists in the background (who the public have had enough of anyway)
That's my most charitable position. I can easily be swayed to 'clueless, shitting themselves, ineffective......etc.'
That’s my most charitable position. I can easily be swayed to ‘clueless, shitting themselves, ineffective……etc.’
I think it's a mix of both. They know it'll be bad. What they want to avoid is having any cracks appear that can be linked back to a decade of Tory austerity. If they go into lockdown now, nothing will cope.
If a virus breaks out big time, nothing will cope bit it can all be blamed on exceptional circumstances.
They're treading a very fine line of trying to show the Government in control, working for the country's interests while not showing how much they've wrecked the place in the last decade.
To top it off she said my sister popped round for coffee, lovely, she works in a South London school with 900 jeuvinille diliquents. Brilliant. Good work sis.
At work (with a couple of potential cases after return from travel and various others who they had contact with in self-isolation pending results)
We're being told that transmission is close contact, ie: breathing in exhaled virus particles from breath, sneezes, etc. That includes potential of course for someone to get it on their hands, put it on a surface, someone else pick it up and then put their hands in their nose or mouth....
But we're being told not to panic about this because if we are all not touching our faces and washing hands regularly then that transmission route is effectively closed.
So while I'm not planning to visit my elderly mum as a precaution, if I needed to then I'd keep a distance, wash hands properly when I get there, etc. and minimise contact and feel relatively happy with that.
A behavioural science approach does have a trade mark Dom Cum hallmark to it.
Disturbing but not unexpected satellite images of Iran today.
No one expects the corvid isolation!
Find the 5,000 to 10,000 undiagnosed cases interesting. This would mean there are clusters of people with virus like symptoms who may not have been tested.
For people who have gone through the isolation, without a test, the question is then manflu or virus. You're just not going to know if you're going to go back into it again. Atleast it incentivises keeping up the biosecurity.
I think we are ten to fourteen days too late in getting the biosecurity right. Updated the OAP biosecurity for the zombie apocalypse plan - Nail the Basics, Step it Up and now Knuckle Down.
My bet is 1 more week of schools open then shut down for an extended Easter break, we shall see.
That certainly seems to be the pragmatic view of the (admittedly non medical expert) education community in my area at least.
The Trust I work for deffo seems to be preparing for that given the tasks we have been asked to do as of yesterday.
It’s a gamble, and it’s brave in that sense.
Easy to be brave with other people's lives.
That’s my most charitable position. I can easily be swayed to ‘clueless, shitting themselves, ineffective……etc.’
I'm already there. Joris lurches from hour to hour wondering how best he can put on a veneer of competence. Government by "let's just get to the weekend then we can have a few beers".
The bloke in charge of the Cheltenham Festival just popped the ball neatly into Joris's lap when asked repeatedly whether he personally found it surprising they were allowed to hold an event with 60,000 people standing shoulder to shoulder.
He went as far as to say that it is 'what the government want to happen'.
Bluster and bullshit can't contain pandemics.
As much as I think they're a bunch of self-serving ****ers I actually think the government is being smart here. Not only that but they're also doing it in the knowledge it could backfire badly. If in the next 2-4 weeks we have a mass outbreak and lots of deaths and they shut the country down anyway they'll get absolutely savaged by the media for not taking action sooner. If it turns out they're right and the big peak is several months away I'm not actually sure they'll be able to claim a victory. The economy will still be badly damaged and they won't be able to prove it is less damaged than it would have been if they'd enforced more stringent measures earlier so I don't think they'll make much political capital from this decision.
So I'm mostly just surprised by it really, they could have just gone all out with very stringent measures, safe in the knowledge they're never going to get blamed for over-reacting as long as people are dying and other countries are taking stringent measures as well. They would also have a free pass for any economic downturn as a result (whether it's Covid or actually more Brexit related).
I feel I'm missing the underlying self-serving angle here. I also don't see it is incompetence causing them to fail to act - it would be much simpler/mindless to just follow suit with what other countries are doing and they're not doing that.
The big concern is them giving up on testing suspect cases in the community.
How do we (and they) know their strategy is working.
We do live on an island. As long as other countries close their borders, we get the effect without the bother of having a policy.
Closing schools seems valid; as long as parents are still working, Grandparents may get the childcare burden, and they are surely a higher risk group.
I do find it odd that a bad cold can cause so much bother. It's not the zombie apocalypse, most will shrug it off with lemsip.
On a side note I bet Dom Cum is absolutely loving this epidemic. I doubt he can sleep for the excitement he’s feeling. Want to bet he’s been reading various journals (and is now a self proclaimed medical expert) and is no doubt gaming various scenarios of deaths vs eventual costs etc.
I'm less charitable. If he is gaming scenarios I wouldn't mind betting some involve how the public response shows willingness to knuckle under to draconian measures given a big enough crisis and how this could be manipulated in future.
He is such a machiavellian, scheming little turd that I cannot credit him with anything other than the advancement of himself and his masters' agendas.
I do find it odd that a bad cold can cause so much bother. It’s not the zombie apocalypse, most will shrug it off with lemsip.
Ok boomer
Holy mother. Some of you guys have gone full fat conspiracy nutters.
Despite BoJo and Doms obvious shortcomings not everything they think, say or do are evil. Have you read Aesops fable about the boy, the donkey and the father? He had you in mind.
It's very, very complicated. All the choices are shit. You shut everything down yet by June it's still rife AND perhaps you have a collapsed economy and societal meltdown. The chart above over greatly simplifies each countries response as well.
Anyone else with offspring whose anxiety levels are going through the roof due to this virus?
The big concern is them giving up on testing suspect cases in the community.
How do we (and they) know their strategy is working.
And it is also a good way for them to hide the death rate when the nhs is overwhelmed
Despite BoJo and Doms obvious shortcomings not everything they think, say or do are evil. Have you read Aesops fable about the boy, the donkey and the father? He had you in mind.
Lie repeatedly, manipulate, cynically game and disdainfully weaponise people's worst instincts for your own gain?
Then expect trust?
There are many fables that back that position too. Fables schmables, picking one that backs up your particular point at a specific point in time is a piece of piss. So what?
Anyone else with offspring whose anxiety levels are going through the roof due to this virus?
Yes. My 11 year old daughter is not hugely affected, but my 8 year old son is very anxious. He has started turning off media that mention it and leaving rooms where it is mentioned. I can calm him down fairly easily in the moment, but it just comes back again later. Talking him through the numbers and the likelihood of it affecting healthy kids only works to a certain extent.
Cinnamon girl - yes, 1 15yo girl with a sniffly cold and very emotional.
But also an 11yo boy who knows better than all the scientists and doesn’t give a sh#t about using tissues/washing his hands.
They are both cold/sneezy rather than a cough, and absolutely no temperature, so I’m fairly comfortable with them.
The bloke in charge of the Cheltenham Festival just popped the ball neatly into Joris’s lap when asked repeatedly whether he personally found it surprising they were allowed to hold an event with 60,000 people standing shoulder to shoulder
And can you tell me in what way this is different to a normal day on the high street, tube, railway station, bus station, shopping centre, etc?
Do you think those should be shut down also?
(Tube, bus, trains all more dangerous as they are in a confined space)
Anyone else with offspring whose anxiety levels are going through the roof due to this virus?
Sorry this won't really be of any help.
I guess the advice that's coming out is all biosecurity rather than how to deal with the psychological side?
It's like what do you say when you have to go into isolation. Which looking at the figures on possible infection rates most of us are going to have to do at some point.
There is going to be a general need for national happy place? Trying to escape the coverage or just generally tune it out. Looks like all those cat videos might have a purpose! Might have to seek out the tractor trumps thread.
Holy mother. Some of you guys have gone full fat conspiracy nutters
Yep, it’s gone full on “**** Boris” and getting close to the infamous Brexit thread and is almost at the point of becoming no use to anybody wishing to discuss, learn or share Coronavirus details.
it amazes me that even in a full on pandemic where selfishness has been criticised within this very thread that people have use other peoples potential plight as a platform for their politics.
He has started turning off media that mention it and leaving rooms where it is mentioned
Smart lad, doesn't get that from you.