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Is that it? The great pearl of wisdom these people have come up with to keep us safe…thats pretty much the best they have.. ?
No, there’s lots more but you know it just doesn’t sound as dramatic and scary as you’re claim.
Lets hope we look back at this in a couple of months and go, see we were right, all a big bunch of over reacting.
There's no win on this. If it turns out to be relatively minor, the Government will get it in the neck for crashing the economy, over-reacting etc etc. You see it occasionally with Y2K bug stuff saying that it was all a nonsense, nothing happened etc - nothing happened becasue a LOT of people behind the scenes were working their arses off to make sure nothing happened and they (more or less) pulled it off!
If it turns out to be actually really rather major then we're all ****ed anyway. Even if they go into full-on lockdown now, there's no way in hell the social and emergency services can cope - my guess is that the Government is thinking exactly the same and rather than panic everyone more than they already are, it's a case of hiding as much as they can and blustering over the cracks.
And at the end of the year Brexit kicks in and we're totally utterly screwed - especially with regards to European Medicines Agency, access to drugs, testing protocols, import/export and EU funds to help recover from a disaster.
My 2p is he’s taking a gamble. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that closing schools would “do more hard than good” I can’t imagine why that would be the case.
I thought this was alluded to in the press conference. If you close the schools then what do people do with their kids? They send them to the grandparents, who in turn are then much more likely to come into contact with the virus and are also most at risk.
Why do a lot of people on this thread believe that they and some internet bloggers know better than the medical advisors. They aren’t hiding anything - they said it is likely there are 5-10k cases in all likelihood. South Korea brought it under control without resorting to mass restrictions on people. To a certain extent people are starting to self isolate anyway.
If you don’t like the governments advice then go stock up on bog roll and pasta and sit in your home for the next 6 weeks. There is nothing stopping you making your own decisions. None of the stuff the government will do in the next weeks is out of individuals control anyway.
I agree with kryton - a lot of politically motivated bluster and no trust in the medical experts who have access to a lot more data and information than we do.
a lot of politically motivated bluster and no trust in the medical experts who have access to a lot more data and information than we do.
I'll ask again what do our experts see differently from irish or danish ones?
Hubei went from 1000s of new daily cases to dozens in a few weeks. South Korea brought it under control within a couple of weeks. Jury is still out on Italy and Iran as not enough time has passed yet.
But how long can they sustain the mitigation measures they have put in place? This is the point I think. There is no immunity, the same amount of the population will get this. You don't want your health service stretched to the point that the death rate goes up (Italy), but if you flatten the curve too much, the mitigation becomes unsustainable.
Save the lock-down for the peak was the message I took away from today.
Could really do with a beer with the old man about now.
If I didn’t have a persistent sore throat and cough that is.
Part of the problem.is that the government just spent the last 3 years telling us that experts are not to be trusted
So now half the population don't trust experts & the other half just assume that everything Johnson & co says is a lie.
That's populism for ya !
Maybe the same as the South Korean ones did?
I can understand the logic of not closing schools...you cause massive disruption, for what? When Ireland's schools reopen in April, you can guarantee there'll be far more cases in the wild in Ireland than there are now, so what have they achieved?
Thing is, this isn’t a subjective thing like politics where you can argue round and round until you can prove you were right all along, even when you are wrong. On this one you are going to be proved emphatically right or (more likely) wrong in fairly short order.
My betting on this is that you are wrong. We are going to end up in the same place Italy is now in 9-14 days. There is no reason to suppose otherwise. You either go draconian early or you ride it out. It is now too late to do anything other than ride it out.
With the long incubation period and the high transmitability (is that even a word) the only thing that can realistically slow the spread significantly is personal hygiene and distancing.
Mind you, I reckon there is a higher chance of me pegging it from a rage-induced coronary trying to get rid of the ads on this site that seem to have adopted a cross in the top right hand corner as meaning “Yes, yes, I would love to be directed to a site selling me a naff Mason’s car” rather than “Get your intrusive shit out of my face”.
Anyway, I think a combination of arrogance, laziness and disdain is what the U.K. response to Coronavirus will be remembered for.
It was all just too much bother and it was too embarrassing to admit we just didn’t have the will or the facilities to deal with it early and decisively.
No, there’s lots more but you know it just doesn’t sound as dramatic and scary as you’re claim.
This.
I had a very, very long chat with our Infection Control department yesterday, for various reasons.
They seem to think the current guidelines are sensible, which is good enough for me.
I've also been to one of the testing stations and would be happy to work there again.
Lots of ordinary 'flu about atm as well, which isn't helping.
Why do a lot of people on this thread believe that they and some internet bloggers know better than the medical advisors. They aren’t hiding anything – they said it is likely there are 5-10k cases in all likelihood. South Korea brought it under control without resorting to mass restrictions on people.
The UK strategy is very different to Korea. Korea have tested 200K people and meticulously traced contacts. Their cases have been dropping for over a week and they might get away with 10K cases.
Our strategy is to let it go through the whole population and they aren’t interested in testing non hospital cases now. They will let it infect 10’s Millions of people in the next 6 month.
When Ireland’s schools reopen in April, you can guarantee there’ll be far more cases in the wild in Ireland than there are now, so what have they achieved?
Delay?
Whay do the irish not see it as you do?
I’ll ask again what do our experts see differently from irish or danish ones?
I would like an answer to this too.
Even if they go into full-on lockdown now, there’s no way in hell the social and emergency services can cope – my guess is that the Government is thinking exactly the same and rather than panic everyone more than they already are, it’s a case of hiding as much as they can and blustering over the cracks.
This is basically where I am at.
The NHS gets ****ed over when there are a few icy pavements. Population of 65m with 60% getting the virus and at least 5% of them needing care that cannot be administered at home? That’s nearly 2 million people in a period of time that is likely less than six months. Anyone been to an average city hospital recently? Not a ****ing chance this can be satisfactorily treated in the NHS.
What wasn't stated in johnson's presser earlier is that having an STW P gives immunity.
I wonder what's going to happen in those EU countries with large migrant makeshift camps...
Our strategy is to let it go through the whole population and they aren’t interested in testing non hospital cases now.
If that is the strategy, and it would appear it is, then it's going to backfire massively when the deaths start accumulating and people start coming into contact with those either directly or by knowing others who have lost family members. They will very quickly come to the conclusion that they've been abandoned to fend for themselves. And if the death rate here increases above other countries there will be hell to pay.
All French schools, nurseries and universities shut from Monday till necessary.
All medicine students in last year and recently retired asked to go and help.
Public transport remain open but people encouraged to work from home.
Government will pay for people to stay at home without loosing their job. Especially employed and self employed.
Taxes due in March delayed for as long as possible.
Whay do the irish not see it as you do?
Look I don’t care what the other countries are doing AA you’re still going to school tomorrow, now get to your room.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities? How many extra resources are available if you start to reach out to those. My wife for example works for a hospice mainly providing palliative care so has a modest number of beds, nurses etc. I assume there’s hundreds of places up and down the country that could be enlisted if needed?
Dunno if this has been covered but im curious to know why on earth our Gov and Health Advisers think herd immunity is the best way to go about this
The crazy thing is other experts are saying you might not get herd immunity with this.
Some Coronavirus can be caught again and again.
Will be a bit embarrassing if we have a few million dead in 3-4 months and people still getting reinfected.
Personally I think we should go all out like China/Korea, if ultimately it starts to come back when measures are lifted then put the brakes on again. In 1 year we could have a vaccine, better to try and hold it at bay until then.
There’s a good video in which Patrick Vallance explains the approach being recommended by the scientific advisers to the government here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51857856
There’s already a lot of pretty lame political point scoring on this thread but the approach the government are taking seems to be evidenced based and credible.
Just because other countries are isolating now doesn’t mean they will effectively control this disease over the long term.
Dunno if this has been covered but im curious to know why on earth our Gov and Health Advisers think herd immunity is the best way to go about this
Because they have weighed up the pros and cons differently than you would.
Look I don’t care what the other countries are doing AA you’re still going to school tomorrow, now get to your room.
Bastard!
Because they have weighed up the pros and cons differently than you would.
But I think its a fair question to ask why a lot of near neighbours are doing things differently.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities?
I’m not sure they’d be much good, the vast majority of private hospitals are geared towards elective surgery not medicine as such and they tell you (via a disclaimer) if anything goes wrong while you’re at Spire / Bupa etc they’re going to call an Ambo and ship you off to the closest NHS hospital that has the right people and kit to deal with more than tit jobs, vasectomies and carpel tunnel surgery.
I thought this was alluded to in the press conference. If you close the schools then what do people do with their kids? They send them to the grandparents
I missed that bit, it does seems to have a certain logic... not sure I agree with it. Boris covered please wash your hands, if could have easily been added “don’t ship your little germ factories off to their grandparents are they’ll die”.
@kerley You're right, they appear to be holding the economy with a greater value than human lives. Also, my job is to analyse this virus and report back to the company. My team researches mortality longevity and thus monitors outbreaks of pandemics and disease etc. Many of them have never heard nor seen a Gov react to an outbreak/pandemic/illness by letting it rampage through a country...
Shut down the country and people will rebel.
Introduce a lot of complex and onerous instructions and people will ignore them
Introduce a few simple guidelines that are easy to follow and most people will follow them.
If you want people to do something you have to keep it simple.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities?
Yes is the simple answer.
The Italians say that the lock down is working for them:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51852320
France have just shut all schools.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities?
All those hospice beds are going to be useful!!!
I'm not getting drawn into the speculation and grandstanding.
What I can say is that being on the train and public spaces today there is a change of behaviour. People are waving, not shaking hands. We, and every other table, in Costa had a seat between us. People were using elbows to press train door button. Even walking across a busy pedestrian area folk seemed to be zig zagging around, not direct and close pass. Our business park is half empty - anyone who can work at home, is working from home.
Folk are washing door handles after deliveries.
Let's keep doing this. It seems reasonable and skulls help.
The Italians say that they think the lockdown is working:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51852320
Following on from Denmark shutting down last night, my customer in Norway has been advised to close up the office and everyone work from home for at least two weeks, from today. They’re a collection of 7 primary care providers.
My colleague who is on-site there this week, is heading home tomorrow, perhaps. Current rumour is that Avinor have been told to shut Oslo airport from tomorrow at some point. He’s flying to Slovakia via Vienna. He’s expecting some issues on the way in.
Public services in and around Oslo are also due to close, with other areas following suit as appropriate.
Wow! I can almost smell the fear.
What if.... it continues to mutate until we are all killed to death?
The Italians say that the lock down is working for them:
Well they would. But how do they know what would have happened if they hadn't taken these steps.
To those people pointing out that other countries have closed schools - there's also a lot of counties that haven't and stated that it's not helpful.
Those who are up in arms about what the scientists are saying (and a labour gov would be taking their advice also) - if you think that your way is better, then there's nothing stopping you from adopting your own isolation regime and leaving everyone else to get on with it. 🤷🏻♂️
In 1 year we could have a vaccine, better to try and hold it at bay until then.
So close all schools, WFH and lock-down for 12 months?
To those people pointing out that other countries have closed schools – there’s also a lot of counties that haven’t and stated that it’s not helpful.
We know that, what we want is an honest impartial explanation of why other similar countries in similar situations are doing different things.
I haven’t seen anything to suggest that closing schools would “do more hard than good” I can’t imagine why that would be the case.
Who's going to look after the kids? You'd have millions of parents having to stay home from work so you'd have shops not opening, places not being cleaned, doctors and nurses not working, food not being delivered etc etc not to mention the economic hit.
Dunno if this has been covered but im curious to know why on earth our Gov and Health Advisers think herd immunity is the best way to go about this
Maybe because most of us are being farmed - we just haven't realised it yet.
What I don't get with the economic argument for not shutting down is that the economy can be propped up. Money can be printed, debts suspended, businesses protected, people financially supported. We can treat and eventually cure a damaged economy, we can't do that with dead people. On the subject of isolation fatigue, I think they are vastly underestimating people's willingness to play their part. Behaviour has already changed massively, and those who pigheadedly refuse to change will come round once they see everyone else accepting the changes to their lives. This isn't a time to be cautious, we should be throwing the kitchen sink at it now, not in a couple of weeks time.
Maybe because most of us are being farmed – we just haven’t realised it yet
Ahh that got a chuckle, thanks i need that. Makes me think of the Matrix, batteries for the machines.
The argument for shut downs now should be that it’ll be far less damaging to the economy compared to letting this get out of hand at speed.
Jeremy Hunt is worth listening to today (never thought I’d say that).
What I don’t get with the economic argument for not shutting down is that the economy can be propped up.
I didn't know there was an economic argument?
The video in the BBC web site makes a pretty compelling argument for what they are doing.
Jeremy Hunt has just (well an hour ago, I'm on c4 +1) questioned the current proposals as to why we haven't gone further with social distancing now in an interview with Jon Snow.
Hmmm, Dom is not going to be happy...
I thought hunt actually sounded reasonable too. And possibly a little hoarse?
Yep on both counts. Worrying that he seems the voice of reason regarding the NHS...
he’ll be fine, no other health conditions to worry about.
Two words "Mike Pence". Be careful what you wish for!
Who’s going to look after the kids?
The parents? Crazy idea I know.
How many airlines and holiday companies are still going to be in business by the end of the year if this carries on?
Kuoni very quiet, we have had 2 bookings/ enquiries so far this week usually it's 10 to 20 a week at this time of the year. Marketing spend being scaled back for us and we're not spending anything unless absolutely necessary. I'm told that this is as bad or could be worse than Foot and Mouth for us.
Mike Pence? <shudders>. It’d be like having May leave no 10 and Johnson take its place.
D’oh!
Speaking of which. Nice flags. Can’t tell where they for that idea from.
[img] 
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Jeremy Hunt looks like someone who understands the full scale of what's going to happen. Scary.
Apparently IBM have asked everyone who can to work from home. That's like 20k people.
And meanwhile in America, there are politicians actually intereted in doing something...
https://twitter.com/AnnPettifor/status/1238197633145020416?s=20
jjprestidge
Member
Schools aren’t being closed (yet).
Jp
Surely will be by the end of next week.
This is a really interesting read about how one person lead to a cluster of infections.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
Apparently IBM have asked everyone who can to work from home. That’s like 20k people.
They can look after the kids then!!
Well it had to happen, Just had the notification from Jet2 that our holiday to lake Garda has been cancelled. We can claim a refund or find an alternative.
We were due to go on May 30th so still a few months away yet. Who's to know what the situation will be then, we could pick an alternative now only for the same thing to happen further down the line.
Mainly gutted for my little one, she's three. Our first holiday abroad and she's super excited, so she'll be well disappointed.
Two words “Mike Pence”. Be careful what you wish for!
isn't he also at risk of catching it as he was standing right beside trump with the infected brazilian chap and I bet they all shook hands too.
Just had the notification from Jet2 that our holiday to lake Garda has been cancelled. We can claim a refund or find an alternative.
Glad to here this as my insurance doesnt cover our holiday!!! Fingers crossed Mallorca stays safe and we can go.Hope you can get something else though.
Mainly gutted for my little one, she’s three. Our first holiday abroad and she’s super excited, so she’ll be well disappointed.
if she’s anything like my children she’ll be happy to stay at home, with a big cardboard box with a blanket draped over it. But then my children had no real concept of what abroad meant at that age (nor holidays really).
Stolen off a Facebook post:
ITALY: lockdown
CHINA: lockdown
DENMARK: lockdown
NORWAY: lockdown
IRELAND: close all schools, ban large gatherings
USA: close schools, ban all European flights
Boris Johnson: " Right, some of you are going to die, that's just the way it is, the NHS is a bit busy, don't forget the Happy Birthday hand washing thingy and good luck!"
Macron on telly just now saying that scientists are saying kids are major spreaders.
Closing schools could be a bit drastic but possibly needed. Would cause huge disruption however.
What won't cause much disruption* is stopping professional sport for a month or so, nightclubs, pubs, concerts etc etc. I struggle to see why we don't do this.
*In relative terms
Fingers crossed Mallorca stays safe and we can go.
I'm meant to be going in 3 week's. Half of me thinks sa colobra may have less tourist buses than usual, but the other half makes me think I should just stay put. I live on my own, can work from home for as long as I like. As long as I can get my food delivered I'd never need to leave the house!
I’m meant to be going in 3 week’s
Me too, we should meet up for a race up sa colobra!
The parents? Crazy idea I know.
Well I did allude to a few reasons why that isn't necessarily a good option.
Well I did allude to a few reasons why that isn’t necessarily a good option.
Why is that, dont you like your kids?
Macron on telly just now saying that scientists are saying kids are major spreaders.
Yes… but not good clean salt of the earth English kids… they’re made of stronger stuff.
What, what.
Seems pretty relevant..
Why is that, dont you like your kids?
I can work from home but many people can't, they might also have to stay home from work to look after the kids. So their jobs wouldn't get done. Are you going somewhere with this?
Anyone not yet spooked or think it’s ‘just the flu’, watch this. He’s saying it’s going to take a WWII level of collective effort to combat. If that’s true we must still be in the Chamberlain phase.
https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1235994989362110464?s=21
Hard to believe we all watched the same press conference. I may not know enough to pretend to state if I think they are right or wrong, but they did explain the downsides of school closures, early and prolonged isolation etc when asked. You can disagree with what they are doing, or why they are doing it, but the experts have tried to explain their reasoning, and at this stage, no one knows if the countries being much stricter will prove to be more successful.
Every country is gambling. We won't know who got it right for a year or two.
Surely will be by the end of next week.
^^^
Re school closures.
Yep, I’d stick a tenner on that.
The ‘government’ are passengers desperately trying to figure out which course of action makes them look least unprepared and stupid, yet stoical and ‘British’ at every juncture.
Why do do many people on here with zero qualifications or experience relative to the issue think that they know what’s best, or believe that they have some sort of magical ability to predict the future?
Please realise your own limitations and biases and STFU, unless you have something useful to add (and ‘millions will die’ is not something useful in case anyone was wondering).
JP
I can work from home but many people can’t, they might also have to stay home from work to look after the kids. So their jobs wouldn’t get done. Are you going somewhere with this?
Jobs not getting done or people dying, its a trade off! Why should the teachers be in school getting sneezed on whilst others work from home?
. I may not know enough to pretend to state if I think they are right or wrong, but they did explain the downsides of school closures, early and prolonged isolation etc when asked. You can disagree with what they are doing, or why they are doing it, but the experts have tried to explain their reasoning
I get that, but in order to have the opportunity form an opinion I'd like to understand why Macron is being told something very different? In cases of uncertainty the precautionary approach seems sensible doesnt it?